Tang Back To Baylor?

7,845 Views | 66 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Bearknuckle
IvanBear
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Crawfoso1973 said:

Big12Fan2024 said:

Stefano DiMera said:

I just want people to take a step back before someone does something stupid (vandalizes his house.. bully his kids at school etc .) and realize we've had a pretty good run and sports is cyclical at every level.

Hes earned a chance to turn it around next year.. but another season like this and the question has to be definitely asked.


I don't think anyone will have to ask any questions. I think Scott will do like Jay Wright and ride off into the sunset if there is another year like this one. For the first time in his career, he often looks drained after games when he's being interviewed. He doesn't look like he's having much fun in the new era. If he pours his soul into it again and comes up empty next year, I think he'll move on to the next phase in his life. Baylor will never have to fire Scott Drew, nor do I think Baylor would.

I couldn't agree more. CSD has seemed tired and defeated. NIL / transfer portal had destroyed what he does best which is player development over a 3-4 year period.



I really don't think NIL and the portal destroyed this for Drew. Drew destroyed this for himself. No one faults him for trying to reload in 2022 and it almost worked. But since then he's simply tried to reload the roster without room for player development in every subsequent acquisition save maybe Rob Wright. We've been an aging roster of one and done freshmen and one and done seniors. Neither of those paths have ever lead to national championship success unless you're that one year for Calipari at Kentucky.


Drew clearly has an eye for talent because he keeps spotting lottery picks at like 13 years old and does a good job recruiting them. But he needs to be spotting more guys like Mitchell, Acy, Teague, Vital, Flagler, Kevin Rodgers, heck even Bridges. And he needs to spot them and invest in them after their freshman season or in high school not bringing in juniors or seniors or one and done freshman to fill the 8 man rotation every year.

It's the annual recruiting of bums like Nunn and Celestine or building a starting five primarily on one year seniors like Dennis that is killing us. One or two finishing pieces like a Dennis or a Omier is awesome, like the role Akinjo played in 2022 is the ideal (we win with no injury that year). Instead though Drew is doing this in reverse his roster is centralized on an Omier or Akinjo type guy and then tries to plug holes around them. You need a solid roster where those guys can come plug and play to push a good team to great not a non existent team to okay or good.
Crawfoso1973
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Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.
Guitarbiscuit
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IvanBear said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Big12Fan2024 said:

Stefano DiMera said:

I just want people to take a step back before someone does something stupid (vandalizes his house.. bully his kids at school etc .) and realize we've had a pretty good run and sports is cyclical at every level.

Hes earned a chance to turn it around next year.. but another season like this and the question has to be definitely asked.


I don't think anyone will have to ask any questions. I think Scott will do like Jay Wright and ride off into the sunset if there is another year like this one. For the first time in his career, he often looks drained after games when he's being interviewed. He doesn't look like he's having much fun in the new era. If he pours his soul into it again and comes up empty next year, I think he'll move on to the next phase in his life. Baylor will never have to fire Scott Drew, nor do I think Baylor would.

I couldn't agree more. CSD has seemed tired and defeated. NIL / transfer portal had destroyed what he does best which is player development over a 3-4 year period.



I really don't think NIL and the portal destroyed this for Drew. Drew destroyed this for himself. No one faults him for trying to reload in 2022 and it almost worked. But since then he's simply tried to reload the roster without room for player development in every subsequent acquisition save maybe Rob Wright. We've been an aging roster of one and done freshmen and one and done seniors. Neither of those paths have ever lead to national championship success unless you're that one year for Calipari at Kentucky.


Drew clearly has an eye for talent because he keeps spotting lottery picks at like 13 years old and does a good job recruiting them. But he needs to be spotting more guys like Mitchell, Acy, Teague, Vital, Flagler, Kevin Rodgers, heck even Bridges. And he needs to spot them and invest in them after their freshman season or in high school not bringing in juniors or seniors or one and done freshman to fill the 8 man rotation every year.

It's the annual recruiting of bums like Nunn and Celestine or building a starting five primarily on one year seniors like Dennis that is killing us. One or two finishing pieces like a Dennis or a Omier is awesome, like the role Akinjo played in 2022 is the ideal (we win with no injury that year). Instead though Drew is doing this in reverse his roster is centralized on an Omier or Akinjo type guy and then tries to plug holes around them. You need a solid roster where those guys can come plug and play to push a good team to great not a non existent team to okay or good.


I think this is a good synopsis of what Drew needs to do-namely player development.

But anyalyzing it a bit more-it probably won't be easy. Now, it is apparent that if we do get a top player, he will likely be lured away by both the draft (always been a threat) and more money (recent threat but big one). Our chances of even landing those very top one and done players is slim. We used to be able to get to the 2nd round with this system, which is not great but beats missing the tournament altogether. So this flawed recruiting strategy of Drew's won't even work as well as it did, and even then it was flawed.

The only solution seems to find under the radar kids who are 3 star recruits and develop them. Then, perhaps in their 3rd and 4th years of development, pepper in a couple of high priced transfers.

This new solution may well mean that we miss the tournament altogether for a couple years but that we also make a run every three years or so.

This might be the only way forward. If we had greater NIL funds, we could probably continue with the "reload every year" strategy and would have been able to keep the likes of Rob Wright.
IvanBear
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I just reject this outright, Iowa State is far better has far more talent and less NIL. Houston is far better similar NIL and far more talent.

We just suck at scheme, talent evaluation for development, and managing our cap. I don't think we play a brand of basketball that you can sell anyone besides mercenaries on. Drew is good at finding talent but not talent to develop right now (he used to be good at this). We don't structure our budget and roster in a way to balance paying guys for development and getting production. Drew recruits like he's got an infinite pocket book then runs out of money when it comes time to spending to get a guy with promise. What happened with Wright is awful and should have been punishable. It also shows we misvalued his contract value I'm positive there are other teams that would have paid him more than we did, our GM is not good.

Drew used to use the portal all the time. Some of our best players pre NIL were transfers, he knows how to scout talent or at least he used to have assistants that did. Either way all NIL and the portal did is give Drew to the freedom to not have any discipline on running the recruiting side of the program.

Plenty of teams are retaining top players and putting out great teams with less money than us we clearly have been able to afford to be in that sphere considering those one and dones aren't taking discounts to come here.
tmcats
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the drift of this thread is much like i saw as klieman signaled hanging it up. and drew's body language is much like klieman's as well. coincidence, idk?
Bruisers Burner Phone
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BUBradley said:



I Need Someone To Understand About Capitalization.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.

I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman on the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown ass men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-playing teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.
Robert Wilson
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bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.
I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman in the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown as men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-plying teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.


That basketball team was a good example of the Cignetti approach before anybody much knew about Cignetti. But it also appears that we did not have the ability to evaluate and autopsy that team and understand why it was so good, because he said we immediately abandoned that approach.
bear2be2
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IvanBear said:

I just reject this outright, Iowa State is far better has far more talent and less NIL. Houston is far better similar NIL and far more talent.

We just suck at scheme, talent evaluation for development, and managing our cap. I don't think we play a brand of basketball that you can sell anyone besides mercenaries on. Drew is good at finding talent but not talent to develop right now (he used to be good at this). We don't structure our budget and roster in a way to balance paying guys for development and getting production. Drew recruits like he's got an infinite pocket book then runs out of money when it comes time to spending to get a guy with promise. What happened with Wright is awful and should have been punishable. It also shows we misvalued his contract value I'm positive there are other teams that would have paid him more than we did, our GM is not good.

Drew used to use the portal all the time. Some of our best players pre NIL were transfers, he knows how to scout talent or at least he used to have assistants that did. Either way all NIL and the portal did is give Drew to the freedom to not have any discipline on running the recruiting side of the program.

Plenty of teams are retaining top players and putting out great teams with less money than us we clearly have been able to afford to be in that sphere considering those one and dones aren't taking discounts to come here.

The biggest thing Scott Drew's teams need is guys who bring defensive ability and intensity with them to college, because the only times we've ever played good defense under Drew have been when the players were the standard-setters.

What we've learned the last four years is that this program has no defensive standard whatsoever. Our defensive effort and execution are consistently embarrassing. Guys in other programs would be getting benched for playing the way our guys do nightly.

In the absence of a program standard, we need to do a better job of attracting blue-collar defensive talent because we're not going to develop it.
Guitarbiscuit
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bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.

I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman on the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown ass men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-plying teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.


Well said. Superficial.
Crawfoso1973
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bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.

I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman on the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown ass men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-playing teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.

I am not letting Drew off the hook. Our situation is fully the responsibility of CSD. But recruiting individual one-and-done freshmen didn't create the situation we are in now. This abyssmal season is a product of CSD's approach to the portal.

Below are our one-and-done freshmen aka are our "shiny, superficial objects" post-Natty:

2022 - Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown
2023 - Keyonte George
2024 - Jakobe Walter, Missi
2025 - VJ Edgecombe

VJ was spectacular, Missi and Sochan were excellent. None of the others have anything to do with why our program is where it is right now.

Last year's disastorous roster construction wasn't due to recruiting VJ Edgecombe who carried our team btw. It was because outside of VJ, Omier and Wright the rest of our roster was abyssmal. Drew needs to figure out how to manage the portal in this day and age. Bring back Isaac Williams and go recruit some portal players with eligibility remaining to build around.

If he can't or won't figure it out, I agree he needs to step aside. He simply might be too tired and burned out to continue. This offseason and his approach to the portal will be very telling.


IvanBear
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Crawfoso1973 said:

bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.

I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman on the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown ass men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-playing teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.

I am not letting Drew off the hook. Our situation is fully the responsibility of CSD. But recruiting individual one-and-done freshmen didn't create the situation we are in now. This abyssmal season is a product of CSD's approach to the portal.

Below are our one-and-done freshmen aka are our "shiny, superficial objects" post-Natty:

2022 - Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown
2023 - Keyonte George
2024 - Jakobe Walter, Missi
2025 - VJ Edgecombe

VJ was spectacular, Missi and Sochan were excellent. None of the others have anything to do with why our program is where it is right now.

Last year's disastorous roster construction wasn't due to recruiting VJ Edgecombe who carried our team btw. It was because outside of VJ, Omier and Wright the rest of our roster was abyssmal. Drew needs to figure out how to manage the portal in this day and age. Bring back Isaac Williams and go recruit some portal players with eligibility remaining to build around.

If he can't or won't figure it out, I agree he needs to step aside. He simply might be too tired and burned out to continue. This offseason and his approach to the portal will be very telling.





That's the point when you recruit three one and dones you're not going to win it all, you're going to run out of money to fill out the rest of the roster, you're going to run out of recruiting time and resources to scout the rest of the team, and you screw yourself over for the next year.
bear2be2
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IvanBear said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.

I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman on the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown ass men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-playing teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.

I am not letting Drew off the hook. Our situation is fully the responsibility of CSD. But recruiting individual one-and-done freshmen didn't create the situation we are in now. This abyssmal season is a product of CSD's approach to the portal.

Below are our one-and-done freshmen aka are our "shiny, superficial objects" post-Natty:

2022 - Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown
2023 - Keyonte George
2024 - Jakobe Walter, Missi
2025 - VJ Edgecombe

VJ was spectacular, Missi and Sochan were excellent. None of the others have anything to do with why our program is where it is right now.

Last year's disastorous roster construction wasn't due to recruiting VJ Edgecombe who carried our team btw. It was because outside of VJ, Omier and Wright the rest of our roster was abyssmal. Drew needs to figure out how to manage the portal in this day and age. Bring back Isaac Williams and go recruit some portal players with eligibility remaining to build around.

If he can't or won't figure it out, I agree he needs to step aside. He simply might be too tired and burned out to continue. This offseason and his approach to the portal will be very telling.





That's the point when you recruit three one and dones you're not going to win it all, you're going to run out of money to fill out the rest of the roster, you're going to run out of recruiting time and resources to scout the rest of the team, and you screw yourself over for the next year.

And not only this, but every player you recruit for one year leaves a roster hole the next season. When you combine the one-and-done freshmen with senior transfers, you end up with zero continuity year to year. Do this enough times in a row and the bottom falls completely out as it did last offseason and this season.

Our entire recruiting strategy since the title has been one quick fix after another. Nothing is ever being built in Waco these days. We're building a roster with Flex Seal ... and its working about as well as one would imagine.
Crawfoso1973
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IvanBear said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.

I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman on the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown ass men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-playing teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.

I am not letting Drew off the hook. Our situation is fully the responsibility of CSD. But recruiting individual one-and-done freshmen didn't create the situation we are in now. This abyssmal season is a product of CSD's approach to the portal.

Below are our one-and-done freshmen aka are our "shiny, superficial objects" post-Natty:

2022 - Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown
2023 - Keyonte George
2024 - Jakobe Walter, Missi
2025 - VJ Edgecombe

VJ was spectacular, Missi and Sochan were excellent. None of the others have anything to do with why our program is where it is right now.

Last year's disastorous roster construction wasn't due to recruiting VJ Edgecombe who carried our team btw. It was because outside of VJ, Omier and Wright the rest of our roster was abyssmal. Drew needs to figure out how to manage the portal in this day and age. Bring back Isaac Williams and go recruit some portal players with eligibility remaining to build around.

If he can't or won't figure it out, I agree he needs to step aside. He simply might be too tired and burned out to continue. This offseason and his approach to the portal will be very telling.





That's the point when you recruit three one and dones you're not going to win it all, you're going to run out of money to fill out the rest of the roster, you're going to run out of recruiting time and resources to scout the rest of the team, and you screw yourself over for the next year.


Don't disagree. We gotta get off the treadmill of senior and grad transfers. Especially the ones like Roach and Rataj who suck at basketball.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

IvanBear said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

Clearly the portal is why he started recruiting the way he has the last couple years. If you don't see that, IDK what to tell you.

I think you're letting him of the hook too easily.

We didn't have a single elite freshman on the title team or on any of the teams leading up to its formation. We were developing under recruited guys and building tough teams of grown ass men.

The second we won the title, he went right back to chasing five-star freshmen and was back to putting soft, finesse, no-defense-playing teams on the court by 2023.

Scott reached his highest heights in spite of himself. Because the second he could start chasing shiny, superficial objects again, he did.

I am not letting Drew off the hook. Our situation is fully the responsibility of CSD. But recruiting individual one-and-done freshmen didn't create the situation we are in now. This abyssmal season is a product of CSD's approach to the portal.

Below are our one-and-done freshmen aka are our "shiny, superficial objects" post-Natty:

2022 - Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown
2023 - Keyonte George
2024 - Jakobe Walter, Missi
2025 - VJ Edgecombe

VJ was spectacular, Missi and Sochan were excellent. None of the others have anything to do with why our program is where it is right now.

Last year's disastorous roster construction wasn't due to recruiting VJ Edgecombe who carried our team btw. It was because outside of VJ, Omier and Wright the rest of our roster was abyssmal. Drew needs to figure out how to manage the portal in this day and age. Bring back Isaac Williams and go recruit some portal players with eligibility remaining to build around.

If he can't or won't figure it out, I agree he needs to step aside. He simply might be too tired and burned out to continue. This offseason and his approach to the portal will be very telling.





That's the point when you recruit three one and dones you're not going to win it all, you're going to run out of money to fill out the rest of the roster, you're going to run out of recruiting time and resources to scout the rest of the team, and you screw yourself over for the next year.


Don't disagree. We gotta get off the treadmill of senior and grad transfers. Especially the ones like Roach and Rataj who suck at basketball.

You're almost there.

One-year players in general are bad business in college basketball. You're just spending a ton of money for very little return -- unless, of course, you find value in bragging about first-round draft picks and NBA players while topping out at the second round of the tournament.
Crawfoso1973
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VJ was our only one and done freshman last year. Try again.
BabyJBear
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Sochan and EJ were expected to be around in 2022-2023. Does anyone think that team would've been soft with those guys on it? Was Keynote George entirely to blame for that team's defensive issues? I seem to recall "under the radar" guys Flagler and Cryer being deficient in that department as well.

I don't disagree that Drew and his staff have majorly whiffed on some of their talent evaluations the last few years. But it's just too simplistic to blame this program's recent struggles on the strategy of going after OADs. The events that led to the championship team are not replicable. There's a good chance that team would've split up had Covid not shut down the 2020 tournament. The fact we were able to return that much experience and talentwhich would never happen today in the portal erawas just plain lucky. Strategy had very little to do with it.

I've enjoyed watching Keynote, Jakobe, Missi, VJ, and Tounde play for Baylor. Any of their teams could've been way better with 1-2 roster additions that we easily could have afforded. Imagine if we grabbed Javon Small out of the portal last year instead of Jeremy Roach, and spent the rest of the money on a backup center (hell, we could've had Caden Powell). Or if this year's team had Rob Wright and a Joshua Jefferson type player instead of Rataj. Yes, Drew and his staff are to blame for these misses. But the problem does not start with the OADs.
bear2be2
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BabyJBear said:

Sochan and EJ were expected to be around in 2022-2023. Does anyone think that team would've been soft with those guys on it? Was Keynote George entirely to blame for that team's defensive issues? I seem to recall "under the radar" guys Flagler and Cryer being deficient in that department as well.

I don't disagree that Drew and his staff have majorly whiffed on some of their talent evaluations the last few years. But it's just too simplistic to blame this program's recent struggles on the strategy of going after OADs. The events that led to the championship team are not replicable. There's a good chance that team would've split up had Covid not shut down the 2020 tournament. The fact we were able to return that much experience and talentwhich would never happen today in the portal erawas just plain lucky. Strategy had very little to do with it.

I've enjoyed watching Keynote, Jakobe, Missi, VJ, and Tounde play for Baylor. Any of their teams could've been way better with 1-2 roster additions that we easily could have afforded. Imagine if we grabbed Javon Small out of the portal last year instead of Jeremy Roach, and spent the rest of the money on a backup center (hell, we could've had Caden Powell). Or if this year's team had Rob Wright and a Joshua Jefferson type player instead of Rataj. Yes, Drew and his staff are to blame for these misses. But the problem does not start with the OADs.
One-and-dones aren't explicitly the problem, but they're also not part of the solution. One-and-dones don't win in college basketball -- at least not with the usage rates that ours consistently have.

The four best freshmen in the history of the Big 12 (Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Trae Young and Cade Cunningham) all made first-weekend exits in their one college season, and we're expecting worse players to carry us to glory with largely ****ty supporting casts. It's a fool's errand.

And it's made more foolish by the fact that we have a head coach who is notoriously soft on those players and allows them to make the same mistakes all season long without any recourse or accountability. It would be one thing if we had a guy like Kelvin Sampson or Danny Hurley forcing those guys into the best roles for the team. But we have a coach who is content to run a showcase program so he can brag about the draft picks on the back end.

Not counting Sochan and Missi, who were overachievers in right-sized roles, the only five-star recruit we've ever managed correctly was Quincy Miller. And it's not a coincidence that he's the only one we've ever had that was part of a deep tournament run. He was the fourth or fifth option on his team, not the first or second as Perry Jones, Isaiah Austin, Keyonte George, JaKobe Walter, VJ Edgecombe and Tounde Yessoufou all were asked and allowed to be.

Kendall Brown was also a role player, and his team could have made a deep run had it not been for some injuries and a historically bad tournament draw. But he was also pretty much a non-factor by the end of his one season in Waco, so it's hard to hype his time at Baylor as a success story.
Crawfoso1973
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bear2be2 said:

BabyJBear said:

Sochan and EJ were expected to be around in 2022-2023. Does anyone think that team would've been soft with those guys on it? Was Keynote George entirely to blame for that team's defensive issues? I seem to recall "under the radar" guys Flagler and Cryer being deficient in that department as well.

I don't disagree that Drew and his staff have majorly whiffed on some of their talent evaluations the last few years. But it's just too simplistic to blame this program's recent struggles on the strategy of going after OADs. The events that led to the championship team are not replicable. There's a good chance that team would've split up had Covid not shut down the 2020 tournament. The fact we were able to return that much experience and talentwhich would never happen today in the portal erawas just plain lucky. Strategy had very little to do with it.

I've enjoyed watching Keynote, Jakobe, Missi, VJ, and Tounde play for Baylor. Any of their teams could've been way better with 1-2 roster additions that we easily could have afforded. Imagine if we grabbed Javon Small out of the portal last year instead of Jeremy Roach, and spent the rest of the money on a backup center (hell, we could've had Caden Powell). Or if this year's team had Rob Wright and a Joshua Jefferson type player instead of Rataj. Yes, Drew and his staff are to blame for these misses. But the problem does not start with the OADs.

One-and-dones aren't explicitly the problem, but they're also not part of the solution. One-and-dones don't win in college basketball -- at least not with the usage rates that ours consistently have.

The four best freshmen in the history of the Big 12 (Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Trae Young and Cade Cunningham) all made first-weekend exits in their one college season, and we're expecting worse players to carry us to glory with largely ****ty supporting casts. It's a fool's errand.

And it's made more foolish by the fact that we have a head coach who is notoriously soft on those players and allows them to make the same mistakes all season long without any recourse or accountability. It would be one thing if we had a guy like Kelvin Sampson or Danny Hurley forcing those guys into the best roles for the team. But we have a coach who is content to run a showcase program so he can brag about the draft picks on the back end.

Not counting Sochan and Missi, who were overachievers in right-sized roles, the only five-star recruit we've ever managed correctly was Quincy Miller. And it's not a coincidence that he's the only one we've ever had that was part of a deep tournament run. He was the fourth or fifth option on his team, not the first or second as Perry Jones, Isaiah Austin, Keyonte George, JaKobe Walter, VJ Edgecombe and Tounde Yessoufou all were asked and allowed to be.

Kendall Brown was also a role player, and his team could have made a deep run had it not been for some injuries and a historically bad tournament draw. But he was also pretty much a non-factor by the end of his one season in Waco, so it's hard to hype his time at Baylor as a success story.

Did you even watch us play last year? VJ was efficient and spectacular on both ends of the floor. VJ (and Omier) absolutely carried us to the 2nd round of the tournament despite the garbage team built around them. I know that doesn't fit your narrative though.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

bear2be2 said:

BabyJBear said:

Sochan and EJ were expected to be around in 2022-2023. Does anyone think that team would've been soft with those guys on it? Was Keynote George entirely to blame for that team's defensive issues? I seem to recall "under the radar" guys Flagler and Cryer being deficient in that department as well.

I don't disagree that Drew and his staff have majorly whiffed on some of their talent evaluations the last few years. But it's just too simplistic to blame this program's recent struggles on the strategy of going after OADs. The events that led to the championship team are not replicable. There's a good chance that team would've split up had Covid not shut down the 2020 tournament. The fact we were able to return that much experience and talentwhich would never happen today in the portal erawas just plain lucky. Strategy had very little to do with it.

I've enjoyed watching Keynote, Jakobe, Missi, VJ, and Tounde play for Baylor. Any of their teams could've been way better with 1-2 roster additions that we easily could have afforded. Imagine if we grabbed Javon Small out of the portal last year instead of Jeremy Roach, and spent the rest of the money on a backup center (hell, we could've had Caden Powell). Or if this year's team had Rob Wright and a Joshua Jefferson type player instead of Rataj. Yes, Drew and his staff are to blame for these misses. But the problem does not start with the OADs.

One-and-dones aren't explicitly the problem, but they're also not part of the solution. One-and-dones don't win in college basketball -- at least not with the usage rates that ours consistently have.

The four best freshmen in the history of the Big 12 (Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Trae Young and Cade Cunningham) all made first-weekend exits in their one college season, and we're expecting worse players to carry us to glory with largely ****ty supporting casts. It's a fool's errand.

And it's made more foolish by the fact that we have a head coach who is notoriously soft on those players and allows them to make the same mistakes all season long without any recourse or accountability. It would be one thing if we had a guy like Kelvin Sampson or Danny Hurley forcing those guys into the best roles for the team. But we have a coach who is content to run a showcase program so he can brag about the draft picks on the back end.

Not counting Sochan and Missi, who were overachievers in right-sized roles, the only five-star recruit we've ever managed correctly was Quincy Miller. And it's not a coincidence that he's the only one we've ever had that was part of a deep tournament run. He was the fourth or fifth option on his team, not the first or second as Perry Jones, Isaiah Austin, Keyonte George, JaKobe Walter, VJ Edgecombe and Tounde Yessoufou all were asked and allowed to be.

Kendall Brown was also a role player, and his team could have made a deep run had it not been for some injuries and a historically bad tournament draw. But he was also pretty much a non-factor by the end of his one season in Waco, so it's hard to hype his time at Baylor as a success story.

Did you even watch us play last year? VJ was efficient and spectacular on both ends of the floor. VJ (and Omier) absolutely carried us to the 2nd round of the tournament despite the garbage team built around them. I know that doesn't fit your narrative though.
VJ was great, but he wasn't good enough as a freshman to carry an otherwise bad team, which is my point.

None of our freshmen have been bad. They're just not nearly good enough to be alphas on championship teams. Yet we continue to recruit them every year and place them into roles where they have to be.

I want my alpha(s) to be juniors and seniors and my freshmen to be role players. Outside of one historic run by Kentucky, history says that's how you win with one-and-done freshmen.

You also need other quality role players around those guys, something we've done a ****ty job of attracting since 2022, likely because an outsized portion of our budget is going to acquire freshmen we can brag about when they're drafted.

But at this point, I don't see how anyone can say that our one-and-done recruiting strategy has been anything but a failure. It was when we were topping out in the round of 32 every year and it damn sure is now that we're failing to reach the postseason altogether. These freshman players you love to hype every year don't win in college basketball. Grown men do.
Crawfoso1973
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You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.
Robert Wilson
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Crawfoso1973 said:

You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.

It's not the freshmen per se, but it is the expectations / role / cost of those freshmen and the impact that has on the rest of your roster.
BUBBFAN
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bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

bear2be2 said:

BabyJBear said:

Sochan and EJ were expected to be around in 2022-2023. Does anyone think that team would've been soft with those guys on it? Was Keynote George entirely to blame for that team's defensive issues? I seem to recall "under the radar" guys Flagler and Cryer being deficient in that department as well.

I don't disagree that Drew and his staff have majorly whiffed on some of their talent evaluations the last few years. But it's just too simplistic to blame this program's recent struggles on the strategy of going after OADs. The events that led to the championship team are not replicable. There's a good chance that team would've split up had Covid not shut down the 2020 tournament. The fact we were able to return that much experience and talentwhich would never happen today in the portal erawas just plain lucky. Strategy had very little to do with it.

I've enjoyed watching Keynote, Jakobe, Missi, VJ, and Tounde play for Baylor. Any of their teams could've been way better with 1-2 roster additions that we easily could have afforded. Imagine if we grabbed Javon Small out of the portal last year instead of Jeremy Roach, and spent the rest of the money on a backup center (hell, we could've had Caden Powell). Or if this year's team had Rob Wright and a Joshua Jefferson type player instead of Rataj. Yes, Drew and his staff are to blame for these misses. But the problem does not start with the OADs.

One-and-dones aren't explicitly the problem, but they're also not part of the solution. One-and-dones don't win in college basketball -- at least not with the usage rates that ours consistently have.

The four best freshmen in the history of the Big 12 (Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Trae Young and Cade Cunningham) all made first-weekend exits in their one college season, and we're expecting worse players to carry us to glory with largely ****ty supporting casts. It's a fool's errand.

And it's made more foolish by the fact that we have a head coach who is notoriously soft on those players and allows them to make the same mistakes all season long without any recourse or accountability. It would be one thing if we had a guy like Kelvin Sampson or Danny Hurley forcing those guys into the best roles for the team. But we have a coach who is content to run a showcase program so he can brag about the draft picks on the back end.

Not counting Sochan and Missi, who were overachievers in right-sized roles, the only five-star recruit we've ever managed correctly was Quincy Miller. And it's not a coincidence that he's the only one we've ever had that was part of a deep tournament run. He was the fourth or fifth option on his team, not the first or second as Perry Jones, Isaiah Austin, Keyonte George, JaKobe Walter, VJ Edgecombe and Tounde Yessoufou all were asked and allowed to be.

Kendall Brown was also a role player, and his team could have made a deep run had it not been for some injuries and a historically bad tournament draw. But he was also pretty much a non-factor by the end of his one season in Waco, so it's hard to hype his time at Baylor as a success story.

Did you even watch us play last year? VJ was efficient and spectacular on both ends of the floor. VJ (and Omier) absolutely carried us to the 2nd round of the tournament despite the garbage team built around them. I know that doesn't fit your narrative though.

VJ was great, but he wasn't good enough as a freshman to carry an otherwise bad team, which is my point.

None of our freshmen have been bad. They're just not nearly good enough to be alphas on championship teams. Yet we continue to recruit them every year and place them into roles where they have to be.

I want my alpha(s) to be juniors and seniors and my freshmen to be role players. Outside of one historic run by Kentucky, history says that's how you win with one-and-done freshmen.

You also need other quality role players around those guys, something we've done a ****ty job of attracting since 2022, likely because an outsized portion of our budget is going to acquire freshmen we can brag about when they're drafted.

But at this point, I don't see how anyone can say that our one-and-done recruiting strategy has been anything but a failure. It was when we were topping out in the round of 32 every year and it damn sure is now that we're failing to reach the postseason altogether. These freshman players you love to hype every year don't win in college basketball. Grown men do.

Michigan with the Fab Five.
Robert Wilson
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BUBBFAN said:

bear2be2 said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

bear2be2 said:

BabyJBear said:

Sochan and EJ were expected to be around in 2022-2023. Does anyone think that team would've been soft with those guys on it? Was Keynote George entirely to blame for that team's defensive issues? I seem to recall "under the radar" guys Flagler and Cryer being deficient in that department as well.

I don't disagree that Drew and his staff have majorly whiffed on some of their talent evaluations the last few years. But it's just too simplistic to blame this program's recent struggles on the strategy of going after OADs. The events that led to the championship team are not replicable. There's a good chance that team would've split up had Covid not shut down the 2020 tournament. The fact we were able to return that much experience and talentwhich would never happen today in the portal erawas just plain lucky. Strategy had very little to do with it.

I've enjoyed watching Keynote, Jakobe, Missi, VJ, and Tounde play for Baylor. Any of their teams could've been way better with 1-2 roster additions that we easily could have afforded. Imagine if we grabbed Javon Small out of the portal last year instead of Jeremy Roach, and spent the rest of the money on a backup center (hell, we could've had Caden Powell). Or if this year's team had Rob Wright and a Joshua Jefferson type player instead of Rataj. Yes, Drew and his staff are to blame for these misses. But the problem does not start with the OADs.

One-and-dones aren't explicitly the problem, but they're also not part of the solution. One-and-dones don't win in college basketball -- at least not with the usage rates that ours consistently have.

The four best freshmen in the history of the Big 12 (Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Trae Young and Cade Cunningham) all made first-weekend exits in their one college season, and we're expecting worse players to carry us to glory with largely ****ty supporting casts. It's a fool's errand.

And it's made more foolish by the fact that we have a head coach who is notoriously soft on those players and allows them to make the same mistakes all season long without any recourse or accountability. It would be one thing if we had a guy like Kelvin Sampson or Danny Hurley forcing those guys into the best roles for the team. But we have a coach who is content to run a showcase program so he can brag about the draft picks on the back end.

Not counting Sochan and Missi, who were overachievers in right-sized roles, the only five-star recruit we've ever managed correctly was Quincy Miller. And it's not a coincidence that he's the only one we've ever had that was part of a deep tournament run. He was the fourth or fifth option on his team, not the first or second as Perry Jones, Isaiah Austin, Keyonte George, JaKobe Walter, VJ Edgecombe and Tounde Yessoufou all were asked and allowed to be.

Kendall Brown was also a role player, and his team could have made a deep run had it not been for some injuries and a historically bad tournament draw. But he was also pretty much a non-factor by the end of his one season in Waco, so it's hard to hype his time at Baylor as a success story.

Did you even watch us play last year? VJ was efficient and spectacular on both ends of the floor. VJ (and Omier) absolutely carried us to the 2nd round of the tournament despite the garbage team built around them. I know that doesn't fit your narrative though.

VJ was great, but he wasn't good enough as a freshman to carry an otherwise bad team, which is my point.

None of our freshmen have been bad. They're just not nearly good enough to be alphas on championship teams. Yet we continue to recruit them every year and place them into roles where they have to be.

I want my alpha(s) to be juniors and seniors and my freshmen to be role players. Outside of one historic run by Kentucky, history says that's how you win with one-and-done freshmen.

You also need other quality role players around those guys, something we've done a ****ty job of attracting since 2022, likely because an outsized portion of our budget is going to acquire freshmen we can brag about when they're drafted.

But at this point, I don't see how anyone can say that our one-and-done recruiting strategy has been anything but a failure. It was when we were topping out in the round of 32 every year and it damn sure is now that we're failing to reach the postseason altogether. These freshman players you love to hype every year don't win in college basketball. Grown men do.

Michigan with the Fab Five.

That kinda makes the point. Look at that lineup. Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, Ray Jackson

If you can land those 5 guys at the same time, I say go ahead.
bear2be2
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Robert Wilson said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.

It's not the freshmen per se, but it is the expectations / role / cost of those freshmen and the impact that has on the rest of your roster.
Exactly. As I said before, the freshmen aren't explicitly the problem. But they're decidedly and demonstrably not part of the solution either.

With five-star freshmen, the juice just isn't worth the squeeze, especially in our program, where those guys are consistently allowed more freedom than is good for them.
Bearknuckle
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bear2be2 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.

It's not the freshmen per se, but it is the expectations / role / cost of those freshmen and the impact that has on the rest of your roster.

Exactly. As I said before, the freshmen aren't explicitly the problem. But they're decidedly and demonstrably not part of the solution either.

With five-star freshmen, the juice just isn't worth the squeeze, especially in our program, where those guys are consistently allowed more freedom than is good for them.

lolwut. What could you possibly mean by "more freedom than is good for them"?

We haven't had a single one-and-done get into trouble off the court, and they've all been high draft picks going back to Keyonte (George, Walter, Missi, Edgecombe).

Are you saying that if 'properly' handled, each of them would have been drafted even higher?
bear2be2
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Bearknuckle said:

bear2be2 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.

It's not the freshmen per se, but it is the expectations / role / cost of those freshmen and the impact that has on the rest of your roster.

Exactly. As I said before, the freshmen aren't explicitly the problem. But they're decidedly and demonstrably not part of the solution either.

With five-star freshmen, the juice just isn't worth the squeeze, especially in our program, where those guys are consistently allowed more freedom than is good for them.

lolwut. What could you possibly mean by "more freedom than is good for them"?

We haven't had a single one-and-done get into trouble off the court, and they've all been high draft picks going back to Keyonte (George, Walter, Missi, Edgecombe).

Are you saying that if 'properly' handled, each of them would have been drafted even higher?

If they were properly handled they might have actually won something in college, which (as a Baylor basketball fan) is literally all I care about.

But to your point, yes, most of them would have been drafted higher. Perry Jones and Isaiah Austin both had to come back for a sophomore year after being projected as first rounders out of high school. Quincy Miler and Kendall Brown both fell to the second round. And both Keyonte George and Ja'Kobe Walter fell to the mid to late first round after being projected as lottery picks.

Outside of Sochan and Missi, who played their way into their draft slots by overachieving as key role players, only Edgecombe was drafted as highly as he was projected to be coming out of high school.

So let's not pretend like our track record with these guys is great. Almost all of the "can't miss" guys were overexposed at Baylor and saw their draft stock drop as a result. Virtually all would have been better off if they were used the way that Jalen Suggs (5th overall pick) was at Gonzaga, Stephon Castle (4th overall pick) was at UConn or Chris Cenac is currently being used at Houston -- as third or fourth options on veteran teams.

Discipline isn't a bad thing. And history suggests a right-sized role as a freshman helps those players' draft stock far more than the freedom to overexpose their weaknesses does.
Stefano DiMera
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Freedom on the court

Not off.. being held accountable by sitting their ass when they F up.
bear2be2
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Stefano DiMera said:

Freedom on the court

Not off.. being held accountable by sitting their ass when they F up.

I thought that was pretty obvious.
Bearknuckle
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bear2be2 said:

Bearknuckle said:

bear2be2 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.

It's not the freshmen per se, but it is the expectations / role / cost of those freshmen and the impact that has on the rest of your roster.

Exactly. As I said before, the freshmen aren't explicitly the problem. But they're decidedly and demonstrably not part of the solution either.

With five-star freshmen, the juice just isn't worth the squeeze, especially in our program, where those guys are consistently allowed more freedom than is good for them.

lolwut. What could you possibly mean by "more freedom than is good for them"?

We haven't had a single one-and-done get into trouble off the court, and they've all been high draft picks going back to Keyonte (George, Walter, Missi, Edgecombe).

Are you saying that if 'properly' handled, each of them would have been drafted even higher?

If they were properly handled they might have actually won something in college, which (as a Baylor basketball fan) is literally all I care about.

But to your point, yes, most of them would have been drafted higher. Perry Jones and Isaiah Austin both had to come back for a sophomore year after being projected as first rounders out of high school. Quincy Miler and Kendall Brown both fell to the second round. And both Keyonte George and Ja'Kobe Walter both fell to the mid to late first round after being projected as lottery picks.

Outside of Sochan and Missi, who played their way into their draft slots by overachieving as key role players, only Edgecombe was drafted as highly as he was projected to be coming out of high school.

So let's not pretend like our track record with these guys is great. Almost all of the "can't miss" guys were overexposed at Baylor and saw their draft stock drop as a result. Virtually all would have been better off if they were used the way that Jalen Suggs (5th overall pick) was at Gonzaga, Stephon Castle (4th overall pick) was at UConn or Chris Cenac is currently being used at Houston.

Discipline isn't a bad thing. And history suggests a right-sized role as a freshman helps those players' draft stock far more than the freedom to overexpose their weaknesses does.

Well we all know that projection =/= guarantee. It seems to me your criticism about hit rate is true of every One & Done heavy program to some degree.

that said, I certainly don't know enough about CBB/NBA draft history to challenge this assertion: "And history suggests a right-sized role as a freshman helps those players' draft stock far more than the freedom to overexpose their weaknesses does." Seems like a longform post about this would be great for other fans to read (not being snarky!).
bear2be2
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Bearknuckle said:

bear2be2 said:

Bearknuckle said:

bear2be2 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.

It's not the freshmen per se, but it is the expectations / role / cost of those freshmen and the impact that has on the rest of your roster.

Exactly. As I said before, the freshmen aren't explicitly the problem. But they're decidedly and demonstrably not part of the solution either.

With five-star freshmen, the juice just isn't worth the squeeze, especially in our program, where those guys are consistently allowed more freedom than is good for them.

lolwut. What could you possibly mean by "more freedom than is good for them"?

We haven't had a single one-and-done get into trouble off the court, and they've all been high draft picks going back to Keyonte (George, Walter, Missi, Edgecombe).

Are you saying that if 'properly' handled, each of them would have been drafted even higher?

If they were properly handled they might have actually won something in college, which (as a Baylor basketball fan) is literally all I care about.

But to your point, yes, most of them would have been drafted higher. Perry Jones and Isaiah Austin both had to come back for a sophomore year after being projected as first rounders out of high school. Quincy Miler and Kendall Brown both fell to the second round. And both Keyonte George and Ja'Kobe Walter both fell to the mid to late first round after being projected as lottery picks.

Outside of Sochan and Missi, who played their way into their draft slots by overachieving as key role players, only Edgecombe was drafted as highly as he was projected to be coming out of high school.

So let's not pretend like our track record with these guys is great. Almost all of the "can't miss" guys were overexposed at Baylor and saw their draft stock drop as a result. Virtually all would have been better off if they were used the way that Jalen Suggs (5th overall pick) was at Gonzaga, Stephon Castle (4th overall pick) was at UConn or Chris Cenac is currently being used at Houston.

Discipline isn't a bad thing. And history suggests a right-sized role as a freshman helps those players' draft stock far more than the freedom to overexpose their weaknesses does.

Well we all know that projection =/= guarantee. It seems to me your criticism about hit rate is true of every One & Done heavy program to some degree.

that said, I certainly don't know enough about CBB/NBA draft history to challenge this assertion: "And history suggests a right-sized role as a freshman helps those players' draft stock far more than the freedom to overexpose their weaknesses does." Seems like a longform post about this would be great for other fans to read (not being snarky!).

So is our track record with five-star freshmen good or not? You were lol'ing about it earlier, and now you seem less sure.

I'll just stick to the facts. We've had one lottery pick out of nine five-star freshmen and two lottery picks total. And only one freshman that we've recruited under Drew, period, played a prominent role on a team that escaped the first weekend of the NCAA tournament while they were a freshman at Baylor.

I would suggest the evidence speaks for itself. What we're currently doing isn't working. And while one-and-done freshmen certainly aren't our only or even biggest problem as a program, they're not helping us achieve any of the goals that most of our fans have for our program (competing for Big 12 titles and making deep runs in March).

When we've won, it's literally always been been with mature, tough teams. Since shifting our recruiting focus back to five-star freshmen, we've gotten farther and farther away from the qualities that made our best teams special.

It's crazy we're still having this conversation honestly. If you look at the the five trips we've made to the second weekend (or beyond) with Drew, only one had a freshman get significant minutes and he was the fourth-leading scorer on that team. Every good team we've ever had was built around experienced, physically mature players -- most of those who were developed over multiple years in our program. That we've abandoned any semblance of development in favor of a strategy that has yielded one disappointment after another is absolutely insane to me. And at this point, I don't see any way off that treadmill.
Bearknuckle
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bear2be2 said:

Bearknuckle said:

bear2be2 said:

Bearknuckle said:

bear2be2 said:

Robert Wilson said:

Crawfoso1973 said:

You are making my point for me. The problem hasn't been our freshmen, the problem is that our recruiting of "grown men" has sucked the past 2 seasons outside of a few notable exceptions. Even those notable exceptions like Omiet and RayJ Dennis are only one-year rentals. This offseason and our approach to the portal will be very telling.

It's not the freshmen per se, but it is the expectations / role / cost of those freshmen and the impact that has on the rest of your roster.

Exactly. As I said before, the freshmen aren't explicitly the problem. But they're decidedly and demonstrably not part of the solution either.

With five-star freshmen, the juice just isn't worth the squeeze, especially in our program, where those guys are consistently allowed more freedom than is good for them.

lolwut. What could you possibly mean by "more freedom than is good for them"?

We haven't had a single one-and-done get into trouble off the court, and they've all been high draft picks going back to Keyonte (George, Walter, Missi, Edgecombe).

Are you saying that if 'properly' handled, each of them would have been drafted even higher?

If they were properly handled they might have actually won something in college, which (as a Baylor basketball fan) is literally all I care about.

But to your point, yes, most of them would have been drafted higher. Perry Jones and Isaiah Austin both had to come back for a sophomore year after being projected as first rounders out of high school. Quincy Miler and Kendall Brown both fell to the second round. And both Keyonte George and Ja'Kobe Walter both fell to the mid to late first round after being projected as lottery picks.

Outside of Sochan and Missi, who played their way into their draft slots by overachieving as key role players, only Edgecombe was drafted as highly as he was projected to be coming out of high school.

So let's not pretend like our track record with these guys is great. Almost all of the "can't miss" guys were overexposed at Baylor and saw their draft stock drop as a result. Virtually all would have been better off if they were used the way that Jalen Suggs (5th overall pick) was at Gonzaga, Stephon Castle (4th overall pick) was at UConn or Chris Cenac is currently being used at Houston.

Discipline isn't a bad thing. And history suggests a right-sized role as a freshman helps those players' draft stock far more than the freedom to overexpose their weaknesses does.

Well we all know that projection =/= guarantee. It seems to me your criticism about hit rate is true of every One & Done heavy program to some degree.

that said, I certainly don't know enough about CBB/NBA draft history to challenge this assertion: "And history suggests a right-sized role as a freshman helps those players' draft stock far more than the freedom to overexpose their weaknesses does." Seems like a longform post about this would be great for other fans to read (not being snarky!).

So is our track record with five-star freshmen good or not? You were lol'ing about it earlier, and now you seem less sure.

I'll just stick to the facts. We've had one lottery pick out of nine five-star freshmen and two lottery picks total. And only one freshman that we've recruited under Drew, period, played a prominent role on a team that escaped the first weekend of the NCAA tournament while they were a freshman at Baylor.

I would suggest the evidence speaks for itself. What we're currently doing isn't working. And while one-and-done freshmen certainly aren't our only or even biggest problem as a program, they're not helping us achieve any of the goals that most of our fans have for our program (competing for Big 12 titles and making deep runs in March).

When we've won, it's literally always been been with mature, tough teams. Since shifting our recruiting focus back to five-star freshmen, we've gotten farther and farther away from the qualities that made our best teams special.

It's crazy we're still having this conversation honestly. If you look at the the five trips we've made to the second weekend (or beyond) with Drew, only one had a freshman get significant minutes and he was the fourth-leading scorer on that team. Every good team we've ever had was built around experienced, physically mature players -- most of those who were developed over multiple years in our program. That we've abandoned any semblance of development in favor of a strategy that has yielded one disappointment after another is absolutely insane to me. And at this point, I don't see any way off that treadmill.

I'll admit I'm open to changing my position based on your arguments..but what would cement that is a real analysis of 5 stars, the ways they were utilized as 1 & Dones at their respective programs, and their resulting draft position - in other words providing some substance to back up your claim about "too much freedom" being bad for 5 stars' draft stock.

But instead you've broadened the discussion to roster construction in general (and I already agreed with you there, developing gritty lunchpail kids is superior to non-cohesive talent) instead of drilling down on the core point I was contesting.

You don't owe my that long form analysis, but I genuinely would be interested to read it and think it would help casuals like myself understand why ball-knowers are all getting pretty upset with CSD beyond having a really bad season.
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