Cameron Carr draft evaluation - The Athletic

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Haven't read it all yet; really long, but thought the board would appreciate:

OVERVIEW
Height: 6 ft. 41/2 in.
Weight: 184 lbs.
Wingspan: 7 ft. 3/4 in.
Standing reach: 8 ft. 8 in.
Birthday: Nov. 21, 2004
Age: 21.6
Hometown: Eden Prairie, Minn.
ANALYSIS
Offensively, Carr's game looks like one that should blend perfectly into the NBA. He's a legitimate 3-point shooter who can attack closeouts, plays well off the ball as a cutter and takes advantage of opportunities as a finisher because of his length. He has the physical height and length NBA teams canvass the globe to find.
The swing skill toward Carr being a positive NBA player is obvious. He needs to get stronger. He needs to play with more bend. He needs to be willing to get more physical. And once that happens, he needs to be much more active and engaged on defense. Some of these things are fixable, as Carr has already done good work on his frame as he has gotten older. He looks a lot like a late bloomer to be excited about, even though he's already 21.
Carr feels like a good post-lottery bet to take somewhere in the first round, with some ceiling to be a legitimate starter at the two guard position or as a microwave sixth man if the frame comes together.
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STATS
Hover over any column header to see its definition.
YEAR SCHOOL GP PPG RPG APG TOPG BPG SPG 3PA/G FTA/G FG% 3P% FT%
2025-26 Baylor 34 18.9 5.8 2.6 2.4 1.3 0.9 6.1 4.9 49.4 37.4 80.1
2024-25 Tennessee 4 4.8 1.5 1 0.3 0.5 0 1.3 2.3 62.5 40.0 77.8
2023-24 Tennessee 14 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.2 29.6 27.8 66.7
STRENGTHS
Has prototypical measurements for an NBA wing. Came in at 6 feet 4.5 with a 7-foot wingspan at the combine. Players with this kind of size, length and production tend to have successful careers when they also possess Carr's skills and production.
Athletically, Carr is explosive and uses his length incredibly well. Covers ground quickly in transition and runs the court at a high level. Big-time finisher above the rim when he gets a runway. Long strides allow him to beat opponents down the court with ease. Has good body control and is a fluid mover. Much more of an open-floor athlete than a tight-spaces one, which we'll talk about in the next section. Looks the part, though, and moves like an NBA wing.
Possessed the strongest on/off numbers in the class this season, with Baylor being 27.4 points per 100 possessions better with Carr on the court versus off the court, per CBB Analytics. The Bears won their minutes by 9.4 points per 100 with him on the court and lost by 18.1 points per 100 with him off the court. Essentially, they couldn't score without him. The team posted a 120.7 offensive rating with Carr on the court which was equivalent to the 35th-best mark in the country despite playing one of the 25 hardest schedules nationwide versus a 107.2 offensive rating without him, which would be equivalent to 250th. Only one of Baylor's other top-six rotation players in minutes played this season posted a neutral or better effect on the team's net rating. Baylor was also 13.9 points per 100 better with him on the court defensively, but the reason for those numbers is much noisier and based solely on a notoriously fickle opponent 3-point percentage.
Carr was the epitome of a professional scorer playing college basketball. Was efficient at a high volume this season. Shot 49.4 percent from the field, 37.4 percent from 3 and 80.1 percent from the line while averaging 18.9 points. Only 25 college players have put up at least 18.5 points while shooting those percentages and taking at least six 3s per game. Carr is one of only four high-major players to do that, with the other three being Doug McDermott, Buddy Hield and Hubert Davis. All three played at least a decade in the NBA.
Everything starts with Carr's jump shot at this stage. Very versatile shooter who knocks them down from a variety of situations with terrific mechanics. Drilled 37.4 percent of his 3s on 6.1 attempts per game. Functional all-situations shooter as an off-ball player. Good at coming off screens and firing, as he drilled 10 of those at a 41 percent clip this season. If he's spotting up, it feels automatic if you leave him open, as he hit 40.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s this season. Also drilled 32.5 percent of his pull-up 3s, though, with a late-season swoon tanking those numbers from up around 38 percent in February.
The mechanics on Carr's shot look pure and extremely translatable to high-level NBA shooting. His jumper can take time to develop, as it features a significant rhythm ball dip, but his release point is very high with his long arms, and everything comes off fluidly and purely. Can knock down shots well over tight contests. His release is all in one motion, and he's excellent at getting his feet underneath him in relocation situations and spot-up situations. There's every reason to buy into him as an off-the-catch shooter, from his shot prep to his release, even if he could stand to speed up the process.
Mostly is a catch-and-shoot player but can knock down shots off the dribble after he has created them. Hit 17 of 42 attempts off ball screens from 3 and five of his 14 3-point attempts in isolation situations. Loves to use little hang dribbles to freeze defenders before picking up the ball and firing. Can do so with either hand. He's well-balanced and gets his feet underneath him.
Uses the threat of his jumper well to move off the ball. Flies around as a cutter and is a serious above-the-rim finisher when he gets an open runway and some downhill force toward the rim. Smart at cutting backdoor off help from his opponent. Threw down 47 dunks this season, and several were of the authoritative variety, using his combination of length and ability to leap off two feet to sky and finish far above the rim. Typically would score about one bucket per game as a cutter. Was also excellent at flying around screens and creating opportunities for himself that way. Knew how to curl off screens or flare depending on how defenders played him, then at times would reject them into a cut if he felt like he had a runway. Smart off-ball mover.
Also uses that shooting ability to attack closeouts. Can make a one-dribble pull-up from midrange or even get into a floater if necessary. Can also drive to the rim when he sees an opening.
That dovetails nicely with his finishing ability. Made an absurd 67.5 percent of his shots at the rim in half-court settings, per Synergy. Most of these were not necessarily self-created chances at the rim, but some were, and he showed good footwork with his gathers even though he's not all that strong yet through contact. Uses his length to extend and get to the rim when he can. Also has the body control and balance to manipulate the ball in the air to finish around rotating rim protectors. Didn't use the floater a ton this season, but it was useful, and he displayed good touch on it with a nice, high release point.
Was also lethal in transition when he could stride out and beat opponents down the court and then manipulate the ball in the air or even sky for a dunk. Great at filling lanes and opening angles for his teammates. Also a solid defensive rebounder who crashed the glass well and then would push on the break.
Carr's passing and understanding of how the defense was playing him got better throughout the season. After a slow first 10 games, Carr averaged 3.3 assists over his final 24 games. We'll talk about that in the next section, as Carr's vision isn't particularly elite. But he did a much better job of taking what the defense gave him after he started seeing more attention.
Not much to write home about on the defensive end, but he was at least a useful playmaker on that end. Used his length to block shots rotating across the back line and on jumpers. Swatted 1.3 shots per game, one of the best marks for a wing in this class. Also averaged nearly one steal per game. Has a lot of improvement areas on defense, but there is at least some ceiling because of his athleticism and length.
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AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
Carr's frame certainly raises concern even if he's tall and long for the role. He's still skinny, at 190 pounds. Like many players with this kind of length, Carr also has a high center of gravity. Gets pushed around too easily because of it and can't anchor to his spot. Also doesn't often play with a lot of bend.
All of the above makes Carr more of a perimeter-based player on both ends. He isn't very physical because opposing players out-leverage him too often. Needs to learn to play with more bend and continue adding strength to get the most out of his career these are by far the biggest swing "skills" for him in the future.
This shows itself most on the defensive end. Because he plays tall and has high hips, he gets bullied backward too easily and can't hold his line on defense. Even when he gets his chest in front of his man when he's defending on the ball, it feels like offensive players can out-leverage and drive through him. It seemed like he often got caught on screens. Has to learn to start playing lower and needs to get stronger to be an effective on-ball defensive player.
Off the ball, Carr was also more inattentive this season. Was not anticipatory in his rotations and actions to help his teammates. Missed quite a few help-the-helper moments even later into the season. Needs to be more engaged in what's happening around him on that end to become a consistent winning player. Was a useful shot blocker for a wing on contests and occasionally at the rim, but he didn't always make the second or third effort if he didn't think he could get the ball.
Carr has tools defensively because of his length, and he posted action plays like blocks and steals. But he needs to be willing to get more physical and tougher in those defensive moments. Baylor had one of the worst defenses in the Big 12, and he did not help the problem. Getting stronger and being passable on the defensive end are huge swing skills for Carr, and it will come down to being willing to do it consistently.
As an offensive player, Carr's handle is rudimentary with room for improvement. Much more comfortable as a change-of-pace player than as a change-of-direction, crossover-style separator. Doesn't have a ton of strength or quick-twitch explosiveness to get by opponents or go through their chest when they get slightly off their line. Operates best in straight lines but he can get knocked off those straight lines by stronger defenders who beat him to the spot. Would like to see him more consistently go off one foot instead of two as a finisher. Likes to load up and try to explode to the rim with his length.
Carr isn't a selfish player, and he got better as a passer as the season went on, but he's not a particularly good one. He averaged 2.6 assists, but not many were particularly high-level reads. Always seemed like they were one pass away or quick reversals. Can also be off target with his passes because he sometimes gets out of control on his drives.
His drives often seemed to end in contested attempts at the rim or from the midrange because he wouldn't always see where the help was coming from and make high-level reads. He needs to get better at understanding where defenders are helping from and where the second and third lines of the defense are going to stop taking ugly, contested shots. Sometimes he would settle for a deep jumper instead of driving. Would also sometimes go before the ball screen or the set would develop and fire a jumper. Occasionally led to offensive stagnation for Baylor, although Tounde Yessoufou was a much bigger culprit than Carr.
Those choices led to ugly turnovers. His 2.6 assists per game weren't a bad number for ostensibly a scoring guard. But he also averaged 2.4 turnovers, which is not great. The off-target passes are particularly a problem. He also sometimes picks up the ball a little too early and makes casual, nonchalant decisions.
BACKGROUND
His parents are Tanya and Chris. Chris was the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year at Southern Illinois and was a second-round pick by the Phoenix Suns in 1995. He played in the NBA for six years before a career overseas and is now an assistant coach at Drury University. Chris was also the runner-up to Kobe Bryant in the 1997 Slam Dunk Contest. He met Tanya while she was a member of the dance team for the Minnesota Timberwolves when he played there.
Cameron has four older sisters, including Chrissy, who was a 1,500-point scorer who played at Kansas State, Syracuse and Arkansas. Carr is from Minneapolis but moved around because of his father's coaching career. He was a late bloomer physically. He started high school at Manhattan High in Kansas, as Chris was a women's basketball coach at Kansas State. Carr was good as a skinny, 6-foot-2 sophomore before moving to basketball powerhouse Link Academy, where he emerged late as a big-time recruit. He missed most of his junior season with a knee injury, but by the time he got back, he was 6 feet 5 with a 7-foot wingspan and looked like a different player. He went from being a three-star recruit with lower-end offers to a four-star recruit being pursued by many of the best programs in the country.
He helped lead Link to the GEICO Nationals championship along with Toronto Raptors first-round pick Ja'Kobe Walter. Carr ended his high school career as a consensus four-star recruit and top-60 player in the country. He committed to Tennessee over Kansas State, Northwestern and Virginia. His time at Tennessee did not go well, as he saw action only briefly in 14 games as a freshman. He injured his thumb after four games into his sophomore year and transferred midway through the season.
He committed to Baylor in January 2025 and sat out the rest of the season. Carr immediately emerged as a potential NBA Draft pick during his third collegiate season. He averaged 18.9 points and was named third-team All-Big 12 while finishing fourth in points per game in the league. He declared for the draft after his redshirt sophomore season and is seen as a likely first-round pick.
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Assassin
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NBA Mock - about where I see him going in most mocks

13. Miami Heat: Cameron Carr, Baylor

Scouting Report: Carr was the best prospect to suit up in the NBA combine scrimmages and put on a show. He has elite physical tools with a monster 7-foot wingspan and 42.5-inch vertical jump to go along with immense upside as a shooter, capable of knocking down shots on the move and off the dribble. His best basketball should still be ahead of him after being somewhat of a late bloomer in high school.

Intel: Miami has been heavily speculated about as an Antetokounmpo suitor, which means there's a strong possibility that this pick won't be made by them. They could be in the market for another ballhandling guard or a high-upside wing like Carr should they make this pick though.
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Assassin
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Top 100 players

21. Cameron Carr, SG/SF, Baylor
Sophomore | Height: 6-5 | Age: 21.6 | Previous ranking: 20
Strengths: Carr is a talented scorer and shotmaker with deep 3-point range. He's one of the draft's most explosive athletes and can play above the rim and finish. He's a good shot-blocker for a wing and has room to become a solid team defender.
Weaknesses: Carr is still a streaky shooter who often relies on tough looks. He also isn't much of a ball handler or playmaker for teammates, likely confining him to an off-ball role. His defensive impact was inconsistent in college.
The verdict: After spending two seasons mired on the bench at Tennessee, Carr broke out upon transferring to Baylor, showing NBA-caliber scoring upside, albeit on a middling team. Becoming a more consistent all-around performer and tougher defender will be key as he transitions likely into lower-usage role.
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