WBB Program Analysis: Fair but Complete

758 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by ctxbear
Adriacus Peratuun
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So many opinions offered about Baylor WBB Program are cherry picking data to support a predetermined position. Taking the data to the opinion rather than taking the opinion to the data.

Stuff Not Within Coach's Control:

1) inherited roster
2) facilities
3) bulk of NIL support
4) budget
5) timing of hire
6) most injuries

Stuff within their control:

1) recruiting
2) culture
3) schemes
4) tactics
5) effort demanded
6) some injuries (if a player is injured due to practice running too long and dead-legged player blows out a knee, that result is on the coach)
7) scheduling
8) staff
9) some portion of player development (some of this item belongs on player)
10) program image

Items for which Collen incorrectly gets blamed:

1) depth issues of Year 1 team.
Why? She inherited 6 players. Great players but only 6. That roster size is atrocious and only Mulkey is to blame.
2) results of short roster in Year 1.
Why? That team had to practice and play basically every minute. No rest. They were horrifically dead-legged by March. Early NCAAT exit not on Collen.
3) results of short roster in Year 2.
While people use hindsight to complain, Collen didn't have that opportunity. She returned only two players she inherited. It was effectively a wholesale roster turnover.

Things that Collen did VERY well:

1) regular season results in Years 1-3. Given the mess, Collen overachieved by some degree.
2) recruiting in Year 1. With no player relationships, a ton of burned bridges with Summer Teams and Summer Tournaments that Mulkey left behind, and a short window, Collen managed to recruit Buggs, Fontleroy and Abraham. That result is undeniably a huge success.
3) modernized schemes.
4) mostly happy players.
5) no media miscues.
6) rebuild trust with Summer Teams and Summer Tournaments.
7) steady top quarter of the B12 results.
8) many NIL buys of transfers.
9) special play design (inbounds plays, etc.)

Things Collen did poorly:

1) player development for most part. Buggs improved then leveled off without much further improvement. Fontleroy improved and then dropped off considerably. Abraham has slight improvement. Every player since has been unremarkable.
2) recruiting since Year 1. Basically a disaster.
3) team effort in big games.
4) scheme execution.
5) roster construction.
6) matching schemes to personnel abilities.
7) program excitement level.
8) game planning for key games.
9) pace of play in half court O.
10) paint touches on half court O.
11) in game adjustments this season.

Think it is fair to say that entering this season the positives still outweighed the negatives.
Think it is also fair to say that they no longer do.

Collen is very highly compensated compared to most peers. Demanding top results is not unfair.
She has great facilities, a solid budget, solid NIL money, etc.

Given another year's flame out on HS recruiting, a disappointing season with a senior laden team, peer comparisons, etc. it is very fair to assert that Collen's seat should be hot.
But let's blame her fairly. And let's analyze her fairly.
Kkybear09
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I like the list.

Team effort in big games is a bit of a generalization that can also be a bit of a cherry pick.

Certainly the last few we've had have been that way.

But we also beat two top 10 teams (at the time we played them and Duke has made their way back into it now) with neither of those games at home. Those should also be classified as big games for effort related reasons.

They were big games at the time and there was clearly good effort in them.

Again certainly the last few have not been great since, but there's more nuance that a blanket generalization on that point.
Adriacus Peratuun
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Kkybear09 said:

I like the list.

Team effort in big games is a bit of a generalization that can also be a bit of a cherry pick.

Certainly the last few we've had have been that way.

But we also beat two top 10 teams (at the time we played them and Duke has made their way back into it now) with neither of those games at home. Those should also be classified as big games for effort related reasons.

They were big games at the time and there was clearly good effort in them.

Again certainly the last few have not been great since, but there's more nuance that a blanket generalization on that point.


The Duke game looks totally different on a second or third watch. It wasn't great D by Baylor. It was OK defense and a Duke team that couldn't throw a tennis ball in the ocean. Duke shot 29% from field, 21% from 3, and scored 52. And many misses were wide open looks. The result was more about Duke than Baylor.

Effort is necessarily an overview look. Can vary by player and by game. Much like shooting percentage. A player that hits 100% of shots in one game but shoots 15% for the season isn't a great shooter despite the one game results. Some stuff simply requires broad analysis.
Bear3
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This is a very good list and I agree with most of it. I do have a couple of comments/questions.

You said that program excitement is one of things Nicki did poorly. She has spent a lot of effort engaging students and student attendance at games has definitely improved. The attendance of " local fans" has decreased.

Outside of winning more, not sure what can be done to get these local fans back. Cheap or free tickets are currently available. I do know quite a few older people who are still fans of team but no longer come to in person games because they are not comfortable with the steep seating in Foster. Program has also lost people who were more fans of Kim than the team . They disliked Nicki from day one solely because she replaced Kim. The only time you hear from them is when there is a loss and their comments are what Kim would have done to win game and what our record would be if she were still here. The older people and the Mulkey cult aren't coming back. Outside of winning what can be done to generate more excitement and attendance for other local fans?

You also said she has solid NIL money. Does she have enough to compete with most SEC and Big 10 schools for high school recruits? Another recruiting problem she has is that a lot of top players just do not want to play in the Big 12. As you mentioned Nicki's recruiting was good her first year. NIL came in her second year and high school recruiting dropped down a lot. If she has enough money to compete with SEC/Big 10, that is good. Not much she can do if players just don't want to come to Big 12 but good NIL should certainly help recruiting.
Adriacus Peratuun
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Bear3 said:

This is a very good list and I agree with most of it. I do have a couple of comments/questions.

You said that program excitement is one of things Nicki did poorly. She has spent a lot of effort engaging students and student attendance at games has definitely improved. The attendance of " local fans" has decreased.

Outside of winning more, not sure what can be done to get these local fans back. Cheap or free tickets are currently available. I do know quite a few older people who are still fans of team but no longer come to in person games because they are not comfortable with the steep seating in Foster. Program has also lost people who were more fans of Kim than the team . They disliked Nicki from day one solely because she replaced Kim. The only time you hear from them is when there is a loss and their comments are what Kim would have done to win game and what our record would be if she were still here. The older people and the Mulkey cult aren't coming back. Outside of winning what can be done to generate more excitement and attendance for other local fans?

You also said she has solid NIL money. Does she have enough to compete with most SEC and Big 10 schools for high school recruits? Another recruiting problem she has is that a lot of top players just do not want to play in the Big 12. As you mentioned Nicki's recruiting was good her first year. NIL came in her second year and high school recruiting dropped down a lot. If she has enough money to compete with SEC/Big 10, that is good. Not much she can do if players just don't want to come to Big 12 but good NIL should certainly help recruiting.



Excitement = recruits, students, alumni and Joe Waco.

For all her many faults, Mulkey created excitement with alumni and Joe Waco by strongly reaching out to groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged. Collen not so much.

Recruit and student excitement means winning (primarily) and great games against quality opponents. Some blowouts of lesser opponents and wins at home against quality opponents are needed.

NIL - my understanding is the total is sufficient for 4/4/4 at a consistent NCAAT 2nd weekend level.
4 high quality/4 rotation quality/4 development quality.
The quiet whispers are that we substantially overpaid Buggs and Fontleroy this year. A decision that retention was key.
Think the consensus is that the decision to pay up should be reserved for PG and Post and possibly very high quality scorer/creator/defender wing. It is far easier to find quality at 2/3/4 than high quality two way talent at 1 or 5.

The repeating angst among BB folks is that MBB and WBB are failing at roster construction evaluation/methodology/spending. Quality at key positions. Depth. Athleticism to defend. Ability to compete against varying styles of play.

Quote: worst PG situation (collective men and women) since 90s.
Bear3
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Next year will be interesting. I would assume PG will be biggest need in portal and we will need to pay a lot to get a good one. I would think we will also need to pay huge to keep Taliah.
ctxbear
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

Bear3 said:

This is a very good list and I agree with most of it. I do have a couple of comments/questions.

You said that program excitement is one of things Nicki did poorly. She has spent a lot of effort engaging students and student attendance at games has definitely improved. The attendance of " local fans" has decreased.

Outside of winning more, not sure what can be done to get these local fans back. Cheap or free tickets are currently available. I do know quite a few older people who are still fans of team but no longer come to in person games because they are not comfortable with the steep seating in Foster. Program has also lost people who were more fans of Kim than the team . They disliked Nicki from day one solely because she replaced Kim. The only time you hear from them is when there is a loss and their comments are what Kim would have done to win game and what our record would be if she were still here. The older people and the Mulkey cult aren't coming back. Outside of winning what can be done to generate more excitement and attendance for other local fans?

You also said she has solid NIL money. Does she have enough to compete with most SEC and Big 10 schools for high school recruits? Another recruiting problem she has is that a lot of top players just do not want to play in the Big 12. As you mentioned Nicki's recruiting was good her first year. NIL came in her second year and high school recruiting dropped down a lot. If she has enough money to compete with SEC/Big 10, that is good. Not much she can do if players just don't want to come to Big 12 but good NIL should certainly help recruiting.



Excitement = recruits, students, alumni and Joe Waco.

For all her many faults, Mulkey created excitement with alumni and Joe Waco by strongly reaching out to groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged. Collen not so much.

Recruit and student excitement means winning (primarily) and great games against quality opponents. Some blowouts of lesser opponents and wins at home against quality opponents are needed.

NIL - my understanding is the total is sufficient for 4/4/4 at a consistent NCAAT 2nd weekend level.
4 high quality/4 rotation quality/4 development quality.
The quiet whispers are that we substantially overpaid Buggs and Fontleroy this year. A decision that retention was key.
Think the consensus is that the decision to pay up should be reserved for PG and Post and possibly very high quality scorer/creator/defender wing. It is far easier to find quality at 2/3/4 than high quality two way talent at 1 or 5.

The repeating angst among BB folks is that MBB and WBB are failing at roster construction evaluation/methodology/spending. Quality at key positions. Depth. Athleticism to defend. Ability to compete against varying styles of play.

Quote: worst PG situation (collective men and women) since 90s.

What did Mulkey do to reach out to "groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged," and what groups were they? I've lived in this city for a very long time and don't know that Collen is any less visible out and around town than Mulkey was.

I think the sad reality is this: People don't want to watch women's basketball in a city the size of Waco with a school the size of Baylor unless there is a gimmick involved (i.e., Mulkey's outsized personality, which, by the way, I love) combined with a team that never falls out of the top 6 in the rankings.

We had a decent crowd for TCU, but aside from that, wins have not translated to butts in seats.
True Grit
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Going back to your Years 1 and 2 recruiting insight, I would have gone with a current college coach who had ties to high school programs or had several players on their current roster who would have more than likely transferred in. CNC had very little to no college or high school connections (specifically in Texas). I am not really sure if that area is any better today.
True Grit
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The True Grit fam goes to most all men's games and several woman's games per year. Now, I will add we live 20 minutes from Foster. My wife and I talk all the time about many of the over 55 fans we always saw at the Ferrell Center do not come to Foster for the games now, and it is 100% because of accessibility (parking, getting in and out of the arena and seats, steep climb to upper seats, small walk ways between seats, and locations of concessions and restrooms). Just my 2 cents... The team and CNC need to build a new fan base. The KM crowd is not coming back.
Bear3
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Yes. The move to Foster has lost many older fans. I hear from most that it is the
steep seating and fear of falling that keeps them away. Unfortunately not much you can do about that…..
Adriacus Peratuun
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ctxbear said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Bear3 said:

This is a very good list and I agree with most of it. I do have a couple of comments/questions.

You said that program excitement is one of things Nicki did poorly. She has spent a lot of effort engaging students and student attendance at games has definitely improved. The attendance of " local fans" has decreased.

Outside of winning more, not sure what can be done to get these local fans back. Cheap or free tickets are currently available. I do know quite a few older people who are still fans of team but no longer come to in person games because they are not comfortable with the steep seating in Foster. Program has also lost people who were more fans of Kim than the team . They disliked Nicki from day one solely because she replaced Kim. The only time you hear from them is when there is a loss and their comments are what Kim would have done to win game and what our record would be if she were still here. The older people and the Mulkey cult aren't coming back. Outside of winning what can be done to generate more excitement and attendance for other local fans?

You also said she has solid NIL money. Does she have enough to compete with most SEC and Big 10 schools for high school recruits? Another recruiting problem she has is that a lot of top players just do not want to play in the Big 12. As you mentioned Nicki's recruiting was good her first year. NIL came in her second year and high school recruiting dropped down a lot. If she has enough money to compete with SEC/Big 10, that is good. Not much she can do if players just don't want to come to Big 12 but good NIL should certainly help recruiting.



Excitement = recruits, students, alumni and Joe Waco.

For all her many faults, Mulkey created excitement with alumni and Joe Waco by strongly reaching out to groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged. Collen not so much.

Recruit and student excitement means winning (primarily) and great games against quality opponents. Some blowouts of lesser opponents and wins at home against quality opponents are needed.

NIL - my understanding is the total is sufficient for 4/4/4 at a consistent NCAAT 2nd weekend level.
4 high quality/4 rotation quality/4 development quality.
The quiet whispers are that we substantially overpaid Buggs and Fontleroy this year. A decision that retention was key.
Think the consensus is that the decision to pay up should be reserved for PG and Post and possibly very high quality scorer/creator/defender wing. It is far easier to find quality at 2/3/4 than high quality two way talent at 1 or 5.

The repeating angst among BB folks is that MBB and WBB are failing at roster construction evaluation/methodology/spending. Quality at key positions. Depth. Athleticism to defend. Ability to compete against varying styles of play.

Quote: worst PG situation (collective men and women) since 90s.

What did Mulkey do to reach out to "groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged," and what groups were they? I've lived in this city for a very long time and don't know that Collen is any less visible out and around town than Mulkey was.



Mulkey's first six months on the job she did a one woman blitzkrieg of every retirement facility, women's group, Rotary Club, Kiwanis, Lions Club, Elevate, Women's Network, Junior League, etc.
whitetrash
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

ctxbear said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Bear3 said:

This is a very good list and I agree with most of it. I do have a couple of comments/questions.

You said that program excitement is one of things Nicki did poorly. She has spent a lot of effort engaging students and student attendance at games has definitely improved. The attendance of " local fans" has decreased.

Outside of winning more, not sure what can be done to get these local fans back. Cheap or free tickets are currently available. I do know quite a few older people who are still fans of team but no longer come to in person games because they are not comfortable with the steep seating in Foster. Program has also lost people who were more fans of Kim than the team . They disliked Nicki from day one solely because she replaced Kim. The only time you hear from them is when there is a loss and their comments are what Kim would have done to win game and what our record would be if she were still here. The older people and the Mulkey cult aren't coming back. Outside of winning what can be done to generate more excitement and attendance for other local fans?

You also said she has solid NIL money. Does she have enough to compete with most SEC and Big 10 schools for high school recruits? Another recruiting problem she has is that a lot of top players just do not want to play in the Big 12. As you mentioned Nicki's recruiting was good her first year. NIL came in her second year and high school recruiting dropped down a lot. If she has enough money to compete with SEC/Big 10, that is good. Not much she can do if players just don't want to come to Big 12 but good NIL should certainly help recruiting.



Excitement = recruits, students, alumni and Joe Waco.

For all her many faults, Mulkey created excitement with alumni and Joe Waco by strongly reaching out to groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged. Collen not so much.

Recruit and student excitement means winning (primarily) and great games against quality opponents. Some blowouts of lesser opponents and wins at home against quality opponents are needed.

NIL - my understanding is the total is sufficient for 4/4/4 at a consistent NCAAT 2nd weekend level.
4 high quality/4 rotation quality/4 development quality.
The quiet whispers are that we substantially overpaid Buggs and Fontleroy this year. A decision that retention was key.
Think the consensus is that the decision to pay up should be reserved for PG and Post and possibly very high quality scorer/creator/defender wing. It is far easier to find quality at 2/3/4 than high quality two way talent at 1 or 5.

The repeating angst among BB folks is that MBB and WBB are failing at roster construction evaluation/methodology/spending. Quality at key positions. Depth. Athleticism to defend. Ability to compete against varying styles of play.

Quote: worst PG situation (collective men and women) since 90s.

What did Mulkey do to reach out to "groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged," and what groups were they? I've lived in this city for a very long time and don't know that Collen is any less visible out and around town than Mulkey was.



Mulkey's first six months on the job she did a one woman blitzkrieg of every retirement facility, women's group, Rotary Club, Kiwanis, Lions Club, Elevate, Women's Network, Junior League, etc.



She was still doing that until Covid hit.


So far in 5 years, the only thing Collen has done is make a couple of cheeky TikTok videos for Central National Bank.
bawitdaball
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ctxbear said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Bear3 said:

This is a very good list and I agree with most of it. I do have a couple of comments/questions.

You said that program excitement is one of things Nicki did poorly. She has spent a lot of effort engaging students and student attendance at games has definitely improved. The attendance of " local fans" has decreased.

Outside of winning more, not sure what can be done to get these local fans back. Cheap or free tickets are currently available. I do know quite a few older people who are still fans of team but no longer come to in person games because they are not comfortable with the steep seating in Foster. Program has also lost people who were more fans of Kim than the team . They disliked Nicki from day one solely because she replaced Kim. The only time you hear from them is when there is a loss and their comments are what Kim would have done to win game and what our record would be if she were still here. The older people and the Mulkey cult aren't coming back. Outside of winning what can be done to generate more excitement and attendance for other local fans?

You also said she has solid NIL money. Does she have enough to compete with most SEC and Big 10 schools for high school recruits? Another recruiting problem she has is that a lot of top players just do not want to play in the Big 12. As you mentioned Nicki's recruiting was good her first year. NIL came in her second year and high school recruiting dropped down a lot. If she has enough money to compete with SEC/Big 10, that is good. Not much she can do if players just don't want to come to Big 12 but good NIL should certainly help recruiting.



Excitement = recruits, students, alumni and Joe Waco.

For all her many faults, Mulkey created excitement with alumni and Joe Waco by strongly reaching out to groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged. Collen not so much.

Recruit and student excitement means winning (primarily) and great games against quality opponents. Some blowouts of lesser opponents and wins at home against quality opponents are needed.

NIL - my understanding is the total is sufficient for 4/4/4 at a consistent NCAAT 2nd weekend level.
4 high quality/4 rotation quality/4 development quality.
The quiet whispers are that we substantially overpaid Buggs and Fontleroy this year. A decision that retention was key.
Think the consensus is that the decision to pay up should be reserved for PG and Post and possibly very high quality scorer/creator/defender wing. It is far easier to find quality at 2/3/4 than high quality two way talent at 1 or 5.

The repeating angst among BB folks is that MBB and WBB are failing at roster construction evaluation/methodology/spending. Quality at key positions. Depth. Athleticism to defend. Ability to compete against varying styles of play.

Quote: worst PG situation (collective men and women) since 90s.

What did Mulkey do to reach out to "groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged," and what groups were they? I've lived in this city for a very long time and don't know that Collen is any less visible out and around town than Mulkey was.

I think the sad reality is this: People don't want to watch women's basketball in a city the size of Waco with a school the size of Baylor unless there is a gimmick involved (i.e., Mulkey's outsized personality, which, by the way, I love) combined with a team that never falls out of the top 6 in the rankings.

We had a decent crowd for TCU, but aside from that, wins have not translated to butts in seats.


If you are asking that question, you likely weren't living in Waco during her first couple of years. That woman was everywhere.
ctxbear
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bawitdaball said:

ctxbear said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Bear3 said:

This is a very good list and I agree with most of it. I do have a couple of comments/questions.

You said that program excitement is one of things Nicki did poorly. She has spent a lot of effort engaging students and student attendance at games has definitely improved. The attendance of " local fans" has decreased.

Outside of winning more, not sure what can be done to get these local fans back. Cheap or free tickets are currently available. I do know quite a few older people who are still fans of team but no longer come to in person games because they are not comfortable with the steep seating in Foster. Program has also lost people who were more fans of Kim than the team . They disliked Nicki from day one solely because she replaced Kim. The only time you hear from them is when there is a loss and their comments are what Kim would have done to win game and what our record would be if she were still here. The older people and the Mulkey cult aren't coming back. Outside of winning what can be done to generate more excitement and attendance for other local fans?

You also said she has solid NIL money. Does she have enough to compete with most SEC and Big 10 schools for high school recruits? Another recruiting problem she has is that a lot of top players just do not want to play in the Big 12. As you mentioned Nicki's recruiting was good her first year. NIL came in her second year and high school recruiting dropped down a lot. If she has enough money to compete with SEC/Big 10, that is good. Not much she can do if players just don't want to come to Big 12 but good NIL should certainly help recruiting.



Excitement = recruits, students, alumni and Joe Waco.

For all her many faults, Mulkey created excitement with alumni and Joe Waco by strongly reaching out to groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged. Collen not so much.

Recruit and student excitement means winning (primarily) and great games against quality opponents. Some blowouts of lesser opponents and wins at home against quality opponents are needed.

NIL - my understanding is the total is sufficient for 4/4/4 at a consistent NCAAT 2nd weekend level.
4 high quality/4 rotation quality/4 development quality.
The quiet whispers are that we substantially overpaid Buggs and Fontleroy this year. A decision that retention was key.
Think the consensus is that the decision to pay up should be reserved for PG and Post and possibly very high quality scorer/creator/defender wing. It is far easier to find quality at 2/3/4 than high quality two way talent at 1 or 5.

The repeating angst among BB folks is that MBB and WBB are failing at roster construction evaluation/methodology/spending. Quality at key positions. Depth. Athleticism to defend. Ability to compete against varying styles of play.

Quote: worst PG situation (collective men and women) since 90s.

What did Mulkey do to reach out to "groups who otherwise were not Baylor sports engaged," and what groups were they? I've lived in this city for a very long time and don't know that Collen is any less visible out and around town than Mulkey was.

I think the sad reality is this: People don't want to watch women's basketball in a city the size of Waco with a school the size of Baylor unless there is a gimmick involved (i.e., Mulkey's outsized personality, which, by the way, I love) combined with a team that never falls out of the top 6 in the rankings.

We had a decent crowd for TCU, but aside from that, wins have not translated to butts in seats.


If you are asking that question, you likely weren't living in Waco during her first couple of years. That woman was everywhere.

We arrived here the same year, but I was in my 20s and not frequenting senior centers and Junior League gatherings. But I'll admit it, there's probably a difference in how each coach reached out to the community. But it is also a completely different world, in more than a few ways.
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