Something in another threat about whether Nalyssa might choose to come back for her Covid-bonus year brought a question to mind. My first instinct was to say I'd be shocked for Nalyssa to return - she'll be a first round pick next year and presumably will have a Baylor degree in hand after four years.

But I started thinking more broadly about leaving early for the WNBA. It has never been as prominent on the women's side as it is for the men. Frankly, the financial incentive is nowhere close to the same. Nonetheless, in recent years, we have started to see more women choose to go pro before exhausting their college eligibility, or at the very least, there has been increased media buzz about the possibility of players leaving early.

I am wondering if we'll see that trend go back in the other direction now because of name, image, and likeness. Now that the players can stay in college and have a few more chances at free publicity from ESPN, all the while getting endorsement deals, is there really much of a financial advantage to the WNBA over college anymore?

Unless and until women have a legitimate chance at making millions in the pros, I am guessing that NIL would give most players on the fence a strong reason to return to school.

While I would love that she recently posted her newest uniform pic with something like "last year" in the description. I do wonder about those who might be on the bubble though and not guaranteed a first round pic.

Yes, I still agree on Nalyssa. In her case, finishing her college career and moving on is the natural order of things without Covid anyway, and there does not seem to be much to gain sticking around for a fifth year.

In all of WCBB there might be one [and that one is even questionable] player who could earn 40% under NIL what the average WNBA player can earn through WNBA pay, plus overseas pay in Winter, plus appearance fees [assuming zero $ from endorsements since the average WNBA player gets none].

In my original post, I worded some things in a way as to invite that kind of strict dollar-for-dollar analysis. But I think that's too simplistic. Maybe that simplistic thinking is exactly how a 21 year old would approach it, but here are the things I would say to such a young lady hypothetically asking for my advice.

First, the appearance fees I'm treating as a wash. I assume NIL allows a college player to earn those (unless there is a specific rule I'm not aware of). So we're really comparing just the salary component to NIL earnings.

Second, I would not be too quick to look at salary income versus NIL income and call it a day. Because you don't even need professional sports to weigh the scales in that analysis. If a college athlete thinks she might be able to make $20,000 for herself (and I'd guess that would be a home run for most), then she could skip that extra year and go teach high school chemistry for more money. We don't see them leaving early in droves for "normal jobs," so I think inherently there is an understanding that how long you stay in school is not 100% based upon one year's estimated income. There are other factors in play.

Third, and perhaps the average young athlete differs from me most here, but a scholarship covering a year of college is nothing to sneeze at. Baylor's reported tuition last year was $47,000. To my way of thinking, you should include that in any income analysis. So playing a year of pro sports should not be seen as (just throwing out an arbitrary number) $100k versus $0, but instead $100k versus $47k.

Fourth, I would take a careful look at how much of my earnings would go to expenses. In college, you have free housing, and the school pays for most of your meals too. As a professional, you have to pay the cost to move potentially across the country, then the additional cost to travel overseas. And you are paying for a house or apartment in both of those places. That is also assuming you don't get cut or traded in a relatively short time, so that you have to duplicate some of those same costs on another move and penalties for getting out of a lease. All to say that the disposable income starts looking a lot less.

Most of all of that has always been the case, and should be weighed appropriately by any student considering making the early jump. And as I mentioned, there are other considerations that are not strictly financial as well. What I mean to say in the big picture is that of course there is a gap in the income earning potential between pro sports and college, but that NIL may be closing the gap just enough that someone who might go either way has a greater incentive to stay in school.

Some items you should consider:

1) appearance fees aren't a wash. While most WNBA players won't get shoe contracts, most can make solid appearance fees for Nike, Adidas, etc. at a multitude of events. Same for apparel, etc. those fees alone will trump 99+% of NIL earnings. And the WNBA significantly helps players on rookie contracts earn $ through appearances.

2) most college basketball athletes earn their Bachelors degree by the end of their 3rd season due to attending every Summer session [including both before their freshman season]. The question of educational "value" isn't about $ [cost of attendance] but about future value of Masters in their chosen field [versus Bachelors degree].

3) almost all overseas contracts include a beginning/end travel reimbursement/provision. 99+% include housing and generous per diem. Most include car service, local wireless phone, internet access, etc. The "expense" item mentioned simply doesn't apply to the overseas part of their work year [but would apply to WNBA portion].

4) limited earning window. Most players have a limited window to play ball. Every year in college means one less year as a pro. The vast majority of players will earn far more annually playing basketball [even if only a few years] than at any other future profession. Maximizing their years of playing professionally is sound logic.

5) time value of money. Since they earn more playing ball, turning on that cash flow sooner and having it last longer is a sound choice due to the time value of $. Better to earn the bigger paycheck now than earn it later.

The big issue isn't really cash. It is readiness and opportunity acquisition. Most players have a limited window to demonstrate their market value. Once the public perception of their value is diminished, it takes years to rehab. Players need to be ready to contribute [even if merely as a rotation player] from Day One. Players also need to be "marketable" from Day One. The ability to speak in public, avoid controversy, present a dynamic image, etc. In most ways, "off the court" earnings is as much about style is it is about playing substance. Example: Anna Kournikova was never really a top tier tennis player but over her career earned far more than any of her contemporaries [due to image]. LeBron James earns at least $10 off-court for every $1 he earns on-court. But even "non-marketable" players need to be ready. Numerous WNBA All-Stars who will never make much [if any] $ from endorsements earn $250,000-$500,000 annually in overseas Winter play simply because of that All-Star tag.

Sounds like the women's pro ball gig is better than I would have guessed. A lot of that information gets lost in all of the talk about wage disparity. To be sure, there's a wide disparity, but that still sounds like a pretty sweet deal for the women.

How many of us are ready to pony up some NIL money to keep NaLyssa and Queen next year?

Nice thought, but no single Baylor athletic player, on any sport, ever, is going to make more than $59,000 a season from NIL deals - the WNBA first year salary. These "lady's" make their total money by off the court endorsements (if they can get some), appearance fees, and playing oversees as well. Barring some unforeseen terrible knee injury this season, she will go pro after this season, 1,000%.

All of you have great points, but all of this is speculation and academic if Nalyssa is drafted number 1 and has a career ending injury in her first year. She is only 21 right now. Even if she is drafted number 1, she still has to prove herself in all the leagues to command the big bucks AP is talking about, and then, she will need to stay healthy and focused on said career. All for possibly a couple of hundred thousand, probably less her first two years unless she makes it big, which we all THINK she will. Again, speculation. One thing is sure for these young men and women, the old saying a bird in the hand is worth more than five in the bush is still true. She has the opportunity to get a higher degree of education, bachelors or masters or both if she continues for another year. That will keep paying dividends in future years even if she gets hurt in her last year of college or in the pros. Bailing out early on an education may or may not pay off in the long run. Regardless, it is not my decision but hers. Of course I would like to see her stay because I believe waiting one year of her life to extend her education will pay off many more benefits in the long run, both financially and if she ever wants a family. But nevertheless, I will wish her the best of luck whatever she decides to do. A basketball career has been a good thing for some of the WNBA players, but to be real, for only a very low percentage of the total number of young girls and women who have dreamed of the bright lights. Sic em Nalyssa. Been watching you play from the beginning. Can't wait to see you knocking those 3's down.

MortimerS.6874 said:

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Bailing out early on an education...

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Just wanted to point out that this does not apply to Nalyssa. Assuming she goes pro after this coming year (which I fully expect she will), then it will be after four years as a student, and barring any unexpected turns, as a college graduate. She would only be leaving "early" in the sense that she opted out of the bonus 5th year for Covid. Now, if anyone wanted to take advantage in order to get an extra year of graduate school paid for (Moon), that's great for them, but I would not want to characterize not doing so as bailing out.

MortimerS.6874 said:

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All of you have great points, but all of this is speculation and academic if Nalyssa is drafted number 1 and has a career ending injury in her first year. She is only 21 right now. Even if she is drafted number 1, she still has to prove herself in all the leagues to command the big bucks AP is talking about, and then, she will need to stay healthy and focused on said career. All for possibly a couple of hundred thousand, probably less her first two years unless she makes it big, which we all THINK she will. Again, speculation. One thing is sure for these young men and women, the old saying a bird in the hand is worth more than five in the bush is still true. She has the opportunity to get a higher degree of education, bachelors or masters or both if she continues for another year. That will keep paying dividends in future years even if she gets hurt in her last year of college or in the pros. Bailing out early on an education may or may not pay off in the long run. Regardless, it is not my decision but hers. Of course I would like to see her stay because I believe waiting one year of her life to extend her education will pay off many more benefits in the long run, both financially and if she ever wants a family. But nevertheless, I will wish her the best of luck whatever she decides to do. A basketball career has been a good thing for some of the WNBA players, but to be real, for only a very low percentage of the total number of young girls and women who have dreamed of the bright lights. Sic em Nalyssa. Been watching you play from the beginning. Can't wait to see you knocking those 3's down.

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Not really speculation and if drafted #1 overall she would certainly earn over $200,000 each of her first two years. The WNBA rookie contract is $60,000 per summer. Most high draft choices earn about $120,000-$250,000 per Winter those first couple of seasons. Some like Griner earn more. Some like Cow U's #1 earn less. But once you add the appearance money, any #1 pick will earn at least $200,000 per year. Some like Ionescu get endorsement deals which match their on-court earnings. "Making it big" occurred in getting drafted #1. Everything thereafter is simply adding or subtracting from that baseline value.

And every top player buys insurance for career ending events.

Quote:

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Bone Squad wrote: "Just wanted to point out that this does not apply to Nalyssa. Assuming she goes pro after this coming year (which I fully expect she will), then it will be after four years as a student, and barring any unexpected turns, as a college graduate. She would only be leaving "early" in the sense that she opted out of the bonus 5th year for Covid. Now, if anyone wanted to take advantage in order to get an extra year of graduate school paid for (Moon), that's great for them, but I would not want to characterize not doing so as bailing out."

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My apologies Bone Squad, I didn't imply that she was bailing out on an education, but maybe bailing out on an additional opportunity. Some Masters programs are only a year and seem, according to government statistics on such matters, to be worth their weight in gold over the long run. If she opts to not go, her choice and certainly none of my business, other than as a fan. And I would characterize not going for as much of an education as you can when you have the opportunity as "bailing out", which is simply ok. I have opted out or "bailed out" of a lot of opportunities in my lifetime, some I regret and others I don't, but that is just life and certainly not the unforgiveable sin. Thanks for keeping me honest.

Quote:

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AP writes: "Not really speculation and if drafted #1 overall she would certainly earn over $200,000 each of her first two years. The WNBA rookie contract is $60,000 per summer. Most high draft choices earn about $120,000-$250,000 per Winter those first couple of seasons. Some like Griner earn more. Some like Cow U's #1 earn less. But once you add the appearance money, any #1 pick will earn at least $200,000 per year. Some like Ionescu get endorsement deals which match their on-court earnings. "Making it big" occurred in getting drafted #1. Everything thereafter is simply adding or subtracting from that baseline value.

And every top player buys insurance for career ending events."

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https://queenballers.club/basketball/wnba-salary
An article that pretty well explains the salary structure for what they make in the WNBA. Yes, if you want to travel abroad, you might make more your first year, but not anything like the NBA first rounder, huh? Unless you show me "the actual money", like in bank stub, it is all speculation. According to the article I just posted, they do seem to be improving, but seeing is believing. Show me the money!
Show me a single contract endorsement any of them have right now. Otherwise, speculation. And, even if they do get that amount of money you speculate on, your speculation that Alyssa or anyone else can do it, is still just that, speculation. And speculation is defined in the dictionary as "the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence." Now, you show me the evidence and I stand corrected. Too, my point was, regardless of any conjecture, that there is no guarantee that any player won't get hurt in their first playing years and lose their potential lifetime salary. Yes, insurance will help. Expect to pay $10000 per million in insurance for the privilege (https://www.si.com/more-sports/2009/06/23/insurance-policies1). Add Agent fees, lawyers fees, accountant's fee if you have to use said policy etc etc etc, and when you are all said and done, you still got no accelerated skills, except for basketball skills, to continue your life for the next 60 or so years. There has been more than one professional to go down that road, and many of them have gone to bankruptcy over such issues. The list is a long one. You can google that one for yourself, and I suggest every college wannabe professional player do the same. Frankly, you don't know how much she will actually make even if she is drafted #1, all conjecture at this point. She may have the possibility, but there is still a season to be played this year, and there is really no guarantee at this point it will be played. We are planning on it. That is not conjecture. I see the roster, the schedule has been made, and it is a fact that we are planning on it, but like everyone else, I will have to wait and see what happens when it does. Good thoughts though, and well stated.

MortimerS.6874 said:

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Quote:

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AP writes: "Not really speculation and if drafted #1 overall she would certainly earn over $200,000 each of her first two years. The WNBA rookie contract is $60,000 per summer. Most high draft choices earn about $120,000-$250,000 per Winter those first couple of seasons. Some like Griner earn more. Some like Cow U's #1 earn less. But once you add the appearance money, any #1 pick will earn at least $200,000 per year. Some like Ionescu get endorsement deals which match their on-court earnings. "Making it big" occurred in getting drafted #1. Everything thereafter is simply adding or subtracting from that baseline value.

And every top player buys insurance for career ending events."

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https://queenballers.club/basketball/wnba-salary
An article that pretty well explains the salary structure for what they make in the WNBA. Yes, if you want to travel abroad, you might make more your first year, but not anything like the NBA first rounder, huh? Unless you show me "the actual money", like in bank stub, it is all speculation. According to the article I just posted, they do seem to be improving, but seeing is believing. Show me the money!
Show me a single contract endorsement any of them have right now. Otherwise, speculation. And, even if they do get that amount of money you speculate on, your speculation that Alyssa or anyone else can do it, is still just that, speculation. And speculation is defined in the dictionary as "the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence." Now, you show me the evidence and I stand corrected. Too, my point was, regardless of any conjecture, that there is no guarantee that any player won't get hurt in their first playing years and lose their potential lifetime salary. Yes, insurance will help. Expect to pay $10000 per million in insurance for the privilege (https://www.si.com/more-sports/2009/06/23/insurance-policies1). Add Agent fees, lawyers fees, accountant's fee if you have to use said policy etc etc etc, and when you are all said and done, you still got no accelerated skills, except for basketball skills, to continue your life for the next 60 or so years. There has been more than one professional to go down that road, and many of them have gone to bankruptcy over such issues. The list is a long one. You can google that one for yourself, and I suggest every college wannabe professional player do the same. Frankly, you don't know how much she will actually make even if she is drafted #1, all conjecture at this point. She may have the possibility, but there is still a season to be played this year, and there is really no guarantee at this point it will be played. We are planning on it. That is not conjecture. I see the roster, the schedule has been made, and it is a fact that we are planning on it, but like everyone else, I will have to wait and see what happens when it does. Good thoughts though, and well stated.

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……paystubs or it didn't happen? You can't be real…..

Let me throw your own source back in your face…. https://queenballers.club/basketball/highest-paid-wnba-players

BTW, Sabrina Ionescu signed a five year $3,650,000 contract with Nike before she played a single pro game.

FYI……it isn't conjecture when overseas salaries are reported across the media spectrum.

And……this item is true in all aspects of life…..try getting her name correct. It is NaLyssa.

And…….athletes aren't going broke due to agent fees. Due to insane spending? Yes. Due to financial advisors ripping them off? Yes. But due to a 3% fee on sport contracts and 15% fee on endorsements? No.

…

Quote:

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PA writes…paystubs or it didn't happen? You can't be real…..

Let me throw your own source back in your face…. [url=https://queenballers.club/basketball/highest-paid-wnba-players][/url]https://queenballers.club/basketball/highest-paid-wnba-players

BTW, Sabrina Ionescu signed a five year $3,650,000 contract with Nike before she played a single pro game.

FYI……it isn't conjecture when overseas salaries are reported across the media spectrum.

And……this item is true in all aspects of life…..try getting her name correct. It is NaLyssa.

And…….athletes aren't going broke due to agent fees. Due to insane spending? Yes. Due to financial advisors ripping them off? Yes. But due to a 3% fee on sport contracts and 15% fee on endorsements? No.

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I am so sorry DA, (uh typo again?) Did I hurt your feelings? My apologies, NaLyssa. I must have taken the short cut on your name with my typing, and I do hope you get that 3.65 million Nike threw at Ionescu. That would help, if you can believe this guy, you can expect it this year because he seems to be real adamant about his knowledge. Me, I don't know squat, but I do like to read. And he is a real expert on why athletes go broke? Of course, I am not impressed with his reading skills because I never wrote anyone went broke from agents fees, but I would suspect many athletes have gone broke from trusting their agents. And by the way, if you are looking for an agent, I suspect this guy is wanting to represent some suspecting college athlete. Yeah?
Now, answer back, DA? I luvs this! lololol

PA wrote : "...You can't be real….."
Oh yes, I am real. yuckity yuckity yuck. I are. lol yep. I am real. Starred in my own magazine I did. Yuckity!
A godsend. Woe is me. hmmmm. te huh tehu

Quote:

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PA writes
Some items you should consider:
1) appearance fees aren't a wash. While most WNBA players won't get shoe contracts, most can make solid appearance fees for Nike, Adidas, etc. at a multitude of events. Same for apparel, etc. those fees alone will trump 99+% of NIL earnings. And the WNBA significantly helps players on rookie contracts earn $ through appearances.

2) most college basketball athletes earn their Bachelors degree by the end of their 3rd season due to attending every Summer session [including both before their freshman season]. The question of educational "value" isn't about $ [cost of attendance] but about future value of Masters in their chosen field [versus Bachelors degree].

3) almost all overseas contracts include a beginning/end travel reimbursement/provision. 99+% include housing and generous per diem. Most include car service, local wireless phone, internet access, etc. The "expense" item mentioned simply doesn't apply to the overseas part of their work year [but would apply to WNBA portion].

4) limited earning window. Most players have a limited window to play ball. Every year in college means one less year as a pro. The vast majority of players will earn far more annually playing basketball [even if only a few years] than at any other future profession. Maximizing their years of playing professionally is sound logic.

5) time value of money. Since they earn more playing ball, turning on that cash flow sooner and having it last longer is a sound choice due to the time value of $. Better to earn the bigger paycheck now than earn it later.

The big issue isn't really cash. It is readiness and opportunity acquisition. Most players have a limited window to demonstrate their market value. Once the public perception of their value is diminished, it takes years to rehab. Players need to be ready to contribute [even if merely as a rotation player] from Day One. Players also need to be "marketable" from Day One. The ability to speak in public, avoid controversy, present a dynamic image, etc. In most ways, "off the court" earnings is as much about style is it is about playing substance. Example: Anna Kournikova was never really a top tier tennis player but over her career earned far more than any of her contemporaries [due to image]. LeBron James earns at least $10 off-court for every $1 he earns on-court. But even "non-marketable" players need to be ready. Numerous WNBA All-Stars who will never make much [if any] $ from endorsements earn $250,000-$500,000 annually in overseas Winter play simply because of that All-Star tag.. And the WNBA significantly helps players on rookie contracts earn $ through appearances.

2) most college basketball athletes earn their Bachelors degree by the end of their 3rd season due to attending every Summer session [including both before their freshman season]. The question of educational "value" isn't about $ [cost of attendance] but about future value of Masters in their chosen field [versus Bachelors degree].

3) almost all overseas contracts include a beginning/end travel reimbursement/provision. 99+% include housing and generous per diem. Most include car service, local wireless phone, internet access, etc. The "expense" item mentioned simply doesn't apply to the overseas part of their work year [but would apply to WNBA portion].

4) limited earning window. Most players have a limited window to play ball. Every year in college means one less year as a pro. The vast majority of players will earn far more annually playing basketball [even if only a few years] than at any other future profession. Maximizing their years of playing professionally is sound logic.

5) time value of money. Since they earn more playing ball, turning on that cash flow sooner and having it last longer is a sound choice due to the time value of $. Better to earn the bigger paycheck now than earn it later.

The big issue isn't really cash. It is readiness and opportunity acquisition. Most players have a limited window to demonstrate their market value. Once the public perception of their value is diminished, it takes years to rehab. Players need to be ready to contribute [even if merely as a rotation player] from Day One. Players also need to be "marketable" from Day One. The ability to speak in public, avoid controversy, present a dynamic image, etc. In most ways, "off the court" earnings is as much about style is it is about playing substance. Example: Anna Kournikova was never really a top tier tennis player but over her career earned far more than any of her contemporaries [due to image]. LeBron James earns at least $10 off-court for every $1 he earns on-court. But even "non-marketable" players need to be ready. Numerous WNBA All-Stars who will never make much [if any] $ from endorsements earn $250,000-$500,000 annually in overseas Winter play simply because of that All-Star tag.

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1) used "most" x 2 . Where is your evidence? Speculation without it. See dictionary. "those fees alone will trump 99+% of NIL earnings...." Really? There is only about 130-150 players in the whole of the WNBA. Just in college football alone there are quiet a few millionaires just for some of the QBs all off of NIL. wbb celebs are also starting to cash in on their popularity, many already make 6 figures, according to ESPN. I think my speculation is as good as yours.
2)"most basketball players earn...."Whereas DIV 1 athletes graduated 90%, across the board, government figures show that athletes have the same graduation rate as all students- 69%, and that is over 4 years, not 3. Speculation again.
3) sounds interesting, but again you use the word "most" and 99% freely. Maybe, maybe not. Being from Missouri originally, I would have to ask you to show me, not some pie in the sky blurb you read written by some China wannabe writer who wants to sell their product, but genuine evidence. Show me.
4) "Limited earning window". Really? Oh, pray tell. Just how long is it? How Long is a Chinaman. hmmm?
Tell that to some of the 40+ year old women still in the NBA? Do you really think giving up a year to help them learn how to use money wisely or invest their money would have helped them? Managing their years is not sound logic if they don't understand how to protect and reinvest in their own investments. Trust me, I don't think they should leave it to people like you.
5) Really poor advice, in my opinion. If I win the lottery today and am so ignorant I allow everyone else to take it away, or I just give it away and don't know how to invest or use the money wisely, what is the point, other than I have just farted away the lottery? But if I invest the winnings wisely and use the money wisely for myself and others, then I have spent my time wisely. Doesn't that really equate to the value of $ time? Your idea to just rush off and be someone sounds glorious, but it is just not practical. I am not saying to earn money as soon as possible, but the pie in the sky you spin, in my opinion, could be dangerous in the hands of inexperience. And please, don't be nave enough to say others will help them. In some cases, they might, but in other cases, when it comes to money, they just might not. Education, or knowing the difference, is paramount to understanding the difference, or, how did you refer to it, the value of money.