Some things never change
As Russia Digs In, What's the Risk of Nuclear War? 'It's Not Zero.'
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Last: 3 yr ago by whiterock
I loved Reagan. I thought he was the best President, sure things weren't perfect but he made us proud to be Americans again after the Viet Nam, Nixon, Carter string...LIB,MR BEARS said:
Some things never change
Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Good grief, man. Putin has been on the world stage for over 22 years. He is a known commodity. He's not a madman. 20+ years as a rational, cautious, calculating, tough, brutal, old-school power baron who rejects the open society in favor of old school power geopolitics via autarky. Has never flinched from defending or promoting Russian interests when the envelope afforded such. Invasions of neighbors happened after years of repeated warnings. WE created the conditions which forced him to act (in a way he wanted to act anyway but knew would be too costly).Osodecentx said:What if you are wrong? You don't say "Probably not a madman", or "likely not a madman". You state with certainty something that you can't know with certainty.Quote:Furthest thing from a madman, dude.Quote:Don't have time right now, but I'll get back to you later. You express opinion as facts and then draw conclusions from your opinions. For example, "Putin is not a mad man". I hope you are right, but this is your opinion.Quote:Fact 1: Russia has taken no action to invite Nato direct intervention in the conflict. Literally, Nato confirms it verbally every day.Quote:I count 1 fact in evidence, 3 predictions, and 6 opinions, many of which are dubious.Quote:
7 of those 10 items are facts in evidence.
The other 3 are obvious conclusions based on those facts.
Fact 2: Stingers and Javelins have been provided. They are sophisticated weapon systems. A Javelin & 10 rounds is a 7-digit spend.
Fact 3: Russia has taken no retaliatory action for initial, subsequent, and future (billions of dollars worth just approved) weapons deliveries, despite Javelins and Stingers being primarily responsible for bogging down the Russian offensive.
Fact 4: Putin is not a madman.
Fact 5: Given what we have seen thus far, not one single person on earth could possibly think Russia is a match for Nato.
Fact 6: Putin has never taken an action to invite a nuclear response from USA. In fact, no one on earth since 1946 has done so.
Fact 7: Russian tactical nukes are not currently a threat to US or Nato troops, as neither US nor Nato troops are engaged in Ukraine, nor are they engaged with Russian forces anywhere in the world. Tactical nukes are not intercontinental nukes. They are not intermediate nukes. They are battlefield nukes, artillery, dozens of miles range, not hundreds or thousands of miles range. (Know your weapons before you post, dude...)
Given the above facts, the following are obvious conclusions:
1.) Putin has 100% negative incentives to take actions that would invite Nato involvement in Ukraine. He's got all he can handle, barely, with Ukrainians in Ukraine. Only a madman would take action to invite NATO to wade in. (See Fact 4.) Miscalculation is not evidence of being a madman. Putin merely thought Ukraine would roll over like Chechnya, Transnistra, Georgia, Tajikistan, Crimea, Donetsk, etc..... So did literally everyone else.
2.) Given #1, the perverse incentives the existence of NATO afforded to Putin have been offset; he is so thoroughly engaged with the Ukrainian mess he created that he has literally no options for escalation other than to just launch nukes. (See Fact 4.) He does not have the military resources to open up a second front in the Baltics or Poland, etc.... He can't gain air superiority against Ukraine, so how is he going to bomb Nato bases? He has revealed the profound military weakness of Russia, who is having to purchase Chinese MREs due to outdated Russian stocks. Meaning? Putin can't feed his armies 50 miles from his own borders, fer crissakes. So he has ZERO conventional military options for escalation. It's either hug the cactus he's on, or nuke his way out of trouble. ( Again, before you argue the latter, see Fact 4.) The guy has been planning this for two decades. He's going to regroup and plot for the future, not end the future for Mother Russia.
3.) Given the Used Polish Migs are worth a few million dollars, and are carbon copies of equipment already in Ukrainian inventory. They could not possibly be any more escalatory than the Javelins & Stingers we have already provided. Moreover, see Items 1&2 - Putin is not going to respond to the transfer of Migs by attacking Nato and triggering Article 5. Nor is he going to proceed directly to strategic nuclear exchange. (See fact 4.) He's going to have to just take it, because he can't do anything about it, because he's holding a Ukranian tar baby.
We didn't think we'd be here 30 days ago.
We thought it'd all be over by now, Kiev ruled by a Russian puppet, Russian army starting to head home. But we're not where we thought we'd be. And because of that, we have a wonderful opportunity to cripple Russia for a generation. We cannot pass on this opportunity, for to do so undermines deterrence. We must make him rue the day he launched an unprovoked attack on a functioning democracy. We must make him understand that democracy wishes him no ill, but we will spare no rod when it comes to teaching him that wherever democracies exist they WILL be supplied inexhaustibly with the means to defend themselves.
Failure to spank Putie-Poot hard at this moment would be a strategic mistake that would cause him to question our resolve to defend the Baltics. We must show no mercy until Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine. When your adversary only respects power, show him power.....without so much as an American bootlace crossing the Ukrainian border.
So, what if you are incorrect? The UK and Russia were incorrect about Hitler.
You are being quite silly here with the false dilemma. Just stop. Putin is a lot of things. Crazy is not one of them.
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
I've quoted Mearsheimer a few times and he's right on a lot of things, particularly the key underlying dynamics of Putin's Russian nationalism and related Russian geopolitical interests. I wouldn't follow him all the way into letting Putin have Ukraine in the name of peace. I'm not convinced that will be the end of it. Putin has stated that he wants the former Warsaw Pact states out of Nato. I trust his word at that more than Mearsheimer's sober assessment on that point.
I do think that Russia will be with us at the end on China. The question is how long. If we don't grind up his army now, Putin will continue to plot & scheme to break up NATO. I think we have to take that off the table by showing him his military is simply not up to the task, so forget it.
And in all of this, China watches. If we short-arm Ukraine, it only emboldens another adversary that is already overestimating themselves. We have to show toughness, boldness, a willingness to call bluffs against Moscow, or Taiwan is a goner, and that is a far far bigger loss than Ukraine could ever hope to be.
I did do this kind o
That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Good grief, man. Putin has been on the world stage for over 22 years. He is a known commodity. He's not a madman. 20+ years as a rational, cautious, calculating, tough, brutal, old-school power baron who rejects the open society in favor of old school power geopolitics via autarky. Has never flinched from defending or promoting Russian interests when the envelope afforded such. Invasions of neighbors happened after years of repeated warnings. WE created the conditions which forced him to act (in a way he wanted to act anyway but knew would be too costly).Osodecentx said:What if you are wrong? You don't say "Probably not a madman", or "likely not a madman". You state with certainty something that you can't know with certainty.Quote:Furthest thing from a madman, dude.Quote:Don't have time right now, but I'll get back to you later. You express opinion as facts and then draw conclusions from your opinions. For example, "Putin is not a mad man". I hope you are right, but this is your opinion.Quote:Fact 1: Russia has taken no action to invite Nato direct intervention in the conflict. Literally, Nato confirms it verbally every day.Quote:I count 1 fact in evidence, 3 predictions, and 6 opinions, many of which are dubious.Quote:
7 of those 10 items are facts in evidence.
The other 3 are obvious conclusions based on those facts.
Fact 2: Stingers and Javelins have been provided. They are sophisticated weapon systems. A Javelin & 10 rounds is a 7-digit spend.
Fact 3: Russia has taken no retaliatory action for initial, subsequent, and future (billions of dollars worth just approved) weapons deliveries, despite Javelins and Stingers being primarily responsible for bogging down the Russian offensive.
Fact 4: Putin is not a madman.
Fact 5: Given what we have seen thus far, not one single person on earth could possibly think Russia is a match for Nato.
Fact 6: Putin has never taken an action to invite a nuclear response from USA. In fact, no one on earth since 1946 has done so.
Fact 7: Russian tactical nukes are not currently a threat to US or Nato troops, as neither US nor Nato troops are engaged in Ukraine, nor are they engaged with Russian forces anywhere in the world. Tactical nukes are not intercontinental nukes. They are not intermediate nukes. They are battlefield nukes, artillery, dozens of miles range, not hundreds or thousands of miles range. (Know your weapons before you post, dude...)
Given the above facts, the following are obvious conclusions:
1.) Putin has 100% negative incentives to take actions that would invite Nato involvement in Ukraine. He's got all he can handle, barely, with Ukrainians in Ukraine. Only a madman would take action to invite NATO to wade in. (See Fact 4.) Miscalculation is not evidence of being a madman. Putin merely thought Ukraine would roll over like Chechnya, Transnistra, Georgia, Tajikistan, Crimea, Donetsk, etc..... So did literally everyone else.
2.) Given #1, the perverse incentives the existence of NATO afforded to Putin have been offset; he is so thoroughly engaged with the Ukrainian mess he created that he has literally no options for escalation other than to just launch nukes. (See Fact 4.) He does not have the military resources to open up a second front in the Baltics or Poland, etc.... He can't gain air superiority against Ukraine, so how is he going to bomb Nato bases? He has revealed the profound military weakness of Russia, who is having to purchase Chinese MREs due to outdated Russian stocks. Meaning? Putin can't feed his armies 50 miles from his own borders, fer crissakes. So he has ZERO conventional military options for escalation. It's either hug the cactus he's on, or nuke his way out of trouble. ( Again, before you argue the latter, see Fact 4.) The guy has been planning this for two decades. He's going to regroup and plot for the future, not end the future for Mother Russia.
3.) Given the Used Polish Migs are worth a few million dollars, and are carbon copies of equipment already in Ukrainian inventory. They could not possibly be any more escalatory than the Javelins & Stingers we have already provided. Moreover, see Items 1&2 - Putin is not going to respond to the transfer of Migs by attacking Nato and triggering Article 5. Nor is he going to proceed directly to strategic nuclear exchange. (See fact 4.) He's going to have to just take it, because he can't do anything about it, because he's holding a Ukranian tar baby.
We didn't think we'd be here 30 days ago.
We thought it'd all be over by now, Kiev ruled by a Russian puppet, Russian army starting to head home. But we're not where we thought we'd be. And because of that, we have a wonderful opportunity to cripple Russia for a generation. We cannot pass on this opportunity, for to do so undermines deterrence. We must make him rue the day he launched an unprovoked attack on a functioning democracy. We must make him understand that democracy wishes him no ill, but we will spare no rod when it comes to teaching him that wherever democracies exist they WILL be supplied inexhaustibly with the means to defend themselves.
Failure to spank Putie-Poot hard at this moment would be a strategic mistake that would cause him to question our resolve to defend the Baltics. We must show no mercy until Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine. When your adversary only respects power, show him power.....without so much as an American bootlace crossing the Ukrainian border.
So, what if you are incorrect? The UK and Russia were incorrect about Hitler.
You are being quite silly here with the false dilemma. Just stop. Putin is a lot of things. Crazy is not one of them.
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
You seam to have a great deal of respect for Mearsheimer yet, you believe he is wrong in some aspects.
You however, do not seem to see that you could be wrong or that your opinions, however well thought out, are not facts.
Interesting
You however, do not seem to see that you could be wrong or that your opinions, however well thought out, are not facts.
Interesting
I agree with your assessment. I do believe that Putin will rue the day he got in bed with Xi. That said, I do not think that Putin is as master of strategist as he thinks. I believe he is over his head with Xi, Xi is not Merkle, Obama or Biden.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Good grief, man. Putin has been on the world stage for over 22 years. He is a known commodity. He's not a madman. 20+ years as a rational, cautious, calculating, tough, brutal, old-school power baron who rejects the open society in favor of old school power geopolitics via autarky. Has never flinched from defending or promoting Russian interests when the envelope afforded such. Invasions of neighbors happened after years of repeated warnings. WE created the conditions which forced him to act (in a way he wanted to act anyway but knew would be too costly).Osodecentx said:What if you are wrong? You don't say "Probably not a madman", or "likely not a madman". You state with certainty something that you can't know with certainty.Quote:Furthest thing from a madman, dude.Quote:Don't have time right now, but I'll get back to you later. You express opinion as facts and then draw conclusions from your opinions. For example, "Putin is not a mad man". I hope you are right, but this is your opinion.Quote:Fact 1: Russia has taken no action to invite Nato direct intervention in the conflict. Literally, Nato confirms it verbally every day.Quote:I count 1 fact in evidence, 3 predictions, and 6 opinions, many of which are dubious.Quote:
7 of those 10 items are facts in evidence.
The other 3 are obvious conclusions based on those facts.
Fact 2: Stingers and Javelins have been provided. They are sophisticated weapon systems. A Javelin & 10 rounds is a 7-digit spend.
Fact 3: Russia has taken no retaliatory action for initial, subsequent, and future (billions of dollars worth just approved) weapons deliveries, despite Javelins and Stingers being primarily responsible for bogging down the Russian offensive.
Fact 4: Putin is not a madman.
Fact 5: Given what we have seen thus far, not one single person on earth could possibly think Russia is a match for Nato.
Fact 6: Putin has never taken an action to invite a nuclear response from USA. In fact, no one on earth since 1946 has done so.
Fact 7: Russian tactical nukes are not currently a threat to US or Nato troops, as neither US nor Nato troops are engaged in Ukraine, nor are they engaged with Russian forces anywhere in the world. Tactical nukes are not intercontinental nukes. They are not intermediate nukes. They are battlefield nukes, artillery, dozens of miles range, not hundreds or thousands of miles range. (Know your weapons before you post, dude...)
Given the above facts, the following are obvious conclusions:
1.) Putin has 100% negative incentives to take actions that would invite Nato involvement in Ukraine. He's got all he can handle, barely, with Ukrainians in Ukraine. Only a madman would take action to invite NATO to wade in. (See Fact 4.) Miscalculation is not evidence of being a madman. Putin merely thought Ukraine would roll over like Chechnya, Transnistra, Georgia, Tajikistan, Crimea, Donetsk, etc..... So did literally everyone else.
2.) Given #1, the perverse incentives the existence of NATO afforded to Putin have been offset; he is so thoroughly engaged with the Ukrainian mess he created that he has literally no options for escalation other than to just launch nukes. (See Fact 4.) He does not have the military resources to open up a second front in the Baltics or Poland, etc.... He can't gain air superiority against Ukraine, so how is he going to bomb Nato bases? He has revealed the profound military weakness of Russia, who is having to purchase Chinese MREs due to outdated Russian stocks. Meaning? Putin can't feed his armies 50 miles from his own borders, fer crissakes. So he has ZERO conventional military options for escalation. It's either hug the cactus he's on, or nuke his way out of trouble. ( Again, before you argue the latter, see Fact 4.) The guy has been planning this for two decades. He's going to regroup and plot for the future, not end the future for Mother Russia.
3.) Given the Used Polish Migs are worth a few million dollars, and are carbon copies of equipment already in Ukrainian inventory. They could not possibly be any more escalatory than the Javelins & Stingers we have already provided. Moreover, see Items 1&2 - Putin is not going to respond to the transfer of Migs by attacking Nato and triggering Article 5. Nor is he going to proceed directly to strategic nuclear exchange. (See fact 4.) He's going to have to just take it, because he can't do anything about it, because he's holding a Ukranian tar baby.
We didn't think we'd be here 30 days ago.
We thought it'd all be over by now, Kiev ruled by a Russian puppet, Russian army starting to head home. But we're not where we thought we'd be. And because of that, we have a wonderful opportunity to cripple Russia for a generation. We cannot pass on this opportunity, for to do so undermines deterrence. We must make him rue the day he launched an unprovoked attack on a functioning democracy. We must make him understand that democracy wishes him no ill, but we will spare no rod when it comes to teaching him that wherever democracies exist they WILL be supplied inexhaustibly with the means to defend themselves.
Failure to spank Putie-Poot hard at this moment would be a strategic mistake that would cause him to question our resolve to defend the Baltics. We must show no mercy until Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine. When your adversary only respects power, show him power.....without so much as an American bootlace crossing the Ukrainian border.
So, what if you are incorrect? The UK and Russia were incorrect about Hitler.
You are being quite silly here with the false dilemma. Just stop. Putin is a lot of things. Crazy is not one of them.
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
I've quoted Mearsheimer a few times and he's right on a lot of things, particularly the key underlying dynamics of Putin's Russian nationalism and related Russian geopolitical interests. I wouldn't follow him all the way into letting Putin have Ukraine in the name of peace. I'm not convinced that will be the end of it. Putin has stated that he wants the former Warsaw Pact states out of Nato. I trust his word at that more than Mearsheimer's sober assessment on that point.
I do think that Russia will be with us at the end on China. The question is how long. If we don't grind up his army now, Putin will continue to plot & scheme to break up NATO. I think we have to take that off the table by showing him his military is simply not up to the task, so forget it.
And in all of this, China watches. If we short-arm Ukraine, it only emboldens another adversary that is already overestimating themselves. We have to show toughness, boldness, a willingness to call bluffs against Moscow, or Taiwan is a goner, and that is a far far bigger loss than Ukraine could ever hope to be.
I did do this kind o
People put Taiwan in the same bucket as Ukraine and that cannot be further from the truth. Taiwan is too valuable to let China take. Taiwan is worth US sea, air and ground power to be involved. Taiwan produces a majority of the computer chips in the world and letting China control tech is a death knell to the west.
So, Russia may mean higher fuel costs and having to re-start our energy production, but we can do that. I am not sure we can off set the loss of Taiwan's tech contributions in a timeframe to make a difference.
But, who knows. According to Biden and some on here, China is not our enemy or even a competitor, they are a trading partner.
Doc Holliday said:
Walk on with that noise. That's some straight up Russian propaganda. They literally did that **** during the Cold War.
You do realize that when you're quibbling over the difference between assessment or guess, you're pretty much out of ammo, don't you?Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Good grief, man. Putin has been on the world stage for over 22 years. He is a known commodity. He's not a madman. 20+ years as a rational, cautious, calculating, tough, brutal, old-school power baron who rejects the open society in favor of old school power geopolitics via autarky. Has never flinched from defending or promoting Russian interests when the envelope afforded such. Invasions of neighbors happened after years of repeated warnings. WE created the conditions which forced him to act (in a way he wanted to act anyway but knew would be too costly).Osodecentx said:What if you are wrong? You don't say "Probably not a madman", or "likely not a madman". You state with certainty something that you can't know with certainty.Quote:Furthest thing from a madman, dude.Quote:Don't have time right now, but I'll get back to you later. You express opinion as facts and then draw conclusions from your opinions. For example, "Putin is not a mad man". I hope you are right, but this is your opinion.Quote:Fact 1: Russia has taken no action to invite Nato direct intervention in the conflict. Literally, Nato confirms it verbally every day.Quote:I count 1 fact in evidence, 3 predictions, and 6 opinions, many of which are dubious.Quote:
7 of those 10 items are facts in evidence.
The other 3 are obvious conclusions based on those facts.
Fact 2: Stingers and Javelins have been provided. They are sophisticated weapon systems. A Javelin & 10 rounds is a 7-digit spend.
Fact 3: Russia has taken no retaliatory action for initial, subsequent, and future (billions of dollars worth just approved) weapons deliveries, despite Javelins and Stingers being primarily responsible for bogging down the Russian offensive.
Fact 4: Putin is not a madman.
Fact 5: Given what we have seen thus far, not one single person on earth could possibly think Russia is a match for Nato.
Fact 6: Putin has never taken an action to invite a nuclear response from USA. In fact, no one on earth since 1946 has done so.
Fact 7: Russian tactical nukes are not currently a threat to US or Nato troops, as neither US nor Nato troops are engaged in Ukraine, nor are they engaged with Russian forces anywhere in the world. Tactical nukes are not intercontinental nukes. They are not intermediate nukes. They are battlefield nukes, artillery, dozens of miles range, not hundreds or thousands of miles range. (Know your weapons before you post, dude...)
Given the above facts, the following are obvious conclusions:
1.) Putin has 100% negative incentives to take actions that would invite Nato involvement in Ukraine. He's got all he can handle, barely, with Ukrainians in Ukraine. Only a madman would take action to invite NATO to wade in. (See Fact 4.) Miscalculation is not evidence of being a madman. Putin merely thought Ukraine would roll over like Chechnya, Transnistra, Georgia, Tajikistan, Crimea, Donetsk, etc..... So did literally everyone else.
2.) Given #1, the perverse incentives the existence of NATO afforded to Putin have been offset; he is so thoroughly engaged with the Ukrainian mess he created that he has literally no options for escalation other than to just launch nukes. (See Fact 4.) He does not have the military resources to open up a second front in the Baltics or Poland, etc.... He can't gain air superiority against Ukraine, so how is he going to bomb Nato bases? He has revealed the profound military weakness of Russia, who is having to purchase Chinese MREs due to outdated Russian stocks. Meaning? Putin can't feed his armies 50 miles from his own borders, fer crissakes. So he has ZERO conventional military options for escalation. It's either hug the cactus he's on, or nuke his way out of trouble. ( Again, before you argue the latter, see Fact 4.) The guy has been planning this for two decades. He's going to regroup and plot for the future, not end the future for Mother Russia.
3.) Given the Used Polish Migs are worth a few million dollars, and are carbon copies of equipment already in Ukrainian inventory. They could not possibly be any more escalatory than the Javelins & Stingers we have already provided. Moreover, see Items 1&2 - Putin is not going to respond to the transfer of Migs by attacking Nato and triggering Article 5. Nor is he going to proceed directly to strategic nuclear exchange. (See fact 4.) He's going to have to just take it, because he can't do anything about it, because he's holding a Ukranian tar baby.
We didn't think we'd be here 30 days ago.
We thought it'd all be over by now, Kiev ruled by a Russian puppet, Russian army starting to head home. But we're not where we thought we'd be. And because of that, we have a wonderful opportunity to cripple Russia for a generation. We cannot pass on this opportunity, for to do so undermines deterrence. We must make him rue the day he launched an unprovoked attack on a functioning democracy. We must make him understand that democracy wishes him no ill, but we will spare no rod when it comes to teaching him that wherever democracies exist they WILL be supplied inexhaustibly with the means to defend themselves.
Failure to spank Putie-Poot hard at this moment would be a strategic mistake that would cause him to question our resolve to defend the Baltics. We must show no mercy until Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine. When your adversary only respects power, show him power.....without so much as an American bootlace crossing the Ukrainian border.
So, what if you are incorrect? The UK and Russia were incorrect about Hitler.
You are being quite silly here with the false dilemma. Just stop. Putin is a lot of things. Crazy is not one of them.
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
In the intel community, a disagreement over assessment is worked out by having the minority view get a call out in text, or if significant enough in substance or vote, an inset box.
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
whiterock said:You do realize that when you're quibbling over the difference between assessment or guess, you're pretty much out of ammo, don't you?Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Good grief, man. Putin has been on the world stage for over 22 years. He is a known commodity. He's not a madman. 20+ years as a rational, cautious, calculating, tough, brutal, old-school power baron who rejects the open society in favor of old school power geopolitics via autarky. Has never flinched from defending or promoting Russian interests when the envelope afforded such. Invasions of neighbors happened after years of repeated warnings. WE created the conditions which forced him to act (in a way he wanted to act anyway but knew would be too costly).Osodecentx said:What if you are wrong? You don't say "Probably not a madman", or "likely not a madman". You state with certainty something that you can't know with certainty.Quote:Furthest thing from a madman, dude.Quote:Don't have time right now, but I'll get back to you later. You express opinion as facts and then draw conclusions from your opinions. For example, "Putin is not a mad man". I hope you are right, but this is your opinion.Quote:Fact 1: Russia has taken no action to invite Nato direct intervention in the conflict. Literally, Nato confirms it verbally every day.Quote:I count 1 fact in evidence, 3 predictions, and 6 opinions, many of which are dubious.Quote:
7 of those 10 items are facts in evidence.
The other 3 are obvious conclusions based on those facts.
Fact 2: Stingers and Javelins have been provided. They are sophisticated weapon systems. A Javelin & 10 rounds is a 7-digit spend.
Fact 3: Russia has taken no retaliatory action for initial, subsequent, and future (billions of dollars worth just approved) weapons deliveries, despite Javelins and Stingers being primarily responsible for bogging down the Russian offensive.
Fact 4: Putin is not a madman.
Fact 5: Given what we have seen thus far, not one single person on earth could possibly think Russia is a match for Nato.
Fact 6: Putin has never taken an action to invite a nuclear response from USA. In fact, no one on earth since 1946 has done so.
Fact 7: Russian tactical nukes are not currently a threat to US or Nato troops, as neither US nor Nato troops are engaged in Ukraine, nor are they engaged with Russian forces anywhere in the world. Tactical nukes are not intercontinental nukes. They are not intermediate nukes. They are battlefield nukes, artillery, dozens of miles range, not hundreds or thousands of miles range. (Know your weapons before you post, dude...)
Given the above facts, the following are obvious conclusions:
1.) Putin has 100% negative incentives to take actions that would invite Nato involvement in Ukraine. He's got all he can handle, barely, with Ukrainians in Ukraine. Only a madman would take action to invite NATO to wade in. (See Fact 4.) Miscalculation is not evidence of being a madman. Putin merely thought Ukraine would roll over like Chechnya, Transnistra, Georgia, Tajikistan, Crimea, Donetsk, etc..... So did literally everyone else.
2.) Given #1, the perverse incentives the existence of NATO afforded to Putin have been offset; he is so thoroughly engaged with the Ukrainian mess he created that he has literally no options for escalation other than to just launch nukes. (See Fact 4.) He does not have the military resources to open up a second front in the Baltics or Poland, etc.... He can't gain air superiority against Ukraine, so how is he going to bomb Nato bases? He has revealed the profound military weakness of Russia, who is having to purchase Chinese MREs due to outdated Russian stocks. Meaning? Putin can't feed his armies 50 miles from his own borders, fer crissakes. So he has ZERO conventional military options for escalation. It's either hug the cactus he's on, or nuke his way out of trouble. ( Again, before you argue the latter, see Fact 4.) The guy has been planning this for two decades. He's going to regroup and plot for the future, not end the future for Mother Russia.
3.) Given the Used Polish Migs are worth a few million dollars, and are carbon copies of equipment already in Ukrainian inventory. They could not possibly be any more escalatory than the Javelins & Stingers we have already provided. Moreover, see Items 1&2 - Putin is not going to respond to the transfer of Migs by attacking Nato and triggering Article 5. Nor is he going to proceed directly to strategic nuclear exchange. (See fact 4.) He's going to have to just take it, because he can't do anything about it, because he's holding a Ukranian tar baby.
We didn't think we'd be here 30 days ago.
We thought it'd all be over by now, Kiev ruled by a Russian puppet, Russian army starting to head home. But we're not where we thought we'd be. And because of that, we have a wonderful opportunity to cripple Russia for a generation. We cannot pass on this opportunity, for to do so undermines deterrence. We must make him rue the day he launched an unprovoked attack on a functioning democracy. We must make him understand that democracy wishes him no ill, but we will spare no rod when it comes to teaching him that wherever democracies exist they WILL be supplied inexhaustibly with the means to defend themselves.
Failure to spank Putie-Poot hard at this moment would be a strategic mistake that would cause him to question our resolve to defend the Baltics. We must show no mercy until Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine. When your adversary only respects power, show him power.....without so much as an American bootlace crossing the Ukrainian border.
So, what if you are incorrect? The UK and Russia were incorrect about Hitler.
You are being quite silly here with the false dilemma. Just stop. Putin is a lot of things. Crazy is not one of them.
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
In the intel community, a disagreement over assessment is worked out by having the minority view get a call out in text, or if significant enough in substance or vote, an inset box.
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
Good question.
If he is not crazy, I believe it is as simple as when he has no option.
Ukraine is not that. This is his choice, he can take Crimea and the Russian dominant provinces and be done. If he chooses. Even if NATO rolls into Ukraibe-west.
Until Putin has no option, I dont belive nukes are on the table short of keeping us in check. Actual use would only happen if we went into Russia proper or tried to take him out.
There is not a realistic scenario here where he does not have an option. First, you have to understand what he's doing. He's not trying to take over the whole country. He's trying to force the UKR regime into agreeing to Russian terms (no NATO, no EU, etc.....). And he will also extract pieces of the country, chiefly land access to Crimea. The entirety of eastern Ukraine east of the Dneiper is on the table. It would give a buffer between Russia and the core of Ukranian recalcitrance in the west of that country.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:You do realize that when you're quibbling over the difference between assessment or guess, you're pretty much out of ammo, don't you?Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Osodecent said:
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
In the intel community, a disagreement over assessment is worked out by having the minority view get a call out in text, or if significant enough in substance or vote, an inset box.
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
Good question.
If he is not crazy, I believe it is as simple as when he has no option.
Ukraine is not that. This is his choice, he can take Crimea and the Russian dominant provinces and be done. If he chooses. Even if NATO rolls into Ukraibe-west.
Until Putin has no option, I dont belive nukes are on the table short of keeping us in check. Actual use would only happen if we went into Russia proper or tried to take him out.
And that brings us to an unreported dynamic at play. Why is Putin shelling cities rather than making infantry assaults on them? There is a rational reason. He's trying to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people, to separate them from their "unreasonable" government, unreasonable meaning "unwilling to negotiate to spare the people." And of course there is a fairly large kernel of truth in that - Zelensky is not willing to cede to Russian demands because, at this moment, he has a position of relative advantage. Putin of course realizes that, which is why he's not even willing to come to the table.
But that slender UKR advantage will not last forever. Russia is a nation of 150m people; UKR is a nation of 40m people. And Russian GDP is nearly 10x that of UKR. So even though UKR appears to be holding its own, at a casual glance......the reality is that it's success in stopping the Russian invasion has left it engaged in a war of attrition that it cannot win. How realistic are the scenarios where we could be expect to see UKR take the initiative and drive the Russian Army out? Answer: not terribly.
So our goal is to make the still likely Russian success (success defined as an outcome which improves Russian position over the status quo ante) be as hard fought and painful as it could be, to make Putin and XI question their capabilities and have far greater respect for the resolve of their adversaries. That is what deterrence looks like. But the window is small and it will close rapidly if we do not act. Biden senses that, or he would not be talking about the Turkish SAMs for F-35 deal, & probably others not made public.
But Putin has already delivered a powerful deterrent lesson upon Ukraine. No matter what is the outcome, Russia will rebuild and be ready to come again if UKR starts taking actions that threaten Russian interests. Could UKR summon a similar resolve to stand again against Goliath? Wouldn't it be wiser for UKR to be a little more cautious about flirting with the West? All one has to do is look at Oso's arguments for caution and see how that dynamic plays out. UKR will NOT want to be cavalier with actions that could invite repeat what it is incurring right now,. Only a madman would act in such a way. (wink).
So Putin has lots of options. He could declare victory tomorrow, keep what's he's seized in Donbass and Crimean approaches and send the rest of his troops home, and he's in a better position than he was 6 weeks ago. Ukraine would be in no position to go on the offensive to take it back. Russia could consolidate its gains, dare UKR do do anything about it, and prepare to come again in a decade or so. That's how the Mongols played the game....and the Pechenegs, and the Khazars, and the........ Putin is just doing what the strong do to the weak, when the weak forget to pay tribute.
FURK PUTIN! I hope his mother sucks cocks in Hell. He is a putrid human being!!!whiterock said:There is not a realistic scenario here where he does not have an option. First, you have to understand what he's doing. He's not trying to take over the whole country. He's trying to force the UKR regime into agreeing to Russian terms (no NATO, no EU, etc.....). And he will also extract pieces of the country, chiefly land access to Crimea. The entirety of eastern Ukraine east of the Dneiper is on the table. It would give a buffer between Russia and the core of Ukranian recalcitrance in the west of that country.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:You do realize that when you're quibbling over the difference between assessment or guess, you're pretty much out of ammo, don't you?Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Osodecent said:
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
In the intel community, a disagreement over assessment is worked out by having the minority view get a call out in text, or if significant enough in substance or vote, an inset box.
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
Good question.
If he is not crazy, I believe it is as simple as when he has no option.
Ukraine is not that. This is his choice, he can take Crimea and the Russian dominant provinces and be done. If he chooses. Even if NATO rolls into Ukraibe-west.
Until Putin has no option, I dont belive nukes are on the table short of keeping us in check. Actual use would only happen if we went into Russia proper or tried to take him out.
And that brings us to an unreported dynamic at play. Why is Putin shelling cities rather than making infantry assaults on them? There is a rational reason. He's trying to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people, to separate them from their "unreasonable" government, unreasonable meaning "unwilling to negotiate to spare the people." And of course there is a fairly large kernel of truth in that - Zelensky is not willing to cede to Russian demands because, at this moment, he has a position of relative advantage. Putin of course realizes that, which is why he's not even willing to come to the table.
But that slender UKR advantage will not last forever. Russia is a nation of 150m people; UKR is a nation of 40m people. And Russian GDP is nearly 10x that of UKR. So even though UKR appears to be holding its own, at a casual glance......the reality is that it's success in stopping the Russian invasion has left it engaged in a war of attrition that it cannot win. How realistic are the scenarios where we could be expect to see UKR take the initiative and drive the Russian Army out? Answer: not terribly.
So our goal is to make the still likely Russian success (success defined as an outcome which improves Russian position over the status quo ante) be as hard fought and painful as it could be, to make Putin and XI question their capabilities and have far greater respect for the resolve of their adversaries. That is what deterrence looks like. But the window is small and it will close rapidly if we do not act. Biden senses that, or he would not be talking about the Turkish SAMs for F-35 deal, & probably others not made public.
But Putin has already delivered a powerful deterrent lesson upon Ukraine. No matter what is the outcome, Russia will rebuild and be ready to come again if UKR starts taking actions that threaten Russian interests. Could UKR summon a similar resolve to stand again against Goliath? Wouldn't it be wiser for UKR to be a little more cautious about flirting with the West? All one has to do is look at Oso's arguments for caution and see how that dynamic plays out. UKR will NOT want to be cavalier with actions that could invite repeat what it is incurring right now,. Only a madman would act in such a way. (wink).
So Putin has lots of options. He could declare victory tomorrow, keep what's he's seized in Donbass and Crimean approaches and send the rest of his troops home, and he's in a better position than he was 6 weeks ago. Ukraine would be in no position to go on the offensive to take it back. Russia could consolidate its gains, dare UKR do do anything about it, and prepare to come again in a decade or so. That's how the Mongols played the game....and the Pechenegs, and the Khazars, and the........ Putin is just doing what the strong do to the weak, when the weak forget to pay tribute.
"Stand with anyone when he is right; Stand with him while he is right and part with him when he goes wrong." - Abraham Lincoln
Putin will be deposed in two weeks.
Only if Ukrainians successfully counter attack .Amal Shuq-Up said:
Putin will be deposed in two weeks.
And without air cover that is highly unlikely .
Canada2017 said:Only if Ukrainians successfully counter attack .Amal Shuq-Up said:
Putin will be deposed in two weeks.
And without air cover that is highly unlikely .
I'd hate to be his food taster.
This meme is aimed at corrupt US politicians who won't call out our own aggression that's killed a lot of innocent people but are eager to act like Russia is alone in war crimes.Canon said:Doc Holliday said:
Walk on with that noise. That's some straight up Russian propaganda. They literally did that **** during the Cold War.
Remember when Obama bombed a Doctors Without Borders hospital, then apologized and everyone was like "awe it's okay you didn't know"?
I'm not excusing Russia, I'm just pissed that we're only outraged when it's not us, at least not enough to make a change.
That meme could literally have "police" at the top and the 25 dead black criminals who violently resisted arrest in the chair. Then "BLM" at the bottom. That's what that meme is worth and how twisted it is.
The US is allowed to take over countries, bomb the **** out of thousands of innocent civilians and destabilize the a region without anyone acting like its a humanitarian crisis.Canon said:
That meme could literally have "police" at the top and the 25 dead black criminals who violently resisted arrest in the chair. Then "BLM" at the bottom. That's what that meme is worth and how twisted it is.
You're cool with that?
I didn't take you for a John McCain warhawk type.
HuMcK said:
So Giuliani made all those trips to Ukraine and met those sanctioned Russian spies, but they didn't have anything to tell him, and miraculously the exact info they were after the whole time was in the possession of a blind computer repair shop owner...
Sure. In unrelated news, I have some fantastic financial opportunities available, you just have to send me the money up front...
I never doubted the emails are real, but I am dumbfounded that anyone believes the story of how they got them. Not like we didn't all watch Russia hack Trump opponents in 2016 or anything.
Rudy Giuliani &/or his proxies did not help us authenticate emails from the laptop cache.
— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) March 21, 2022
The emails we cited are being examined by DOJ as part of its Hunter Biden probe.
They were authenticated by people familiar with the individual emails & the probe. https://t.co/53mRqhw6dh https://t.co/M2AZzXqFlF
I don't know. My point is - neither do you. You pontificate in a series of declarative sentences and claim perfect knowledge of Putin's mind and motivations. BTW, I agree with you but only if you say "probably".whiterock said:Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Good grief, man. Putin has been on the world stage for over 22 years. He is a known commodity. He's not a madman. 20+ years as a rational, cautious, calculating, tough, brutal, old-school power baron who rejects the open society in favor of old school power geopolitics via autarky. Has never flinched from defending or promoting Russian interests when the envelope afforded such. Invasions of neighbors happened after years of repeated warnings. WE created the conditions which forced him to act (in a way he wanted to act anyway but knew would be too costly).Osodecentx said:What if you are wrong? You don't say "Probably not a madman", or "likely not a madman". You state with certainty something that you can't know with certainty.Quote:Furthest thing from a madman, dude.Quote:Don't have time right now, but I'll get back to you later. You express opinion as facts and then draw conclusions from your opinions. For example, "Putin is not a mad man". I hope you are right, but this is your opinion.Quote:Fact 1: Russia has taken no action to invite Nato direct intervention in the conflict. Literally, Nato confirms it verbally every day.Quote:I count 1 fact in evidence, 3 predictions, and 6 opinions, many of which are dubious.Quote:
7 of those 10 items are facts in evidence.
The other 3 are obvious conclusions based on those facts.
Fact 2: Stingers and Javelins have been provided. They are sophisticated weapon systems. A Javelin & 10 rounds is a 7-digit spend.
Fact 3: Russia has taken no retaliatory action for initial, subsequent, and future (billions of dollars worth just approved) weapons deliveries, despite Javelins and Stingers being primarily responsible for bogging down the Russian offensive.
Fact 4: Putin is not a madman.
Fact 5: Given what we have seen thus far, not one single person on earth could possibly think Russia is a match for Nato.
Fact 6: Putin has never taken an action to invite a nuclear response from USA. In fact, no one on earth since 1946 has done so.
Fact 7: Russian tactical nukes are not currently a threat to US or Nato troops, as neither US nor Nato troops are engaged in Ukraine, nor are they engaged with Russian forces anywhere in the world. Tactical nukes are not intercontinental nukes. They are not intermediate nukes. They are battlefield nukes, artillery, dozens of miles range, not hundreds or thousands of miles range. (Know your weapons before you post, dude...)
Given the above facts, the following are obvious conclusions:
1.) Putin has 100% negative incentives to take actions that would invite Nato involvement in Ukraine. He's got all he can handle, barely, with Ukrainians in Ukraine. Only a madman would take action to invite NATO to wade in. (See Fact 4.) Miscalculation is not evidence of being a madman. Putin merely thought Ukraine would roll over like Chechnya, Transnistra, Georgia, Tajikistan, Crimea, Donetsk, etc..... So did literally everyone else.
2.) Given #1, the perverse incentives the existence of NATO afforded to Putin have been offset; he is so thoroughly engaged with the Ukrainian mess he created that he has literally no options for escalation other than to just launch nukes. (See Fact 4.) He does not have the military resources to open up a second front in the Baltics or Poland, etc.... He can't gain air superiority against Ukraine, so how is he going to bomb Nato bases? He has revealed the profound military weakness of Russia, who is having to purchase Chinese MREs due to outdated Russian stocks. Meaning? Putin can't feed his armies 50 miles from his own borders, fer crissakes. So he has ZERO conventional military options for escalation. It's either hug the cactus he's on, or nuke his way out of trouble. ( Again, before you argue the latter, see Fact 4.) The guy has been planning this for two decades. He's going to regroup and plot for the future, not end the future for Mother Russia.
3.) Given the Used Polish Migs are worth a few million dollars, and are carbon copies of equipment already in Ukrainian inventory. They could not possibly be any more escalatory than the Javelins & Stingers we have already provided. Moreover, see Items 1&2 - Putin is not going to respond to the transfer of Migs by attacking Nato and triggering Article 5. Nor is he going to proceed directly to strategic nuclear exchange. (See fact 4.) He's going to have to just take it, because he can't do anything about it, because he's holding a Ukranian tar baby.
We didn't think we'd be here 30 days ago.
We thought it'd all be over by now, Kiev ruled by a Russian puppet, Russian army starting to head home. But we're not where we thought we'd be. And because of that, we have a wonderful opportunity to cripple Russia for a generation. We cannot pass on this opportunity, for to do so undermines deterrence. We must make him rue the day he launched an unprovoked attack on a functioning democracy. We must make him understand that democracy wishes him no ill, but we will spare no rod when it comes to teaching him that wherever democracies exist they WILL be supplied inexhaustibly with the means to defend themselves.
Failure to spank Putie-Poot hard at this moment would be a strategic mistake that would cause him to question our resolve to defend the Baltics. We must show no mercy until Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine. When your adversary only respects power, show him power.....without so much as an American bootlace crossing the Ukrainian border.
So, what if you are incorrect? The UK and Russia were incorrect about Hitler.
You are being quite silly here with the false dilemma. Just stop. Putin is a lot of things. Crazy is not one of them.
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
IMO, you make a well informed guess and I agree .... probably
Pretty good analysis. 2 questions:whiterock said:But that slender UKR advantage will not last forever. Russia is a nation of 150m people; UKR is a nation of 40m people. And Russian GDP is nearly 10x that of UKR. So even though UKR appears to be holding its own, at a casual glance......the reality is that it's success in stopping the Russian invasion has left it engaged in a war of attrition that it cannot win. How realistic are the scenarios where we could be expect to see UKR take the initiative and drive the Russian Army out? Answer: not terribly.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:You do realize that when you're quibbling over the difference between assessment or guess, you're pretty much out of ammo, don't you?Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Osodecent said:
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
In the intel community, a disagreement over assessment is worked out by having the minority view get a call out in text, or if significant enough in substance or vote, an inset box.
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
Good question.
If he is not crazy, I believe it is as simple as when he has no option.
Ukraine is not that. This is his choice, he can take Crimea and the Russian dominant provinces and be done. If he chooses. Even if NATO rolls into Ukraibe-west.
Until Putin has no option, I dont belive nukes are on the table short of keeping us in check. Actual use would only happen if we went into Russia proper or tried to take him out.
So Putin has lots of options. He could declare victory tomorrow, keep what's he's seized in Donbass and Crimean approaches and send the rest of his troops home, and he's in a better position than he was 6 weeks ago. Ukraine would be in no position to go on the offensive to take it back. Russia could consolidate its gains, dare UKR do do anything about it, and prepare to come again in a decade or so. That's how the Mongols played the game....and the Pechenegs, and the Khazars, and the........ Putin is just doing what the strong do to the weak, when the weak forget to pay tribute.
1. What do you think the Russian GDP is after sanctions, say in 1 month or 6 months? I think the world's sanctions are devastating the Russian economy.
2. How many soldiers per 1,000 citizens does it take to occupy a country? IOW, what number of Russian troops won't be going home? Do you think UKR will just give up on Donbass?
I'm seeing reports that Ukraine military has counterattacked Russia around Kiev and pushed Russia back about 20 KMCanada2017 said:Only if Ukrainians successfully counter attack .Amal Shuq-Up said:
Putin will be deposed in two weeks.
And without air cover that is highly unlikely .
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-russia-profiling-world-leaders-intelligence-matters/whiterock said:RMF5630 said:whiterock said:You do realize that when you're quibbling over the difference between assessment or guess, you're pretty much out of ammo, don't you?Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Osodecent said:
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
In the intel community, a disagreement over assessment is worked out by having the minority view get a call out in text, or if significant enough in substance or vote, an inset box.
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
Good question.
If he is not crazy, I believe it is as simple as when he has no option.
Ukraine is not that. This is his choice, he can take Crimea and the Russian dominant provinces and be done. If he chooses. Even if NATO rolls into Ukraibe-west.
Until Putin has no option, I dont belive nukes are on the table short of keeping us in check. Actual use would only happen if we went into Russia proper or tried to take him out.
UKR will NOT want to be cavalier with actions that could invite repeat what it is incurring right now,. Only a madman would act in such a way. (wink).
In this episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell speaks with Kenneth Dekleva, a psychiatrist, former U.S. Department of State Regional Medical Officer, and Senior Fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, about how experts compile psychological profiles of world leaders. Morell and Dekleva discuss the formative experiences and core characteristics of Russian president Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamanei.
So, he will not go nuclear, my point. The question was the threshold for him to go nuclear, my answer is when he has no other option but to lose the Motherland. As you said, that is not a threat right now, so I believe there is no point where Putin goes nuclear in this invasion, even if NATO joins in. Cross into Russia, glow time. Clear enough?whiterock said:There is not a realistic scenario here where he does not have an option. First, you have to understand what he's doing. He's not trying to take over the whole country. He's trying to force the UKR regime into agreeing to Russian terms (no NATO, no EU, etc.....). And he will also extract pieces of the country, chiefly land access to Crimea. The entirety of eastern Ukraine east of the Dneiper is on the table. It would give a buffer between Russia and the core of Ukranian recalcitrance in the west of that country.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:You do realize that when you're quibbling over the difference between assessment or guess, you're pretty much out of ammo, don't you?Osodecentx said:That is an informed guess, not perfect knowledge.whiterock said:Not a guess at all. A sound assessment rooted in relevant history and a thorough knowledge and experience in foreign affairs, to include countless hours bantering back & forth with real live Soviet diplomats about affairs of the day in the Cold War. They were admirably fearless in defending their position, even that day when they shot down KAL-007.Osodecentx said:You used the word "probably" concerning the thoughts of a one of your countrymen who graduated from the same university. You used "probably" because you don't really know, i.e. you don't have perfect knowledge of my mind or thought process.whiterock said:Wangchung said:What if Earth gets sucked into a giant black hole?Osodecentx said:What if you're the one who is miscalculating?whiterock said:Osodecent said:
UK and Russia were not incorrect about the character or nature of Adoph Hitler. Knew about the death camps, Knew that he held expansionist nationalist views of a grander Germany and would push as far as the envelope afforded. Knew he would renege/cheat on international agreements. The errors were all in miscalculation. Chamberlain thought ceding on the Sudentland would finally satiate Hitler, that by giving him all the German speaking territories, he'd stop. Stalin thought he was gaining half of Poland for nothing, and that Germany would turn west & get chewed up by the UK/French alliance. (pretty shrewd calculation by Stalin, who was not a madman either).
When an adversary does something you do not expect, it does not ipso facto mean your adversary is a madman. It more likely means you were a chump. That you miscalculated. And anyone who was surprised about what Putin did here is a chump. He has talking for 15 years about Nato's westward expansion being unacceptable. He acted already on his warnings in both Georgia and Crimea. And still EU/Nato pressed on.
I mean, seriously. There are so many layers of "not a madman" going on here. Arguably a better case could be made about "what the hell was Europe thinking?" about how they pressed & pressed & pressed a course of action which could hardly be better designed to threaten Russian interests. Not just Nato hegemony over the shatterzone, but Nato membership all the way to the Russian border? Lots & lots & lots of wise people on our side warned about that, but the Open Society idealists just waived it off as racism, patriarcy, etc....
No, launching Russian artillery into Ukrainian cities is not "madman" stuff. It's "Mongol" stuff. He's laying siege to Ukranian cities and applying escalating pressure to force concessions from leadership to submit & pay homage. Very old history is playing out before our eyes. What is happening now in Ukraine has happened hundreds of times before.....the Alans did it. The Huns did it. The Kazars did it. The Golden Horde did it. Prince Nevsky did it. Grigory Potemkin did it. Hitler did it. I left out a bunch of folks who also "did it." And each time it was all about securing tribute (wealth) from an indefensible territory which could then serve as a shatterzone to protect the motherland.
Thanks to (somewhat traditional) Russian military incompetence, the Ukranian war is now a war of attrition. In a war of attrition, the country with larger population/economy usually prevails by just bleeding/starving out the little guy over time with non-stop conflict the little guy cannot sustain, even if the little guy wins most of the battles. (the tactic Grant employed in the Civil War).
So, Mr. President. The Ukraine War is in the oven. What do we want to do about preventing the NEXT war (Baltics, Caucasus, Moldova, etc.....) Are we going to help the Ukranians maul Russia so bad they might even win and even if not it would take russia a decade to recover?
I would counsel that if we do not inflict a Pavlovian lesson here, we will be right back in the same situation in different geography in 2-5 years. If we allow fears of escalation to under-react, we will merely hasten horizontal escalation into new geography.
So think harder, Mr. President. What are you going to do?
Oso probably thinks Russia would nuke us for that.
But when it came to Putin's mind and thought process, you were certain when you could;dn't possibly know..
As I said in another post, I agree with your analysis because it is a good guess, but it is only a guess.
Your opinion is more informed than mine, but it is a guess nevertheless
In the intel community, a disagreement over assessment is worked out by having the minority view get a call out in text, or if significant enough in substance or vote, an inset box.
So what is your assessment? You really believe that we risk nuclear response when....at what point? How far can we push Putin before HE escalates to a level you find unacceptable (and define what that level looks like).
Good question.
If he is not crazy, I believe it is as simple as when he has no option.
Ukraine is not that. This is his choice, he can take Crimea and the Russian dominant provinces and be done. If he chooses. Even if NATO rolls into Ukraibe-west.
Until Putin has no option, I dont belive nukes are on the table short of keeping us in check. Actual use would only happen if we went into Russia proper or tried to take him out.
And that brings us to an unreported dynamic at play. Why is Putin shelling cities rather than making infantry assaults on them? There is a rational reason. He's trying to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people, to separate them from their "unreasonable" government, unreasonable meaning "unwilling to negotiate to spare the people." And of course there is a fairly large kernel of truth in that - Zelensky is not willing to cede to Russian demands because, at this moment, he has a position of relative advantage. Putin of course realizes that, which is why he's not even willing to come to the table.
But that slender UKR advantage will not last forever. Russia is a nation of 150m people; UKR is a nation of 40m people. And Russian GDP is nearly 10x that of UKR. So even though UKR appears to be holding its own, at a casual glance......the reality is that it's success in stopping the Russian invasion has left it engaged in a war of attrition that it cannot win. How realistic are the scenarios where we could be expect to see UKR take the initiative and drive the Russian Army out? Answer: not terribly.
So our goal is to make the still likely Russian success (success defined as an outcome which improves Russian position over the status quo ante) be as hard fought and painful as it could be, to make Putin and XI question their capabilities and have far greater respect for the resolve of their adversaries. That is what deterrence looks like. But the window is small and it will close rapidly if we do not act. Biden senses that, or he would not be talking about the Turkish SAMs for F-35 deal, & probably others not made public.
But Putin has already delivered a powerful deterrent lesson upon Ukraine. No matter what is the outcome, Russia will rebuild and be ready to come again if UKR starts taking actions that threaten Russian interests. Could UKR summon a similar resolve to stand again against Goliath? Wouldn't it be wiser for UKR to be a little more cautious about flirting with the West? All one has to do is look at Oso's arguments for caution and see how that dynamic plays out. UKR will NOT want to be cavalier with actions that could invite repeat what it is incurring right now,. Only a madman would act in such a way. (wink).
So Putin has lots of options. He could declare victory tomorrow, keep what's he's seized in Donbass and Crimean approaches and send the rest of his troops home, and he's in a better position than he was 6 weeks ago. Ukraine would be in no position to go on the offensive to take it back. Russia could consolidate its gains, dare UKR do do anything about it, and prepare to come again in a decade or so. That's how the Mongols played the game....and the Pechenegs, and the Khazars, and the........ Putin is just doing what the strong do to the weak, when the weak forget to pay tribute.
It's a tragedy that we can fork over money for this but we can't do **** about homeless vets.
BIDEN: "Today I am announcing the US has prepared to commit more than $1 Billion in humanitarian assistance to help get relief to millions of Ukrainians affected by the war [...] We will invest $320 Million to bolster democratic resilience and defend human rights in Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/tyT2espNxi
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 24, 2022
Have said this for a few years now.Doc Holliday said:
It's a tragedy that we can fork over money for this but we can't do **** about homeless vets.BIDEN: "Today I am announcing the US has prepared to commit more than $1 Billion in humanitarian assistance to help get relief to millions of Ukrainians affected by the war [...] We will invest $320 Million to bolster democratic resilience and defend human rights in Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/tyT2espNxi
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 24, 2022
Ever since I saw a vet come to the Sister Mary Alice Murphy Center of Hope with his cancer stricken wife.
She was in a wheel care ........they were living in their CAR .
Yet we continue to provide billions of dollars to other countries and hundreds of millions of dollars to feed and shelter illegals .
I simply don't comprehend why our priorities are so screwed up .
BREAKING: After test-firing ICBM, North Korea says it is “fully ready for a long-standing confrontation with the U.S.” - Yonhap
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 24, 2022
Cobretti said:BREAKING: After test-firing ICBM, North Korea says it is “fully ready for a long-standing confrontation with the U.S.” - Yonhap
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 24, 2022
No, cant be. Biden is respected, bringing the US back to respect. N Korea will not challenge Biden. Right?
The sides are lining up, and borders between "us" and "them" will become clearer as the world's powers align themselves into two camps again. We can now all start feeling like Marty going back to the 1950's.
EatMoreSalmon said:
The sides are lining up, and borders between "us" and "them" will become clearer as the world's powers align themselves into two camps again. We can now all start feeling like Marty going back to the 1950's.
You got it. Some President took away our ability to fight two wars. Who was that? Oh yeah, Obama/Biden. You seeing a pattern with Biden being on the wrong side of every decision????
in 6-9 months, there will be some kind of an accident that takes out some key personnel and/or equipment that sets back NK a couple of years. Maybe some info that pops up creating a bit of distrust in key parts of their leadershipRMF5630 said:Cobretti said:BREAKING: After test-firing ICBM, North Korea says it is “fully ready for a long-standing confrontation with the U.S.” - Yonhap
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 24, 2022
No, cant be. Biden is respected, bringing the US back to respect. N Korea will not challenge Biden. Right?
You should re-evaluate your meme if that's your belief. I'd start with Korea.Doc Holliday said:The US is allowed to take over countries, bomb the **** out of thousands of innocent civilians and destabilize the a region without anyone acting like its a humanitarian crisis.Canon said:
That meme could literally have "police" at the top and the 25 dead black criminals who violently resisted arrest in the chair. Then "BLM" at the bottom. That's what that meme is worth and how twisted it is.
You're cool with that?
I didn't take you for a John McCain warhawk type.
I'm supposed to believe the US isn't corrupt in its war efforts?ATL Bear said:You should re-evaluate your meme if that's your belief. I'd start with Korea.Doc Holliday said:The US is allowed to take over countries, bomb the **** out of thousands of innocent civilians and destabilize the a region without anyone acting like its a humanitarian crisis.Canon said:
That meme could literally have "police" at the top and the 25 dead black criminals who violently resisted arrest in the chair. Then "BLM" at the bottom. That's what that meme is worth and how twisted it is.
You're cool with that?
I didn't take you for a John McCain warhawk type.
IMO the United States has not been inherently 'corrupt' in its war interests since the Spanish-American War.Doc Holliday said:I'm supposed to believe the US isn't corrupt in its war efforts?ATL Bear said:You should re-evaluate your meme if that's your belief. I'd start with Korea.Doc Holliday said:The US is allowed to take over countries, bomb the **** out of thousands of innocent civilians and destabilize the a region without anyone acting like its a humanitarian crisis.Canon said:
That meme could literally have "police" at the top and the 25 dead black criminals who violently resisted arrest in the chair. Then "BLM" at the bottom. That's what that meme is worth and how twisted it is.
You're cool with that?
I didn't take you for a John McCain warhawk type.
Though Vietnam was certainly misguided.
What we have is a military industrial complex that lobbies for war because they can make billions of dollars.Canada2017 said:IMO the United States has not been inherently 'corrupt' in its war interests since the Spanish-American War.Doc Holliday said:I'm supposed to believe the US isn't corrupt in its war efforts?ATL Bear said:You should re-evaluate your meme if that's your belief. I'd start with Korea.Doc Holliday said:The US is allowed to take over countries, bomb the **** out of thousands of innocent civilians and destabilize the a region without anyone acting like its a humanitarian crisis.Canon said:
That meme could literally have "police" at the top and the 25 dead black criminals who violently resisted arrest in the chair. Then "BLM" at the bottom. That's what that meme is worth and how twisted it is.
You're cool with that?
I didn't take you for a John McCain warhawk type.
Though Vietnam was certainly misguided.
The Afghanistan war was driven by money. The idea of nation building is a lie. These aren't real efforts, that's why Afghanistan fell in half a day after we put forth $7 trillion to build it up.
In the process of war we've killed thousands of innocent people and children through mistakes and incompetence.