Dallas Democrat Colin Allred ponders Senate bid against Ted Cruz https://t.co/Jt3mPj8j7n pic.twitter.com/dTItWnLECO
— Clay Lewis Jenkins (@JudgeClayJ) February 21, 2023
Dallas Democrat Colin Allred ponders Senate bid against Ted Cruz
The three-term congressman is trying to determine if a Senate run in a consistently red state makes sense.
In 2018, Colin Allred beat Republican Pete Sessions to flip a Dallas congressional district from red to blue.
Now the former NFL player and Hillcrest High School standout is considering challenging incumbent Ted Cruz for Senate in 2024, according to 11 Democrats and activists contacted by The Dallas Morning News. The move would put him in line to make history, or become the next candidate in a long string of Democratic Party disappointments.
Allred has been talking to strategists, donors and supporters across the state to determine if running against Cruz makes sense. At the same time, his media office has been in overdrive, distributing updates about his congressional work and stressing his bipartisan approach to problem-solving.
Allred would not comment for this story.
A Democrat hasn't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. In 2018, former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke lost to Cruz by only 2.6 percentage points. Like O'Rourke at the time, Allred would bring a fresh face and bipartisan credentials.
"He [Allred] built a coalition of young people, of old people, people of different races and different backgrounds, straight people, gay people," said Dallas businessman and LGBTQ activist Morgan Cox. "He launched this door-knocking and block-walking campaign that just energized the district. ... If a person is able to scale that to a Texas-size campaign, they're going to be able to give Ted Cruz a run for the money."
Cox said he has spoken to Allred about a Senate bid and encouraged him to challenge Cruz.
"He's proven to be a Democrat that works well in business development and attraction," he said. "That's all paramount to Texas's success and our future growth."
Morgan added: "Colin will run a hell of a campaign."
Local Republicans say it would be a mistake for Allred to challenge Cruz and point out that he has voted for President Joe Biden's agenda 100% of the time.
"Of the congressional Democrats, Colin Allred would be the best positioned to run statewide," said Chris Homan, the GOP strategist who directed Sessions' losing campaign against Allred. "Here's why Colin would still lose. He has a voting record that is nearly identical to the awful, most left-wing politicians from the east and west coast. He will have to eat all of those bad votes. Texans will not accept that."
Other potential Democratic contenders include former San Antonio Mayor and former U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro and former state Rep. and Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner.
Allred worked under Castro at the Housing Department.
Already campaigning is businessman and former Midland City Council member John Love.
On the GOP side, Cruz told The Dallas Morning News last week that he would focus on running for reelection instead of another campaign for president.
A spokesperson for Cruz did not comment on any potential Democratic Party challengers.
Rising star
Allred, 39, stormed onto the North Texas political scene by upsetting the venerable Sessions to win a seat Republicans had controlled since it was drawn nearly two decades ago.
The former Tennessee Titans linebacker, Baylor football star and civil rights lawyer won a crowded Democratic primary before ousting Sessions. In 2020, he beat Republican Genevieve Collins to win reelection. He faced light competition last year after District 32 was revamped to put it under the control of Democratic Party voters.
Allred's accomplishments include leading the effort to bring the VA Medical Center to Garland. His first effort in Congress was to protect insurance coverage for people with pre-existing conditions outlined in the Affordable Care Act, a promise he made on the campaign trail.
Building on the veterans medical facility in Garland, he pushed a bipartisan bill that was signed into law to authorize construction of the Dallas VA Medical Center Spinal Cord Injury Center as well as a new veterans medical center in El Paso.
Last week his office announced that Prairie View A&M University will receive a $4 million grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation to create a national University Transportation Center.
According to Roll Call, Allred in 2021 requested $241 million in earmarks, more than any other member in Congress. Much of that was for projects at DFW International Airport. The projects are in partnership with Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Irving.
Allred has been endorsed for Congress by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a rarity for a Democrat. He's also backed by the Texas AFL-CIO.
"The business community is probably more supportive of Colin Allred than Ted Cruz at this point," said Ron Kirk, the former Dallas mayor and former U.S. trade representative under President Barack Obama.
Kirk, who in 2002 ran an unsuccessful campaign for Senate against Republican John Cornyn, said Allred would be a good candidate against Cruz.
"I'm an unashamed, full-throttle supporter of Colin Allred, and I would certainly support him if he ran for Senate," he said.
Uphill fight
Some party operatives wanted Allred to run for statewide office last year, when Democrats took another shellacking from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and his statewide running mates.
The question for Allred in 2024: Can a Democrat win a statewide race in Texas?
"It's still incredibly difficult for a Democrat to win," said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. "Last year, even the weakest member of the Republican herd, Ken Paxton, won his race."
Paxton, the attorney general, beat former ACLU lawyer Rochelle Garza despite being under indictment on state securities fraud charges and under FBI investigation in connection with public corruption allegations.
Jones added that Allred would have to compete for campaign dollars also sought by Senate and House candidates in races deemed more winnable than those in Texas. He said, however, that Allred was one of the best hopes for Democrats to break through.
"The only way to win statewide is for people like Colin Allred to start running," he said.
The close Cruz-O'Rourke contest in 2018 could give Democrats hope, though Cruz won on the strength of conservative voters who are expected to stick with him for his reelection effort.
Former Dallas County Republican Party Chairman Jonathan Neerman said Cruz would beat Allred. He said that Allred is largely unknown to most Texans and that Democrats aren't in a position to boost his candidacy.
More Republicans vote in Texas statewide elections than Democrats, and the GOP is said by many consultants to have an advantage of over a million votes.
"If Colin were to call me and ask for my advice, I would say, 'You're in a safe seat. Build up seniority, and if the Democrats take back control, try to become a chairman,'" Neerman said. "I don't think he has the ability to beat Ted Cruz on a statewide basis."
Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, who was briefly recruited by some Democrats to run in 2022 against incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, said 2024 could be a good year for Democrats.
He praised Allred's leadership during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and his constituent work in the district, including helping to bring the VA Medical Center to Garland.
"He'd be a great candidate and a very formidable candidate," he said. "He's really delivered for Dallas. If it's good with the family, get in there and go for it. Give it all you've got."
Democrat Lisa Turner, state director of the Lone Star Project, a research group, said Allred would be a strong candidate against Cruz and would be a better communicator.
"I'm salivating over the possibility of Colin Allred debating Ted Cruz," she said.
Cox, the Dallas businessman and LGBTQ activist, conceded Allred can't win alone.
"You've got to have a better investment in voter infrastructure," he said of Democrats. "I think we continue to be a nonvoting state. If we're able to invest in an effort that really gets voters off the sidelines and gets them engaged, along with an amazing candidate that does the hard work and has the right message, a Democrat can win."