It's early yet, but RealClearPolitics has a handful of Trump v Harris polls, with a range of useful information.

There are nine polls listed in the current range which show anything from Harris leading by two points (ABC News/Wash Post) to Trump leading by six (Emerson).

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

But the fun begins in the crosstabs.

Morning Consult, NBC News, and FOX News did not offer access to the crosstab data, but the others did.

Most interesting to me was that Forbes/HarrisX shows Trump leading Harris 52-48 in their headline, but when you drill down to the crosstabs it's really 49 to 42 Trump.

But without going too far into the weeds, the breakdown by Independent Voter Support tells the tale:

CBS News: 51-48 Trump topline, 54-43 Trump among Independents
Forbes/HarrisX: 52-48 Trump topline, 47-38 Trump among Independents
Reuters/Ipsos: 44-44 topline, 38-35 Trump among Independents
NPR/PBS/Marist: 49-50 Harris topline, 51-46 Trump among Independents
ABC News/Wash Post: 47-49 Harris topline, 45-45 among Independents
Emerson: 49-43 Trump topline, 48-36 Trump among Independents


There is no poll out yet showing Harris leading with Independents.

Oldbear83 said:

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It's early yet, but RealClearPolitics has a handful of Trump v Harris polls, with a range of useful information.

There are nine polls listed in the current range which show anything from Harris leading by two points (ABC News/Wash Post) to Trump leading by six (Emerson).

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

But the fun begins in the crosstabs.

Morning Consult, NBC News, and FOX News did not offer access to the crosstab data, but the others did.

Most interesting to me was that Forbes/HarrisX shows Trump leading Harris 52-48 in their headline, but when you drill down to the crosstabs it's really 49 to 42 Trump.

But without going too far into the weeds, the breakdown by Independent Voter Support tells the tale:

CBS News: 51-48 Trump topline, 54-43 Trump among Independents
Forbes/HarrisX: 52-48 Trump topline, 47-38 Trump among Independents
Reuters/Ipsos: 44-44 topline, 38-35 Trump among Independents
NPR/PBS/Marist: 49-50 Harris topline, 51-46 Trump among Independents
ABC News/Wash Post: 47-49 Harris topline, 45-45 among Independents
Emerson: 49-43 Trump topline, 48-36 Trump among Independents


There is no poll out yet showing Harris leading with Independents.

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What about the swing states? That is really all that matters.

Those polls mean nothing....the closer the election the more AD revenue they earn.....nothing says democratic than usurping your voters and by putting in your own candidate. I honestly don't believe Harris will be the last man standing come the DNC...

midgett said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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It's early yet, but RealClearPolitics has a handful of Trump v Harris polls, with a range of useful information.

There are nine polls listed in the current range which show anything from Harris leading by two points (ABC News/Wash Post) to Trump leading by six (Emerson).

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

But the fun begins in the crosstabs.

Morning Consult, NBC News, and FOX News did not offer access to the crosstab data, but the others did.

Most interesting to me was that Forbes/HarrisX shows Trump leading Harris 52-48 in their headline, but when you drill down to the crosstabs it's really 49 to 42 Trump.

But without going too far into the weeds, the breakdown by Independent Voter Support tells the tale:

CBS News: 51-48 Trump topline, 54-43 Trump among Independents
Forbes/HarrisX: 52-48 Trump topline, 47-38 Trump among Independents
Reuters/Ipsos: 44-44 topline, 38-35 Trump among Independents
NPR/PBS/Marist: 49-50 Harris topline, 51-46 Trump among Independents
ABC News/Wash Post: 47-49 Harris topline, 45-45 among Independents
Emerson: 49-43 Trump topline, 48-36 Trump among Independents


There is no poll out yet showing Harris leading with Independents.

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What about the swing states? That is really all that matters.

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None out yet for the states showing Trump v Harris

midgett said:

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What about the swing states? That is really all that matters.

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...and really a handful of counties. If they are able to manufacture enough ballots in Fulton/Maricopa/Milwaukee/etc the rest doesn't matter.

Realitybites said:

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midgett said:

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What about the swing states? That is really all that matters.

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...and really a handful of counties. If they are able to manufacture enough ballots in Fulton/Maricopa/Milwaukee/etc the rest doesn't matter.

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Well, they do have to reprint a couple of hundred thousand ballots now.

Seems odd the golden boy Newsom who has ruined California isn't being pushed to further try and ruin the entire
Country.

Oldbear83 said:

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It's early yet, but RealClearPolitics has a handful of Trump v Harris polls, with a range of useful information.

There are nine polls listed in the current range which show anything from Harris leading by two points (ABC News/Wash Post) to Trump leading by six (Emerson).

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

But the fun begins in the crosstabs.

Morning Consult, NBC News, and FOX News did not offer access to the crosstab data, but the others did.

Most interesting to me was that Forbes/HarrisX shows Trump leading Harris 52-48 in their headline, but when you drill down to the crosstabs it's really 49 to 42 Trump.

But without going too far into the weeds, the breakdown by Independent Voter Support tells the tale:

CBS News: 51-48 Trump topline, 54-43 Trump among Independents
Forbes/HarrisX: 52-48 Trump topline, 47-38 Trump among Independents
Reuters/Ipsos: 44-44 topline, 38-35 Trump among Independents
NPR/PBS/Marist: 49-50 Harris topline, 51-46 Trump among Independents
ABC News/Wash Post: 47-49 Harris topline, 45-45 among Independents
Emerson: 49-43 Trump topline, 48-36 Trump among Independents


There is no poll out yet showing Harris leading with Independents.

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Trump has been winning independents for months now, by margins which question the parameters of the rest of the polling. With GOP party ID surging, GOP enthusiasm surging, Trump winning independents, winning young people, winning Hispanics, robbing 20pts or so from Dem margins with blacks, winning men by historic margins, within a few points of parity with women (i.e. about normal), Trump having a clear favorability edge over Biden, etc.....none of the polls showing a 3-4pt Trump lead make sense.

Amid all that, undecideds in most polls have been in the low-to-mid teens. Historically high. Again, not surprising given the unpopularity of the two men. Gotta think Kamala, with the sympathy vote and all the positive free press she will be getting, will suck over a few points of the undecideds almost immediately. Not enough to close the gap. And she might not retain them. Undecideds tend to be centrists and centrists tend to be fickle. Trump hasn't spend much money. Yet.

Harris is in a difficult situation where she needs more spotlight, and needs to be thrust to the fore of voter's minds. They cannot allow another weak turnout. But the more time she spends in the spotlight, the more it becomes obvious she is not very intelligent. I think every minute she takes questions, or debates Trump, she motivates hard-core Democrats, and loses Independents.

It is a tricky thing to navigate, and she really had little reason to be a candidate the first time around. It will be interesting. A lot if it is up to Trump. He needs to stick to factual insults, and he might actually win. But give him free reign of his Twitter account, and some insult involving her gener or race will come out and alienate independents.

America is probably ready for a female President, and Harris may ultimately be a little more palatable than Clinton.

Would accept Hillary Clinton over Harris any time.

Hillary is smarter than Harris, far more experienced and doesn't hate Anglos.

New poll out from Forbes/HarrisX, and it's not pretty:

https://www.harrisx.com/content/hop-july-19-21-2024

Run July 19-21, it shows Harris six points behind Trump in terms of personal favorability and nine points behind in head-to-head poling (per crosstabs). Harris picks up some support when leaners are added, but only to within six points.

Oldbear83 said:

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New poll out from Forbes/HarrisX, and it's not pretty:

https://www.harrisx.com/content/hop-july-19-21-2024

Run July 19-21, it shows Harris six points behind Trump in terms of personal favorability and nine points behind in head-to-head poling (per crosstabs). Harris picks up some support when leaners are added, but only to within six points.

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Harvard/Harris has consistently shown Trump running stronger than the average of polls. It's a reputable firm. Lead pollster is Mark Penn. Penn and Doug Schoen were the primary pollsters for the Clinton/Gore campaigns, so H/H is quite reputable and definitely not to be discarded as an outlier.

By contrast, Emerson & Morning Consult have consistently shown a tighter race.

Pollsters and particularly the polls contracted by the news organizations typically do not want to be seen as calling the race before it is done. Polls can affect public opinion and have big impacts on fundraising, which will invite the ire of the political parties and the candidates. To the extent pollsters have a bias, it's less about partisan leans of the firm than about trying, early on at leas, to make the race appear more competitive than it might really be. Bi-annual campaigns are "peak season" for the entire campaign clerisy (strategists, managers, pollsters, direct mail firms, social media specialists, etc....) and are big cash cows for Tv/Radio firms - ad rates soar in political years, so these campaigns are paying peak rate for ad spots. Competitive races suck more money into the maelstrom.

This race could be competitive, or it could be a Trump blowout. If it's the latter, the polls will yawn that way later rather than sooner. What the Dems have just done with their candidate is a clear indicator they are thinking it's already starting to yawn in the wrong direction (i.e. Mark Penn is probably out ahead of his contemporaries on which way the race is headed = GOP blowout.

Was looking up the numbers for state polling. Some interesting tidbits, at least to me.

In short, RCP, 270 to Win, and FiveThirtyEight have consensus on forty-four states, D.C. and two of the three congressional districts which get an Electoral Vote. There are fourteen states where Trump has more than 50% support, on average, while the Democrats have four states plus D.C., notably showing only Biden's numbers yet. The Democrats have another nine states where they have under 50% support but a consensus lead, for a total of thirteen states, D.C. and a congressional district. Trump has under 50% support but a consensus lead in another seventeen states, for a total of thirty-one states and one congressional district.

There are fourteen states which have Trump v Harris numbers so far. Trump has a consensus lead in nine of them, Harris has a consensus lead in two, and three others have split opinions (Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, all have Trump leading in two sites and Harris leading in one site)

One congressional district in Nebraska shows a tie, and the following six states disagree between the three sites about who is leading:

Minnesota (2-1 D)
New Hampshire (2-1 R)
New Jersey (2-1 R)
Pennsylvania (2-1 R)
Virginia (2-1 R)
Wisconsin (2-1 R).

KaiBear said:

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If Harris magically 'wins' the 2024 general election it will be meaningless to vote ever again .

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Harris is further left than Sanders. If that ticket garners enough ballots to be installed in the white house in January, we both need to take a hard look at getting out of Dodge.

Realitybites said:

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KaiBear said:

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If Harris magically 'wins' the 2024 general election it will be meaningless to vote ever again .

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Harris is further left than Sanders. If that ticket garners enough ballots to be installed in the white house in January, we both need to take a hard look at getting out of Dodge.

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One son has already left the country. In the process of buying a house.