Redbrickbear said:
Iran has a young population and is dealing with high youth unemployment and lots of government corruption…the regime is unstable
[Demographically, the Islamic Republic is experiencing a generational shift that will profoundly influence both its internal politics and its place in the world. Although it ranks among the older countries of the Middle East, Iran's population structure is unique and deeply significant in political terms. During the 1980s and 1990s, the country witnessed a pronounced "youth bulge" as a result of high fertility rates that prevailed during the Pahlavi era. The impact of this demographic surge has proven long-lasting; as of 2010, over 60 percent of Iran's population was estimated to be under age 30. Today, almost 40 percent of Iran's roughly 86 million citizens are 24 years old or younger.
These figures are deeply significant, because they serve as the basis for a widening rift between the Iranian regime and the country's captive population. Put simply, a majority of Iranians either were not yet alive or were not old enough to be politically aware when Khomeini's Islamic Revolution occurred 45 years ago. As a result, Iran's younger generations lack any formative experience with the Revolution and its underlying tenets or the ideological bonds that might tether them firmly to the current regime in Tehran. Iran's population, in other words, cannot be counted on to stay committed to the Revolution in the absence of favorable internal conditions. And on that score, the news is decidedly not good for the country's ruling clerical regime. ]
https://www.afpc.org/publications/articles/rethinking-irans-future
So based on this analysis, what you're seeing in Iran is the sort of generational fourth turning, the sort of thing that is putting DSA politicans in power here in blue states, seeing historic Christian confessions supplant evangelicalism and pentecostalism, and seeing America First paleoconservatism replace neoconservatism?
Interesting. I suppose that is possible.
More than 50,000 Mosques In Iran Have Closed"The claim that 50,000 of Iran's 75,000 mosques have closed due to lack of attendance taps into a broader, well-documented trend: a noticeable decline in religious observance and
mosque attendance across Iran, especially among younger generations. Iranian officials and clerics themselves have acknowledged this shift in recent years. In 2023, prominent religious figures publicly expressed concern over dwindling
mosque participation, with some citing that only a fraction of mosques see regular activity, particularly during daily prayers. Factors contributing to this include growing secularism, disillusionment with the clerical establishment, and the younger population's increasing exposure"
