Duh, anything for power

I still can't get myself to believe Texas will elect a dem senator, but based on polling I'll predict:
Talrico +2
Abbot+4
French+.05

Bestweekeverr said:

---

I still can't get myself to believe Texas will elect a dem senator, but based on polling I'll predict:
Talrico +2
Abbot+4
French+.05

---

It will be interesting to see how many Talarico voters otherwise vote all GOP. I am guessing there are more straight-ticket GOP voters who leave the Senate choice blank or vote libertarian in that spot.

Feels like Talarico/Paxton is a coin flip. I would not be shocked if Talarico pulls it out.

But I just cannot see Hinajosa winning at all.

Atlas Intel just dropped a Texas poll…

Senate:
🔵 James Talarico - 52.2% (+6)
🔴 Ken Paxton - 46.2%

Governor:
🔵 Gina Hinojosa - 50.1% (+1.6)
🔴 Greg Abbott - 48.5%

Most accurate pollster in 2020 and 2024. pic.twitter.com/7M1vC0oDyl

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) November 2, 2026

Frank Galvin said:

---

Bestweekeverr said:

---

I still can't get myself to believe Texas will elect a dem senator, but based on polling I'll predict:
Talrico +2
Abbot+4
French+.05

---

It will be interesting to see how many Talarico voters otherwise vote all GOP. I am guessing there are more straight-ticket GOP voters who leave the Senate choice blank or vote libertarian in that spot.

---

Agreed, I think Abbot performs much better being an incumbent, and Paxton just having a lot of baggage. Having an R next to your name in Texas is all it takes most of the time though.

I think French could have just skated through the election easily and coasted on the R by his name if not for the UT tweet. That put him on the radar for a lot of people that would have just voted Republican on a low visibility race. We'll see if it's enough to cost him the election.

Just because, I looked up the early voting results and 2018 and 2022 history for the 254 counties in Texas, and it was interesting to see how heavily the Democrats depend on a few counties; most of the counties are red and more than half would be deep red. Sixty counties had less than a thousand early voters, which was consistent with their 2018 and 2022 numbers. Another 114 counties had between a thousand and ten thousand early voters this year, again consistent with their last two midterm results. Only twenty-eight counties had more than 50 thousand early voters this election, meaning that the Paxton/Talarico contest may well come down to who shows up on Election day, making weather and late decisions critical to the outcome.

.

POLL SHOCK: Democrats lead Republicans in all seven battleground Senate races, including deep-red Texas and Kansas, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released just days before the midterms.

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Kansas hasn't since… pic.twitter.com/3sza4SsdKk

— Fox News Politics (@foxnewspolitics) November 2, 2026

POLL SHOCK: Democrats lead Republicans in all seven battleground Senate races, including deep-red Texas and Kansas, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released just days before the midterms.

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Kansas hasn't since 1932. Yet Democratic candidates now lead in both states James Talarico over Ken Paxton 50-43 in Texas, Adam Hamilton over Roger Marshall 49-44 in Kansas. Across all seven states surveyed, just 38% of likely voters approve of Trump's job performance, despite Trump carrying five of those states by double digits in 2024.

Democrats also hold a nine-point advantage on cost of living and lead among independents in every state polled. Still, several races fall within the margin of error, and voters who decided in the last month favor Republicans by nine points leaving the final outcome far from settled.

Full story here foxnews.com/politics/poll-…

Democrats definitely take the house, Senate is a toss-up.

Republicans have a much-deserved bad-day after failing to use their majority to do anything productive in Trumps first 2 years.

Trump ultimately becomes a lame duck (as if it makes a difference) and the US turns to resume their war against Iran.

Texas:
-Talafreako beats Paxton (Going off of Kalshi odds)
-Abbot survives

FL:
-Byron survives a close one

If this is true, then it's really quite difficult to rationalize the published Dem lead in the polls

Wait, a plus 9 margin for late deciders to back the party that is supposed to get smoked? You mean they aren’t going with the tide of the inevitable winner? https://t.co/pd2RkfGh1y

— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 2, 2026

NBC News says Republicans outnumbered Democrats in Early Voting in Texas

Texas Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results

BluesBear said:

---

I think we all can agree that regardless of who wins in what state - - Nothing will get accomplished in Washington DC or in Austin Texas.

---

Wait and see.

Unfortunately, I do agree that career politicians are the most likely winner of these midterms.

Do they define their version "party registration"?

I've been following the numbers on this:

https://theoelections.com/early-vote

He has more GOP then Dem primary voters so far as well, but with no primary participation being the largest single group of voters. He also lists about 28k more total votes than NBC does.

HuMcK said:

---

Do they define their version "party registration"?

I've been following the numbers on this:

https://theoelections.com/early-vote

He has more GOP then Dem primary voters so far as well, but with no primary participation being the largest single group of voters. He also lists about 28k more total votes than NBC does.

---

Just citing what I found.

If you look at the link, you can also see that women have outvoted men 55% to 45% so far, but older voters far outnumber the young voters.

Trump seems resigned to losing the midterms:

"For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot." pic.twitter.com/ZKLgKHi40n

— FactPost (@factpostnews) November 2, 2026

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

I'll be hosting a Watch Party at the Arby's .....

- el UF

... in my mind.

Free Sliders and Au Jus!!!

Go Bears!

Beat the Crones!!

---

do we get a big bowl or Arby's and Horseshee Sauce to go with a back of Doritos ?

---

no au jus for you........

- the arbys nazi



D!

Go Bears!!

I think this is a tough election to predict ...

- the president's party almost always takes a beating
- the Democrats have nominated some really radical candidates
- the Republicans have nominated some bad candidates
- there is a clear demoralization campaign by the left-wing media ... the Democrats launched a fake polling organization to skew results ...

william said:

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

I'll be hosting a Watch Party at the Arby's .....

- el UF

... in my mind.

Free Sliders and Au Jus!!!

Go Bears!

Beat the Crones!!

---

do we get a big bowl or Arby's and Horseshee Sauce to go with a back of Doritos ?

---

no au jus for you........

- the au jus nazi



D!

Go Bears!!

---

I will take Vegan Vegetable as an homage to Talarico for going away Mr. SN

HuMcK said:

---

Do they define their version "party registration"?

I've been following the numbers on this:

https://theoelections.com/early-vote

He has more GOP than Dem primary voters so far as well, but with no primary participation being the largest single group of voters. He also lists about 28k more total votes than NBC does.

---

Keep in mind: Texas does not have official "party registration" categories like other states do, just records in which primary you vote in. So when you see stats in Tx citing Dem or Rep, it's a distinctly different dataset than in states which require party registration. It just means you have voted in the last 1-2-3-4 (Dem or GOP) primaries. Sure, you can make strong inferences on that data. But the definitional difference induces many people to make a really big error - assuming all TX "independents" are registered independent swing voters in the classic sense like other states have. Not true at all. A LOT of those Tx voters being talked about in the Indy category are, in fact partisans who do not vote in primaries. And Tx GOP has a strong advantage in that category, too.

whiterock said:

---

If this is true, then it's really quite difficult to rationalize the published Dem lead in the polls

Wait, a plus 9 margin for late deciders to back the party that is supposed to get smoked? You mean they aren’t going with the tide of the inevitable winner? https://t.co/pd2RkfGh1y

— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 2, 2026

---

And "if" it isn't true?

But, you know, ALL IS WELL!!!!!!!

The_barBEARian said:

---

Pat Buchanan turns 88 today.

Have you said happy birthday yet, anon? pic.twitter.com/d08OxcV90s

— Bradley Devlin (@bradleydevlin) November 2, 2026

---

patty patty buch buch..........



- el UF

jack germond......

WRONG!

boognish_bear said:

---

This will be the biggest national wipeout for Republicans since 2006, when voters brutally punished the GOP for an ill-advised and poorly planned war in the Middle East.

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) November 4, 2026

---

Gonna be worse than 2006 for the TRUMP GOP.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now on track to open below 7,500 for the first time since July 31st as markets price-in a Democrat victory in both the House and Senate.

Nasdaq 100 futures are now down more than -2% tonight. pic.twitter.com/mBbq77a2mG

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 4, 2026

it's come to this..

Larry Kudlow is correct. We were too successful the first year of the Trump administration.

— Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 4, 2026

Joe Biden created the economic disaster and Democrats bamboozled Americans into thinking it’s Donald Trump’s crisis. pic.twitter.com/dQy6ADxNKm

— Matt Schlapp (@mschlapp) November 4, 2026

GOP - "The media has been lying to the American people"

Also GOP -

And thus, we are back to where we were before 2016.

The Republican Party was filled with a bunch of low-energy establishment clowns like Cheney, Romney, and McCain. It took us years to expel those people from the party, but now we've somehow regressed even further than where we started. And it's all been headlined by Trump's atrocity of a second term.