This will be an unpopular analysis and seem heartless. It's intended to be purely cold and heartless, so very well.
It occurs to me that the Wuhan flu, if left to burn through the population, would not negatively impact school or working age adults in any long term significant manner. It will, instead, likely cull large portions of the population that are much older, infirm, using significant portions of medical bandwidth already and drawing on currently overtaxed social welfare systems like social security. Therefor, the losses we are all discussing are very unlikely to affect the productive population of the country and would likely reduce long term liabilities and stressors placed on the economy by the sickest among the elderly population.
Some data to consider:
The only stable populations (closed system) we have studied are the cruise ships. So far, the data on at least one cruise ship shows that, inside a cruise ship population (where the bulk of the cases were in over 50 year old individuals), the asymptomatic population was over 50%. (50.5%) That means that even in older populations, half of the populace won't suffer any negative issues.
As of 2019:
- Circa 64 million Americans will receive over one trillion dollars in Social Security benefits in 2020.
- Circa 50 million of those were over 65.
- A loss rate of 15% in that 50 million would result in a decrease in SS benefits per year of circa $120 billion
- In 2018, Medicare benefit payments totaled $731 billion
- Circa 84.5% of medicare beneficiaries are 65 or older
- A reduction of 15% in the 84.5% of that $731 billion, would see an annual decrease in benefits paid of circa $93 billion.
So, the estimate of losing 15% of the over 65 population, in government expenditures alone (ignoring other economic costs) would be approximately $213 billion per year.
This is not advocating any course of action. But it is an interesting thought exercise to see what the long term impacts to this will be from both the negative and the positive sides.
It occurs to me that the Wuhan flu, if left to burn through the population, would not negatively impact school or working age adults in any long term significant manner. It will, instead, likely cull large portions of the population that are much older, infirm, using significant portions of medical bandwidth already and drawing on currently overtaxed social welfare systems like social security. Therefor, the losses we are all discussing are very unlikely to affect the productive population of the country and would likely reduce long term liabilities and stressors placed on the economy by the sickest among the elderly population.
Some data to consider:
The only stable populations (closed system) we have studied are the cruise ships. So far, the data on at least one cruise ship shows that, inside a cruise ship population (where the bulk of the cases were in over 50 year old individuals), the asymptomatic population was over 50%. (50.5%) That means that even in older populations, half of the populace won't suffer any negative issues.
As of 2019:
- Circa 64 million Americans will receive over one trillion dollars in Social Security benefits in 2020.
- Circa 50 million of those were over 65.
- A loss rate of 15% in that 50 million would result in a decrease in SS benefits per year of circa $120 billion
- In 2018, Medicare benefit payments totaled $731 billion
- Circa 84.5% of medicare beneficiaries are 65 or older
- A reduction of 15% in the 84.5% of that $731 billion, would see an annual decrease in benefits paid of circa $93 billion.
So, the estimate of losing 15% of the over 65 population, in government expenditures alone (ignoring other economic costs) would be approximately $213 billion per year.
This is not advocating any course of action. But it is an interesting thought exercise to see what the long term impacts to this will be from both the negative and the positive sides.