ColoSpringsBear said:
Jack and DP said:
blackie said:
Forest Bueller said:
You She would be a great choice. Not sure there is any chance of it happening.
She should get a vote. Just like I said Merrick Garland should have gotten a vote.
He wouldn't have gotten past Senate. I don't think she does either.
I don't either. I don't think McConnell will have the votes for this candidate or any other. It would be a tough vote to cast for Reps that are in competitive states. It might be even tougher if the vote occurs after the election. Dems and Independents that are opposed to Trump will be motivated to not let the Reps sneak in another conservative judge and will try to keep the Reps from having the votes after the election to confirm.
If the confirmation was to occur before the election and the Reps in competitive states vote a judge in, I can see people wanting payback.
Either way it is a huge gamble for the Reps to force something this close to election time. There seems to be no safe play if they are going to try to get a judge in before the new Senate is seated.
The way I see it you may be weighing the options of getting the conservative judge in and making re-election more difficult for both Trump and the Senate or skipping the confirmation until 2021 in the hopes that Trump is still in office and the Senate is still in Rep hands. What is the priority? I think the chances of both happening are slim.
This isn't sneaking a justice in. The President, who isn't a lame duck, and the Senate are the same party. Time to be dominant and not hide in the corner.
Agreed. It will be a centerpiece of the fall elections either way. Everyone will take this issue into consideration at some level - but not because they will be swayed by new arguments, but simply because they will be energized by the appointment.
Honestly, evangelicals and Christians generally are more likely to show up for the President and GOP simply because this is a Supreme Court battle and this always is a benefit to conservatives. It never fails to be an issue that is better for our side. This won't change if the appointment is pending or if it has been completed.
Progressives won't be more incentivized to vote if the appointment is made and approved by the Senate prior to the election. Instead they will be somewhat deflated by the move. Alternatively, if it is left to be accomplished post-election, they probably will have somewhat better turnout.
Either way, the President and the Senate majority have nothing to gain by waiting.
And stupid Colorado will still vote Blue...
Exactly correct.
However, I do believe that if the seat is left open until after the election, there will be a large number of independants and traditional democrats who may have been preparing to vote for Trump, that will instead vote for Biden.
There are a great many people who have been planning to vote for Trump, purely for economic reasons. Many of these folks liked RBG and they are liberal in their social beliefs. When it comes time to pay the bills, they have been leaning towards Trump because he did build the strongest economy in history before the pandemic, and he also came through on his promises to bring back American jobs before the pandemic. So Trump was winning their votes over Biden, due to economic reasons. If the open SCOTUS seat is to remain open until after the election, some of them will be swayed to vote for Harris... i mean Biden.... because they will want another RBG over another Kavanaugh type justice.
So it would make sense to fill the seat BEFORE the election, so that these voters will return to their focus on the economy. If the seat is filled, then the dems attempt to make the SCOTUS a top issue will die, along with their hopes of winning the election.
This scenario is most prevalent in the mid-west swing states of Wisconsin, Michighan, Ohio, Minnesota as well as states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina. It also matters in Florida to a much smaller number of voters, but since that state is usually a razor thin race, every tiny bit can make all the difference.
In short, there is absolutely no advantage to waiting until after the election, and every reason to get it done as quickly as possible. So nominate a candidate with no possibilities of scandal, so that you can reasonably speed up the vetting & confirmation process. Best case scenario is to get her sworn in by mid October.
ShooterTX
