S11: SMU's Defense & Game Prediction

The SMU defense struggled last season against a schedule that saw them face a lot of very good offenses.  Baylor, TCU, Tulsa, Houston, Temple, ECU, And even FCS James Madison all had good offenses that would make their mark on most teams.  Take that schedule and the talent depleted unit that Van Malone was handed and struggles are predictable.  You can argue that the SMU team we faced in 2014 had more talent than last year given the graduation of standouts like Stephon Sanders, Kevin Pope, Cam Nwosu, Darrian Wright, and Beau Barnes.  In year two I think the athletic upgrades that Morris brought in will begin to finally make an impact.

In 2015 SMU allowed 38.3 yards per drive against a set of offenses that many power conference teams may not do well against statistically.  Baylor, TCU and Navy were the worst outings.

Van Malone is the Defensive Coordinator and has patterned his defense largely off his most recent job before SMU where he worked with Oklahoma State.  

They run a 4-3 scheme with a Nickel linebacker replacing the SAM/Strongside linebacker which SMU calls the STAR.

Much like OSU they like to base out of zone looks and pick their spots to throw in twists like blitzing corners or playing man.  It's a one-gap defense which allows their line to attack the play instead of reading and reacting.

Cover Two is a classic zone defense they use.  Two deep safeties  with corners defending the flats.  SMU runs it with matchup rules where it can mimic man to man depending on who threatens them vertically.



One coverage they run that was a staple of Oklahoma State that Malone likes to throw in is Tampa 2.  This twist on Cover Two drops a linebacker deep in the middle of the field to shore up Cover Two's natural weakness in the deep middle.  This allows the Safeties to play more aggressively on the deep outside zones which in turn allows the corners to attack the flats more freely.   In this clip the safety picks off a corner route.



When SMU wants to get a safety involved against the run Malone will dial up one of their single deep safety looks.  In this example they play a variation on three deep zone, also known as Cover Three.



Like everyone in college football the Mustangs will incorporate Quarters, also known as Cover Four.  SMU typically plays it with a cushion.

PERSONNEL

At nose tackle the Mustangs list #98 Deon Green (6-4, 290, SR) as the starter but also return last year's starter #93 Mason Gentry (6-6, 294, JR) who bulked up over 50 pounds since he arrived at SMU as a lanky defensive end.  Former touted recruit #92 Zelt Minor (6-2, 285, SR) is their defensive tackle starter and is backed up by a redshirt in #94 Chris Biggurs (6-3, 277, FR) while Iowa State transfer #97 Terry Ayeni (6-2, 266, SR) may also see time.

The star of the defensive line is #99 Justin Lawler (6-4, 262, JR).  He is a tall former High School wide receiver who has bulked up but kept his quickness.  He racked up 3.5 sacks against UNT and will be a very productive player for SMU in the next couple of years.   At their other defensive end spot their starter is converted linebacker #23 Nick Horton (6-2, 247, SR) who reminds me of former Baylor player Chris McAllister who made a similar transition before starting for the 2013 Big 12 champs.  They'll drop Horton into coverage a fair amount and he's typically a stand up end.  He's also a team leader who was awarded Jerry LeVias's number 23 at SMU.

Their weakside linebacker is #44 Jackson Mitchell (6-1, 234, SR) who was a productive player in a reserve role the last two seasons.  Their middle linebacker is #48 Anthony Rhone (6-1, 230, JR) who was a backup last year.   Both are reasonably quick but smaller than the prototype for the position.  Their hybrid linebacker is #32 RC Cox (6-1, 221, JR) but #11 Kyran Mitchell (6-1, 210, SO) has also seen time at the STAR position.  Unlike nickel players at TCU, KSU, or WV they usually don't give them solo coverage assignments.  These guys seem more linebacker than defensive back and accordingly are given more underneath coverage tasks.

No. 29 Darrion Millines (6-1, 208, SR) had a key interception early in the UNT game and is a returning starter.  Their other starter is #8 Rodney Clemons (6-1, 185, FR) who is a young player they are high on.  Both backups are freshmen with #12 Kevin Johnson (5-10, 165, FR) and #4 Mikial Onu. (5-11, 191, FR)

SMU's top cornerback is #9 Horace Richardson (6-1, 201, SR) who snagged two interceptions in Denton last weekend.  He's a returning starter who has a lot of experience dating back to 2013.  #15 Jordan Wyatt (6-1, 195, SO) is the other starter who moved over from his role as starting safety last year as a redshirt freshman.

SPECIAL TEAMS

No. 5 Josh Williams (5-11, 170, SO) handles kickoffs for SMU and had three touchbacks on five kickoffs last week and #38 Michael Armstrong (5-9, 180, SO) had one touchback on two kickoffs.  The two also split field goal duties with Armstrong going 1/2 and Williams 1/1.  Their punter is #47 Jamie Sackville (5-11, 193, FR) who averaged 38 per punt last week on two kicks- one fair caught and one inside the twenty yard line.  Last year SMU was dangerous on kickoff returns and #6 Braeden West (5-10, 170, SO) ripped off a long one against the Bears.  Punt returns and the coverage units were not special though.

LAST YEAR...

SMU started off essentially copying what Michigan State had tried in the bowl game.  With Baylor starting a new QB they wanted to deny the run and used a very aggressive match quarters scheme to do it.  As you can see in the video below they were able to get what they wanted in terms of unblocked defenders but Baylor's runners were still able to make them miss or involving Russell as a runner helped open things up.



The byproduct of that is that they also gave up a lot in coverage as a result.  Baylor was able to hit them early and often in the air.



SMU did run some of their usual schemes for a while but Baylor was able to successfully run and throw against this.



Baylor stalled on the last two drives of the first half and to open the second half.  What happened?  Baylor made a lot of mistakes.  Illegal downfield penalties negated 20+ yard gains, the ball literally slipped out of Russell's hand, false starts, dropped passes, and illegal formation penalties all contributed here.

When SMU saw this offense again when they played Tulsa they used a lot more of their zone looks and would sprinkle in some corner blitzes and other wrinkles to try and disrupt the offense from a "safer" framework.  It yielded better results than the Baylor game but Tulsa was able to break their zones a couple times and use a run pass option draw play for a touchdown.

FINAL QUESTIONS

SMU is playing a lot of freshmen, since they are likely speed upgrades do you think SMU will take steps forward on defense this year?

It's really tough to say as SMU is in a tough division for defenses.  Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, and Navy are all in their division as well as non-conference opponents Baylor and TCU.  Even Tulane hired former Georiga Southern and Sam Houston State option spread guru Willie Fritz!  It's going to be a process before things get that much better but Morris is recruiting well.

If they do take a step forward it will likely be at the end of the year.  Their freshmen have growing pains like the video below.  A young safety keys on the wrong receiver and UNT gets a cheap touchdown.



Baylor's new 3 man front is similar in alignment to UNT.  How did UNT do against SMU in run defense?

Obviously not well when they give up 272 yards but I did see some things that make me optimistic.  On SMU's long 49 yard touchdown run the UNT defense had a linebacker fill the wrong gap and without that mistake the Mustangs are limited to 4.5 per tailback carry against a much less talented defense that is just as undersized as Baylor's.

How did the offensive line look against Northwestern State?

Baylor's line did outstanding against an outmatched opponent.  They were critical in the offense putting up zero sacks, one tackle for loss allowed, 47 yards per drive, gaining 95% of all possible yards on those drives, and scoring on every drive before being benched.  I am eager to see how this new group performs against a group that is much closer in talent than NSU was.  Particularly I am looking forward to seeing the new offensive tackles against Justin Lawler.

SCORE PREDICTION

Baylor gets creased for a couple explosive plays but pulls away from an SMU team that has certainly improved over the team that we all saw last year.  Baylor stays healthy.  Tack seven points more on for SMU if Matt Davis plays.  I can see SMU score on Baylor with their weapons but I can't see it consistently doing so or stopping Baylor's offense.

Baylor 59, SMU 20