S11's Stats Breakdown: UTSA Roadrunners

Statistics don't ever tell us the whole story but they can tell us a lot.  This article is an attempt to introduce what UTSA has done statistically over the last year, give it some context, and give some background before my premium X's and O's article comes out later.

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Offense

The Roadrunners have an offense that averaged a healthy 33.4 yards per drive last season against a schedule where their 12 FBS opponents averaged 35.77 against other FBS teams besides UTSA.  Their yards per drive, points per drive, and yards per non-sack carry are around 90% of what other teams gained against those 12 defenses.  Their yards per pass play (passing plays and sacks) is around 80% and is likely that low due to issues with pass protection where the Roadrunners allowed an alarming 10.49% sack rate that was 5% higher than what would be expected from other teams against their schedule. (Sacks divided by sacks + attempts)  When all games for all teams are included, the Roadrunners were 6th worst in sack rate nationally.  Assuming the Roadrunners don't copy Liberty's rollouts, maximum protections, screens, and RPO's there should be a good pass rush opportunity on Saturday.  They score a high percentage of what points are available in the red zone.

Offense Game By Game YPD and PPD

The Roadrunner offense underperformed in yards per drive against all but three opponents- Southern Mississippi, Charlotte, and New Mexico.  Charlotte and New Mexico were the most consistent outings whereas the Southern Mississippi game was a more explosive but inconsistent outing where UTSA got more yards on 4 plays for 320 yards than they did on the other 43 combined.  Their worst outings were against Arizona State, Texas A&M, and Colorado State who all held the runners to around 25 yards per drive or less.  The graphic below shows what UTSA averaged, what that opponent gave up to other FBS teams, and the background color shows whether those numbers would be good, average, or bad for a typical offense.

Defense

The stronger unit is the Roadrunner defense.  They give up slightly more yards per drive than you would expect but allow fewer points per drive.  They force a lower percentage of completions and hold opponents to fewer rushing yards on non-sack carries.  They are pretty typical in sack percentage and above average in red zone defense.  Their yards per pass play allowed is slightly higher than others get but is likely a trade-off with the completion percentage.

Defense Game By Game YPD and PPD

Their defense was all over the map in 2016.  They had outstanding outings against Colorado State and Charlotte with regards to yards per drive.  They also gave up over 50 per drive to Southern Miss and 37.5+ per drive to five other teams.  Their best outing by far is holding Charlotte 12.5 yards below their average against other FBS teams.  Their worst is Southern Miss where they gave up 16.3 more than expected.

Final Thoughts

The Roadrunners were a solid team last season that made it to a bowl and returns a lot of people.  They should be more than capable of challenging a young Baylor team under a new staff.  This game provides the Bears an opportunity to show last week was not who this team is by taking out a better team than they faced last week.

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