Predicting the Big 12 Season: Baylor Opens against Auburn in Week 1 Primetime Matchup
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Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of weeks, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion and make bowl projections.
Obviously, there is still a lot that can change, but barring significant injuries for any of the teams, we are in a good spot for some predictions. With that said, let's do this!
Baylor vs. Auburn: 7 p.m. CT, Friday, Aug. 29, at McLane Stadium (FOX)
Baylor has really struggled the past three seasons against ranked teams at home. There have been quite a few disappointments, a couple of blowouts and a couple of blown chances. Last year, Baylor squandered a chance against No. 22 BYU. In 2023, the Bears lost to No. 12 Utah and No. 3 Texas, and in 2022, they lost to No. 9 Oklahoma State, No. 19 Kansas State and No. 4 TCU.
Even if Auburn isn’t ranked, this is the type of big game that Baylor has been losing, aside from the TCU game a year ago. This trend makes this game scary to predict in the Bears' favor. Head coach Dave Aranda and Baylor have to fix this, but the good news is they get a chance in week one.
On the flip side, Auburn hasn’t been good under head coach Hugh Freeze, as he has just an 11-14 record over his first two seasons with the Tigers. It hasn’t been impressive at all, but this is a new season. He completely revamped the roster, and they leaned into NIL in a major way with one of the best transfer portal classes in the country.
The Tigers boast the best offensive line, wide receiver core and individual draft prospect (DE Keldric Faulk) the Bears will face all season long. This is a really tough task for those reasons.
Auburn’s biggest question mark is at quarterback with Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold coming in to try to revitalize his career after a rough start in Norman. He will make or break the Tigers' season and likely be the deciding factor in this game. If he suddenly plays up to his five-star status, then this is a College Football Playoff contender; if not, then this is likely a six-to-eight-win team.
There is no doubt that Auburn holds some advantages from an NFL talent standpoint, but Baylor holds the advantage from a cohesiveness and momentum standpoint after the strong run to end the 2024 season. Baylor’s offensive line is being underrated here, and Aranda’s ability to confuse a brand-new quarterback will likely stall the Auburn offense for enough stretches.
I have been torn about this game all offseason, as I think Auburn is very talented and could have a really good season. But it feels like an advantage for Baylor to get this team in the first game of the season, as they are still trying to integrate all their pieces, including a new quarterback. That is the difference in a very close game. Also, give me the team with the better quarterback in Sawyer Robertson, who is playing this game at home in McLane Stadium.
- Prediction: Auburn 20 at Baylor 24
Rest of the Big 12 Slate
Saturday, Aug. 23 (Week 0)
- Iowa State 24 vs. Kansas State 30 (Dublin, Ireland)
- Fresno State 20 at Kansas 34
Thursday, Aug. 28
- Jacksonville State 30 at UCF 37
- UT Martin 14 at Oklahoma State 38
- Stephen F. Austin 14 at Houston 28
- Cincinnati 20 vs. Nebraska 24 (Kansas City, MO)
Friday, Aug. 29
- Wagner 13 at Kansas 52
- Georgia Tech 35 at Colorado 27
Saturday, Aug. 30
- Robert Morris 9 at West Virginia 38
- North Dakota 6 at Kansas State 31
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7 at Texas Tech 45
- Portland State 13 at BYU 37
- Northern Arizona 14 at Arizona State 44
- Hawai’i 23 at Arizona 28
- Utah 20 at UCLA 17
Monday, Sept. 1
- TCU 37 at North Carolina 30
Big 12 Standings
- 1. Kansas State — 2-0 (1-0)
- 2. Kansas — 2-0 (0-0)
- T3. Baylor — 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. Arizona State – 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. Oklahoma State — 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. Arizona – 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. Utah – 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. TCU — 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. Texas Tech — 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. BYU — 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. UCF — 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. Houston — 1-0 (0-0)
- T3. West Virginia — 1-0 (0-0)
- T14. Cincinnati — 0-1 (0-0)
- T14. Colorado – 0-1 (0-0)
- 16. Iowa State — 1-1 (0-1)
