Free Stats Preview: TCU bringing stout defense, average offense to Waco
Baylor hosts TCU for Senior Day and will face off against a team with their backs to the wall as one more loss will keep TCU at home for the bowl season. The Frogs have been a solid program in the Big 12 but have dealt with a lot of injuries in 2018. How have they performed this year statistically?
Offense
The Horned Frog offense has been subpar most of the year. They average only 84% of what other Power 5 teams average against power league opponents. Some of this was due to losing starting Quarterback Shawn Robinson to injury but he wasn’t much better with only 91% before the OU game he saw three drives in. Michael Collins hit some big plays in his first couple of drives against the Sooners but mostly struggled (6.6 fewer yards per drive than par) and that figure gets worse when we ignore the outlier game against KU. This offense has some dangerous weapons but the production isn’t very good. They overperformed against Ohio State but much of that margin is due to one 93 yard run. They can hit big plays but they are prone to misfires.
I have included Baylor’s results against common opponents and outside of the KU game Baylor has outperformed TCU on offense consistently.
Offensive Overview Stats
The Frogs aren’t performing well in any of these metrics and the turnovers are the big key as it can squander field position that puts their strong defense in a bind. Their red zone efficiency is far below normal.
| TCU 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs P5 Opponents | |
| Yards Per Drive | 30.34 | 35.96 |
| Points Per Red Zone Trip | 3.55 | 4.93 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 2.38 | 1.38 |
| Yards Per Play | 5.24 | 5.98 |
| Yards Per Game | 358.63 | 424.52 |
| % Of Drives Scored | 25% | 39% |
| 3rd Down % | 38.71% | 40.48% |
Offensive Passing Game
This team is pretty fair in the passing game outside of the interception percentage. They aren’t matching par on the yardage stats but they are close enough. Their sack percentage allowed is strong and is better than par so they do a good job protecting the passer and getting rid of the ball.
| TCU 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs P5 Opponents | |
| Completion % | 57.8% | 61.39% |
| Yds/Att | 6.99 | 7.82 |
| Yds/Comp | 12.1 | 12.74 |
| Yards/Pass Play Including Sacks | 6.43 | 6.88 |
| Sack % | 4.08% | 6.24% |
| Int % | 3.4% | 2.04% |
Offensive Run Game
The Frogs lost several key linemen from last year and it shows. Outside of QB keepers they struggle to run the ball consistently despite having capable ball carriers.
| TCU 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs P5 Opponents | |
| Yards/Rush | 3.38 | 4.18 |
| Yards/Non-Sack Carry | 3.87 | 4.98 |
| QB Non-Sack YPC | 5.92 | 5.71 |
| Non-QB YPC | 3.73 | 4.98 |
| Run Play % | 46.25% | 47.12% |
Defense
Patterson is known for his defenses and this defense is a good one. Other than Ohio State, Oklahoma and West Virginia, they have managed to slow virtually everyone else down. The only team to dramatically do better against TCU than they did against others is KU. They did catch a little break in which Tech, KSU and ISU QB’s they had to face but their defensive resume is solid and they allow 85% of what other P5’s do to their power conference foes.
The comparison in common opponents is the inverse of the offensive one: they outperformed the Bears against all but Kansas.
Defensive Overview Stats
The Frogs are above average in red zone defense both objectively and compared to par. They aren’t as turnover happy as they probably should be but they get the job done in scoring percentage and in third down percentage.
| TCU 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs P5 Opponents | |
| Yards Per Drive | 32.4 | 38.03 |
| Points Per Red Zone Trip | 4.75 | 4.96 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| Yards Per Play | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| Yards Per Game | 390.38 | 449.27 |
| % Of Drives Scored | 39% | 44% |
| 3rd Down % | 36.04% | 42.79% |
Defensive Passing Game
The frogs do a good job against the pass and are similar or better to other P5’s in pass defense against their schedule. This is more impressive considering how much single or tight matchup coverage they run to better scheme against the run.
| TCU 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs P5 Opponents | |
| Completion % | 62.5% | 64.64% |
| Yds/Att | 7.56 | 8.23 |
| Yds/Comp | 12.1 | 12.74 |
| Yards/Pass Play Including Sacks | 6.69 | 7.37 |
| Sack % | 6.42% | 5.62% |
| Int % | 1.13% | 1.84% |
Defensive Run Game
They Frogs have had a calling card of risking the pass to deny the run and this team shows similar stats to what that trend implies. They consistently outperform the rushing statistics other P5’s give up to their schedule.
| TCU 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs P5 Opponents | |
| Yards/Rush | 3.78 | 4.47 |
| Yards/Non-Sack Carry | 4.32 | 5.16 |
| QB Non-Sack YPC | 5 | 5.77 |
| Non-QB YPC | 4.5 | 5.23 |
| Run Play % | 54.15% | 48.48% |
Special Teams
The Frogs aren’t doing much in kickoff returns and are slightly above what you’d expect returning punts. Their coverage teams are strong though. The Frogs are starting around 5.3 yards worse than their opponents in field position. This equates to around 60 yards of “hidden yards” when applied to the number of drives they average in a game. Other teams against their schedule start only a yard apart on average. This is likely due to turnovers and that creates a big opportunity for the Bears this Saturday.
| TCU 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs P5 Opponents | |
| Kick Return Average | 18.85 | 20.41 |
| Punt Return Average | 8.14 | 6.72 |
| Opponent Kick Return Average | 19.05 | 21.57 |
| Opponent Punt Return Average | 5 | 8.3 |
| Average Field Position | 74.38 | 72.29 |
| Opponent Average Field Position | 69.08 | 71.25 |
Conclusion
TCU is a program that can challenge for the league when it has an offense and one that is still a tough draw when they don’t because their defense is almost always very good, and in their Big 12 tenure, only one year really wasn’t. This offense is comparable to Kansas against common opponents in yards per drive (26.5, 26.3), points per red zone trip (3.38, 3.4), and third down percentage (34%, 33%) and they run a very similar scheme. The Frogs complete more passes (59% vs 51%) white the Jayhawks run it better. The big issue with TCU though is one of the top two defenses in the Big 12 is working to carry their offense to a bowl and the Bears need to have an answer for them.
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