S11 Stats Preview: 2018 Texas Tech
Baylor and Texas Tech meet in Arlington with a bowl game on the line this week! Both teams face win or go home and each will be motivated. What can the stats tell us about the Red Raiders?
Offense
Texas Tech has been a productive offense over the course of the 2018 season and is one of the better offenses that Baylor has faced in 2018. Their best offensive games were against Texas and Oklahoma State where they averaged over 50 yards per drive and vastly outperformed expectations. They stunk badly against KSU last week who had given up an average of 40+ yards per drive to other power conference teams. Outside of these games they’ve mostly been pretty average. Compared to the other Big 12 Air Raids they are clearly better than TCU and Kansas but clearly not the buzzsaw Oklahoma is and to a lesser extent WVU. Oklahoma State is probably the best comparison although the Pokes do slightly better against common foes.
Against common opponents the Red Raiders and Bears have been pretty similar in yards per drive overall but the individual opponent comparisons vary wildly. Baylor drove all over KSU and Tech couldn’t do anything while Tech humbled UT and Baylor was inconsistent in Austin.
Now Texas Tech has played three quarterbacks this fall. McLane Carter played the first two and a half drives against Ole Miss and did well before he got hurt and has only seen two or fewer drives in any other game after. Alan Bowman is their usual starter and has been solid but hasn’t really varied compared to expectations overall outside of a standout effort against Oklahoma State. Jett Duffey has been up and down with outstanding efforts against UT and WVU but lesser results against KSU, TCU, and OU. All three have had at least flashes of good results over the last couple of years and will present a challenge.
Offensive Overview Stats
Tech’s yards per drive vs par is held back by the KSU game — 38.38 vs 36.00 otherwise. They are productive but aren’t dramatically better than expectations. Their red zone scoring has been slightly below expectations and they’ve struggled to protect the ball in spite of converting third downs and scoring on a high percentage of drives.
| Texas Tech 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs Big 12/Ole Miss | |
| Yards Per Drive | 35.89 | 36.54 |
| Points Per Red Zone Trip | 4.79 | 4.83 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 2 | 1.26 |
| Yards Per Play | 5.69 | 6 |
| Yards Per Game | 454.22 | 422.52 |
| % Of Drives Scored | 40% | 41% |
| 3rd Down % | 43.7% | 41.05% |
Offensive Passing Game
The Red Raiders do a great job completing passes at a high percentage but their yards per pass is slightly lower than expected. They do a good job avoiding sacks but struggle to avoid interceptions.
| Texas Tech 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs Big 12/Ole Miss | |
| Completion % | 66.09% | 62.95% |
| Yds/Att | 7.33 | 7.89 |
| Yds/Comp | 11.09 | 12.54 |
| Yards/Pass Play Including Sacks | 6.59 | 6.99 |
| Sack % | 5.16% | 6.22% |
| Int % | 2.82% | 1.87% |
Offensive Run Game
Against Power 5 teams the Red Raiders aren’t the strongest running attack Baylor will face. Their non-sack and non-QB yards per carry isn’t strong. They are productive with QB runs but that can vary depending on who is taking snaps.
| Texas Tech 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs Big 12/Ole Miss | |
| Yards/Rush | 3.58 | 4.42 |
| Yards/Non-Sack Carry | 4.37 | 5.07 |
| QB Non-Sack YPC | 6.16 | 5.69 |
| Non-QB YPC | 4.17 | 5.12 |
| Run Play % | 40.75% | 51.28% |
Defense
Defensively the Red Raiders are similar to last year except they aren’t forcing as many turnovers. They allow P5 opponents to get around 2% more than what other P5’s get against them which is an improvement over prior years. They did really well against KU and OSU while being slightly better than expected vs ISU. They have been worse than par against every other team with Ole Miss and Texas being the worst ones. Mostly it’s an average defense that has faced some very good offenses.
Against common opponents they have outperformed Baylor slightly but both have significant holes.
Defensive Overview Stats
The Red Raiders have been very good in red zone defense and are average in forcing turnovers. They are giving up the same scoring drive and third down coversion percentage as the other power teams who faced their P5 opponents.
| Texas Tech 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs Big 12/Ole Miss | |
| Yards Per Drive | 37.24 | 36.12 |
| Points Per Red Zone Trip | 4.22 | 4.87 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| Yards Per Play | 6.23 | 6.13 |
| Yards Per Game | 454.67 | 425.85 |
| % Of Drives Scored | 41% | 41% |
| 3rd Down % | 38.76% | 40.17% |
Defensive Passing Game
They do a good job preventing completions but give up more yards when the opponents connect. Their sack percentage is basically par for their schedule and their interception percentage is slightly better than par.
| Texas Tech 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs Big 12/Ole Miss | |
| Completion % | 57.37% | 62.41% |
| Yds/Att | 8.18 | 8.07 |
| Yds/Comp | 14.26 | 12.94 |
| Yards/Pass Play Including Sacks | 7.15 | 7.11 |
| Sack % | 6.45% | 6.47% |
| Int % | 2.05% | 1.81% |
Defensive Run Game
Tech does a decent job slowing the run but for the most par will be right around par. Quarterback runs have hurt them which could be a big opportunity for Brewer.
| Texas Tech 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs Big 12/Ole Miss | |
| Yards/Rush | 4.38 | 4.41 |
| Yards/Non-Sack Carry | 5.23 | 5.14 |
| QB Non-Sack YPC | 6.38 | 5.71 |
| Non-QB YPC | 5.24 | 5.2 |
| Run Play % | 48.1% | 49.93% |
Special Teams
Tech does a good job on kickoff returns and struggles with punt returns. The same can be said for their opponents who Tech holds to similar averages. There doesn’t appear to be any consistent starting field position edge for them.
| Texas Tech 2018 | Other Power 5 Teams vs Big 12/Ole Miss | |
| Kick Return Average | 23.32 | 20.59 |
| Punt Return Average | 3.78 | 8.97 |
| Opponent Kick Return Average | 22.21 | 20.05 |
| Opponent Punt Return Average | 6.8 | 9.29 |
| Average Field Position | 71.81 | 71.22 |
| Opponent Average Field Position | 71.8 | 71.39 |
Conclusion
Tech is a solid team much like the other 5th-9th ranked teams in the Big 12 who have beaten each other up all year. Tech’s offense has overcome a revolving door at QB and their defense is performing better on yards and in the red zone while slipping a bit on the turnovers that boosted them a year ago. This is a game both teams need and should be a winnable matchup for both sides. This one could be a very entertaining matchup.
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