Film Room: How KSU will defend Baylor's offense

The Wildcat defense is one of the most consistent units from year to year in the Big 12.  Defensive coordinator Tom Hayes has a solid bend but don't break scheme and KSU does a great job recruiting to it and getting their players to execute it with few mistakes.

STATISTICS

The wildcats are a capable defense that bends but doesn't break.  Their yards per drive is above expectations against P5 teams averaging 41.8 yards per drive against teams that average 37.9 against other P5 teams however KSU's overall strategy and superior field position heps them give up fewer points per drive than their opponents typically get.  Combine this with almost two fewer possessions than opponents are used to and KSU gets the benefit of some stat skewing on defense but is offensively underappreciated.

KSU doesn't have a very high sack percentage or tackle for loss percentage but I attribute that more to scheme than talent.  They have talented players up front who are simply in a scheme that doesn't get very aggressive with blitzing all that often.

SCHEME

Like everything else KSU does the Wildcats try and "moneyball" their way to winning on the margins.  They do a good job with JC recruits and have an impeccable walk on program boosting them but Snyder knows he won't have first round talent each year.  So what does he do?  He drains the clock with his innovative offense and uses the limited number of drives that allows to weaponize their superior execution and discipline.

Kansas State will base out of a 4-3 that in Big 12 play replaces their strongside linebacker with a nickel back.   

They use primarily zone coverages with heavy use of split safety looks (C2, C4) and cover three.   They want to keep the offense in front of them and disguise their intentions until the last moment to use subtle but safe changes to get teams off the field like you see below where they slide a linebacker inside to deny the run at the last minute.



KSU absolutely wants to deny the big play and force teams to execute repeatedly.  Paired with their offensive strategy they turn the game into a discipline contest where their efficient and physical offense gets into a discipline contest with yours.

PERSONNEL

KSU's defense fits the existing mold for Wildcat defenses that Baylor fans have seen since 2010.  They feature solid interior DL that aren't behemoths and move well.  Good edge rushers at defensive end have been a hallmark of KSU's recent years.  The linebackers tend to be smaller and faster linebackers who make their conservative coverage shells solid underneath.  KSU isn't elite in the secondary but feature guys who don't get beat very often.

KSU's DEFENSIVE STANDOUTS

Defensive End #75 Jordan Willis (6-5, 258 lbs, Sr.):  He is arguably the top defensive end in the Big 12.  He has 9 sacks so far this season and is also capable against the run.

Defensive Tackle #60 Will Geary (6-0, 298 lbs, Jr.): Geary isn't the biggest but is a classic effort guy who makes plays.

Linebackers #9 Elijah Lee (6-3, 228 lbs, Jr.) and #52 Charmeachealle Moore (6-0, 228 lbs, Sr.): These two are very well rounded players and are very fast for their position.

Safety #22 Dante Barnett (6-1, 194 lbs, Sr.): A very experienced player who is an enforcer against the run with 231 career tackles.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker #16 Matthew McCrane (5-10, 165 lbs, Jr.) is a perfect ten of ten inside of 40 yards but 1/4 outside of that range.  Nick Walsh is a Ray Guy award candidate at punter.

KSU is 34th in kickoff coverage and 12th in punt coverage.  They do a good job in limiting opposing returners.  In the return game the Wildcats are in the top 12 nationally in both kickoff and punt returns.

With Zach Smith making his first start what does Baylor need to do to cater to his skill set?

Physically Smith is a lot like former Bear Bryce Petty in that he has a very strong arm with reasonable but not dangerous mobility.  So a lot of the offense will be similar to his tenure.  Baylor will still be a run oriented team but RPO's and some more aggressive deep throws will be used where option plays might have been used with a guy like Seth Russell.  Below you can see that Zach has the raw ability to execute every bit of the offense that Petty did.

What kind of a game plan do the Bears need to use to set Zach up for success against KSU?

Baylor needs to rely on the running game and run/pass option plays for the bulk of the offense and take shots deep when KSU over commits.  They did a great job of this with another true freshman last year in Jarrett Stidham.  Below you see Baylor using RPO plays to keep KSU's conservative coverages off balance when they tried to play conservative over the top but still outnumber the run.



Baylor needs to have the run available to them.  Using Zach's exceptional arm strength to stretch KSU's defense into easy visible reads where RPO plays can force them to tip their hand to the young quarterback will be beneficial.

This is once again not too different from the bread and butter schemes that Bryce Petty ran.  His 2014 performance against KSU is one of the best examples of Baylor's RPO game and run game keeping a bend but don't break defense on their heels all night.

How does Smith compare to Russell in accuracy?

It appeared like Seth never really regained his accuracy after the injury so based on a limited sample size Baylor might get an upgrade in that part of the offense.  Obviously Seth is a huge loss regardless of where he compared to how he played last year.

Didn't they do a great job defending Stanford?

They did a solid job (27 yards per drive) and prior to the final run of the night held Stanford's outstanding tailbacks to 3.3 per carry.  The issue was that when Stanford actually decided to pass they completed 79% and KSU largely couldn't consistently deny them.  KSU benefited greatly from a young quarterback and more importantly an offensive coordinator that became predictable trying to protect a young QB.  KSU was able to establish what Stanford wanted to do on standard downs and run blitzed them to set up third down with regularity.

Can BU win with a true freshman QB?

Yes.  They did it last year to KSU and won with an inexperienced QB against Oklahoma State and UNC as well.  If you want to go back really far the Bears took an injury depleted roster into Mizzou behind freshman Nick Florence and pulled the upset.  Zach has to play well but I fully expect Baylor to have a solid shot at victory.

What was one thing they did against Texas that they hadn't really done against BU very often?

KSU placed more responsibility on their nickel in single coverage to free up Dante Barnett to play more aggressively against the run. 



Baylor needs to have a way to make them pay for this tactic.

PREDICTION

Baylor goes to the wire against a tough opponent.  KSU escaped this scheme when UT made mistakes in Manhattan, Kansas and I think Baylor gets a sharper game here.  The Baylor offense has consistently dominated this opposing defensive scheme to the tune of 45 yards per drive over the last six meetings.  I have seen nothing to suggest that Smith will get wide eyed for this game especially when the kid came right off the bench in Norman and threw a touchdown without skipping a beat.  Baylor is faced with a 12 round fight but wins on senior day!

Baylor 34, KSU 31

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