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Baylor Football
Film Room: Bears look for bounce back against Red Raiders
Baylor heads to Dallas to take on Texas Tech who comes in treating this game as their de-facto bowl game as the 4-7 Red Raiders won't be playing this December. Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury is a brilliant offensive mind and will have his team presenting a stiff test to a retooled Baylor lineup. The Red Raiders are the most stereotypical Big 12 team- they throw it all the time while putting up video game numbers on offense but they also allow those numbers on defense.
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Their yards per pass play (sacks included) is 6.94 which is higher than expected. The Red Raiders do a good job sealing the deal in the Red Zone by scoring over 80% of the possible points they could score in the Red Zone. Their opponents typically yield 67.5%.
In terms of yards per drive they had a huge output of over 60 yards per drive against OU but most of their results have been modestly strong. The Red Raiders did however produce below expectation against West Virginia, TCU, and Iowa State.
In the running game Tech will use a lot of run/pass options like what you see below.
They will use primarily zone, power, and draw blocking schemes. With their mobile starting QB though they will use a lot of designed runs, quarterback options, and read plays.
Overall this attack has been among the deadliest in the country over the last few years.
The biggest star on Tech's team is unquestionably #5 Patrick Mahomes (6-3 230 SO). This kid is one of the biggest Houdini acts in the country- just when you think you have him he buys time for a back breaking throw or he runs for a big gain. He's one of three downright scary QBs in the Big 12 this year. Mahomes is a very mobile and elusive player with the arm strength to make very difficult throws on the run. He leads the country in passing yards, passing yards per game, and had 819 yards of total offense against Oklahoma. He has run for 851 yards over the last three seasons as well.
Tech has several speedy weapons at running back and receiver. Each may not be the biggest guy out there but can take a small throw and make very big plays. Top tailbacks include #4 Justin Stockton (5-10 200 JR), #23 Quinton White (5-7 215 SR), #27 Demarcus Felton (5-7 190 SO), and #32 Da'leon Ward (5-10 180 FR-HS) Top wideouts include #12 Ian Sadler (5-11 195 JR), #9 Jonathan Giles (5-11 185 SO), Reginald Davis (6-0 185 SR), #6 Devin Lauderdale (5-10 175 SR), and #14 #14 Dylan Cantrell (6-3 210 JR) who is a high school teammate of Mahomes.
The big regression for Tech is the offensive line. They have been forced into playing young players and the blend of talent and execution simply hasn't been up to previous standards. Tech has two capable seniors but apart from that is relying on redshirts and young JC transfers up front. Teams like TCU, West Virginia, Iowa State, and others have played three man fronts with very few people up near the line. Tech has struggled to block them where previous year Red Raider offenses would have punished defenses for tactics like this but this unit isn't quite up to it yet. Below you see an example of this against TCU:
The Red Raiders average giving up 26.6% more yards per drive than opponents average against other P5 teams. All but three opponents averaged over 40 per drive while Oklahoma and West Virginia averaged a jaw dropping 60 yards per drive. Tech gives up almost 1.5 yards more per non-sack carry than their P5 opponents average against other P5 teams.
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Tech also allows over 2 more yards per pass play and struggles to get sacks. The Red Raiders also give up 8% more of the available points in the Red Zone than their opponents typically get. Their best performances came against TCU and Kansas.
Their base coverage is usually some variation on Cover Three. This allows them to play "safe" coverage while I also getting an additional body create an eight man front against the run compared to split safety coverages like Cover Two that usually present seven man fronts. They tend to leave post routes and stop routes open due to playing very conservative variations on this coverage.
The other frequently used zone that Tech uses is Tampa 2. Two deep safeties are able to play outside routes more aggressively because a Linebacker drops deep into the space between the safeties. It has some vulnerability against the run but against the pass you can see it's effectiveness below:
One tactic that Tech uses as a change up is bringing pressure with either cover zero (straight man to man) or cover 1 (one deep safety plus man to man) and they used these looks extensively against Texas- their closest comparison to Baylor's offense. This tactic forced TCU to pass and shut down the Frogs.
Nose Tackle #9 Ondre Pipkins (6-3 325, SR-TR) is a Michigan transfer is a huge run stopper inside
Defensive Tackle #4 Breiden Fehoko (6-3 295, SO) is a former prized recruit who started since he arrived in Lubbock and is playing better than he did last season.
Corner #31 Justis Nelson (6-2 180, SR) has moved outside after playing Nickel last year and helped upgrade one corner spot.
Nickel #25 Douglas Coleman (6-1 175, FR-HS) has stepped in and played well at Nickel. He was the player with the 100 yard fumble touchdown against UT.
Tech is above average in punt returns but struggles with kickoff returns as well as both coverage units.
Second, Texas Tech has not been a model of solid and consistent play. Tech was absolutely embarrassed against Iowa State last week 66-10. Baylor may not do that but it does point to some weaknesses that Baylor can exploit.
I think you have to come after Mahomes any time you get them in third down. If you sit back and play coverage they'll just isolate you downfield and it boils down to de-facto man coverage without pressure. Three of the touchdowns from 2014 are exhibit a:
Last season Baylor played mostly well against a very productive and elite offense from the Red Raiders but three minor mistakes gave up touchdowns when it should have been stops.
With the exception of those three back breaking plays the Bears really held up most of the afternoon last season. I think a similar gameplan to last season would be a very good idea.
Baylor absolutely needs to use the WildBear in short yardage. Texas Tech showed zero consistency stopping this type of tactic against Iowa State, Arizona State, or Texas. Even when they played pure Cover Zero and packed the line with everyone they could as you can see below:
Baylor 42, Texas Tech 35
OFFENSIVE STATISTICS
On offense they are very good with 39.7 yards per drive against power five opponents. They give up only around a 4% sack rate which is impressive against opponents who average 6.3%. The Red Raiders struggle to run the ball (4.1 yards per non-sack carry compared to an expected average of 5.4) and therefore only run the ball around 33% of the time.
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Their yards per pass play (sacks included) is 6.94 which is higher than expected. The Red Raiders do a good job sealing the deal in the Red Zone by scoring over 80% of the possible points they could score in the Red Zone. Their opponents typically yield 67.5%.
In terms of yards per drive they had a huge output of over 60 yards per drive against OU but most of their results have been modestly strong. The Red Raiders did however produce below expectation against West Virginia, TCU, and Iowa State.
OFFENSE
The Red Raiders run an uptempo Air Raid style attack that they have been known for since most current recruits have been alive. They will frequently use four and five receivers and will happily throw the ball sixty times or more of a defense is set on taking the run away. This is a spread attack that passes to set up the run and will apply as much stress as they can on a defense. Their passing game is similar to the Air Raid attacks at OSU, OU, and NSU that Baylor has played earlier in the year. I broke some basic Air Raid concepts down in the NSU preview. Also another good resource on this offense can be found here.In the running game Tech will use a lot of run/pass options like what you see below.
They will use primarily zone, power, and draw blocking schemes. With their mobile starting QB though they will use a lot of designed runs, quarterback options, and read plays.
Overall this attack has been among the deadliest in the country over the last few years.
PERSONNEL
Tech lost some very talented NFL players on the line, at slot receiver, and at tailback since last season. Tech has struggled to replace that upside and has had significant attrition on the offensive line. This unit isn't nearly as strong as recent Tech offenses have been.The biggest star on Tech's team is unquestionably #5 Patrick Mahomes (6-3 230 SO). This kid is one of the biggest Houdini acts in the country- just when you think you have him he buys time for a back breaking throw or he runs for a big gain. He's one of three downright scary QBs in the Big 12 this year. Mahomes is a very mobile and elusive player with the arm strength to make very difficult throws on the run. He leads the country in passing yards, passing yards per game, and had 819 yards of total offense against Oklahoma. He has run for 851 yards over the last three seasons as well.
Tech has several speedy weapons at running back and receiver. Each may not be the biggest guy out there but can take a small throw and make very big plays. Top tailbacks include #4 Justin Stockton (5-10 200 JR), #23 Quinton White (5-7 215 SR), #27 Demarcus Felton (5-7 190 SO), and #32 Da'leon Ward (5-10 180 FR-HS) Top wideouts include #12 Ian Sadler (5-11 195 JR), #9 Jonathan Giles (5-11 185 SO), Reginald Davis (6-0 185 SR), #6 Devin Lauderdale (5-10 175 SR), and #14 #14 Dylan Cantrell (6-3 210 JR) who is a high school teammate of Mahomes.
The big regression for Tech is the offensive line. They have been forced into playing young players and the blend of talent and execution simply hasn't been up to previous standards. Tech has two capable seniors but apart from that is relying on redshirts and young JC transfers up front. Teams like TCU, West Virginia, Iowa State, and others have played three man fronts with very few people up near the line. Tech has struggled to block them where previous year Red Raider offenses would have punished defenses for tactics like this but this unit isn't quite up to it yet. Below you see an example of this against TCU:
DEFENSE
Defensive Statistics
The Red Raiders average giving up 26.6% more yards per drive than opponents average against other P5 teams. All but three opponents averaged over 40 per drive while Oklahoma and West Virginia averaged a jaw dropping 60 yards per drive. Tech gives up almost 1.5 yards more per non-sack carry than their P5 opponents average against other P5 teams.
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Tech also allows over 2 more yards per pass play and struggles to get sacks. The Red Raiders also give up 8% more of the available points in the Red Zone than their opponents typically get. Their best performances came against TCU and Kansas.
SCHEME
Defensively Texas Tech bases out of a 3-4 (three linemen, four linebacker) alignment that uses a lot of softer zone coverages. The goal for second year defensive coordinator David Gibbs is to force turnovers and not give up the big play.Their base coverage is usually some variation on Cover Three. This allows them to play "safe" coverage while I also getting an additional body create an eight man front against the run compared to split safety coverages like Cover Two that usually present seven man fronts. They tend to leave post routes and stop routes open due to playing very conservative variations on this coverage.
The other frequently used zone that Tech uses is Tampa 2. Two deep safeties are able to play outside routes more aggressively because a Linebacker drops deep into the space between the safeties. It has some vulnerability against the run but against the pass you can see it's effectiveness below:
One tactic that Tech uses as a change up is bringing pressure with either cover zero (straight man to man) or cover 1 (one deep safety plus man to man) and they used these looks extensively against Texas- their closest comparison to Baylor's offense. This tactic forced TCU to pass and shut down the Frogs.
PERSONNEL
Defensively Tech has mostly young personnel and has struggled most of the year as the growing pains and undisciplined play of young players has taken a toll. Some of their best players are:Nose Tackle #9 Ondre Pipkins (6-3 325, SR-TR) is a Michigan transfer is a huge run stopper inside
Defensive Tackle #4 Breiden Fehoko (6-3 295, SO) is a former prized recruit who started since he arrived in Lubbock and is playing better than he did last season.
Corner #31 Justis Nelson (6-2 180, SR) has moved outside after playing Nickel last year and helped upgrade one corner spot.
Nickel #25 Douglas Coleman (6-1 175, FR-HS) has stepped in and played well at Nickel. He was the player with the 100 yard fumble touchdown against UT.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Placekicker #96 Clayton Hatfield (5-10 170 SO) has only three misses out of 28 attempts are from outside of 40 yards. He also is the primary kickoff guy with touchbacks on 17 of his 46 kickoffs. Punter #49 (5-10 175 SO) Michael Barden averages 38 per kick.Tech is above average in punt returns but struggles with kickoff returns as well as both coverage units.
FINAL QUESTIONS
Baylor did not keep the score close against Kansas State. What reasons for optimism do Bear fans have for this game?
First off, Baylor gave up third down conversions when they had Jesse Ertz dead to rights on three different drives that ended up with KSU touchdowns. That is 21 points right there. Add to that a fumble on the goal line taking 3-7 points away from BU, three interceptions that set up KSU touchdowns, and a 70+ yard kickoff return... mistakes killed BU and those are correctable.Second, Texas Tech has not been a model of solid and consistent play. Tech was absolutely embarrassed against Iowa State last week 66-10. Baylor may not do that but it does point to some weaknesses that Baylor can exploit.
How would you defend Texas Tech?
First off I think this is a GREAT game to get both Blanchard and Levels on the field in Baylor's 3-4 defensive alignment. Tech's issues running the ball along with how capable Baylor's two nickel guys are in coverage bodes extremely well. Tech rarely uses a lot of larger blocking backs and tight ends so the added size is less of a premium.I think you have to come after Mahomes any time you get them in third down. If you sit back and play coverage they'll just isolate you downfield and it boils down to de-facto man coverage without pressure. Three of the touchdowns from 2014 are exhibit a:
Last season Baylor played mostly well against a very productive and elite offense from the Red Raiders but three minor mistakes gave up touchdowns when it should have been stops.
With the exception of those three back breaking plays the Bears really held up most of the afternoon last season. I think a similar gameplan to last season would be a very good idea.
Offensively what strategies would you recommend against Tech?
Tech will likely force Zach Smith to beat them when Baylor is in their standard sets. So from that standpoint a lot will be placed on the young QB but I do think that Baylor needs to be intentional with the run. Tech has struggled with the fundamentals of stopping the run as several young linebackers and defensive backs have been learning on the go during the season.Baylor absolutely needs to use the WildBear in short yardage. Texas Tech showed zero consistency stopping this type of tactic against Iowa State, Arizona State, or Texas. Even when they played pure Cover Zero and packed the line with everyone they could as you can see below:
The line struggled against KSU. Do you see that happening here?
No. This is the same line that ran all over Texas, ISU, OU, and did well in other games. They struggled with the best DE in the Big 12 (Willis), but should be up to the task this week.Tech's cover three gives one extra man against the run, do you consider running Zach?
I would do it sparingly just to make them play honest. However, I would happily hit them with the WildBear on a regular basis in short yardage.PREDICTION
Baylor gets into a shootout against a motivated Texas Tech team. Baylor's superior run game stretches for the win but it's close.Baylor 42, Texas Tech 35
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