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Baylor Football
S11: Northwestern State Offensive Breakdown
The Demon Offense is the stronger unit of Coach Thomas's team compared to their defense. It's was fairly productive against what is a pretty tough schedule for a Southland team last year. That schedule featured two top ten FCS teams, a Sun Belt team, and Mississippi State of the SEC.
Considering that the Demons averaged 37.3 yards per drive after the Mississippi State game, it's a pretty consistent offense. Generally speaking, I've found that 30-yards per drive is average for both an offense and a defense and straying too far from that becomes good or bad in a hurry.
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So they certainly show an ability to execute offensively as even approaching 40-yards per possession is a good sign offensively.
Northwestern State has run a variation of the Air Raid since 2013 when Head Coach Jay Thomas was hired. They installed it with their initial OC hire who came from Valdosta State. Valdosta State was one of the schools where Hal Mumme developed the Air Raid. The offense is based upon passing and revolutionized the Big 12 when it was brought to OU in 1999. He left after 2013 and they promoted Ben Lucas to OC. Lucas has kept the basic framework the same but expanded on their QB run game in ways that are similar to what West Virginia did with Skyler Howard or Oklahoma State with JW Walsh last season.
Most of their passing game is classic Air Raid with staples like 60 All Go (4 Verticals/Streaks), 61 Hitch, 93, 92 Mesh, 91 Post, 62 Y Stick, 94 (Y Sail/Flood), 95 (Y Cross), and others like 63 Y Corner. (3 Man Snag). You can see all of these in Valdosta's old playbook here.
They also will feature the extensive screen game you expect from an Air Raid team. They also tend to pair their tunnel screens (wide receiver screens with linemen pulling) with run action to the opposite direction as you see below.
Don't let the Air Raid background fool you, this team can and will lean on their running game if you don't force them out of it. Their basic run plays involve zone, power, and draw blocking. When they add in the QB as a runner they will add Option pitches, QB reads, and inverted QB reads to this basic foundation up front as you see below.
The WR sweep "touch pass" is something else they will use like a run play to attack the edge, usually when their pocket passers are in the game. It's a way to keep edge players honest.
One other wrinkle they use is sending their tailback on a wheel route. When paired with inside stemming routes from the wide receiver it functions as an effective pick play.
Northwestern State will take whatever you give them. They wildly fluctuate how much they run compared to pass as you can see below. It's pure "take what the defense gives you" much like we've seen from our own team in recent years.
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Quarterback: #9 Brooks Haack (6-1, 219, SR.) is expected to start and is an FBS transfer who ironically shredded NSU last season as a starter for UL-Lafayette. He's an athletic kid who can run a little bit while flashing a solid arm. The Katy HS product is moving from a run based system at ULL and may need some time to settle into this scheme.
No. 6 Joel Blumenthal (6-1, 203, JR.) is the likely backup who has experience as the starter. He's got less arm strength but is a dangerous runner as you can see below. In the game I was able to watch he was almost exclusively a running QB brought in like OSU used Walsh last year. He started a couple games and threw reasonably well but by the end of the season was the backup and designated "Wildcat QB". Their official site quotes their staff timing him at 4.38 in the 40 yard dash. Regardless of how accurate that is- this kid can fly so don't give him running room or else.
No. 5 JD Almond (6-0, 205, JR.) is third string and is related to former USM QB Dustin Almond who was a capable QB for some of Southern Miss's early 2000's teams.
Running Back: Their primary runner is #25 De'Mard Llorens (5-10, 214, SR.) who led them in rushing last year. He's a tough inside runner that earned preseason All-Conference honors. He's versatile enough in the passing game with almost 400 career receiving yards. After NSU graduated their dynamic scatback from last year we could see #20 Chris Jones (5-9, 185 Sr.-1L) take on that role. He showed very good speed and burst from what I saw.
Wide Receiver: They return a lot of experience and quickness. Their starter at the X wide receiver position is #1 Bobby Chan-Chan (6-0, 185, JR.) who racked up over 200 yards as a backup last season and is their tallest starter outside. The other outside receiver is probably their best deep threat #11 Tuff McClain (5-11, 190, SR,) who starts at the Z Receiver position and is just shy of 1,000 receiving yards in his career.
Their primary slot receiver is H Receiver #15 Shakeir Ryan (5-8, 162, SR.) who is the typical air raid slot guy- small, fast, and even faster out of his breaks. Ryan has utilized that skill set to rack up over 1,000 all purpose yards in his career.
Tight End: They graduated last year's starter and new starter #31 Charles Vaughn (5-11, 250, SO.) has seen time as a really big RB and at Tight End. He's shorter than you expect from the position but is more than capable and provides good athleticism.
The offensive line is reasonable but not a unit that is going to scare a Big 12 team. They return some talented players like guard #71 Terrance Boyd (6-3, 324, SR.) and tackle #72 Korliss Johnson (6-2, 289, JR.) who are among their standouts.
Their kicking and punting duties will be handled by Blinn College transfer kicker #37 Eric Piccione (5-11, 193, JR.) who averaged over 40 per punt and was 9/15 on field goals at Blinn. Their coverage teams allowed 24.8 per kick return and 10.9 per punt return which isn't strong ranking 112th and 90th in FCS last year. Their return game wasn't very productive ranking 105th and 121st in FCS last season. Their primary return man is starting slot receiver #15 Shakeir Ryan (5-8, 165, JR.) who takes over the role this season and NSU is hoping he provides more of a spark.
In 2014 Baylor was able to take them out of their game completely with tight coverage on the receivers and consistent pressure on a good quarterback they had starting at the time. They hit one 31 yard fade that was perfectly thrown against Reid and that was pretty much it. Baylor held them well below 20 yards per possession even with backups playing most of the second half. Schematically Bennett didn't do much that isn't expected from his matchup quarters base defenses although we got a little look at the three man front for a little while. Baylor simply took them out of their game and with Seth Russell rolling up tons of points it was all over.
Easily West Virginia, both are Air Raids that have added QB runs and have become more balanced in recent years to where they can find themselves leaning heavily on the run with more use of a Fullback and Tight End. This is more than you would expect given the reputation of Air Raid teams.
What will this match-up tell us about the Baylor defense and the new starters?
First and foremost it's going to test our new d-linemen and their ability to play disciplined. It's our first look at an essentially rebuilt line and seeing how well the new guys handle the interior gaps will be my first focus point. The next key will be the new starter at corner and how well they replace Xavien Howard. This team will throw it and should be a good introduction for the new guy.
How did this offense do against the better teams on it's schedule?
They performed well given the circumstances averaging 41 yards per drive against ULL, 37 against McNeese, and 33.7 against SHSU. Mississippi State held them to 19.5 per drive but the talent disparity there was obvious. Honestly they should be on par with the Lamar offense that Baylor faced last season.
Considering that the Demons averaged 37.3 yards per drive after the Mississippi State game, it's a pretty consistent offense. Generally speaking, I've found that 30-yards per drive is average for both an offense and a defense and straying too far from that becomes good or bad in a hurry.
SicEm365
So they certainly show an ability to execute offensively as even approaching 40-yards per possession is a good sign offensively.
Scheme
Northwestern State has run a variation of the Air Raid since 2013 when Head Coach Jay Thomas was hired. They installed it with their initial OC hire who came from Valdosta State. Valdosta State was one of the schools where Hal Mumme developed the Air Raid. The offense is based upon passing and revolutionized the Big 12 when it was brought to OU in 1999. He left after 2013 and they promoted Ben Lucas to OC. Lucas has kept the basic framework the same but expanded on their QB run game in ways that are similar to what West Virginia did with Skyler Howard or Oklahoma State with JW Walsh last season.
Passing
Most of their passing game is classic Air Raid with staples like 60 All Go (4 Verticals/Streaks), 61 Hitch, 93, 92 Mesh, 91 Post, 62 Y Stick, 94 (Y Sail/Flood), 95 (Y Cross), and others like 63 Y Corner. (3 Man Snag). You can see all of these in Valdosta's old playbook here.
They also will feature the extensive screen game you expect from an Air Raid team. They also tend to pair their tunnel screens (wide receiver screens with linemen pulling) with run action to the opposite direction as you see below.
RUN GAME
Don't let the Air Raid background fool you, this team can and will lean on their running game if you don't force them out of it. Their basic run plays involve zone, power, and draw blocking. When they add in the QB as a runner they will add Option pitches, QB reads, and inverted QB reads to this basic foundation up front as you see below.
The WR sweep "touch pass" is something else they will use like a run play to attack the edge, usually when their pocket passers are in the game. It's a way to keep edge players honest.
One other wrinkle they use is sending their tailback on a wheel route. When paired with inside stemming routes from the wide receiver it functions as an effective pick play.
TENDENCIES
Northwestern State will take whatever you give them. They wildly fluctuate how much they run compared to pass as you can see below. It's pure "take what the defense gives you" much like we've seen from our own team in recent years.
SicEm365
Personnel
Quarterback: #9 Brooks Haack (6-1, 219, SR.) is expected to start and is an FBS transfer who ironically shredded NSU last season as a starter for UL-Lafayette. He's an athletic kid who can run a little bit while flashing a solid arm. The Katy HS product is moving from a run based system at ULL and may need some time to settle into this scheme.
No. 6 Joel Blumenthal (6-1, 203, JR.) is the likely backup who has experience as the starter. He's got less arm strength but is a dangerous runner as you can see below. In the game I was able to watch he was almost exclusively a running QB brought in like OSU used Walsh last year. He started a couple games and threw reasonably well but by the end of the season was the backup and designated "Wildcat QB". Their official site quotes their staff timing him at 4.38 in the 40 yard dash. Regardless of how accurate that is- this kid can fly so don't give him running room or else.
No. 5 JD Almond (6-0, 205, JR.) is third string and is related to former USM QB Dustin Almond who was a capable QB for some of Southern Miss's early 2000's teams.
Running Back: Their primary runner is #25 De'Mard Llorens (5-10, 214, SR.) who led them in rushing last year. He's a tough inside runner that earned preseason All-Conference honors. He's versatile enough in the passing game with almost 400 career receiving yards. After NSU graduated their dynamic scatback from last year we could see #20 Chris Jones (5-9, 185 Sr.-1L) take on that role. He showed very good speed and burst from what I saw.
Wide Receiver: They return a lot of experience and quickness. Their starter at the X wide receiver position is #1 Bobby Chan-Chan (6-0, 185, JR.) who racked up over 200 yards as a backup last season and is their tallest starter outside. The other outside receiver is probably their best deep threat #11 Tuff McClain (5-11, 190, SR,) who starts at the Z Receiver position and is just shy of 1,000 receiving yards in his career.
Their primary slot receiver is H Receiver #15 Shakeir Ryan (5-8, 162, SR.) who is the typical air raid slot guy- small, fast, and even faster out of his breaks. Ryan has utilized that skill set to rack up over 1,000 all purpose yards in his career.
Tight End: They graduated last year's starter and new starter #31 Charles Vaughn (5-11, 250, SO.) has seen time as a really big RB and at Tight End. He's shorter than you expect from the position but is more than capable and provides good athleticism.
The offensive line is reasonable but not a unit that is going to scare a Big 12 team. They return some talented players like guard #71 Terrance Boyd (6-3, 324, SR.) and tackle #72 Korliss Johnson (6-2, 289, JR.) who are among their standouts.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Their kicking and punting duties will be handled by Blinn College transfer kicker #37 Eric Piccione (5-11, 193, JR.) who averaged over 40 per punt and was 9/15 on field goals at Blinn. Their coverage teams allowed 24.8 per kick return and 10.9 per punt return which isn't strong ranking 112th and 90th in FCS last year. Their return game wasn't very productive ranking 105th and 121st in FCS last season. Their primary return man is starting slot receiver #15 Shakeir Ryan (5-8, 165, JR.) who takes over the role this season and NSU is hoping he provides more of a spark.
Last Time BU Faced NWST
In 2014 Baylor was able to take them out of their game completely with tight coverage on the receivers and consistent pressure on a good quarterback they had starting at the time. They hit one 31 yard fade that was perfectly thrown against Reid and that was pretty much it. Baylor held them well below 20 yards per possession even with backups playing most of the second half. Schematically Bennett didn't do much that isn't expected from his matchup quarters base defenses although we got a little look at the three man front for a little while. Baylor simply took them out of their game and with Seth Russell rolling up tons of points it was all over.
FINAL QUESTIONS
Who do they schematically remind you of from Baylor's recent opponents on offense?Easily West Virginia, both are Air Raids that have added QB runs and have become more balanced in recent years to where they can find themselves leaning heavily on the run with more use of a Fullback and Tight End. This is more than you would expect given the reputation of Air Raid teams.
What will this match-up tell us about the Baylor defense and the new starters?
First and foremost it's going to test our new d-linemen and their ability to play disciplined. It's our first look at an essentially rebuilt line and seeing how well the new guys handle the interior gaps will be my first focus point. The next key will be the new starter at corner and how well they replace Xavien Howard. This team will throw it and should be a good introduction for the new guy.
How did this offense do against the better teams on it's schedule?
They performed well given the circumstances averaging 41 yards per drive against ULL, 37 against McNeese, and 33.7 against SHSU. Mississippi State held them to 19.5 per drive but the talent disparity there was obvious. Honestly they should be on par with the Lamar offense that Baylor faced last season.
PREDICTION?
Baylor doesn't look perfect, takes care of business, and finally gets to have a news story on something positive in the only time I can ever remember Baptists eagerly awaiting Demons.Baylor 56, NSU 17
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