I was reluctant to get too excited about Novosad until we had a more final decision. These days its not 100% even after they sign but its time to get excited nonetheless. Newsflash... the Novosad kid can play.

Arch Manning will be a great player (unfortunately for UT). I am not tearing this kid down. I wanted to see how he stacks up stat-wise against Novasad since Manning gets a bigger headline. Keep in mind Manning plays in a smallish private school league (Peyton played there too). Novasad played last year in Texas 5A (Dripping Springs moves up to 6A this next season). Dripping Springs has a pretty easy schedule. They are a way bigger school than most of their competition. I bring all of this up to keep perspective. You can make comparisons and assumptions based on HS stats but it's also not a clear picture. Just admitting that up front.

That being said. The stat difference is pretty significant.

2021 Season:
A. Manning 195/ypg 2.4 td/g 105.8 QBR
A. Novosad 309/ypg 3.6 td/g 126.5 QBR

Novasad was top 10 at the Elite 11 camp (note: Iowa State QB JJ Kohl was #2 in the camp rankings. Kid is 6'6" and will be a player). Manning did no camps. There is no way to know how good Manning really is. We can tell from on the field and camps Novosad has the gift. There is also no spotlight with Novosad vs Manning. I think that helps him and the team.

I would take either player. Either or both could be and should be amazing. But I give the edge to Novosad. Baylor football has an exciting future.

Thanks for posting the stats. I agree the two quarterbacks are hard to compare. But based on what I know, I'm confident we'll look back in 5 years and think we got the better one.

It's hard to know what to make of Arch Manning's high school numbers honestly. You wonder if he had a different name with the same exact resume if he'd even be a 5-star.

Newman is a small 2A school in an unimpressive private school league and he put up 1900 yards and 26 TDs last year as a junior. That said, I know nothing about their system, about the talent around him, about their coaching staff. They may not open it up very much because he has nobody to throw to. I don't follow New Orleans high school football closely enough to know.

That said, it's 2A Louisiana football. If he was the second coming, those guys tend to get their numbers regardless. Novosad certainly did, but Drip also slangs it like most Texas high schools these days, so I dunno. His competition level is certainly leagues higher than Manning's.

There is no question Arch is a really, really good prospect. What might get him though is that he has the highest overall recruiting grade from 247 of any player since Vince Young 20 years ago. Call me skeptical.

JP1037 said:

---

I was reluctant to get too excited about Novosad until we had a more final decision. These days its not 100% even after they sign but its time to get excited nonetheless. Newsflash... the Novosad kid can play.

Arch Manning will be a great player (unfortunately for UT). I am not tearing this kid down. I wanted to see how he stacks up stat-wise against Novasad since Manning gets a bigger headline. Keep in mind Manning plays in a smallish private school league (Peyton played there too). Novasad played last year in Texas 5A (Dripping Springs moves up to 6A this next season). Dripping Springs has a pretty easy schedule. They are a way bigger school than most of their competition. I bring all of this up to keep perspective. You can make comparisons and assumptions based on HS stats but it's also not a clear picture. Just admitting that up front.

That being said. The stat difference is pretty significant.

2021 Season:
A. Manning 195/ypg 2.4 td/g 105.8 QBR
A. Novosad 309/ypg 3.6 td/g 126.5 QBR

Novasad was top 10 at the Elite 11 camp (note: Iowa State QB JJ Kohl was #2 in the camp rankings. Kid is 6'6" and will be a player). Manning did no camps. There is no way to know how good Manning really is. We can tell from on the field and camps Novosad has the gift. There is also no spotlight with Novosad vs Manning. I think that helps him and the team.

I would take either player. Either or both could be and should be amazing. But I give the edge to Novosad. Baylor football has an exciting future.

---

Great post. I would be cautious about deminishing ANY Texas HS football schedule from Class 3A or higher - - versus size of the school, what's the % Boys to Total Population X % of Football players on average....that might provide better context on the large scale of opportunities kids have to even play, let alone start on a Football team and be the QB as well.

Let's get him signed - in the door and on the field. He's definitely adds the Cherry on the Top of an amazing class of recruits by DA and Staff..

and I can't stand the Mannings so no comment..

What Arch has is a prototypical build better than either Peyton or Eli ever had, impeccable mechanics, and a lifetime of tutelage from the best in the business - who were both forced to win games mentally since they lacked Arch's physical gifts.

It's true that the sample size is small and not helpful. However, there's nothing in the sample that disagrees with observation.

Both of these high-schoolers are "good enough". Neither are ready to play collegiate ball right now. In order to win college games, both will need development.

Imagine reading a high school defense where you're pretty sure the coverage you see is the coverage you get. Your best WR can take the DB off the line and be open by 3 yards as the Safety jogs over to get a good look.

Now, imagine reading a collegiate defense where the two-high safety spins down, the DL slanted to allow the LB to switch and cover the underneath. Quickly (since the DT super-loop left the MLB free to run right at you), did the single high safety go field or boundary? One of your receivers has a step on his man-coverage. Your window is 2 feet wide, and 40 yards downfield. Can you find it and hit it?

Year behind but here are DJ Lagway's passing stats from this past season:

131 yds/game, 1.4 tds/game, 94.5 rating.

I guess my point is there is apparently more to it than high school stats. Don't know.

There is, and I'm no guru. Full stop.

That said, I'd like to see some HS production if you're a certified badass (especially if you're playing at a lower level - and lots of great players come from lower levels). Otherwise, I'm concerned there is something missing (eg Tyrone Swoopes).

Robert Wilson said:

---

There is, and I'm no guru. Full stop.

That said, I'd like to see some HS production if you're a certified badass (especially if you're playing at a lower level - and lots of great players come from lower levels). Otherwise, I'm concerned there is something missing (eg Tyrone Swoopes).

---

I'm with you. I'm hoping to see some of that from DJ this year. Some oh my goodness moments

BluesBear said:

---

JP1037 said:

---

I was reluctant to get too excited about Novosad until we had a more final decision. These days its not 100% even after they sign but its time to get excited nonetheless. Newsflash... the Novosad kid can play.

Arch Manning will be a great player (unfortunately for UT). I am not tearing this kid down. I wanted to see how he stacks up stat-wise against Novasad since Manning gets a bigger headline. Keep in mind Manning plays in a smallish private school league (Peyton played there too). Novasad played last year in Texas 5A (Dripping Springs moves up to 6A this next season). Dripping Springs has a pretty easy schedule. They are a way bigger school than most of their competition. I bring all of this up to keep perspective. You can make comparisons and assumptions based on HS stats but it's also not a clear picture. Just admitting that up front.

That being said. The stat difference is pretty significant.

2021 Season:
A. Manning 195/ypg 2.4 td/g 105.8 QBR
A. Novosad 309/ypg 3.6 td/g 126.5 QBR

Novasad was top 10 at the Elite 11 camp (note: Iowa State QB JJ Kohl was #2 in the camp rankings. Kid is 6'6" and will be a player). Manning did no camps. There is no way to know how good Manning really is. We can tell from on the field and camps Novosad has the gift. There is also no spotlight with Novosad vs Manning. I think that helps him and the team.

I would take either player. Either or both could be and should be amazing. But I give the edge to Novosad. Baylor football has an exciting future.

---

Great post. I would be cautious about deminishing ANY Texas HS football schedule from Class 3A or higher - - versus size of the school, what's the % Boys to Total Population X % of Football players on average....that might provide better context on the large scale of opportunities kids have to even play, let alone start on a Football team and be the QB as well.

Let's get him signed - in the door and on the field. He's definitely adds the Cherry on the Top of an amazing class of recruits by DA and Staff..

---

No intention to diminish any Texas HS product regardless of the Class size of the school. No doubt studs can be found at any level in Texas. I just know the Dripping Springs program (my son played a different sport there and got to regionals - they win in most sports). DSHS is bigger with some of the best facilities in the state and many stud athletes whose families want to get out of the nonsense of Austin go there so they have some pretty big advantages over the other teams in their district. All changes this coming year when they join Westlake and Lake Travis. A whole different level from every position on the field.

What Arch has is a prototypical build better than either Peyton or Eli ever had end quote.

I'm pretty sure Peyton and Eli were both 6'5" and 220-230 pounds, struggling to see how that is not prototypical QB build. Mechanics were good enough for 5 Super Bowl rings between them. UT entitlement mentality plus 3rd generation rich boy entitlement mentality will be difficult to overcome. Not impossible, but very difficult.

JP1037 said:

---

BluesBear said:

---

JP1037 said:

---

I was reluctant to get too excited about Novosad until we had a more final decision. These days its not 100% even after they sign but its time to get excited nonetheless. Newsflash... the Novosad kid can play.

Arch Manning will be a great player (unfortunately for UT). I am not tearing this kid down. I wanted to see how he stacks up stat-wise against Novasad since Manning gets a bigger headline. Keep in mind Manning plays in a smallish private school league (Peyton played there too). Novasad played last year in Texas 5A (Dripping Springs moves up to 6A this next season). Dripping Springs has a pretty easy schedule. They are a way bigger school than most of their competition. I bring all of this up to keep perspective. You can make comparisons and assumptions based on HS stats but it's also not a clear picture. Just admitting that up front.

That being said. The stat difference is pretty significant.

2021 Season:
A. Manning 195/ypg 2.4 td/g 105.8 QBR
A. Novosad 309/ypg 3.6 td/g 126.5 QBR

Novasad was top 10 at the Elite 11 camp (note: Iowa State QB JJ Kohl was #2 in the camp rankings. Kid is 6'6" and will be a player). Manning did no camps. There is no way to know how good Manning really is. We can tell from on the field and camps Novosad has the gift. There is also no spotlight with Novosad vs Manning. I think that helps him and the team.

I would take either player. Either or both could be and should be amazing. But I give the edge to Novosad. Baylor football has an exciting future.

---

Great post. I would be cautious about deminishing ANY Texas HS football schedule from Class 3A or higher - - versus size of the school, what's the % Boys to Total Population X % of Football players on average....that might provide better context on the large scale of opportunities kids have to even play, let alone start on a Football team and be the QB as well.

Let's get him signed - in the door and on the field. He's definitely adds the Cherry on the Top of an amazing class of recruits by DA and Staff..

---

No intention to diminish any Texas HS product regardless of the Class size of the school. No doubt studs can be found at any level in Texas. I just know the Dripping Springs program (my son played a different sport there and got to regionals - they win in most sports). DSHS is bigger with some of the best facilities in the state and many stud athletes whose families want to get out of the nonsense of Austin go there so they have some pretty big advantages over the other teams in their district. All changes this coming year when they join Westlake and Lake Travis. A whole different level from every position on the field.

---

Totally agree. Beautiful facilities and location...

if we are going to talk about his "family" heritage then we also need to address his own family genetics which does include Spinal Stenosis issues...

Manning chose the wrong school. He has a lot of knowledge and talent. The only criticism I heard about Manning from high school is that he didn't show up in big games.

Bakersdozen said:

---

Manning chose the wrong school. He has a lot of knowledge and talent. The only criticism I heard about Manning from high school is that he didn't show up in big games.

---

"...didn't show up in big games." Should be a perfect fit in Austin.

Bakersdozen said:

---

Manning chose the wrong school. He has a lot of knowledge and talent. The only criticism I heard about Manning from high school is that he didn't show up in big games.

---

That explains why he chose UT then. 5-7 teams don't have many big games.