What happened with Aranda

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FLBear5630
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6:34a, 9/26/23
So, what happened with Aranda. He seemed to be on an upward trajectory, than the bottom fell out.

So, what happened? Some say it was all Rhules recruits, which may play in to this situation.

I want to float another thought, no proof just gut feeling.

How is Aranda thought of in Texas recruiting? Did the Briles, Maguire and the Roberts situations hurt his credibility at Tx HSs? I had an opportunity to see what happens at a P5 when the HS pipelines are shut off. Usually, signs are that another school of similar stature starts to climb. So, did BU lose the ear of the HS coaches?

Michigan turned on RR because they didn't like him cutting off recruits and Mich St was the benefactor. Hoke and Harbaugh, "UM men", came in and the pipeline opened...Back to top 5. Is BU experiencing a similar effect, naturally at a lower level, to those situations I mentioned above? Is Aranda basically not going to pull it out because he is not getting access to the recruits Briles and Rhule did? Let's face it HS coaches play a big role in college recruiting. Just a thought.
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BigGameBaylorBear
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7:18a, 9/26/23
I'm sure this is one of many reasons for our drop off
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PartyBear
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7:29a, 9/26/23
Y'all still think like it is pre 2021. I'm concerned the people running Baylor do as well or worse they agree with I'm about to say but stubbornly want to be denial about it and think that will make it go back to how it was where shiny new buildings etc. do the trick.

NIL is the pipeline now.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to PartyBear • 7:49a, 9/26/23
PartyBear said:
Y'all still think like it is pre 2021. I'm concerned the people running Baylor do as well or worse they agree with I'm about to say but stubbornly want to be denial about it and think that will make it go back to how it was.

NIL is the pipeline now.
NIL is A pipeline, I agree. So, my question is if Baylor is even in the conversation with the players where NIL would make a difference? Could Baylor have come up with an NIL package that would have kept Novasad in Waco?
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william
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7:50a, 9/26/23
starting to let my harrr grow back.

- KKM



Are you a man or a mouse!? - F. D.
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PartyBear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:01a, 9/26/23
FLBear5630 said:
PartyBear said:
Y'all still think like it is pre 2021. I'm concerned the people running Baylor do as well or worse they agree with I'm about to say but stubbornly want to be denial about it and think that will make it go back to how it was.

NIL is the pipeline now.
NIL is A pipeline, I agree. So, my question is if Baylor is even in the conversation with the players where NIL would make a difference? Could Baylor have come up with an NIL package that would have kept Novasad in Waco?


If it is true we pay everyone 3k a semester or year. The answer is a resounding no. Which I would go ahead and say is the main contributor to where we are. Which means it really doesn't matter who the HC is if that is all we do. I would add we won't have an attractive candidate pool either if that is what Baylor does regarding NIL if we fired Aranda. But I suppose your question is if Baylor could buy great talent and not whether at this time they would.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to PartyBear • 8:09a, 9/26/23
PartyBear said:
FLBear5630 said:
PartyBear said:
Y'all still think like it is pre 2021. I'm concerned the people running Baylor do as well or worse they agree with I'm about to say but stubbornly want to be denial about it and think that will make it go back to how it was.

NIL is the pipeline now.
NIL is A pipeline, I agree. So, my question is if Baylor is even in the conversation with the players where NIL would make a difference? Could Baylor have come up with an NIL package that would have kept Novasad in Waco?


If it is true we pay everyone 3k a semester or year. The answer is a resounding no. Which I would go ahead and say is the main contributor to where we are. Which means it really doesn't matter who the HC is if that is all we do. I would add we won't have an attractive candidate pool either if that is what Baylor does regarding NIL if we fired Aranda. But I suppose your question is if Baylor could buy great talent and not whether at this time they would.
No, your point is better. If Baylor won't do it, it doesn't matter if we can do it. There are three options

1 - You pay for top athletes that want and can go to the league. Here you will get what you pay for, better citizens, better players and know exactly what motivates them.

2 - You can do what Briles did, take more chances. You can and will find just as many good players, but the risk of legal issues is much higher.

3 - Keep doing what we are and ultimately drop to G5 and become Tulsa-level. Leave the P5 to TCU and SMU, the programs willing to spend and take risks. Don't compete. This seems to be what Rhodes prefers.
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Killing Floor
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8:26a, 9/26/23
It's not complicated.

He built a very successful career following the process of winning head coaches.
Then he became a head coach based solely on the successes of his former bosses.
And he apparently didn't receive mentorship in the process.

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Johnny Bear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:32a, 9/26/23
FLBear5630 said:
PartyBear said:
Y'all still think like it is pre 2021. I'm concerned the people running Baylor do as well or worse they agree with I'm about to say but stubbornly want to be denial about it and think that will make it go back to how it was.

NIL is the pipeline now.
NIL is A pipeline, I agree. So, my question is if Baylor is even in the conversation with the players where NIL would make a difference? Could Baylor have come up with an NIL package that would have kept Novasad in Waco?

If not being competitive with larger more resources rich state school types as far as NIL goes is a major factor in all of this, then why is a school like TCU currently kicking our butts in recruiting? Doesn't BU have at least roughly equal or greater resources than the toads?
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Johnny Bear • 8:38a, 9/26/23
Johnny Bear said:
FLBear5630 said:
PartyBear said:
Y'all still think like it is pre 2021. I'm concerned the people running Baylor do as well or worse they agree with I'm about to say but stubbornly want to be denial about it and think that will make it go back to how it was.

NIL is the pipeline now.
NIL is A pipeline, I agree. So, my question is if Baylor is even in the conversation with the players where NIL would make a difference? Could Baylor have come up with an NIL package that would have kept Novasad in Waco?

If not being competitive with larger more resources rich state school types as far as NIL goes is a major factor in all of this, then why is a school like TCU currently kicking our butts in recruiting? Doesn't BU have at least roughly equal or greater resources than the toads?
We may have more resources. But, having the will to spend it on NIL and football is another question...
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BylrFan
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9:13a, 9/26/23
Armada is a coordinator, not a motivator
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Stefano DiMera
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9:20a, 9/26/23
NIL doesn't have anything to do with our CURRENT situation..most of these players here now were pre NIL.

We won't see that effect for a couple years.

This is a talent evaluation and player development issue.
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Gametime
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9:36a, 9/26/23
How can Washington State and Oregon State do it with faaaaarrrr less resources than us. Bad AD and Bad Coaching. And for sure bad recruiting.

Blame NIL. Blame being in Waco. If you can't recruit you lose. And if you don't have players to hide your bad coaching you lose. What do we have??? An excuse making machine.
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Russell Gym
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 9:42a, 9/26/23
FLBear5630 said:
PartyBear said:
FLBear5630 said:
PartyBear said:
Y'all still think like it is pre 2021. I'm concerned the people running Baylor do as well or worse they agree with I'm about to say but stubbornly want to be denial about it and think that will make it go back to how it was.

NIL is the pipeline now.
NIL is A pipeline, I agree. So, my question is if Baylor is even in the conversation with the players where NIL would make a difference? Could Baylor have come up with an NIL package that would have kept Novasad in Waco?


If it is true we pay everyone 3k a semester or year. The answer is a resounding no. Which I would go ahead and say is the main contributor to where we are. Which means it really doesn't matter who the HC is if that is all we do. I would add we won't have an attractive candidate pool either if that is what Baylor does regarding NIL if we fired Aranda. But I suppose your question is if Baylor could buy great talent and not whether at this time they would.
No, your point is better. If Baylor won't do it, it doesn't matter if we can do it. There are three options

1 - You pay for top athletes that want and can go to the league. Here you will get what you pay for, better citizens, better players and know exactly what motivates them.

2 - You can do what Briles did, take more chances. You can and will find just as many good players, but the risk of legal issues is much higher.

3 - Keep doing what we are and ultimately drop to G5 and become Tulsa-level. Leave the P5 to TCU and SMU, the programs willing to spend and take risks. Don't compete. This seems to be what Rhodes prefers.

2. The players Briles took chances on would garner good NIL offers today. Many were exceptional players, not exceptional citizens, hence "taking a chance." Plenty of programs will take a chance, along with extending a good NIL offer. Unlikely Baylor will do either of those.
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chriscbear
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9:57a, 9/26/23
Most of Briles players were not bad dudes or citizens.
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GoodOleBaylorLine
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In reply to Russell Gym • 10:09a, 9/26/23
Russell Gym said:

The players Briles took chances on would garner good NIL offers today. Many were exceptional players, not exceptional citizens, hence "taking a chance." Plenty of programs will take a chance, along with extending a good NIL offer. Unlikely Baylor will do either of those.

The school was also not able or willing to protect them. This is probably the primary point that gets sold against us.

In the same time frame we were dealing with our issues, A&M, Tenn and Mich St did a masterful job of sweeping their issues under the rug. I am sure there were other schools where you never even heard about it.

As I noted in another thread, UT has never had a single football player convicted of sexual assault although they have had a few charged (mostly charges later dropped). It kind of boggles the mind that they've had around 120 players on their roster for decades and not a single one of them falls into the 10% of men that are estimated to a be sexual predator.

I am not saying it is right. But it is the way the world works.
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DallasBear9902
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10:14a, 9/26/23
Aranda is a general fighting the last war. Recruiting high character guys that will stay in the development pipeline and wait their turn is the Nick Saban model (notice who else is struggling by their standards this year?).

CFB is now more like college basketball. It's about reloading every year through the portal and using NIL to add top tier recruits that can contribute right away.

I love DA as person and leader, but he's not mentally built for this paradigm shift in college football. I don't think he was a bad hire at the time and he delivered a conference championship and sugar bowl title. Just bad luck on timing.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to DallasBear9902 • 10:23a, 9/26/23
DallasBear9902 said:
Aranda is a general fighting the last war. Recruiting high character guys that will stay in the development pipeline and wait their turn is the Nick Saban model (notice who else is struggling by their standards this year?).

CFB is now more like college basketball. It's about reloading every year through the portal and using NIL to add top tier recruits that can contribute right away.

I love DA as person and leader, but he's not mentally built for this paradigm shift in college football. I don't think he was a bad hire at the time and he delivered a conference championship and sugar bowl title. Just bad luck on timing.
I agree. He is not cut out for this. Good analogy for this is BB. Except times 4...
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bear2be2
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 10:28a, 9/26/23
FLBear5630 said:
So, what happened with Aranda. He seemed to be on an upward trajectory, than the bottom fell out.

So, what happened? Some say it was all Rhules recruits, which may play in to this situation.

I want to float another thought, no proof just gut feeling.

How is Aranda thought of in Texas recruiting? Did the Briles, Maguire and the Roberts situations hurt his credibility at Tx HSs? I had an opportunity to see what happens at a P5 when the HS pipelines are shut off. Usually, signs are that another school of similar stature starts to climb. So, did BU lose the ear of the HS coaches?

Michigan turned on RR because they didn't like him cutting off recruits and Mich St was the benefactor. Hoke and Harbaugh, "UM men", came in and the pipeline opened...Back to top 5. Is BU experiencing a similar effect, naturally at a lower level, to those situations I mentioned above? Is Aranda basically not going to pull it out because he is not getting access to the recruits Briles and Rhule did? Let's face it HS coaches play a big role in college recruiting. Just a thought.
I talk to a lot of high school football coaches, and I don't get the impression that Aranda is poorly thought of. In fact, I'd say he's considered one of the more trustworthy coaches in Texas. But ultimately guys want to go where they can win big, and we're not that place right now.

Last year's results killed our recruiting momentum. And the start of this season is having a compounding effect.
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TWD 1974
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In reply to chriscbear • 11:23a, 9/26/23
chriscbear said:
Most of Briles players were not bad dudes or citizens.
My concern has been growing over a consistent theme on this board, that basically implies we can work around the NIL by recruiting the better student athletes. I fear that we do not fully understand the watershed moment that has come to major college football. If you read the history of college football, you will note that many of the dominant football powers of the early 20th century failed to see the implications of recruiting and full scholarships, etc. to all of their players. Their assumption that a "Yale" education was enough of an incentive to get good players should have been the right assumption...except that it wasn't. The majority of the recruits we want may love the school, program, but when faced with the prospect of $10-20k more elsewhere, we are going to lose the recruiting battle time and again. Even the legacies, faced with Baylor's not bending to the NIL reality, will be forced to question our long-term commitment to winning college football. I hate the NIL as much as anyone but don't see it going away.
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GoodOleBaylorLine
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11:28a, 9/26/23
Not disagreeing with you in general, but I think what history shows is many of those programs understood the implications and wanted no part of it. For example, UChicago knew exactly what it took to compete in the B10 (they had for years) and didn't think it suited their educational mission anymore.

Similar soul searching probably coming up.
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Dia del DougO
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11:35a, 9/26/23
Trajectory of a program is a big deal. Most programs that aren't blue bloods have off years .But you expect the better coached programs to have some consistency toward building and rebuilding without massive drop-offs and continuing downward trends.

Kids aren't dumb. Talk is talk, results speak more loudly. Players want a chance to win and keep winning. Baylor must get some positive momentum really soon or it's going to get uglier.
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Southtxbear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:56p, 9/26/23
FLBear5630 said:
So, what happened with Aranda. He seemed to be on an upward trajectory, than the bottom fell out.

So, what happened? Some say it was all Rhules recruits, which may play in to this situation.

I want to float another thought, no proof just gut feeling.

How is Aranda thought of in Texas recruiting? Did the Briles, Maguire and the Roberts situations hurt his credibility at Tx HSs? I had an opportunity to see what happens at a P5 when the HS pipelines are shut off. Usually, signs are that another school of similar stature starts to climb. So, did BU lose the ear of the HS coaches?

Michigan turned on RR because they didn't like him cutting off recruits and Mich St was the benefactor. Hoke and Harbaugh, "UM men", came in and the pipeline opened...Back to top 5. Is BU experiencing a similar effect, naturally at a lower level, to those situations I mentioned above? Is Aranda basically not going to pull it out because he is not getting access to the recruits Briles and Rhule did? Let's face it HS coaches play a big role in college recruiting. Just a thought.
Our recruiting ranking isn't much different than wife Briles or Rhule. Since that is the case, we are recruiting people that do not fit our system, or the coaching is poor.
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Southtxbear
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In reply to chriscbear • 12:59p, 9/26/23
chriscbear said:
Most of Briles players were not bad dudes or citizens.
They are the exact same type of football players as everyone else has. People act like Art brought in known murderers and rapists.
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Johnny Bear
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In reply to Southtxbear • 1:24p, 9/26/23
Ghostrider said:
chriscbear said:
Most of Briles players were not bad dudes or citizens.
They are the exact same type of football players as everyone else has. People act like Art brought in known murderers and rapists.

Exactly. Sure, he had a few problem players during his tenure (what winning HC at any P5 school for an extended time period hasn't), but it was always BS that he was fielding teams loaded with rapists and criminals. Had that actually been the case, there would've been a lot more than a grand total of one conviction.
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to Southtxbear • 1:32p, 9/26/23
Ghostrider said:
chriscbear said:
Most of Briles players were not bad dudes or citizens.
They are the exact same type of football players as everyone else has. People act like Art brought in known murderers and rapists.

Oh not just that.

People out there act like Art was specifically encouraging them to rape women.

As if he was directing criminal actively and then covering it up.

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Southtxbear
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In reply to Johnny Bear • 2:10p, 9/26/23
Johnny Bear said:
Ghostrider said:
chriscbear said:
Most of Briles players were not bad dudes or citizens.
They are the exact same type of football players as everyone else has. People act like Art brought in known murderers and rapists.

Exactly. Sure, he had a few problem players during his tenure (what winning HC at any P5 school for an extended time period hasn't), but it was always BS that he was fielding teams loaded with rapists and criminals. Had that actually been the case, there would've been a lot more than a grand total of one conviction.
When I see BS, I think Blake Shapen.
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Daveisabovereproach
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2:21p, 9/26/23
NIL is a problem, but it's being used as a cope right now. Bill Snyder won big 12 championships and had Kansas State playing at a pretty consistently high level with talent that was (on paper) less than what Baylor has right now. If you can't get the upper tier 4 and 5 star recruits, you have to make up for it with scheme, discipline, and tenacity. We have none of those things….. the wide zone is a perfectly sound scheme, but it is not the niche that Aranda thinks it is.
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bear2be2
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In reply to Daveisabovereproach • 2:24p, 9/26/23
No Quarterback said:
NIL is a problem, but it's being used as a cope right now. Bill Snyder won big 12 championships and had Kansas State playing at a pretty consistently high level with talent that was (on paper) less than what Baylor has right now. If you can't get the upper tier 4 and 5 star recruits, you have to make up for it with scheme, discipline, and tenacity. We have none of those things….. the wide zone is a perfectly sound scheme, but it is not the niche that Aranda thinks it is.
100 percent. We're not losing because of NIL. We're losing because we're recruiting to an incoherent system on both sides of the ball and can't develop playmakers.

We have no discernible identity, and our roster is an island of misfit toys.

Art Briles and Matt Rhule won with exactly the caliber of players we've been filling our roster with the last four years. The difference is those guys knew exactly what types of players they were looking for and how to maximize their talent in their respective systems.
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JP1037
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2:51p, 9/26/23
Things have changed. NIL is a big problem for us. Its a scam to say its for advertising. That is a lie for all but a handful of players. Its colleges paying players through back channels way more than they ever did under the table. Its an ego spend for big money donors, not a marketing play.

We have 3 choices that I see (I am sure there are more)
1) play ball to the best of our ability
2) work on making a league that has limits on NIL to be what it was legally intended to be
3) Hope the government steps in to put some controls on this and make it what it was intended to be.


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Big guy
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3:19p, 9/26/23
Here's the league I'll suggest for Choice # 2, above:

Baylor
Sam Houston
Tarleton St.
Southwestern
Mary Hardin Baylor
Sul Ross
Stephen F. Austin
Trinity

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Southtxbear
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3:20p, 9/26/23
Are we the only school giving walk-on's NIL money?
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DallasBear9902
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3:57p, 9/26/23
Institutionally, Baylor was simply not ready for the B12 and the era of national college football (as opposed to regional). It took wandering in the wilderness for 15 years to finally figure it out and absolute lightning in a bottle in the form of RG3.

Baylor was caught flat footed on NIL and the transfer portal. Let us hope we figure it out sooner than 15 years.
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boykin_spaniel
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4:26p, 9/26/23
Agree with above sentiment about recruiting rankings. Aranda is right where Briles and Rhule were. To me this shows a lack of development or properly identifying talent. Recruiting services are frequently wrong. I also agree with the misfit toys analysis. We have some great athletes but they appear not a good fit for our system or have not received very good coaching.

I don't think Aranda has been shut off from the Texas high school scene. Armani Winfield was a big 4* steal from the horns. Richard Reese is a classic Briles/Rhule diamond in the rough.

I would like to see some young blood brought onto this staff that is high energy and willing to be road warrior recruiters. Build relationships in and outside of the state. Rhule was able to get some solid talent from outside Texas while being a favorite of the Texas High School Football Coaches Association. Walk and chew gum!
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TWD 1974
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In reply to GoodOleBaylorLine • 4:37p, 9/26/23
GoodOleBaylorLine said:
Not disagreeing with you in general, but I think what history shows is many of those programs understood the implications and wanted no part of it. For example, UChicago knew exactly what it took to compete in the B10 (they had for years) and didn't think it suited their educational mission anymore.

Similar soul searching probably coming up.
University of Chicago had the luxury of the backing of JD Rockefeller. They also did not have a couple $100mm in debt for new Football and now Basketball Stadiums. I would imagine it is of prime importance for Baylor Trustees and administrators that we maintain the Big12 revenue stream. How long can we maintain that if we fall to the recruiting levels of the late 60s or 90s?
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