CDA: Bowl Eligible, what we all hoped but also feared

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TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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6:30p, 11/18/24
We're now living the scenario all of us "doubting Thomases" thought could or would happen - CDA gets us to a bowl game and he's official for another year.

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter if he's actually a great coach or not. And while we've improved, I'm quite honestly still not sold. For 5 years he couldn't develop players, couldn't do pressure game time calls, couldn't pick a qb or develop an offensive or defensive identity, and couldn't make use of NIL. He's been mid-to-bad for so long, I just can't accept that he's all of the sudden a better head-coach.

Also, I am officially loving the wins, but this season feels like a fluke or happy accident, because Sawyer is that good and CDA didn't know it. If CDA wasn't on the hot-seat, I'm not sure Sawyer plays at all this season. CDA actually paid another quarterback BIG money to come to BU to start, while having a stud sit on the bench. I'd say that's par for the course with CDA. Also, I know it's not great to call it out, but our level of competition isn't what it once was, which has definitely helped. But I'd say that goes for the other conferences as well by and large.

Also, for the Kool-Aid drinkers around here, the primary argument for the big change is that CDA has learned to use NIL, so is that what you all really think made the difference this season? I mean NIL couldn't have hurt, other than at QB. What are the structural changes or leadership changes that are giving you strong hopes?

For the record, I know my opinion (and yours) doesn't matter, and I'm very cool with that. This board is just a place to hear from others who agree or disagree. I'd love to hear well thought out reasons for the high hopes that have been floating around.

Last, I'm not a hater, I just tend to think CDA leadership is going to lead us to years of mediocrity. I'd love to be wrong because I really like the guy. Help me to put on some rose-colored glasses because I want to believe.

(Last Last, I'm writing this knowing full well that we could win out. That won't change my mind until I see success repeated YoY, but winning out would be a great start to causing me to doubt my doubting ways.)



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IowaBear
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6:39p, 11/18/24
I'm fine with him getting another year. But let's be honest. Spavs offense is what's winning us these games. If he gets another job I'll immediately be concerned. Dave's defense is utter garbage that's undeniable. That HAS to change going forward. I'm not sure if it's Dave's scheme or what but this off seasons agenda has to be bringing in better talent in the secondary. Guys like Bobby, Lemear, Jenkins need recruited over.
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BUATX2000
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6:43p, 11/18/24
I think we are all struggling to understand where programs like Baylor fit in this new clown world of college football. 18 year old kids getting paid millions of dollars with almost no binding contracts associated with the money is not a sustainable model. It's certainly not a model a school like Baylor can pursue.

It's hard to know where this all winds up. The kind of coach we need at the head of our program needs to nail 85% of their NIL budget and develop 85% of their freshman recruits (who are still getting paid, just not as much)

Dave seems to be doing that this year. If he can win out that's a 9 win season and that's not a fluke.

Frankly, the money we would spend on his buy out will be better put to use paying quality players to come provide support in the secondary. Can't waste money on buyouts anymore.
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Married A Horn
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In reply to TinFoilHatPreacherBear • 6:54p, 11/18/24
TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:
We're now living the scenario all of us "doubting Thomases" thought could or would happen - CDA gets us to a bowl game and he's official for another year.

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter if he's actually a great coach or not. And while we've improved, I'm quite honestly still not sold. For 5 years he couldn't develop players, couldn't do pressure game time calls, couldn't pick a qb or develop an offensive or defensive identity, and couldn't make use of NIL. He's been mid-to-bad for so long, I just can't accept that he's all of the sudden a better head-coach.

Also, I am officially loving the wins, but this season feels like a fluke or happy accident, because Sawyer is that good and CDA didn't know it. If CDA wasn't on the hot-seat, I'm not sure Sawyer plays at all this season. CDA actually paid another quarterback BIG money to come to BU to start, while having a stud sit on the bench. I'd say that's par for the course with CDA. Also, I know it's not great to call it out, but our level of competition isn't what it once was, which has definitely helped. But I'd say that goes for the other conferences as well by and large.

Also, for the Kool-Aid drinkers around here, the primary argument for the big change is that CDA has learned to use NIL, so is that what you all really think made the difference this season? I mean NIL couldn't have hurt, other than at QB. What are the structural changes or leadership changes that are giving you strong hopes?

For the record, I know my opinion (and yours) doesn't matter, and I'm very cool with that. This board is just a place to hear from others who agree or disagree. I'd love to hear well thought out reasons for the high hopes that have been floating around.

Last, I'm not a hater, I just tend to think CDA leadership is going to lead us to years of mediocrity. I'd love to be wrong because I really like the guy. Help me to put on some rose-colored glasses because I want to believe.

(Last Last, I'm writing this knowing full well that we could win out. That won't change my mind until I see success repeated YoY, but winning out would be a great start to causing me to doubt my doubting ways.)





The factor I believe you miss is that he is a new coach and, by definition, will pick up new tid-bits of experience each year. Can he identify and fix his weaknesses? This year leans a little more towards yes.

We probably arent even having this conversation if Colorado doesnt happen...
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jikespingleton
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In reply to TinFoilHatPreacherBear • 7:28p, 11/18/24
TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:
For 5 years he couldn't develop players, couldn't do pressure game time calls, couldn't pick a qb or develop an offensive or defensive identity, and couldn't make use of NIL. He's been mid-to-bad for so long, I just can't accept that he's all of the sudden a better head-coach.

Also, I am officially loving the wins, but this season feels like a fluke or happy accident, because Sawyer is that good and CDA didn't know it. If CDA wasn't on the hot-seat, I'm not sure Sawyer plays at all this season. CDA actually paid another quarterback BIG money to come to BU to start, while having a stud sit on the bench. I'd say that's par for the course with CDA. Also, I know it's not great to call it out, but our level of competition isn't what it once was, which has definitely helped. But I'd say that goes for the other conferences as well by and large.
You have every right to be happy for the wins, but still concerned with who is leading the team.

This is year 5 and our season is still littered with bad coaching decisions.

If Spav gets poached, I have zero confidence that CDA will find the right replacement on the first hire. I hope I'm wrong in that scenario.
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EvilTroyAndAbed
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7:57p, 11/18/24
I didn't fear anything. I'm pumped.
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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In reply to Married A Horn • 8:01p, 11/18/24
Married A Horn said:


The factor I believe you miss is that he is a new coach and, by definition, will pick up new tid-bits of experience each year. Can he identify and fix his weaknesses? This year leans a little more towards yes.

We probably arent even having this conversation if Colorado doesnt happen...
I get what you're saying, and maybe that is true. but I guess I don't think I missed that factor. I just don't really see that CDA has picked up much applicable head coaching expertise. In fact, he demoted himself (in a way) to be the acting DC. Not saying he's not learning, just hadn't seen it in prior seasons, and it's not obvious to me now. I see it as if Spav is gone, I have little confidence in CDA. Heck, Spav without Sawyer couldn't win games. So jury is still out.

Having said that, all head coaches rely on their OCs and DCs during the game, so it's a hard argument for me to make. Guess my main take is I'm just not onboard the CDA happy train. Don't think he has the needed head coaching skills.

Of course, as your last sentence implies, winning is all that matters, and CDA may very well finish strong.
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Yogi
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8:05p, 11/18/24
Here's the deal:

1. He was retained; not extended.

2. He led the team to bowl qualification and a 4 win conference winning streak with 2 of those being in Lubbock and Morgantown.

3. He's got a fantastic recruiting class hanging on.

4. There is going to be a huge rush on coaches in the market at the end of the season, and I am not sure what will be available will be an improvement on what we have.

5. We still owe a tremendous buy out that could be used on building and retaining players on the team.

Keeping Aranda is a no brainer. You don't fire a coach who has players still playing for him and headed in the right direction.

Baylor's best bet is to play the cards it has right now.

"Smarter than the Average Bear."
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Daveisabovereproach
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8:08p, 11/18/24
The new coach learning on the job excuse for Dave is not valid anymore. What you see is pretty much what you get with his demeanor and coaching ability. Not only was he hired to be a defensive guru, not only did he fire a competent defensive coordinator and replace him with a glorified special teams coach that failed, he has taken over playcalling of the defense, and it isn't good. So I give him credit for the four game win streak, but none of this means that the indicators of poor coaching under his tenure like the several losses in close games and against inferior talent, didn't happen
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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In reply to Yogi • 8:11p, 11/18/24
Yogi said:
Here's the deal:

1. He was retained; not extended.

2. He led the team to bowl qualification and a 4 win conference winning streak with 2 of those being in Lubbock and Morgantown.

3. He's got a fantastic recruiting class hanging on.

4. There is going to be a huge rush on coaches in the market at the end of the season, and I am not sure what will be available will be an improvement on what we have.

5. We still owe a tremendous buy out that could be used on building and retaining players on the team.

Keeping Aranda is a no brainer. You don't fire a coach who has players still playing for him and headed in the right direction.

Baylor's best bet is to play the cards it has right now.

Really succinct and well put.
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DallasBear9902
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8:12p, 11/18/24
OP user name checks out.

He's five years into being a head coach. He's learning like any human would. He's gotten better. While the offense is clearly turning into top tier, the defense has also made strides this season and is coming up with stops. That's clearly on CDA.

Recruiting is on the upswing. The offensive line only has one senior. DL will need to be rebuilt. Now we're going to find out if we have the money to keep guys like Robertson, Cameron and maybe the running backs.

Overall, he's done enough to get to run it back with some real green shoots for next year. And, not for nothing, a new coach could be worse.
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Married A Horn
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In reply to Yogi • 8:13p, 11/18/24
Yogi said:
Here's the deal:

1. He was retained; not extended.

2. He led the team to bowl qualification and a 4 win conference winning streak with 2 of those being in Lubbock and Morgantown.

3. He's got a fantastic recruiting class hanging on.

4. There is going to be a huge rush on coaches in the market at the end of the season, and I am not sure what will be available will be an improvement on what we have.

5. We still owe a tremendous buy out that could be used on building and retaining players on the team.

Keeping Aranda is a no brainer. You don't fire a coach who has players still playing for him and headed in the right direction.

Baylor's best bet is to play the cards it has right now.



Good stuff. What are your thoughts if we lose Spavital to some head coaching job or whatever?
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BUATX2000
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In reply to TinFoilHatPreacherBear • 8:15p, 11/18/24
TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:
Yogi said:
Here's the deal:

1. He was retained; not extended.

2. He led the team to bowl qualification and a 4 win conference winning streak with 2 of those being in Lubbock and Morgantown.

3. He's got a fantastic recruiting class hanging on.

4. There is going to be a huge rush on coaches in the market at the end of the season, and I am not sure what will be available will be an improvement on what we have.

5. We still owe a tremendous buy out that could be used on building and retaining players on the team.

Keeping Aranda is a no brainer. You don't fire a coach who has players still playing for him and headed in the right direction.

Baylor's best bet is to play the cards it has right now.

Really succinct and well put.
in the age of NIL, wasting money on buyouts it really stupid. Unless the guy is a complete failure and is actively tanking the program, it's much better to deploy limited resources toward more talented players. At this point his buyout is $10mm. Imagine how good we would be with the infusion of $10mm in NIL talent.
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Married A Horn
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In reply to DallasBear9902 • 8:17p, 11/18/24
DallasBear9902 said:
OP user name checks out.

He's five years into being a head coach. He's learning like any human would. He's gotten better. While the offense is clearly turning into top tier, the defense has also made strides this season and is coming up with stops. That's clearly on CDA.

Recruiting is on the upswing. The offensive line only has one senior. DL will need to be rebuilt. Now we're going to find out if we have the money to keep guys like Robertson, Cameron and maybe the running backs.

Overall, he's done enough to get to run it back with some real green shoots for next year. And, not for nothing, a new coach could be worse.


If Spavital stays, no way Robertson leaves. If Spavital leaves - I still think he is very likely to stay.
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Quinton
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In reply to TinFoilHatPreacherBear • 8:32p, 11/18/24
It's a legit question. I'll be in support if he wins out in the regular season and fields a competitive bowl game. These last two games are critical to maintain momentum and get full fan base buy in. Losing this weekend would remove a lot of the goodwill.
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EvilTroyAndAbed
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In reply to Married A Horn • 8:48p, 11/18/24
Married A Horn said:
Yogi said:
Here's the deal:

1. He was retained; not extended.

2. He led the team to bowl qualification and a 4 win conference winning streak with 2 of those being in Lubbock and Morgantown.

3. He's got a fantastic recruiting class hanging on.

4. There is going to be a huge rush on coaches in the market at the end of the season, and I am not sure what will be available will be an improvement on what we have.

5. We still owe a tremendous buy out that could be used on building and retaining players on the team.

Keeping Aranda is a no brainer. You don't fire a coach who has players still playing for him and headed in the right direction.

Baylor's best bet is to play the cards it has right now.



Good stuff. What are your thoughts if we lose Spavital to some head coaching job or whatever?


Spavital is a failure as a head coach. He's not getting another gig until he strings a lot of incredible seasons together.
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BUATX2000
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8:51p, 11/18/24
If he takes a 7 game win streak into the offseason, returns most of his eligible starters and key staff, adds a few key portal pieces and retains what looks to be a very solid class, I think we can objectively say Baylor football is on the right trajectory.
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Married A Horn
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In reply to EvilTroyAndAbed • 8:51p, 11/18/24
EvilTroyAndAbed said:
Married A Horn said:
Yogi said:
Here's the deal:

1. He was retained; not extended.

2. He led the team to bowl qualification and a 4 win conference winning streak with 2 of those being in Lubbock and Morgantown.

3. He's got a fantastic recruiting class hanging on.

4. There is going to be a huge rush on coaches in the market at the end of the season, and I am not sure what will be available will be an improvement on what we have.

5. We still owe a tremendous buy out that could be used on building and retaining players on the team.

Keeping Aranda is a no brainer. You don't fire a coach who has players still playing for him and headed in the right direction.

Baylor's best bet is to play the cards it has right now.



Good stuff. What are your thoughts if we lose Spavital to some head coaching job or whatever?


Spavital is a failure as a head coach. He's not getting another gig until he strings a lot of incredible seasons together.


That provides a little comfort I guess.
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Married A Horn
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In reply to BUATX2000 • 8:52p, 11/18/24
BUATX2000 said:
If he takes a 7 game win streak into the offseason, returns most of his eligible starters and key staff, adds a few key portal pieces and retains what looks to be a very solid class, I think we can objectively say Baylor football is on the right trajectory.


Yes. Agree. And what will your expectations be for 2025?
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LagunaBear
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9:11p, 11/18/24
I'm glad to have Aranda. He's a great coach. Yes, he had to learn some things, as it is his first major head coaching job, but he's doing just fine.

IMO, the main improvement is that he finally embraced the portal than (most importantly) Baylor learned to play the NIL game.
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Yogi
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In reply to Married A Horn • 9:14p, 11/18/24
Married A Horn said:
Yogi said:
Here's the deal:

1. He was retained; not extended.

2. He led the team to bowl qualification and a 4 win conference winning streak with 2 of those being in Lubbock and Morgantown.

3. He's got a fantastic recruiting class hanging on.

4. There is going to be a huge rush on coaches in the market at the end of the season, and I am not sure what will be available will be an improvement on what we have.

5. We still owe a tremendous buy out that could be used on building and retaining players on the team.

Keeping Aranda is a no brainer. You don't fire a coach who has players still playing for him and headed in the right direction.

Baylor's best bet is to play the cards it has right now.



Good stuff. What are your thoughts if we lose Spavital to some head coaching job or whatever?


No thoughts. Just fear.

If Spav goes, we hire someone who runs a similar system. The spread benefits our personnel and compensates for weaknesses on the O-Line.
"Smarter than the Average Bear."
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RightRevBear
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9:23p, 11/18/24
Aranda has earned being retained. I hope we win out, and that CDA turns out to be the best coach in Baylor history. With that said I have some of the same concerns as the OP. For those who are saying he is a new coach, so he is learning. He is in his fifth season as HC. The training wheels should come off. It is not like he hasn't been preparing to be a HC through his career. I have been in my role for six years. If I screwed up for half the year last year, I would be gone. The excuse of him being new is moot at this point. Until this turn around, he drove a really good program into the ground.

Also, those who say we should invest the buyout money into NIL. It is not an either or situation. Again, I think he has earned next year to prove himself. It is not like the donor who is willing to pony up the buyout money would also be willing to put 10 mil into NIL. If Baylor pays it without a donor, they definitely can't put it into NIL.

I think this comes to expectations. My expectations are for us to routinely compete for the conference championships. Good years we will make it to the playoffs. Bowl eligibility should be a given, not something we hope to get. I don't know if Aranda is that guy. I hope he is, but the last three seasons have made me question.
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BUATX2000
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In reply to Married A Horn • 9:23p, 11/18/24
Married A Horn said:
BUATX2000 said:
If he takes a 7 game win streak into the offseason, returns most of his eligible starters and key staff, adds a few key portal pieces and retains what looks to be a very solid class, I think we can objectively say Baylor football is on the right trajectory.


Yes. Agree. And what will your expectations be for 2025?
if all of those things happen, anything short of a big12 title run next year will be a disappointment. I'm not saying they need to make the championship game, but they had better be in the conversation in November.

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BluesBear
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In reply to IowaBear • 9:44p, 11/18/24
IowaBear said:
I'm fine with him getting another year. But let's be honest. Spavs offense is what's winning us these games. If he gets another job I'll immediately be concerned. Dave's defense is utter garbage that's undeniable. That HAS to change going forward. I'm not sure if it's Dave's scheme or what but this off seasons agenda has to be bringing in better talent in the secondary. Guys like Bobby, Lemear, Jenkins need recruited over.
"fine with him getting another year"? Mack needs to start negotiations NOW to lock Dave down for another 10 years!!!
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boognish_bear
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10:00p, 11/18/24
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RightRevBear
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In reply to BluesBear • 10:10p, 11/18/24
BluesBear said:
IowaBear said:
I'm fine with him getting another year. But let's be honest. Spavs offense is what's winning us these games. If he gets another job I'll immediately be concerned. Dave's defense is utter garbage that's undeniable. That HAS to change going forward. I'm not sure if it's Dave's scheme or what but this off seasons agenda has to be bringing in better talent in the secondary. Guys like Bobby, Lemear, Jenkins need recruited over.
"fine with him getting another year"? Mack needs to start negotiations NOW to lock Dave down for another 10 years!!!


I hope this is a joke based off the seven seasons extension. If not, does a four game winning streak wipeout the past 2.5 seasons?
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BigGameBaylorBear
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10:44p, 11/18/24
Let me get this straight, when the team sucks, it's Dave's fault. When the team is good, Dave has nothing to do with it?

You people aren't Baylor fans. We have something special going on in Waco right now but your hatred for Dave has blinded you, either that or you simply dont know ball
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Killing Floor
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10:50p, 11/18/24
My dumb take

I do not think Aranda will get this team to a minimally acceptable win rate of 10 per year.

But I also recognize at this point we have won 2 more games than last year and still have 2 remaining. So there's no doubt to me the team is improved.

I've always been consistent in these 2 opinions, I don't trust him and if the team is improving and at least getting to play postseason he's doing his job.

I'd never root for him to fail because that's rooting against the team. Today things are looking up. Sic'em.
Let’s Go!
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Jorkel
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In reply to IowaBear • 7:42a
IowaBear said:
I'm fine with him getting another year. But let's be honest. Spavs offense is what's winning us these games. If he gets another job I'll immediately be concerned. Dave's defense is utter garbage that's undeniable. That HAS to change going forward. I'm not sure if it's Dave's scheme or what but this off seasons agenda has to be bringing in better talent in the secondary. Guys like Bobby, Lemear, Jenkins need recruited over.


Massive 180 for you. Proud of you
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DallasBear9902
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In reply to Killing Floor • 8:05a
Killing Floor said:
My dumb take

I do not think Aranda will get this team to a minimally acceptable win rate of 10 per year.

But I also recognize at this point we have won 2 more games than last year and still have 2 remaining. So there's no doubt to me the team is improved.

I've always been consistent in these 2 opinions, I don't trust him and if the team is improving and at least getting to play postseason he's doing his job.

I'd never root for him to fail because that's rooting against the team. Today things are looking up. Sic'em.


Minimally acceptable win rate of 10 per year!?!?!? Come on, let's just think about that for a second.

Over a 12-game schedule that's a win rate of .83333

Even if you spread that across 13 games that's still a win rate of .769.

The number 1 highest winning percentage in CFB history is a Michigan at .734.

Nick Saban's career winning percentage was .802.

So, your minimum acceptable win rate for Coach Dave Aranda at Baylor would require him to be better than or in the ballpark of the single greatest coach in College Football history. I humbly suggest recalibrating your standards.

8.5-3.5 with a conference championship a decade and being in the running for two more in that time period should earn a Baylor football coach tenure.
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dstaylor57
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8:32a
Aranda made the moves with coaching staff and enough portal help to get us to 6 wins. Unfortunately his impact on becoming DC has been marginal at best. When your defense gives up 30+ a game you usually have a losing season. Had it not been for the offensive development at OL, RB, QB and WR Aranda would be out the door. He needs to hire a good DC and plug a lot of holes in the defense via the portal to be successful going forward.
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ccgutierrez
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8:41a
I was in the fire Aranda camp earlier this year but he's made me eat my words and I'm happy with that. Here's the scenario I see with Aranda. He's got potentially at least two years left before any changes would be made. Assuming he wins at least 6-8 wins next year, which I think he should than he's definitely coming back in 2026. That season would then be the one where we decide if we've reached a ceiling or not as program and a change is needed. And heck if next season he up and wins 10 games, he's not going anywhere for a long time.

I think the bigger thing like other posters have said is we have to realize what we are in college football now. We will probably never sniff a national title anymore. However I think our place if college football is to be a consistent 8-10 win program that challenges for conference titles a couple times a decade. If Aranda has a good season this year and next I don't see how finding a new coach would get us anymore success.
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OurOurs
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In reply to DallasBear9902 • 8:49a
DallasBear9902 said:
Killing Floor said:
My dumb take

I do not think Aranda will get this team to a minimally acceptable win rate of 10 per year.


Minimally acceptable win rate of 10 per year!?!?!? Come on, let's just think about that for a second.


I appreciate you furnishing the numbers to show how crazy that opinion is. As for me, I had to set down my breakfast for a second as I couldn't stop myself from laughing. This comment, and Dave's "ugly baby" have given me some good chuckles over the last 24 hours. Thanks for the entertainment, fellas!
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boognish_bear
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8:53a
What some are describing kind of sounds about like Mike Gundy's success at Oklahoma State (minus this year) which I think would be a good bar for Aranda to reach.

Just would like to see some more conference championships than what Gundy has produced to go along with the wins.
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Married A Horn
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In reply to ccgutierrez • 8:55a
ccgutierrez said:
I was in the fire Aranda camp earlier this year but he's made me eat my words and I'm happy with that. Here's the scenario I see with Aranda. He's got potentially at least two years left before any changes would be made. Assuming he wins at least 6-8 wins next year, which I think he should than he's definitely coming back in 2026. That season would then be the one where we decide if we've reached a ceiling or not as program and a change is needed. And heck if next season he up and wins 10 games, he's not going anywhere for a long time.

I think the bigger thing like other posters have said is we have to realize what we are in college football now. We will probably never sniff a national title anymore. However I think our place if college football is to be a consistent 8-10 win program that challenges for conference titles a couple times a decade. If Aranda has a good season this year and next I don't see how finding a new coach would get us anymore success.


I refuse to accept this. I want at least 1 National Title in my lifetime. Basketball and CSD gave us one there. Football can too.

I dont expect National Titles. I dont expect CFP all the time. But I would enjoy and expect our program to be in the CFP discussion each November (conference champs contender). Its not like our conference is stuffed with perennial National Champions.
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