1. CFP
2. Alamo
3. Pop-tarts
4. Texas
5. Liberty
6. Rate
7. Armed Forces
8. First responder
With Independence as a possible wild card 9th.
BUT….any former PAC12 school is eligible for any former Pac12 bowl slot, picked in the following order:
1. Alamo
2. Holiday
3. Las Vegas
4. Sun
5. LA
6. Independence
However, of the 12 former PAC-12 schools:
Utah, Arizona, UCLA, Stanford and OreSt are not bowl eligible.
Oregon is a lock for the CFP.
ArizSt may make the CFP.
Washington, USC and Cal all finished 6-6.
Leaving only Colorado (9-3) and WashSt (8-4, but on a 3 game losing streak) as decent Pac12 bowl appointments, unless IowaSt wins the Big12. And one of those three could end up in the Alamo bowl against another Big12 opponent.
So if IowaSt makes the CFP, and Colorado and ArizSt take PAC12 slots, then Alamo/Pop-Tart/Texas/Liberty choose between BYU, BU, Tech, TCU and KSt (all 8-4 and above).
If ArizSt wins and makes the CFP, IowaSt falls to Alamo, BYU likely to Pop-Tart, then Texas chooses between BU, Tech, TCU and KSt. We have scoreboard on Tech/TCU and finished ahead of KSt, but who knows what matchup the bowl wants.
I think it would take a major screw job for us to fall below Liberty to the Cure bowl, but who knows. I am still convinced that Mack took the Armed Forces Bowl 2 years ago thinking he could save on travel and wouldn't have to house and feed the team after Christmas, and it blew up in his face.