Kansas state breakdown

10,336 Views | 106 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by canoso
WestUBears88
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Aliceinbubbleland said:

Recruited and coached by Matt Rhule. It stayed with them. Dave came in and we have seen 6 seasons of his famous defensive talent.


Exceptionally good assessment
Porteroso
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bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.
bear2be2
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Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.

Not really. That's a very Reese Bobby outlook on the situation, frankly. And he was high when he said that.

It's a perfectly rational position to hold that the program reset that would come with a coaching change is a less desirable outcome than Aranda finding a way to meet expectations this year and to continue to build on strengths/shore up weaknesses in future seasons.

One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.
Youre a clown
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Yep, can't discount that awesome culture. That's what it's all about
Realitybites
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bear2be2 said:


One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.


The culture is what your W-L record says it is.
Youre a clown
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Realitybites said:

bear2be2 said:


One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.


The culture is what your W-L record says it is.


Exactly. A team whose coaches wear shirts that says "we pay players" doesn't need to be bragging about their culture, they need to be bragging about their record
Realitybites
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Youre a clown said:

Realitybites said:

bear2be2 said:


One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.


The culture is what your W-L record says it is.


Exactly. A team whose coaches wear shirts that says "we pay players" doesn't need to be bragging about their culture, they need to be bragging about their record


There are still some people holding on to the illusion that this is in any way an amateur sport.

It isn't. It's a professional sport without a salary cap and unlimited free agency.

Results are measured in exactly the same way they are for the Dallas Cowboys or Houston Texans.

Graduation rates and grades are irrelevant. It just so happens that Baylor University owns and operates this team instead of Jerry Jones or Cal McNair.
bear2be2
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Realitybites said:

bear2be2 said:


One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.


The culture is what your W-L record says it is.

I firmly believe that the teams that can keep guys in their program -- something Dave has done as well as or better than anyone in the Big 12 -- will ultimately be the most consistently successful programs over time.

And with the improvement we've made in our high school recruiting the last two or three cycles, I think it's worth it to test that theory, barring a meltdown that forces a change at the head coaching position.

For all the bellyaching about our program, that culture everyone is mocking has raised our program floor pretty considerably since we got with the program on the NIL front. My hope is that our improved recruiting combined with success with player retention will ultimately bring get our ceiling more in line with everyone's expectations.

It's a gamble, but so is starting over. And wanting to avoid a coaching change in an era where that precipitates a complete program reset -- and a likely two-year rebuilding period -- is a perfectly valid position whether some of you wish to acknowledge it or not.
Realitybites
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bear2be2 said:

I firmly believe that the teams that can keep guys in their program -- something Dave has done as well as or better than anyone in the Big 12 -- will ultimately be the most consistently successful programs over time.


Keeping and recruiting players that produce a .500 result year after year is not going to result in a consistently successful program. It will result in a consistently mediocre one.
bear2be2
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Realitybites said:

bear2be2 said:

I firmly believe that the teams that can keep guys in their program -- something Dave has done as well as or better than anyone in the Big 12 -- will ultimately be the most consistently successful programs over time.


Keeping and recruiting players that produce a .500 result year after year is not going to result in a consistently successful program. It will result in a consistently mediocre one.

I don't think some of you realize how much our recruiting dipped at the start of the NIL era -- or how much better it has been the last two-plus years.

It takes time for that improvement to show in wins and losses because you don't see the fruits of that labor until those guys are redshirt sophomores, juniors and seniors.

We've been retaining mediocre players because that's all we could get to campus for a two- or three-year period. We're just now starting to recover from some of the recruiting gaps we had in 2022 and 2023 -- especially on defense.

If we keep recruiting the way we have the last two cycles, especially, the talent level in our program will rise considerably. And when the talent we're keeping is better, our teams will be, too.

Dave has the task of earning enough trust to stay in his seat until these guys we're bringing in are ready to contribute. I get that. A loss in a game like today's would likely cause what little goodwill he has left to evaporate. But if he can meet reasonable expectations this year and next, our records should improve because we're bringing in better players. They're just freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophomores right now.
bear2be2
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Disregard my other posts in this thread.

It's over. Fire these clowns and start over.
hodedofome
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hodedofome said:

We're at home against a decent team. No need to overthink this. We lose.


It's the start of the 4th quarter and this looks like sound thinking.
bear2be2
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I love the fight Aranda's teams play with. If we could ever fix the scheme and preparation parts of the equation, we could be dangerous.

Unfortunately, there's a lot of evidence now that suggests that's unlikely to happen.

But I'm going to enjoy the hell out of this win.
hodedofome
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My kids got to pour cold water on me for being wrong. At least it's dang hot outside.
Guitarbiscuit
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bear2be2 said:

Disregard my other posts in this thread.

It's over. Fire these clowns and start over.


I too thought it was over. Glad they won.

But our Defense needs to get a lot better, and I just don't think they have the talent to get better. This is another situation where I hope I'm wrong.
bear2be2
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Guitarbiscuit said:

bear2be2 said:

Disregard my other posts in this thread.

It's over. Fire these clowns and start over.


I too thought it was over. Glad they won.

But our Defense needs to get a lot better, and I just don't think they have the talent to get better. This is another situation where I hope I'm wrong.

The only way I'll accept Aranda back for 2026 is if he fires himself as DC and hires a proven replacement with his own proven scheme.
Bearsalwayswin
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agree we need a dc
drahthaar
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bear2be2 said:

Guitarbiscuit said:

bear2be2 said:

Disregard my other posts in this thread.

It's over. Fire these clowns and start over.


I too thought it was over. Glad they won.

But our Defense needs to get a lot better, and I just don't think they have the talent to get better. This is another situation where I hope I'm wrong.

The only way I'll accept Aranda back for 2026 is if he fires himself as DC and hires a proven replacement with his own proven scheme.


If his "proven scheme" requires generational talent to be "proven", then the scheme itself isn't proven; only the athletes' talent and ability to execute.
bear2be2
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drahthaar said:

bear2be2 said:

Guitarbiscuit said:

bear2be2 said:

Disregard my other posts in this thread.

It's over. Fire these clowns and start over.


I too thought it was over. Glad they won.

But our Defense needs to get a lot better, and I just don't think they have the talent to get better. This is another situation where I hope I'm wrong.

The only way I'll accept Aranda back for 2026 is if he fires himself as DC and hires a proven replacement with his own proven scheme.


If his "proven scheme" requires generational talent to be "proven", then the scheme itself isn't proven; only the athletes' talent and ability to execute.

I want someone from the G5 or low P4 ranks, so that wouldn't be a problem for those I'm interested in.

A guy like Colin Hitschler at James Madison would be really interesting to me. Good pedigree and excellent success at a lower level.
Porteroso
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bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.

Not really. That's a very Reese Bobby outlook on the situation, frankly. And he was high when he said that.

It's a perfectly rational position to hold that the program reset that would come with a coaching change is a less desirable outcome than Aranda finding a way to meet expectations this year and to continue to build on strengths/shore up weaknesses in future seasons.

One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.

Look Aranda has already replaced his entire staff. Hasn't helped much. Resets have already happened. We know by now what he is. Bad, bad recruiter, bad coach.

When I watch the product on the field, I assume we recruit horribly. Somehow the internet thinks differently. How many years do we need to be we flushing the toilet on the program?
bear2be2
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Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.

Not really. That's a very Reese Bobby outlook on the situation, frankly. And he was high when he said that.

It's a perfectly rational position to hold that the program reset that would come with a coaching change is a less desirable outcome than Aranda finding a way to meet expectations this year and to continue to build on strengths/shore up weaknesses in future seasons.

One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.

Look Aranda has already replaced his entire staff. Hasn't helped much. Resets have already happened. We know by now what he is. Bad, bad recruiter, bad coach.

When I watch the product on the field, I assume we recruit horribly. Somehow the internet thinks differently. How many years do we need to be we flushing the toilet on the program?

We're 10-3 in our last 13 games with nine wins against power conference teams and losses to LSU, Auburn and the defending conference champions.

It's not nearly as dire as you and many others are making it sound.

Is our team frustrating as hell to watch? Sure. But the results are what they are. Since we committed to keeping pace with our peers in NIL, our floor has been pretty damn high. Certainly satisfactory at a program with Baylor's football history.

The key now is to make the necessary changes to raise the ceiling -- something that would be done instantly with a more competent defense.

As long as we get to seven wins this season, Dave Aranda's not going anywhere. And frankly, based on his entire body of work, he shouldn't. Knowing that's the case, it makes more sense to focus on going out and getting the best young DC you can find to pair with Jake Spavital's offense and try to build on the success we've had since the midway point of last season.
bear2be2
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Youre a clown said:

Yep, can't discount that awesome culture. That's what it's all about

That culture has helped us win two games this year in which we trailed by 14 with less than 10 minutes remaining.

It's quite literally the difference between being 2-4 and 4-2 right now, so I would say it is pretty awesome. And those who discount it are foolish to do so.
Guitarbiscuit
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bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.

Not really. That's a very Reese Bobby outlook on the situation, frankly. And he was high when he said that.

It's a perfectly rational position to hold that the program reset that would come with a coaching change is a less desirable outcome than Aranda finding a way to meet expectations this year and to continue to build on strengths/shore up weaknesses in future seasons.

One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.

Look Aranda has already replaced his entire staff. Hasn't helped much. Resets have already happened. We know by now what he is. Bad, bad recruiter, bad coach.

When I watch the product on the field, I assume we recruit horribly. Somehow the internet thinks differently. How many years do we need to be we flushing the toilet on the program?

We're 10-3 in our last 13 games with nine wins against power conference teams and losses to LSU, Auburn and the defending conference champions.

It's not nearly as dire as you and many others are making it sound.

Is our team frustrating as hell to watch? Sure. But the results are what they are. Since we committed to keeping pace with our peers in NIL, our floor has been pretty damn high. Certainly satisfactory at a program with Baylor's football history.

The key now is to make the necessary changes to raise the ceiling -- something that would be done instantly with a more competent defense.

As long as we get to seven wins this season, Dave Aranda's not going anywhere. And frankly, based on his entire body of work, he shouldn't. Knowing that's the case, it makes more sense to focus on going out and getting the best young DC you can find to pair with Jake Spavital's offense and try to build on the success we've had since the midway point of last season.

One thing I have not quite been able to figure out is whether the defensive woes are due to a lack of talent or a lack of development and coaching. If it's the former, getting a new DC in and of itself is not the answer. If the latter, then it makes sense. It just appears to me (and I could be wrong as I'm no football analyst), that there are some holes at the LB position limiting run stops as well as a lack of secondary speed. So far it's pretty clear that for whatever reason, Aranda has been unable to recruit well on D but has recruited well on offense. He's sort of stuck in the old Mike Leach Texas Tech mode. If I had to guess, in the end it comes down to Jimmy's and Joes or lack thereof. So a new DC would be good only if he comes with an ability to recruit well, like a Joey Mcguire clone. I think Aranda's X's and O's are probably fine but the talent level required to implement them is not there. As a microcosm of the issue, take the game yesterday for example. There was one run play I think and Aranda had called for one of his linemen to rush a gap or something, liinemen correctly rushed the gap but was unable to get the tackle. Analyst said something to the effect of, "Well, Aranda had the correct call on that one but Baylor didn't get the stop." And they panned to Aranda and he was visibly upset, as if he was thinking "What the hell do I have to do?" Of course I'm just making up stuff up here. Perhaps he was just upset about the Berenstein Bears and their lack of inclusion in pregrame talks.

bear2be2
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Guitarbiscuit said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.

Not really. That's a very Reese Bobby outlook on the situation, frankly. And he was high when he said that.

It's a perfectly rational position to hold that the program reset that would come with a coaching change is a less desirable outcome than Aranda finding a way to meet expectations this year and to continue to build on strengths/shore up weaknesses in future seasons.

One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.

Look Aranda has already replaced his entire staff. Hasn't helped much. Resets have already happened. We know by now what he is. Bad, bad recruiter, bad coach.

When I watch the product on the field, I assume we recruit horribly. Somehow the internet thinks differently. How many years do we need to be we flushing the toilet on the program?

We're 10-3 in our last 13 games with nine wins against power conference teams and losses to LSU, Auburn and the defending conference champions.

It's not nearly as dire as you and many others are making it sound.

Is our team frustrating as hell to watch? Sure. But the results are what they are. Since we committed to keeping pace with our peers in NIL, our floor has been pretty damn high. Certainly satisfactory at a program with Baylor's football history.

The key now is to make the necessary changes to raise the ceiling -- something that would be done instantly with a more competent defense.

As long as we get to seven wins this season, Dave Aranda's not going anywhere. And frankly, based on his entire body of work, he shouldn't. Knowing that's the case, it makes more sense to focus on going out and getting the best young DC you can find to pair with Jake Spavital's offense and try to build on the success we've had since the midway point of last season.

One thing I have not quite been able to figure out is whether the defensive woes are due to a lack of talent or a lack of development and coaching. If it's the former, getting a new DC in and of itself is not the answer. If the latter, then it makes sense. It just appears to me (and I could be wrong as I'm no football analyst), that there are some holes at the LB position limiting run stops as well as a lack of secondary speed. So far it's pretty clear that for whatever reason, Aranda has been unable to recruit well on D but has recruited well on offense. He's sort of stuck in the old Mike Leach Texas Tech mode. If I had to guess, in the end it comes down to Jimmy's and Joes or lack thereof. So a new DC would be good only if he comes with an ability to recruit well, like a Joey Mcguire clone. I think Aranda's X's and O's are probably fine but the talent level required to implement them is not there. As a microcosm of the issue, take the game yesterday for example. There was one run play I think and Aranda had called for one of his linemen to rush a gap or something, liinemen correctly rushed the gap but was unable to get the tackle. Analyst said something to the effect of, "Well, Aranda had the correct call on that one but Baylor didn't get the stop." And they panned to Aranda and he was visibly upset, as if he was thinking "What the hell do I have to do?" Of course I'm just making up stuff up here. Perhaps he was just upset about the Berenstein Bears and their lack of inclusion in pregrame talks.

I don't think it's a lack of effort. Our guys play hard. What they don't do is play fast.

Watching as many games as I do every Saturday, I'm constantly struck by how much quicker other teams' players are to read and react to what they're seeing. Our guys are consistently a step slow when it comes to diagnosing what they're seeing and getting to the football.

I think it's likely our defense is too complicated. Our guys are constantly thinking. And if you're busy thinking, you're going to spend a lot of times on your heels. We need a scheme that allows our guys to go out there, play free and confident, and fly to the football. You can't play defense on your heels.
Ewalker80
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bear2be2 said:

Guitarbiscuit said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.

Not really. That's a very Reese Bobby outlook on the situation, frankly. And he was high when he said that.

It's a perfectly rational position to hold that the program reset that would come with a coaching change is a less desirable outcome than Aranda finding a way to meet expectations this year and to continue to build on strengths/shore up weaknesses in future seasons.

One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.

Look Aranda has already replaced his entire staff. Hasn't helped much. Resets have already happened. We know by now what he is. Bad, bad recruiter, bad coach.

When I watch the product on the field, I assume we recruit horribly. Somehow the internet thinks differently. How many years do we need to be we flushing the toilet on the program?

We're 10-3 in our last 13 games with nine wins against power conference teams and losses to LSU, Auburn and the defending conference champions.

It's not nearly as dire as you and many others are making it sound.

Is our team frustrating as hell to watch? Sure. But the results are what they are. Since we committed to keeping pace with our peers in NIL, our floor has been pretty damn high. Certainly satisfactory at a program with Baylor's football history.

The key now is to make the necessary changes to raise the ceiling -- something that would be done instantly with a more competent defense.

As long as we get to seven wins this season, Dave Aranda's not going anywhere. And frankly, based on his entire body of work, he shouldn't. Knowing that's the case, it makes more sense to focus on going out and getting the best young DC you can find to pair with Jake Spavital's offense and try to build on the success we've had since the midway point of last season.

One thing I have not quite been able to figure out is whether the defensive woes are due to a lack of talent or a lack of development and coaching. If it's the former, getting a new DC in and of itself is not the answer. If the latter, then it makes sense. It just appears to me (and I could be wrong as I'm no football analyst), that there are some holes at the LB position limiting run stops as well as a lack of secondary speed. So far it's pretty clear that for whatever reason, Aranda has been unable to recruit well on D but has recruited well on offense. He's sort of stuck in the old Mike Leach Texas Tech mode. If I had to guess, in the end it comes down to Jimmy's and Joes or lack thereof. So a new DC would be good only if he comes with an ability to recruit well, like a Joey Mcguire clone. I think Aranda's X's and O's are probably fine but the talent level required to implement them is not there. As a microcosm of the issue, take the game yesterday for example. There was one run play I think and Aranda had called for one of his linemen to rush a gap or something, liinemen correctly rushed the gap but was unable to get the tackle. Analyst said something to the effect of, "Well, Aranda had the correct call on that one but Baylor didn't get the stop." And they panned to Aranda and he was visibly upset, as if he was thinking "What the hell do I have to do?" Of course I'm just making up stuff up here. Perhaps he was just upset about the Berenstein Bears and their lack of inclusion in pregrame talks.

I don't think it's a lack of effort. Our guys play hard. What they don't do is play fast.

Watching as many games as I do every Saturday, I'm constantly struck by how much quicker other teams' players are to read and react to what they're seeing. Our guys are consistently a step slow when it comes to diagnosing what they're seeing and getting to the football.

I think it's likely our defense is too complicated. Our guys are constantly thinking. And if you're busy thinking, you're going to spend a lot of times on your heels. We need a scheme that allows our guys to go out there, play free and confident, and fly to the football. You can't play defense on your heels.


Dave was expecting to have different players back there. Devin turner would have been the most decorated and experienced player in the secondary and travion Barnes was player of the year and leading tackler in his conference. Instead we are breaking in young guys and it's showing. Hopefully they will continue to improve as the year goes on. There's no substitute for experience in football, especially on defense.
bear2be2
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Ewalker80 said:

bear2be2 said:

Guitarbiscuit said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Porteroso said:

bear2be2 said:

Ewalker80 said:

If we lose this game I think it's almost impossible for the season not to be a disappointment. KSU is solid but if you don't win this you are not a big 12 title contender. That means you wasted the senior season of one of your all time best QBs who is leading the country in passing and one of the best dudes to ever wear the uniform. Tackle that Qb and rb and we should win.

Yeah, there's no hedging here. We need to win this game. We're better than they are and we're at home.

A loss would would likely turn the tide for all but the most ardent Dave Aranda supporters that he's capable of getting this program where we want it to be.

That has come and gone. Anyone hoping Aranda is the coach next year is an ardent supporter.

Not really. That's a very Reese Bobby outlook on the situation, frankly. And he was high when he said that.

It's a perfectly rational position to hold that the program reset that would come with a coaching change is a less desirable outcome than Aranda finding a way to meet expectations this year and to continue to build on strengths/shore up weaknesses in future seasons.

One doesn't have to be an ardent supporter of Aranda to root for him to succeed. Particularly given that, contrary to popular opinion here, there are a lot of good things happening on the recruiting and culture side of things that would be difficult to maintain/replicate with a new coach ... in the short-term, at least.

Look Aranda has already replaced his entire staff. Hasn't helped much. Resets have already happened. We know by now what he is. Bad, bad recruiter, bad coach.

When I watch the product on the field, I assume we recruit horribly. Somehow the internet thinks differently. How many years do we need to be we flushing the toilet on the program?

We're 10-3 in our last 13 games with nine wins against power conference teams and losses to LSU, Auburn and the defending conference champions.

It's not nearly as dire as you and many others are making it sound.

Is our team frustrating as hell to watch? Sure. But the results are what they are. Since we committed to keeping pace with our peers in NIL, our floor has been pretty damn high. Certainly satisfactory at a program with Baylor's football history.

The key now is to make the necessary changes to raise the ceiling -- something that would be done instantly with a more competent defense.

As long as we get to seven wins this season, Dave Aranda's not going anywhere. And frankly, based on his entire body of work, he shouldn't. Knowing that's the case, it makes more sense to focus on going out and getting the best young DC you can find to pair with Jake Spavital's offense and try to build on the success we've had since the midway point of last season.

One thing I have not quite been able to figure out is whether the defensive woes are due to a lack of talent or a lack of development and coaching. If it's the former, getting a new DC in and of itself is not the answer. If the latter, then it makes sense. It just appears to me (and I could be wrong as I'm no football analyst), that there are some holes at the LB position limiting run stops as well as a lack of secondary speed. So far it's pretty clear that for whatever reason, Aranda has been unable to recruit well on D but has recruited well on offense. He's sort of stuck in the old Mike Leach Texas Tech mode. If I had to guess, in the end it comes down to Jimmy's and Joes or lack thereof. So a new DC would be good only if he comes with an ability to recruit well, like a Joey Mcguire clone. I think Aranda's X's and O's are probably fine but the talent level required to implement them is not there. As a microcosm of the issue, take the game yesterday for example. There was one run play I think and Aranda had called for one of his linemen to rush a gap or something, liinemen correctly rushed the gap but was unable to get the tackle. Analyst said something to the effect of, "Well, Aranda had the correct call on that one but Baylor didn't get the stop." And they panned to Aranda and he was visibly upset, as if he was thinking "What the hell do I have to do?" Of course I'm just making up stuff up here. Perhaps he was just upset about the Berenstein Bears and their lack of inclusion in pregrame talks.

I don't think it's a lack of effort. Our guys play hard. What they don't do is play fast.

Watching as many games as I do every Saturday, I'm constantly struck by how much quicker other teams' players are to read and react to what they're seeing. Our guys are consistently a step slow when it comes to diagnosing what they're seeing and getting to the football.

I think it's likely our defense is too complicated. Our guys are constantly thinking. And if you're busy thinking, you're going to spend a lot of times on your heels. We need a scheme that allows our guys to go out there, play free and confident, and fly to the football. You can't play defense on your heels.


Dave was expecting to have different players back there. Devin turner would have been the most decorated and experienced player in the secondary and travion Barnes was player of the year and leading tackler in his conference. Instead we are breaking in young guys and it's showing. Hopefully they will continue to improve as the year goes on. There's no substitute for experience in football, especially on defense.

This is a fair point, but this issue isn't unique to this season. We've had the same defensive issues for going on four years now.

Our defense has consistently played slow.
Guitarbiscuit
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So while I lean more toward a talent problem, what I think you are saying is that the talent appears to be there but it's more of a coaching issue.......
bear2be2
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Guitarbiscuit said:


So while I lean more toward a talent problem, what I think you are saying is that the talent appears to be there but it's more of a coaching issue.......

I think it's a combination of the two.

Our defensive line lacks talent. We need better players up front. Full stop.

But we have the speed and athleticism to field a more competent linebacking corps and secondary than we have the past three years. Those guys are consistently in the wrong spot or a step slow to where they're supposed to be.
Guitarbiscuit
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Yes I agree there. LBs in particular look fine speed wise but are never in the right position. Only one in correct position most of the time is Redding and I think he plays safety. Sometimes it appears Aranda is utilizing Redding in more linebacker duties too. Perhaps he knows Redding is currently the most adept at diagnosing regardless of the defensive responsibilities he has.
bear2be2
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Guitarbiscuit said:

Yes I agree there. LBs in particular look fine speed wise but are never in the right position. Only one in correct position most of the time is Redding and I think he plays safety. Sometimes it appears Aranda is utilizing Redding in more linebacker duties too. Perhaps he knows Redding is currently the most adept at diagnosing regardless of the defensive responsibilities he has.

I feel like Keaton Thomas is pretty consistently in position. He's a really good player who would look even better if he had better, more consistent players around him.

But he's one of precious few difference-makers on our defense.

The list is probably just him and Jackie Marshall honestly, though Redding has shown the ability to make difference-making plays.
Robert Wilson
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Good thread fellas.

I agree that the defense appears to be too complicated. If a kid spends one quick boom/boom thinking, you just turned a 4.5 into a 5 flat.
Dia del DougO
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Robert Wilson said:

Good thread fellas.

I agree that the defense appears to be too complicated. If a kid spends one quick boom/boom thinking, you just turned a 4.5 into a 5 flat.

I doubt it is any more complicated than it was at LSU.

"The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool."
BEAR 45
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Dia del DougO said:

Robert Wilson said:

Good thread fellas.

I agree that the defense appears to be too complicated. If a kid spends one quick boom/boom thinking, you just turned a 4.5 into a 5 flat.

I doubt it is any more complicated than it was at LSU.



I wouldn't bet on that ! At LSU he had a DOMINANT defensive line, That translates into double teams from the offensive line and frees the LB to make plays on the ball, not try and get off the block of a 300 lb lineman. What I see is a defensive line that is not capable of playing a lot of straight up and is constantly having to stunt to put any pressure on the QB or keep the LB's clean to stop the running game. Our secondary is not capable of close man coverage like the defense at LSU. It only takes one lb or defensive back to blow coverage for there to be a big play, even if the other 10 are where they are supposed to be. I do like Aranda and wish him success, but am beginning to believe that his teams take on his personality. I don't see any excitement on the part of players, either in the game or on the sidelines , Oh , they get excited after a big play, but that seems to last for only a play or two. When they do carry some excitement over an entire series we have seen what they can do, but that seems to only happen in the latter portion of the fourth quarter. Defense needs emotion to be successful and sorry, I just don't see it when the game starts.


Quinton
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It worked in 21' bc Pitre and Bernard were 2 of the 50 best players in the country (probably better considering their pro success) and we had a seasoned tough line.

They were completely self motivated and Roberts was still here. You aren't going to have two excellent hybrid guys every year that can cover many mistakes.

Need a reboot on defense bc this isn't working. Maybe the bye can bring something new
canoso
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A recent BU HC was able to get DLs like Andrew Billings and Shawn Oakman. NIL notwithstanding, it stands to reason things like that could still happen with BU football.
 
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