Well, we've got today and next weekend before the final 12 teams are selected.

Here is how I see it at this point.

Locks to make the field no matter what:

OSU
Indiana
Georgia
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

Near Locks, but need to win on Saturday to guarantee a spot:

Oregon
Notre Dame
OU

Controls their own destiny, but must win out to get in:

BYU
Texas Tech
SMU
Virginia
North Texas
Tulane

Likely in with a win on Saturday:

Michigan

Must win on Saturday, and then needs some help:

Miami
Pitt
Vandy
James Madison

Needs a bit of chaos to happen to have a chance:

Texas
Utah
UNLV
Navy


Should be a fun 2 weeks.

It's extremely hard to analyze it at this point given how many teams are still in play. The question is - as it seemingly always will be - how many 2 loss P4 teams won't make the CFP?

Last year, it was two - BYU and Miami. This year, Miami, BYU, Michigan, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Utah, etc. could all fall in that bucket.

With Pitt and Michigan losing, that narrowed the field slightly.

If it were up to me, here is how I would determine the Top 12 teams (assuming Bama and ND win tonight).

OSU (12-0) - No arguments
Indiana (12-0) - No arguments
Georgia (11-1) - No arguments
Oregon (11-1) - No arguments
Ole Miss (11-1) - Not super-excited about them due to schedule, but beating OU on the road gets 'em in.
Texas A&M (11-1) - Even less excited about them due to a very weak SEC schedule, but win at ND gets 'em in.
Notre Dame (9-2) - Has played solid ball these last few weeks and have dominated since their losses.
Miami (10-2) - Like A&M, also beat ND. Key loss came against an SMU squad that may very well win the ACC.
Texas Tech/BYU winner
SMU/UVA winner
UNT/Tulane winner
Bama (9-2) - But only if they win next week as well against Georgia.


If Bama stumbles, I'd take them out altogether, as they would be 3-loss non-champs.

Would probably replace them with Texas (9-3), who beat both OU (10-2) and Vandy (10-2) on the field of play.

Still not impressed with OU or Vandy enough to put them in over the teams above (as well as above Texas), as neither have any impressive wins over teams like those above.

Utah (10-2) lost to both a Tech and BYU, so they'd be out of contention based on that alone.

If SMU loses to Cal tonight definitely out

UPDATED (Going Ahead and Penciling in ND, since they are all over Stanford at the moment).

This has been changed to how I actually see things playing out.

OSU (12-0) - No arguments
Indiana (12-0) - No arguments
Georgia (11-1) - No arguments
Oregon (11-1) - No arguments
Ole Miss (11-1) - Not super-excited about them due to schedule, but beating OU on the road gets 'em in.
Texas A&M (11-1) - Even less excited about them due to a very weak SEC schedule, but win at ND gets 'em in.
Notre Dame (10-2) - Has played solid ball these last few weeks and have dominated since their losses.
Texas Tech/BYU winner
UVA (10-2) - If they beat Duke
UNT/Tulane winner
Bama (10-2) - But only if they win next week against Georgia.
OU (10-2) - But only if UVA wins.


However, should Bama and/or UVA stumble at the finish line, then I think there is chaos.

If Bama loses, they are out, as they would be 3-loss non-champs.

If UVA loses, then they would also be out as 3-loss non champs.

As the ACC Champ, Duke (7-5) would not be high enough in the rankings to beat out James Madison or maybe even UNLV at that point (assuming both teams win).

So here is what will probably happen:

-If only UVA loses, then James Madison (11-1) or UNLV (10-2) gets in with a win. I also believe the committee would throw the ACC a bone under this scenario, and put Miami in as an at-large selection.

Putting Miami in would mean sacrificing OU to make the ACC happy (SEC still needs the ACC to be a cooperating partner when it comes to dictating how the CFP plays out in the future).


-If both UVA and Bama lose, then it's less messy, and both OU and Miami get in as at-large teams.


-If only Bama loses, then I think Miami (10-2), Texas (9-3), and Vandy (10-2) would receive consideration for the final spot.

Miami might still have a slight edge under this scenario, but Texas (9-3) would definitely be in the running, having beaten both OU (10-2) and Vandy (10-2), along with Texas A&M (11-1). These wins would carry considerable weight with the committee.

Smashmouth said:

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If SMU loses to Cal tonight definitely out

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…..Which happened.

If BYU beats Tech, both should get in. In that scenario, you shouldn't punish Tech for losing one regular season game where their QB was out and for losing an extra game, especially with how dominant they've looked all season

GoldenBear007 said:

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If BYU beats Tech, both should get in. In that scenario, you shouldn't punish Tech for losing one regular season game where their QB was out and for losing an extra game, especially with how dominant they've looked all season

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As long as Tech is competitive.

I think the Big 12 is only gonna get 1 team in.

It just seems like no two loss Big 12 team is going to have much of a chance to get in.

Not saying this is fair, just the way it will wind up.

Jacques Strap said:

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I think the Big 12 is only gonna get 1 team in.

It just seems like no two loss Big 12 team is going to have much of a chance to get in.

Not saying this is fair, just the way it will wind up.

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Which is how it was planned all along with the expansion to 12:
5 SEC
4 Big10
1 ACC
1 Big12
1 G5

Delmar 2.0 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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I think the Big 12 is only gonna get 1 team in.

It just seems like no two loss Big 12 team is going to have much of a chance to get in.

Not saying this is fair, just the way it will wind up.

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Which is how it was planned all along with the expansion to 12:
5 SEC
4 Big10
1 ACC
1 Big12
1 G5

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Agree 100%

Delmar 2.0 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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I think the Big 12 is only gonna get 1 team in.

It just seems like no two loss Big 12 team is going to have much of a chance to get in.

Not saying this is fair, just the way it will wind up.

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Which is how it was planned all along with the expansion to 12:
5 SEC
4 Big10
1 ACC
1 Big12
1 G5

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Yeah. It's their party. We're just there as food.

An interesting scenario will be JMU handily winning the Sun Belt, Tulane winning the AAC, and Duke winning the ACC… does the ACC get left out in that scenario or does Miami sneak in but avoid the ACC title game?

Ohio State just seems so much better than everybody else. I would take them against the field easily. Its gonna all be for 2nd place and nobody cares about that

Mitch Blood Green said:

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Delmar 2.0 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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I think the Big 12 is only gonna get 1 team in.

It just seems like no two loss Big 12 team is going to have much of a chance to get in.

Not saying this is fair, just the way it will wind up.

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Which is how it was planned all along with the expansion to 12:
5 SEC
4 Big10
1 ACC
1 Big12
1 G5

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Yeah. It's their party. We're just there as food.

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You made me LOL. +1

Mitch Blood Green said:

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Delmar 2.0 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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I think the Big 12 is only gonna get 1 team in.

It just seems like no two loss Big 12 team is going to have much of a chance to get in.

Not saying this is fair, just the way it will wind up.

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Which is how it was planned all along with the expansion to 12:
5 SEC
4 Big10
1 ACC
1 Big12
1 G5

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Yeah. It's their party. We're just there as food.

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Best post of the week.

3 scenarios this weekend that make it crazy:
1. Bama beats Georgia--A&M starts a free fall because they only beat one team above .500 this year and that team was sub .500 when A&M beat them.
2. Indiana beat OSU--no real chaos here, but it would be fun. Indiana goes to one.
3. BYU beats Tech--I think this puts two Big 12 teams in so someone from the SEC? has to leave, or Notre Dame.

Sadly the B12 needs Tech to be its entrant. BYU isn't winning a playoff game imo. Tech can win a game and make a quarterfinal interesting. It's absolutely parallel that the B12 wins a playoff game or 2 this season.

We desperately need a playoff win against the Big10 or SEC. TCU's was erased from history by the sports world after what Georgia did to them.

IowaBear said:

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Sadly the B12 needs Tech to be its entrant. BYU isn't winning a playoff game imo. Tech can win a game and make a quarterfinal interesting. It's absolutely parallel that the B12 wins a playoff game or 2 this season.

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Arizona state was a 4th down stop away from beating UT last year. I think Tech can make a legitimate run. There's still a chance committee moves them up to #4 seed and earn the bye if they look good in Big 12 title game.

I don't think much matters though because Ohio state looks dominant. I think there's a good chance they repeat it's a shame some teams like Tennessee and Oregon got passes for getting blown out large year

I think the committee is quietly hoping for both Duke and Bama to lose on Saturday (a BYU loss to Tech would also be preferred, for good measure).

If this happens, then most of their problems go away.

ACC gets their rep in with no drama (UVA) and might even get Miami in as Bama's replacement.

It's a lot easier to dismiss JMU and UNLV under those circumstances (assuming either wins on Saturday and would be eligible as the 5th highest ranked conference champ in the event that Duke were to prevail).

It's also easier to include a 2-loss Miami team over a 3-loss Texas team - especially since the SEC would already be getting 4 slots.

So as long as Georgia, UVA, and Tech handle business, I think there is minimal drama (Texas would be the only P4 team with a legitimate gripe, as Utah and Vandy have no shot).

Duke AND Bama both winning would not be good for business, however, since the ACC would run the risk of being left out entirely.

However, I could still see the SEC offices sacrificing OU under this scenario, to ensure Miami gets in as an at-large selection for the ACC.

IowaBear said:

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Sadly the B12 needs Tech to be its entrant. BYU isn't winning a playoff game imo. Tech can win a game and make a quarterfinal interesting. It's absolutely parallel that the B12 wins a playoff game or 2 this season.

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Concur. B12 fans should all be rooting for Tech. We would be better off in this cycle if ASU had pulled off the win vs UT.

ATM, we're rising into a clear #3 if you look at overall conference performance. We really need to make *a little* noise at the top of CFB if we want to separate from the ACC, get closer to nipping at the B10's heels, and increase our adds for multiple CFP slots in future years.

boykin_spaniel said:

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We desperately need a playoff win against the Big10 or SEC. TCU's was erased from history by the sports world after what Georgia did to them.

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Kind of funny ... I definitely was jealous of its success, but then it just because a punching bag and one liner - the CFP and Georgia ended up being a net negative for its brand.