Polymarket: 60% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April.

>$22 million wagered on this so far.

I don't think it should be legal to "bet" on something like this - you're creating a financial incentive for bad actors to promote war/death. pic.twitter.com/hrlqbfPUpJ

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 22, 2026

Ban this shit. It's corrosive to society https://t.co/kq00S36hzT

— Liam Nissan™ (@theliamnissan) April 3, 2026

Learn more from a recent Sienna survey here: https://t.co/lbPp5x75Hm.

— More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) April 14, 2026

Warren Buffett, in his first sit-down since stepping down as Berkshire CEO, gave the cleanest indictment of legalized gambling in a decade. He called it a tax cut for the wealthy. The math proves him exactly right.

Americans wagered $165 billion at legal sportsbooks in 2025.… pic.twitter.com/edLe9hAO2Z

— Aakash Gupta (@aakashgupta) April 26, 2026

Warren Buffett, in his first sit-down since stepping down as Berkshire CEO, gave the cleanest indictment of legalized gambling in a decade. He called it a tax cut for the wealthy. The math proves him exactly right.

Americans wagered $165 billion at legal sportsbooks in 2025. They lost $16 billion of that. FanDuel pulled $6 billion of the losses. DraftKings pulled $5.3 billion. Every state with legal mobile sports betting collected a tax on the bettor side. New York alone took in over $1.2 billion in 2025 sports betting tax revenue.

Layer the lottery on top. State lotteries generate over $90 billion a year. The bottom half of income earners account for roughly 70% of total spend. The average lottery player makes $38,000. A household earning $20,000 spends three times more on tickets than one earning $30,000. The implicit tax rate, meaning whatever the state keeps after prizes, runs 30 to 50% depending on the game. No other revenue source in America has that base and that rate.

The structural design is the engine. A single straight sports bet carries a hold of 4 to 5%. A four-leg parlay carries a hold above 30%. FanDuel and DraftKings spent five years rebuilding their apps to make parlays the default product. FanDuel's blended hold rate hit 11.4% in 2025, up from roughly 7% in 2022. The product got worse for the customer and the customer wagered more anyway.

Now look at the substitution. Nine US states have no state income tax. Seven of those nine run state lotteries. Seven of those nine have legalized sports betting. The states most committed to never taxing wealth are the same states running the largest extraction machines on people who cannot afford to lose. Read it as policy.

Here is what Buffett is actually pointing at. The state needs revenue. It can raise income tax on the top decile, or it can run a lottery plus a sports betting tax. The second option raises the money from the people who can least afford it. The first option becomes politically optional. New York's $1.2 billion in 2025 sports betting tax is $1.2 billion the state did not have to ask of someone earning $5 million.

DraftKings and FanDuel sell a privatized collection mechanism for a regressive tax that the state never has to defend at the ballot box again. Voters approve legalization once. Collection runs forever. The state takes a cut. The wealthy get a quieter top bracket. The bettor's cut shrinks every quarter as the parlay menu gets pushed harder.

The function of a government, Buffett said, is not to play its people for suckers.

Thirty-nine state governments now do.

A WSJ analysis found 67% of Polymarket profits goes to just 0.1% of accounts, while most traders are in the red. Most Kalshi users also lose money. https://t.co/Bq3Ei9e8WD

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) May 4, 2026

I've mixed some of my Baylor bets with side plays using casino promos, mostly to stretch my bankroll on slow weeks. The approach from https://bonusharvest.com/guides/how-to-profit-casino-bonuses helped me pick bonuses that actually had decent value instead of wasting time on the junk ones. It's been handy for keeping things low-risk while still giving me a little extra cushion during football season.

The federal government is suing Minnesota after state legislators passed a bill that would ban prediction market companies from operating in the state. https://t.co/utnJRHIiSq

— ABC News (@ABC) May 25, 2026

boognish_bear said:

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The federal government is suing Minnesota after state legislators passed a bill that would ban prediction market companies from operating in the state. https://t.co/utnJRHIiSq

— ABC News (@ABC) May 25, 2026

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MN tried to craft their legislation to get around the Federalism problem, but I don't think they're going to get there.

The sticky wicket is that Kalshi and Polymarket are registered futures markets with the federal government. Futures are vital to commodities and other markets since they let farmers know about what the crops they plant today will bring in 6 months. They let oil or steel traders stabilize their sale prices and provide a counterweight to a "spot price" (buy right now) market.

They're clearly not the same thing, and Kalshi and Poly are clearly just there for gambling related interests. However, they're (currently) licensed by the Feds, so the power to make and enforce those restrictions is 100% with the federal government - even though I don't like it.

I've mixed in lottery plays on the side when my football picks feel a bit too sweaty, and toto has been fun for that. The jackpots can get wild and it gives me something low-pressure to pair with my weekend bets
If you ever want a tiny breather from the usual lines and spreads, tossing a few bucks there can be a nice change of pace

"Betting in golf is something that's going to have to be tackled here soon."

Jordan Spieth says sports betting has caused fan behavior at PGA Tour events to change. pic.twitter.com/MrBmmq51Lr

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) June 30, 2026

Decline is a choice

Gambling becomes America’s favorite pastime as Americans spend more on sports bets than movies, arts, museums, and music combinedhttps://t.co/FQDG1GxxQ6

— Kathryn Watson (@kathrynw5) July 27, 2026

Two weeks ago, five “block” trades — trades negotiated off exchange — were placed on LSU to have a successful college football season, worth a combined $3 million.

The total combined payout of $3 million if LSU won the national championship is exactly equal to Kiffin’s national…

— InGame (@InGameHQ) August 28, 2026