This would be as good a thread as any to get everyone's threshold for a season successful enough to save Dave's job.

I've already stated mine at 8-4. That's a good season at Baylor, and if we achieve that record or better, I'll be OK giving Dave another go with what looks like his best staff yet. But anything less than that, I think it's time to start over with a new coach.

What say y'all?

bear2be2 said:

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This would be as good a thread as any to get everyone's threshold for a season successful enough to save Dave's job.

I've already stated mine at 8-4. That's a good season at Baylor, and if we achieve that record or better, I'll be OK giving Dave another go with what looks like his best staff yet. But anything less than that, I think it's time to start over with a new coach.

What say y'all?

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I posted above, but I would say it would require an appearance in the conference championship, however many wins that takes.

Dave's staying regardless imo. The fans threshold doesn't align with the admins. Baylor probably goes 5-7 and he will get another year. I strongly believe Dave's seat is ice cold. He's going absolutely no where barring a 2-10 season.

Youre a clown said:

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Y'all are going to learn throughout the course of the season that what you see with Lagway is what you get. He pretty much operates in varying degrees of hurt, and he turns the ball over a lot. That's not to take anything away from his arm talent, because he has it. Bottom line, this idea that he's going to be completely healed up over the course of another 11 games in the season is likely not going to happen


As for Mr Aranda - Dave never stopped being the coach that lost to Air Force and Texas State after having weeks/an entire off-season respectively to prepare for both. His team and coordinators are better, but he's still that guy. If I was the person making decisions at Baylor, he would really have to blow me away to be retained. For me, that means taking us to the conference championship at an absolute minimum

What I think is more likely to happen is that Dave will win 6 games (+-1), and he will be retained on the basis that we fought hard, had good vibes, found our identity, or other sort of abstract ideas that aren't reflected in the win/loss column

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I would have a hard time saying yes to another year with only 6 wins. The defense looks too good to only win 6. I do think the offense will get better.

Honestly, looking at our schedule, anything less than 8-4 would be a disappointment. TCU looked awful. I don't think ISU and ASU will be as good. Colorado, Kansas, UCF should be wins. UH didn't really impress me either. Tech and BYU will be the two tough ones. Win one of those and all the rest, and you are looking to be in the conference championship game.

Still too much seadon left.

Auburn will likely be bottom 5 in the SEC this season, but still lots of football to be played.

If Lagway keeps making dumb mistakes like hurdling players and making inaccurate throws, then the season will be much longer than hoped for. Ability isn't in question. But he has to consistently be accurate to win in the current environment against good defenses.

I have felt 4-8 for some time. Dave should be gone save except who the 4 wins may be. (that is enough to keep him, Admin thinking)
It is a shame he has us over the barrel because of our buyout clause.

Everyone keeps saying 8 wins don't exist on our schedule. Did no one else watch any football? It is possible if we clean up the red zone issues and dumb hurdle plays we enter Provo with one loss. Likely? No, but looking at the schedule it's definitely within the realm of possibility.

Unless Auburn's OL and DL end up being the worst in the SEC we should control the line of scrimmage in most of our games here on out at least on defense.

IowaBear said:

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Dave's staying regardless imo. The fans threshold doesn't align with the admins. Baylor probably goes 5-7 and he will get another year. I strongly believe Dave's seat is ice cold. He's going absolutely no where barring a 2-10 season.

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If we go 5-7 he is 100 percent out.

Literally nothing supports that

If this were Alabama then I would be impressed but it's Auburn, who is a bottom tier SEC school. The top Big12 schools would obliterate those chumps

Bingo… this board has creamed themselves religiously since Saturday because Baylor played an SEC team close. Context matters

IowaBear said:

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Bingo… this board has creamed themselves religiously since Saturday because Baylor played an SEC team close. Context matters

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My favorite sunshine line is, "OK fellas we lost, but we have a chance to win every game going forward!!"

Yes. That's how odds work my guy

At no point did I say Auburn was good. I said if it turns out there line play isn't the worst in the SEC then we could be competitive in the Big12. That was my point. Also that our we simply have winnable games coming up.

The next 6-7 games on our schedule look like potential wins because those teams look bad. Colorado? Bad. TCU? Bad. Iowa State? New coach and roster. Kansas is unhappy with their coach and have new QB. UCF trying to recreate the Scott Frost experience. ASU will showcase their ability against A&M but they lost their star QB.

We should win most of those. Lose and we will likely be searching the cosmos for a new coach at the end of the season. Lose to a struggling TCU and I think our AD's finger gets real tight around the ejection button.

boykin_spaniel said:

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The next 6-7 games on our schedule look like potential wins because those teams look bad. Colorado? Bad. TCU? Bad. Iowa State? New coach and roster. Kansas is unhappy with their coach and have new QB. UCF trying to recreate the Scott Frost experience. ASU will showcase their ability against A&M but they lost their star QB.

We should win most of those. Lose and we will likely be searching the cosmos for a new coach at the end of the season..

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I literally heard this exact line, almost word for word, about this time a year ago after we lost to a terrible Auburn team. Groundhog Day!

I wasn't referencing you in general. I was referencing the board as a whole. But we say this every year. Schedule is loaded with potential wins. I'd argue every game outside of BYU and Tech is winnable.
But this is the case yearly. Dave just routinely finds ways to lose games he should/could win. If he proves me wrong I'll gladly eat crow.

I'm just stating a fact. I also stated if we don't win most of those we should hit the restart. I have also stated elsewhere that I'd have hired Eric Morris last year. Not a great start for the Pokes but he stepped into a rough spot.

boykin_spaniel said:

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I'm just stating a fact. I also stated if we don't win most of those we should hit the restart. I have also stated elsewhere that I'd have hired Eric Morris last year. Not a great start for the Pokes but he stepped into a rough spot.

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What you're saying is, of course, true. Other than Texas Tech and maybe BYU, no one left on our schedule is substantially more talented than we are, so we could theoretically win all of those other games. We almost certainly won't, but it's possible.

I understand being skeptical after the past four years. I'm skeptical myself. But the unwillingness of so many here just to let things play out and see what happens is frustrating.

We're either going to win a bunch of games and have a fun season or go 5-7 or 6-6 again and watch Aranda get fired and replaced in the offseason. There's no good reason to be perpetually miserable in the meantime.

I'm not asking people to be optimistic. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is still the most likely outcome. But I don't get why so many here just refuse to even acknowledge the possibility that we could exceed expectations, particularly when we've already watched two Dave Aranda teams do so in 2021 and 2024.

Part of what makes the Dave Aranda experience so frustrating is that it's so unpredictable, and we never seem to build on positive momentum when the opportunity arises. But he still has a job today in part because of the rabbits he's pulled out his hat on a couple of occasions in his Baylor tenure. It's certainly possible that he does so again this fall. With what appears to be a vastly improved defense, we'll probably be in most of our games. It's not out of the question that we'll win enough of those to have a successful season.

hodedofome said:

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Ya'll think anything is going to change with Dave? Even if he has a lucky/good season this year, he'll have a mediocre to bad season next year.

We have 7 years of history to know exactly what happens next.

Quit acting like Dave is suddenly going to be a good coach year after year now. You probably think Muslims are peaceful people after 1,400 years of consistently being violent.

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Ignoring the completely unnecessary religious/political nonsense that has no place in a college football discussion, this would be a valid point if there weren't actual variables that lend credence to some level of increased optimism -- namely the addition of an accomplished defensive coordinator and a bunch of proven commodities on the D-line.

If we were running out the exact same staff and roster that went 5-7 last year, I'd be right there with you in the pit of hopeless despair. But because of the changes made in the offseason, I'm willing to take a wait-and-see approach ... for the rest of this season anyway.

I'm still expecting 6-6 or 7-5, which wouldn't be enough to justify bringing Aranda back for another season, but I'll leave open the possibility that dramatically improved defense could lead to significant improvement in the Big 12, where only Tech pays enough to acquire top-flight talent.

Would we make Spav our new HC? or Klanderman? I'd hate to lose those guys

Bear2014 said:

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Would we make Spav our new HC? or Klanderman? I'd hate to lose those guys

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It's hard to envision an internal promotion off the staff of a fired head coach. I can't think of another time that was done without a successful interim tenure in between.

If we start 2-4 or 3-3, though, I hope Aranda is fired and one of the coordinators is given an opportunity to lead the team as an interim. Because I do like this staff and wouldn't be opposed to seeing one of coordinators get a crack at the great coaching job if our candidate pool is limited for some reason.

If Aranda is dumb enough to start an injured Lagway against a FCS team this week, then I won't bother to watch a single game this season.

The most Dave Aranda experience would be going 7-5 but we beat Tech.

Saying the team looks improved doesn't mean Aranda is coaching next year. One positive thing and it's knives out just like one negative thing and knives out from the "everything is great" side. I'll cheer for my team each week and the chips will fall where they do.

bear2be2 said:

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hodedofome said:

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Ya'll think anything is going to change with Dave? Even if he has a lucky/good season this year, he'll have a mediocre to bad season next year.

We have 7 years of history to know exactly what happens next.

Quit acting like Dave is suddenly going to be a good coach year after year now. You probably think Muslims are peaceful people after 1,400 years of consistently being violent.

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Ignoring the completely unnecessary religious/political nonsense that has no place in a college football discussion, this would be a valid point if there weren't actual variables that lend credence to some level of increased optimism -- namely the addition of an accomplished defensive coordinator and a bunch of proven commodities on the D-line.

If we were running out the exact same staff and roster that went 5-7 last year, I'd be right there with you in the pit of hopeless despair. But because of the changes made in the offseason, I'm willing to take a wait-and-see approach ... for the rest of this season anyway.

I'm still expecting 6-6 or 7-5, which wouldn't be enough to justify bringing Aranda back for another season, but I'll leave open the possibility that dramatically improved defense could lead to significant improvement in the Big 12, where only Tech pays enough to acquire top-flight talent.

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I'm usually in line with what you post, but I don't share the optimism, since CDA is still on the sidelines. Our team has probably more talent than last year, but when a head coach has zero feel for decision making in key situations, that probably results in at least 2 losses he should not have had. He's so focused on analytics that he didn't read the boiler plate language last week. Analytics may tell you to go for it, but the underlying factors that your D was playing well and the QB has one leg-I guess he paid no attention to that.

His mechanical way of doing things with no attention to either the minute details or even major details like clock management are the reason I am pessimistic overall. I hope my pessimistic attitude is proven wrong.

I was thinking 5 wins before the game. Now I'm thinking about 6 wins. That's a week-to-week evaluation though, so I may be back to 5 games once conference play begins.
Hope next game does not result in a downgrade back to 5.

I liked what I saw on the O-line and D-line as compared to what I expected to see, and hope we get lucky with injuries there this year.

Guitarbiscuit said:

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bear2be2 said:

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hodedofome said:

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Ya'll think anything is going to change with Dave? Even if he has a lucky/good season this year, he'll have a mediocre to bad season next year.

We have 7 years of history to know exactly what happens next.

Quit acting like Dave is suddenly going to be a good coach year after year now. You probably think Muslims are peaceful people after 1,400 years of consistently being violent.

---

Ignoring the completely unnecessary religious/political nonsense that has no place in a college football discussion, this would be a valid point if there weren't actual variables that lend credence to some level of increased optimism -- namely the addition of an accomplished defensive coordinator and a bunch of proven commodities on the D-line.

If we were running out the exact same staff and roster that went 5-7 last year, I'd be right there with you in the pit of hopeless despair. But because of the changes made in the offseason, I'm willing to take a wait-and-see approach ... for the rest of this season anyway.

I'm still expecting 6-6 or 7-5, which wouldn't be enough to justify bringing Aranda back for another season, but I'll leave open the possibility that dramatically improved defense could lead to significant improvement in the Big 12, where only Tech pays enough to acquire top-flight talent.

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I'm usually in line with what you post, but I don't share the optimism, since CDA is still on the sidelines. Our team has probably more talent than last year, but when a head coach has zero feel for decision making in key situations, that probably results in at least 2 losses he should not have had. He's so focused on analytics that he didn't read the boiler plate language last week. Analytics may tell you to go for it, but the underlying factors that your D was playing well and the QB has one leg-I guess he paid no attention to that.

His mechanical way of doing things with no attention to either the minute details or even major details like clock management are the reason I am pessimistic overall. I hope my pessimistic attitude is proven wrong.

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If he fails, he fails, and we'll have a new coach next year. But before our late-season collapse last year had me dejected and ready to move on, I said I'd like to see Dave fire himself as DC, hire a proven replacement, let the coordinators and position coaches handle the Xs and Os and instruction and focus on being more of a CEO/culture czar type of head coach.

Like everyone else, I was disappointed and angry when he was brought back. But since he was, I'm willing to watch one more "prove it" season with that basic arrangement in place. I came into this season with no expectations -- I don't think I posted here this offseason more than once or twice -- and my expectations remain modest (somewhere between five and seven wins).

But I really like this staff. And after that opener, I can see a path where we get to eight-plus wins and have a generally enjoyable season. That's all I can really hope for in a lame duck season most have predicted to go pretty poorly.

I'll let it play out. If we look good, I'll say it, and if we look bad, I'll say it. If Dave does something I disagree with, I'll certainly speak up. But I didn't see anything Saturday that tells me this team is incapable of competing in the Big 12. So I'll maintain the same "wait and see" approach I've had since this summer.

bear2be2 said:

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boykin_spaniel said:

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I'm just stating a fact. I also stated if we don't win most of those we should hit the restart. I have also stated elsewhere that I'd have hired Eric Morris last year. Not a great start for the Pokes but he stepped into a rough spot.

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What you're saying is, of course, true. Other than Texas Tech and maybe BYU, no one left on our schedule is substantially more talented than we are, so we could theoretically win all of those other games. We almost certainly won't, but it's possible.

I understand being skeptical after the past four years. I'm skeptical myself. But the unwillingness of so many here just to let things play out and see what happens is frustrating.

We're either going to win a bunch of games and have a fun season or go 5-7 or 6-6 again and watch Aranda get fired and replaced in the offseason. There's no good reason to be perpetually miserable in the meantime.

I'm not asking people to be optimistic. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is still the most likely outcome. But I don't get why so many here just refuse to even acknowledge the possibility that we could exceed expectations, particularly when we've already watched two Dave Aranda teams do so in 2021 and 2024.

Part of what makes the Dave Aranda experience so frustrating is that it's so unpredictable, and we never seem to build on positive momentum when the opportunity arises. But he still has a job today in part because of the rabbits he's pulled out his hat on a couple of occasions in his Baylor tenure. It's certainly possible that he does so again this fall. With what appears to be a vastly improved defense, we'll probably be in most of our games. It's not out of the question that we'll win enough of those to have a successful season.

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Quick question. What does "certainly possible" even mean? No, really.

Genuine question: this fire and leadership just doesn't come naturally to Dave. It feels like he finally realizes this is it, and he's throwing absolutely everything into making this a decent year. But even if they pull off a 9-win season, does he actually have what it takes to summon the energy again and sustain that?

Probably not. He's already proven he doesn't have "it" -- not just in his press conferences or public presence, but in his ability to inspire these guys for a full 60 minutes.. to get them to play smart and execute on a consistent basis.. to play physical. Does he finally find his eureka moment in Year 7? Who knows. But we all probably know the answer.

bear2be2 said:

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Guitarbiscuit said:

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bear2be2 said:

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hodedofome said:

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Ya'll think anything is going to change with Dave? Even if he has a lucky/good season this year, he'll have a mediocre to bad season next year.

We have 7 years of history to know exactly what happens next.

Quit acting like Dave is suddenly going to be a good coach year after year now. You probably think Muslims are peaceful people after 1,400 years of consistently being violent.

---

Ignoring the completely unnecessary religious/political nonsense that has no place in a college football discussion, this would be a valid point if there weren't actual variables that lend credence to some level of increased optimism -- namely the addition of an accomplished defensive coordinator and a bunch of proven commodities on the D-line.

If we were running out the exact same staff and roster that went 5-7 last year, I'd be right there with you in the pit of hopeless despair. But because of the changes made in the offseason, I'm willing to take a wait-and-see approach ... for the rest of this season anyway.

I'm still expecting 6-6 or 7-5, which wouldn't be enough to justify bringing Aranda back for another season, but I'll leave open the possibility that dramatically improved defense could lead to significant improvement in the Big 12, where only Tech pays enough to acquire top-flight talent.

---

I'm usually in line with what you post, but I don't share the optimism, since CDA is still on the sidelines. Our team has probably more talent than last year, but when a head coach has zero feel for decision making in key situations, that probably results in at least 2 losses he should not have had. He's so focused on analytics that he didn't read the boiler plate language last week. Analytics may tell you to go for it, but the underlying factors that your D was playing well and the QB has one leg-I guess he paid no attention to that.

His mechanical way of doing things with no attention to either the minute details or even major details like clock management are the reason I am pessimistic overall. I hope my pessimistic attitude is proven wrong.

---

If he fails, he fails, and we'll have a new coach next year. But before our late-season collapse last year had me dejected and ready to move on, I said I'd like to see Dave fire himself as DC, hire a proven replacement, let the coordinators and position coaches handle the Xs and Os and instruction and focus on being more of a CEO/culture czar type of head coach.

Like everyone else, I was disappointed and angry when he was brought back. But since he was, I'm willing to watch one more "prove it" season with that basic arrangement in place. I came into this season with no expectations -- I don't think I posted here this offseason more than once or twice -- and my expectations remain modest (somewhere between five and seven wins).

But I really like this staff. And after that opener, I can see a path where we get to eight-plus wins and have a generally enjoyable season. That's all I can really hope for in a lame duck season most have predicted to go pretty poorly.

I'll let it play out. If we look good, I'll say it, and if we look bad, I'll say it. If Dave does something I disagree with, I'll certainly speak up. But I didn't see anything Saturday that tells me this team is incapable of competing in the Big 12. So I'll maintain the same "wait and see" approach I've had since this summer.

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I'm with you. 2024 was an enjoyable season, and I think this team may be good enough to right the ship. and get to 8 or more wins.

I had no expectations before the season and would not have been surprised at a lopsided loss, but what I saw on Saturday gives me hope we could have a fun season and hopefully establish an upward trajectory in the program again.