The stats that mattered against the Duke Blue Devils

On a torching hot Saturday afternoon in Waco (at least in the student section), the Bears seemed lost for the first half of play as they fell to the Duke Blue Devils 40-27.

Anyone watching the game could tell you that the Bears were simply outplayed. However, looking at the box score, the teams were fairly even.

The Bears had 400 total yards while the Blue Devils had 399. Baylor's two quarterback system produced 96 more passing yards than the Blue Devils with 270, but were out gained on the ground by 95 yards as the Blue Devils ran for 225 yards. Baylor even had one first down and a higher third down conversion rate than the Blue Devils.

If someone would look at those stats in an isolated manner, they would say it would’ve been a much closer game than it actually was. So, what went wrong? In this game, two stats in particular caught my eye. 

First, the Bears committed two crucial turnovers while the defense wasn’t able to get a turnover of their own.

The first turnover came early in the game with 9:27 still remaining in the first quarter. The Bears had driven down the field on their opening drive but missed a 44-yard field goal that would have given them an early 3-0 lead. The Blue Devils then punted on their first possesion.

It was still scoreless and the Bears had a second opporutnity to grab control of the game while the offense was showing the ability to move the ball with success. Sophomore back John Lovett then fumbled after receiving a 10-yard pass from Brewer on Baylor’s 18-yard line, giving the ball to Duke in prime territory at the 34. That set up a quick three play drive that ended with a touchdown for Duke, snagging all the neutral momentum that Baylor had left in the air.

The second turnover came at the other end of the spectrum with only 3:39 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Bears had scored a touchdown on the last drive and then held the Blue Devils to a field goal. Down 33-20, there was still an ample amount of time to mount a comeback, but they would need to be perfect and they needed a touchdown. Instead, senior Jalan McClendon threw an interception to Leonard Johnson who took full advantage and ran it back for a touchdown for the Blue Devils.

All of the hopes of a comeback were instantly lost.

What’s so significant about these turnovers? Not only were they both during points of the game where Baylor had the ability to capture momentum, but they each led to quick or immediate Duke touchdowns. They weren't just turnovers, but confidence killers.

Second, the Bears had five penalties for 44 yards, while the Blue Devils played an abnormally perfect game in the statistical category.

More importantly, the Bears had a few drive-killing penalties.

On their first drive of the game, the Bears were steamrolling down the field. On a 2nd and 11 on Duke’s 30-yard line, Brewer got the offense back ahead of the sticks to a more reasonable 3rd and 9, but a holding penalty pushed them back. This shot the momentum of the drive and the Bears ended up missing a field goal attempt after having to face a 2nd and long challenge.

The next crucial penalty came with the Bears down 14-0 on their own 18-yard line, facing a 3rd and 19. Charlie Brewer completed a pass to Chris Platt for 21 yards, electrifying the crowd and giving the Bears the spark they were looking for. However, it was another holding penalty that shut down the momentum. Head coach Matt Rhule called out the ref, saying it was “straight robbery.”

The BlueDevils would go on to make a field goal on their next drive.

Like the turnovers, these penalties came at times in the game where Baylor was building momentum. Their opportunities to capitalize were shot down and made a big impact on the scoreboard.

As was the case in 2017, you can easily point to specific plays in the game and identify them as key factors in the loss. Will they be corrected at some point? That's the hope. 

The Bears will have a tremendous opportunity to bounce back from this game next week at home against Kansas.