How's real estate doing in waco after the stock market collapse?

6,909 Views | 68 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Edmond Bear
Weston Rogers
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Iron Claw said:

Will be interesting to see what prices do with interest rates increasing. Six months ago the average 30-year mortgage rate was 2.65%, today it's about 5.25%. That's about a $450 increase in monthly payment on a $300k mortgage, or an extra $162k over 30 years. That may discourage a number of folks.
A 5 or 7 year ARM is the way to go right now if conventional... Still getting rates in the low/mid 4's and can refinance to a 30 year during the 5 or 7 year term when the feds inevitably go back to 0% rates and mortgage rates plummet again or sell the property as many people don't stay in homes more than 7 years.
Bexar Pitts
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Weston Rogers said:

Iron Claw said:

Will be interesting to see what prices do with interest rates increasing. Six months ago the average 30-year mortgage rate was 2.65%, today it's about 5.25%. That's about a $450 increase in monthly payment on a $300k mortgage, or an extra $162k over 30 years. That may discourage a number of folks.
A 5 or 7 year ARM is the way to go right now if conventional... Still getting rates in the low/mid 4's and can refinance to a 30 year during the 5 or 7 year term when the feds inevitably go back to 0% rates and mortgage rates plummet again or sell the property as many people don't stay in homes more than 7 years.
You may very well be correct..This morning I'm seeing the Overnight Fed Funds rate at .83..A year ago it was .06. I'm wondering if it continues much higher, how will Govt. fund their massive debt load? For that reason alone, it may come down again hard after a short period of time. Guess anything is possible nowadays, but I tend to agree with you.
beerman
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PartyBear said:

For those who are saying you hope that it isnt more of the same going in on the 250 acre tract at 340 west bound and north bound 35, what exactly is it you are hoping for that is different? I would imagine this is more retail and restaurants if that is what you mean by more of the same.
IMO we don't need more chain restaurants, we need more local/regional options.

We don't need more "box" retailers, we need more specialty stores.

We need more high-mid to high-end housing, ie, brownstones, zero lots and starter opportunities. The entry for young people in this market are astronomical given starting salaries in the area have not risen (my kid was offered 3 jobs out of school with a QBA degree, the Waco offer while flattering, was $27k less than the 2 DFW offers).

We don't need more places were a family of four can go for 2 hours and spend $100 on entertainment, ie, Top Golf, bowling/arcades etc.

I am not criticizing what we have, our growth has been impressive, its just time to create more of a planned city where we could seriously compete for tech, aero and other more sophisticated employers. COW has made leaps and bounds, but we have a long way to go.
STxBear81
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Isnt Amazon or Google opening in Waco soon? what is the expected annual income for those jobs?
Iron Claw
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What is a QBA degree?

I have seen the issue of limited entry-level housing in other areas. The problem is that the profit margin, according to a developer I know, is not as high on those homes. In my area the local chamber of commerce started a development for entry level homes by building out the infrastructure, then selling lots to builders with the agreement that the homes would be sold within a certain price range. The lots were snapped up by several builders/developers who contracted with buyers at that certain price point. In an effort to increase their profit margin, they then offered a basic "trim" package at the agreed upon price, but offered upgraded packages that increased the price, much to the chamber of commerce's chagrin. The homes ended up costing the buyers thousands more than the contracted price, up to 20-25k above the price point required by the chamber of commerce.

(The basic package was pretty ugly stuff, so I would venture to guess less than 10% were built out with that package.)
4th and Inches
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We grew houses too big.. we dont need a bathroom for every bedroom, 2 eating spaces and 2-3 living spaces.

A 1200-1700 sq ft 3/2 is a good size to live in and reasonably priced.

Trying to buy and live in a 2800-3500 sq ft house in todays market will be tough for alot of people.
Coke Bear
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Iron Claw said:

What is a QBA degree?
Quantitative Business Analysis?
Fre3dombear
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BornAgain said:

i just woke up from a nap....are we in a depression?


Wait till SPX is 3500 before end of September
Fre3dombear
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beerman said:

PartyBear said:

For those who are saying you hope that it isnt more of the same going in on the 250 acre tract at 340 west bound and north bound 35, what exactly is it you are hoping for that is different? I would imagine this is more retail and restaurants if that is what you mean by more of the same.
IMO we don't need more chain restaurants, we need more local/regional options.

We don't need more "box" retailers, we need more specialty stores.

We need more high-mid to high-end housing, ie, brownstones, zero lots and starter opportunities. The entry for young people in this market are astronomical given starting salaries in the area have not risen (my kid was offered 3 jobs out of school with a QBA degree, the Waco offer while flattering, was $27k less than the 2 DFW offers).

We don't need more places were a family of four can go for 2 hours and spend $100 on entertainment, ie, Top Golf, bowling/arcades etc.

I am not criticizing what we have, our growth has been impressive, its just time to create more of a planned city where we could seriously compete for tech, aero and other more sophisticated employers. COW has made leaps and bounds, but we have a long way to go.


Waco should really be working to create a data center presence
Coke Bear
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Fre3dombear said:


Waco should really be working to create a data center presence
About 20 years ago, the Chamber brought in a consultant to help with the growth of the area. (IIRC, they helped Austin worked with Austin prior.) They did their research and stated that Waco isn't going to get a Dell or Apple or anything of the like. Waco knew this, of course. Waco wanted some of the Tier 2 suppliers of this industry, but realistically, they didn't see it happening with our labor force.

They did recommend pursuing aviation. We already had Ram, L3, and few other small companies. We have a few others now: FreeFlight and Battlespace, but other than SpaceX, we haven't hit that homerun in that industry.

What Waco had going for it was a great deal of cheap land and a low standard of living. This economy has adjusted for that.

As Waco has matured and it's reputation has bettered over the last decade, we could be prime for another homerun, but it will take a great deal of effort and concessions from the city/county.
Bexar Pitts
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Coke Bear said:

Fre3dombear said:


Waco should really be working to create a data center presence
About 20 years ago, the Chamber brought in a consultant to help with the growth of the area. (IIRC, they helped Austin worked with Austin prior.) They did their research and stated that Waco isn't going to get a Dell or Apple or anything of the like. Waco knew this, of course. Waco wanted some of the Tier 2 suppliers of this industry, but realistically, they didn't see it happening with our labor force.

They did recommend pursuing aviation. We already had Ram, L3, and few other small companies. We have a few others now: FreeFlight and Battlespace, but other than SpaceX, we haven't hit that homerun in that industry.

What Waco had going for it was a great deal of cheap land and a low standard of living. This economy has adjusted for that.

As Waco has matured and it's reputation has bettered over the last decade, we could be prime for another homerun, but it will take a great deal of effort and concessions from the city/county.
Waco does have one inescapable asset..Location..
Bexar Pitts
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Fre3dombear said:

beerman said:

PartyBear said:

For those who are saying you hope that it isnt more of the same going in on the 250 acre tract at 340 west bound and north bound 35, what exactly is it you are hoping for that is different? I would imagine this is more retail and restaurants if that is what you mean by more of the same.
IMO we don't need more chain restaurants, we need more local/regional options.

We don't need more "box" retailers, we need more specialty stores.

We need more high-mid to high-end housing, ie, brownstones, zero lots and starter opportunities. The entry for young people in this market are astronomical given starting salaries in the area have not risen (my kid was offered 3 jobs out of school with a QBA degree, the Waco offer while flattering, was $27k less than the 2 DFW offers).

We don't need more places were a family of four can go for 2 hours and spend $100 on entertainment, ie, Top Golf, bowling/arcades etc.

I am not criticizing what we have, our growth has been impressive, its just time to create more of a planned city where we could seriously compete for tech, aero and other more sophisticated employers. COW has made leaps and bounds, but we have a long way to go.


Waco should really be working to create a data center presence
Temple/Bell County scored when they announced META was going to build a data center in their backyard. I don't know how/if the recent market cap haircut that Facebook has experienced will affect those plans, nor the rise in interest rates. I do believe it's a feather in Temple's cap to have landed that deal to begin with.
Coke Bear
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Bexar Pitts said:

Waco does have one inescapable asset..Location..

Absolutely.
Conveniently located between Dallas and Austin along the I-35 corridor and Hwy 6 going to Houston. It one of the reasons that Coca-Cola choose Waco back in '94. The numbers actually said that south of Dallas would be perfect, but they got an amazing deal on the old Levi-Straus building and land. They filled and expanded the plant several times. Of course, it's been 15+ years since I've been in the building.
CorsicanaBear
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Giant data centers have very few permanent jobs per dollar cost or square feet in the facility. The actual operators are all remote and the permanent local employees are facilities management types plus a few techies in case something breaks and needs to be touched. If something big and bad breaks they ship in contractors. At some data centers there are no techies at all.

Local governments like it because they don't have to beef up road infrastructure to support data center activities and they can represent a huge number on the tax base (unless they gave it away to get the deal in the first place). Cost of electricity, land and taxes are the driving factors in location selection.
Bexar Pitts
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Coke Bear said:

Bexar Pitts said:

Waco does have one inescapable asset..Location..

Absolutely.
Conveniently located between Dallas and Austin along the I-35 corridor and Hwy 6 going to Houston. It one of the reasons that Coca-Cola choose Waco back in '94. The numbers actually said that south of Dallas would be perfect, but they got an amazing deal on the old Levi-Straus building and land. They filled and expanded the plant several times. Of course, it's been 15+ years since I've been in the building.
Back in 1925, a young talented visionary founded a freight company here in Waco to move goods between Waco and Dallas. That company was Central Freight Lines and his name was W.W. Callan. Right place ...right time...His extraordinary business acumen and plain old hard work ethic built the most successful intrastate trucking company that ever existed..Waco should have a place in it's heart for this great Company and the people who built it..All of them..The employees of the original Central WERE Central..Times changed, and as often happens, so does the Company..I tip my hat every time I pass the location on Waco Drive, and salute the people who contributed so much to this iconic brand.
Bexar Pitts
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CorsicanaBear said:

Giant data centers have very few permanent jobs per dollar cost or square feet in the facility. The actual operators are all remote and the permanent local employees are facilities management types plus a few techies in case something breaks and needs to be touched. If something big and bad breaks they ship in contractors. At some data centers there are no techies at all.

Local governments like it because they don't have to beef up road infrastructure to support data center activities and they can represent a huge number on the tax base (unless they gave it away to get the deal in the first place). Cost of electricity, land and taxes are the driving factors in location selection.
Here's a presser on the META Temple facility. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/meta-to-open-hyperscale-data-center-in-temple-texas-301514530.html
Nguyen One Soon
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CorsicanaBear said:

Giant data centers have very few permanent jobs per dollar cost or square feet in the facility. The actual operators are all remote and the permanent local employees are facilities management types plus a few techies in case something breaks and needs to be touched. If something big and bad breaks they ship in contractors. At some data centers there are no techies at all.

Local governments like it because they don't have to beef up road infrastructure to support data center activities and they can represent a huge number on the tax base (unless they gave it away to get the deal in the first place). Cost of electricity, land and taxes are the driving factors in location selection.
Reminds me of the makeup of the plant of the future, a man, a dog and a machine. The machine is there to do the work, the man to feed the dog, and the dog's job is to be sure the man doesn't touch the machine.
CorsicanaBear
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Yep. 900k square feet. 100 jobs. About right. 9k sf per job. Most of the jobs will be to keep the AC going, the electricity flowing, and the roof from leaking. There will be some tech jobs, keeping the bits flowing and managing other contractors. They will be good jobs, but low for the footprint.
Bexar Pitts
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CorsicanaBear said:

Yep. 900k square feet. 100 jobs. About right. 9k sf per job. Most of the jobs will be to keep the AC going, the electricity flowing, and the roof from leaking. There will be some tech jobs, keeping the bits flowing and managing other contractors. They will be good jobs, but low for the footprint.
Yep. Appears a lot of future business centers will reflect less staff than in prior models. Same with other types of industries ,too. Grocery stores may lose personnel as automation/robotics moves forward. At least,as you mentioned in an earlier post, the local taxing entities could possibly see their revenues increase substantially...depending on (as you also stated) what was conceeded to get the facility.
1outawayBear
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4th and Inches said:

We grew houses too big.. we dont need a bathroom for every bedroom, 2 eating spaces and 2-3 living spaces.

A 1200-1700 sq ft 3/2 is a good size to live in and reasonably priced.

Trying to buy and live in a 2800-3500 sq ft house in todays market will be tough for alot of people.
LOL we are a family of three and I couldn't fathom living in less than 2500 SF. Love our 3200 SF house with my media room. We lived in a 1250 SF townhouse and it was way way way too small for us.
Funky Town Bear
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1outawayBear said:

4th and Inches said:

We grew houses too big.. we dont need a bathroom for every bedroom, 2 eating spaces and 2-3 living spaces.

A 1200-1700 sq ft 3/2 is a good size to live in and reasonably priced.

Trying to buy and live in a 2800-3500 sq ft house in todays market will be tough for alot of people.
LOL we are a family of three and I couldn't fathom living in less than 2500 SF. Love our 3200 SF house with my media room. We lived in a 1250 SF townhouse and it was way way way too small for us.
We live in 2500 as a family of three and we look forward to downsizing the actual house footprint and upsizing the land size. It will be nice to live somewhere that has more bears than people eventually.
cowboycwr
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I know the housing market is still tough right now if you ware wanting to buy. Seems like there just aren't many selling and the ones that are go fast.

In Robinson they are building lots of new houses right next to the schools. Empty lots between older houses are even being bought to build new homes.

and yet I find it odd that in my subdivision there are two empty lots that never got built on and no signs have gone up to sell those lots/ build. And it is a newer subdivision so I find it odd that an empty lot between 50+ year old houses is being sold for a new house but empty lots next to houses less than 20 years old aren't being sold.
boxster
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cowboycwr said:

I know the housing market is still tough right now if you ware wanting to buy. Seems like there just aren't many selling and the ones that are go fast.

In Robinson they are building lots of new houses right next to the schools. Empty lots between older houses are even being bought to build new homes.

and yet I find it odd that in my subdivision there are two empty lots that never got built on and no signs have gone up to sell those lots/ build. And it is a newer subdivision so I find it odd that an empty lot between 50+ year old houses is being sold for a new house but empty lots next to houses less than 20 years old aren't being sold.
Probably won't happen until the original owners of those empty lots die, and the kids sell.
Bexar Pitts
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cowboycwr said:

I know the housing market is still tough right now if you ware wanting to buy. Seems like there just aren't many selling and the ones that are go fast.

In Robinson they are building lots of new houses right next to the schools. Empty lots between older houses are even being bought to build new homes.

and yet I find it odd that in my subdivision there are two empty lots that never got built on and no signs have gone up to sell those lots/ build. And it is a newer subdivision so I find it odd that an empty lot between 50+ year old houses is being sold for a new house but empty lots next to houses less than 20 years old aren't being sold.
Those empty lots could simply be owned by the folks that built the house 20 years ago. Some people like to own adjoining lots for all kinds of reasons....besides being a good investment. :-) MCAD website could possibly answer that question..
Booboo Bear
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beerman said:

beerman said:

WacoKelly83 said:

https://wacotrib.com/business/local/mike-copeland-land-sold-at-loop-340-i-35-almost-a-million-jobs-open-in/article_8f8afc24-d31c-11ec-a289-3bc0b5cb887b.html#tracking-source=most-popular-homepage

Local real estate agent Bland Cromwell has brought home so many big real estate deals, he has probably lost count. He was instrumental in getting Allergan here, and Mars Wrigley and Caterpillar, finding users for the old General Tire & Rubber Co. plant, and assembling land for what became Richland Mall.

When Cromwell talks, people listen. So imagine the surprise when during an interview Saturday he said he recently closed the biggest deal, dollar-wise, in his 46-year career that began at Jim Stewart Realtors, and continues at Coldwell Banker Commercial Jim Stewart Realtors. That news turns heads.

Cromwell said a Dallas-based investor bought 255 acres at Loop 340 and Interstate 35. The asking price was $25 million, but the sales price remains a secret for now. Cromwell calls it the best unimproved corner on Interstate 35 between Laredo and Minneapolis, Minnesota, with potential to accommodate a mixed-use development including retail, dining and multi-family.

Cromwell said he has pursued a user since 2013 for another investment group. Potential deals bubbled to the surface, then dissolved. Mark Schulman announced in 2019 he would place there an entertainment venue called Movie Bowl Grille, including an eight-screen movie theater, bowling lanes, arcade games and a restaurant spread over 90,000 square feet. But that project made headlines as Houston-based NewQuest Properties was popping eyes with plans for a development almost right across the interstate, between Loop 340 and New Road. That development, Cottonwood Creek Market, now has Cinemark, Topgolf and Main Event locations, and building permits have been issued for an apartment complex.






My guess is the Dallas-based investor is a local……would be exciting as his group's vision would be something new for Waco and would create value for residents, not just the tourists that fly through every week.


Heard today who buyer is….not whom I expected. My source still feels he will do something unique with the property but the report that he has "Waco connections" is pretty damn loose.
Steve Martin?
Willie Nelson?
Booboo Bear
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1outawayBear said:

4th and Inches said:

We grew houses too big.. we dont need a bathroom for every bedroom, 2 eating spaces and 2-3 living spaces.

A 1200-1700 sq ft 3/2 is a good size to live in and reasonably priced.

Trying to buy and live in a 2800-3500 sq ft house in todays market will be tough for alot of people.
LOL we are a family of three and I couldn't fathom living in less than 2500 SF. Love our 3200 SF house with my media room. We lived in a 1250 SF townhouse and it was way way way too small for us.
When we were only a little younger, we were a family of 7 living in 1800sf. We were a close family, lol.

Now, with an empty nest about on us, 1800sf seems like way too much. Time goes too darn fast.

MrGolfguy
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Booboo Bear said:

beerman said:

beerman said:




My guess is the Dallas-based investor is a local……would be exciting as his group's vision would be something new for Waco and would create value for residents, not just the tourists that fly through every week.


Heard today who buyer is….not whom I expected. My source still feels he will do something unique with the property but the report that he has "Waco connections" is pretty damn loose.
Steve Martin?
Willie Nelson?

No, I heard a partnership between Shannon Elizabeth & Jennifer Love Hewitt.
Well I ain't no greenhorn!!
4th and Inches
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Booboo Bear said:

1outawayBear said:

4th and Inches said:

We grew houses too big.. we dont need a bathroom for every bedroom, 2 eating spaces and 2-3 living spaces.

A 1200-1700 sq ft 3/2 is a good size to live in and reasonably priced.

Trying to buy and live in a 2800-3500 sq ft house in todays market will be tough for alot of people.
LOL we are a family of three and I couldn't fathom living in less than 2500 SF. Love our 3200 SF house with my media room. We lived in a 1250 SF townhouse and it was way way way too small for us.
When we were only a little younger, we were a family of 7 living in 1800sf. We were a close family, lol.

Now, with an empty nest about on us, 1800sf seems like way too much. Time goes too darn fast.


similar experience..
beerman
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Coke Bear said:

Iron Claw said:

What is a QBA degree?
Quantitative Business Analysis?


Yes. Should have said statistics….his school called it QBA and its BBA with a business-math emphasis. It's relevant because it's a slightly more acute discipline that larger markets are paying a little more for at the entry-level. Not the case here in Waco.
Funky Town Bear
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beerman said:

Coke Bear said:

Iron Claw said:

What is a QBA degree?
Quantitative Business Analysis?


Yes. Should have said statistics….his school called it QBA and its BBA with a business-math emphasis. It's relevant because it's a slightly more acute discipline that larger markets are paying a little more for at the entry-level. Not the case here in Waco.
That will be a fantastic degree for his career. Wish I had done something like that instead of a pure math degree back in the day.
Coke Bear
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beerman said:

Coke Bear said:

Iron Claw said:

What is a QBA degree?
Quantitative Business Analysis?


Yes. Should have said statistics….his school called it QBA and its BBA with a business-math emphasis. It's relevant because it's a slightly more acute discipline that larger markets are paying a little more for at the entry-level. Not the case here in Waco.
QBA was one of my two majors. The other was Management. Obtaining that nearly 30 years ago and living in Waco, I never really got a chance to use it.

Best of luck to him.
Fre3dombear
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Fre3dombear said:

BornAgain said:

i just woke up from a nap....are we in a depression?


Wait till SPX is 3500 before end of September


Getting close. Likely one more gasp of hopium and then Katy bar the door. Unless the fed capitulates before September. I think they'll want to wait as long as possible to try to save Brandon
Fre3dombear
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Bexar Pitts said:

Coke Bear said:

Fre3dombear said:


Waco should really be working to create a data center presence
About 20 years ago, the Chamber brought in a consultant to help with the growth of the area. (IIRC, they helped Austin worked with Austin prior.) They did their research and stated that Waco isn't going to get a Dell or Apple or anything of the like. Waco knew this, of course. Waco wanted some of the Tier 2 suppliers of this industry, but realistically, they didn't see it happening with our labor force.

They did recommend pursuing aviation. We already had Ram, L3, and few other small companies. We have a few others now: FreeFlight and Battlespace, but other than SpaceX, we haven't hit that homerun in that industry.

What Waco had going for it was a great deal of cheap land and a low standard of living. This economy has adjusted for that.

As Waco has matured and it's reputation has bettered over the last decade, we could be prime for another homerun, but it will take a great deal of effort and concessions from the city/county.
Waco does have one inescapable asset..Location..


Ding ding.
Edmond Bear
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Coke Bear said:

beerman said:

Coke Bear said:

Iron Claw said:

What is a QBA degree?
Quantitative Business Analysis?


Yes. Should have said statistics….his school called it QBA and its BBA with a business-math emphasis. It's relevant because it's a slightly more acute discipline that larger markets are paying a little more for at the entry-level. Not the case here in Waco.
QBA was one of my two majors. The other was Management. Obtaining that nearly 30 years ago and living in Waco, I never really got a chance to use it.

Best of luck to him.

I was similar. Had an Operations Management and QBA double major. Loved it and it has been super useful to me for the last 30 years. I got into Manufacturing and Demand Management practice and then consulting. So, I've used alot of forecasting systems that use regression, monte carlo simulations, and a variety of statistical models. Today, the statistics background helps me work with AI companies to design new systems and functions.

For entry level, QBA will help with Business Intelligence and Analytics. AI has created the concept of business focused Data Scientists. Understanding how to collect and classify data - and then DO something with it should be a QBA major's (or whatever they call it now) dream.

Sorry for the tangent.


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