After this week, the Big 12 regular season will be almost halfway over - predict the champion's record at the end of the season:

If a team is 14-4 they win it outright
13-5 then at least a couple teams share the title

Well, KSU is sitting at 6-1. I can honestly see them going 6-5 to finish conference play, maybe 7-4.

So I think 13-5 wins it outright, and 12-6 might be good enough. With no truly dominant team in the league this year, you're going to have 6 very solid teams beat each other up quite a bit.

KenPom's statistical prediction right now is the conference winner finishes 11-7. I don't think it'll be quite that dramatic, but just shows you how much teams get beat up on a game to game basis, and how little margin exists.

It's obvious the league's competitiveness has led directly to three different Big 12 teams making the final (and two winning it) in the last three years. But a part of me wonders if there's a threshold or a limit where it moves from becoming a singular strength to an impediment come March. That's 18 games over two straight months of pure grind, every game, no matchups to catch your breath and reorg, every one an absolute war. I

It obviously strengthens you more than anything, but it has to be exhausting by game 18. No other league in the nation even comes close.

Few comments last night regarding this exact point. There are no bottom feeders in this league - no games to "rest up".....if the league wants to do well in the Tournament (they should push up the B12 Tournament so players can get extra rest.

And yet Lunardi (with all caveats about his irrelevance acknowledged) now has two SEC teams as #1 seeds and no Big 12 teams. There's a realistic chance this year that Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee can feast on some pretty bad teams to coast to 1 seeds. At least coast relative to BU/KU/KSU/UT/ISU/TCU.

As far as the conference tournament goes, interesting that both Tech and Baylor were out before the final in years where they appeared in the NC game.

K St currently 6-1, so to get to 13-5 K St would go 7-4 the rest of the way? It seems like they COULD do that, but they could also go 4-7. They could also go 8-3 and of course do even better, but I don't think they will.

So, can Texas or Iowa St go 8-3? Maybe, but I don't see them doing better than that. Seems like 13-5 is the number for K St, Texas or Ia St to hit, and if they can't do it then there will probably be multiple teams at 12-6.

Baylor will have to play out of their minds (8-2) to finish 13-5. I don't see that happening. I think a 12-6 finish and tie for Big XII champion could be our best scenario.

If Alabama or Tenn lose 2 - 3 and win the conference and go deep in the conference tourney. I could see that. Not both but one. While the SEC teams aren't that good it is still D1 athletes.

If Houston loses another game they should drop from contention.

I look at it a little differently. The "bottom" of the B12 is really dangerous going forward.

Tech is not going to go 0 for, and they've got many teams at the top of B12 at their place still.

WVU is probably not going to end the season with only 2 wins. Same at Morgantown.

I am very glad we already won those away games.

And then it's basically 50/50 between the top half of the league when they play each other.

So KSU ending at 10-8 is not crazy at all.

TCU and ISU are a significant injury away from going on a losing streak.

At least one of the surprise teams will return to earth some.

parch said:

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KenPom's statistical prediction right now is the conference winner finishes 11-7. I don't think it'll be quite that dramatic, but just shows you how much teams get beat up on a game to game basis, and how little margin exists.

It's obvious the league's competitiveness has led directly to three different Big 12 teams making the final (and two winning it) in the last three years. But a part of me wonders if there's a threshold or a limit where it moves from becoming a singular strength to an impediment come March. That's 18 games over two straight months of pure grind, every game, no matchups to catch your breath and reorg, every one an absolute war. I

It obviously strengthens you more than anything, but it has to be exhausting by game 18. No other league in the nation even comes close.

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Thanks for sharing, parch wow that is some serious cannibalizing within the league. As many have pointed out, the league is a gauntlet this year. It should be a fun second half to the regular season over the next month and a half.

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TCU and ISU are a significant injury away from going on a losing streak.

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Lampkin out tonight.

ursamajor said:

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And yet Lunardi (with all caveats about his irrelevance acknowledged) now has two SEC teams as #1 seeds and no Big 12 teams. There's a realistic chance this year that Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee can feast on some pretty bad teams to coast to 1 seeds. At least coast relative to BU/KU/KSU/UT/ISU/TCU.

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Interesting that this is the exact opposite of the logic applied to the SEC in football. They get the benefit of the doubt for the playoff because they are the hardest conference, and their one loss teams are not dinged as much.

The SEC is tough to get a handle on. Alabama looks great. I think they could win it all. Tennessee has the win against Kansas in Nov, but who hasn't beaten Kansas? Outside of that it's a pretty bare resume. But Kansas St should be the third number 1 at this point. If Kansas had their resume, is there any question they'd be #1 overall?

No way on earth Kansas State loses more than 2 more games so the winner of the Big 12 will finish 15-3 since they will win it. They already won at Texas and Baylor and the 1 loss was at TCU. The only conference games they may lose are tonight in Ames and next week at Allen Fieldhouse.

I'll take that wager… they'll lose next week at KU to fall to 6-3 in league play

I know it's a crazy long shot, especially coming days after our trip to Lawrence, but I believe we can win in Manhattan.