Great info. So not statistically irrelevant

This team needs all the help they can get

Stefano DiMera said:

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We've made the big time when people think little ole scrubby Baylor gets favoritism..it makes absolutely no difference if we're a 2 or 3..but I think Marquette will get it. We've got more Quad 1 wins..but they beat us head to head and won a tournament championship so that's a tie breaker to me.

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The stats suggest otherwise regarding making no difference

It's an easier path as a 2 for sure. The sample brackets I've seen have a few really weak regions with the other two completely loaded. Being the weakest 2 puts us in one of those over stacked regions. Think teams like Duke, UConn, Arkansas, Random 10 big east team. Then of course you still have a 3/4 (depending if UConn is 3 or 4) and probably Alabama (since Ku can't be matched with us if we got it)

3 in weakest region wouldn't be the end of the world this year.

Only till Elite 8 according to those numbers..in the first or second round those differences in numbers I don't think are statistically significant.

We're not going to be a 2..in fact if I was on the committee we'd be a 4..I grew up on the metric on how you were playing in your last 10 games which they've moved away from.

But are we likely to be in the weakest region? I would think probably not.

Theoretically yes, but knowing our previous draws and the big 12 shuffling for the top 4 seeds probably not.

We've had incredibly difficult draws the last two years so I expect it to probably continue.

I agree would still prefer a 2 but a 3 wouldn't end our chances to make a run. Trying to remain optimistic

That's what I thought. Thanks

Just a guess, but

1 Seeds
East - Alabama
Midwest - Kansas
West - Tennessee
South - Texas

2 Seeds
South - Purdue
West - UCLA
Midwest - U Conn
East - Baylor

People see that Baylor is 2-4 in the last 6 games, and question a 2 seeding. Hopefully, the Committee will look at the entire season.

They will. But they may give more weight to the end of the season.

Lunardi's last update before selection:

Swapped out BU and Marquette as the 2/3 with Purdue as the 1. BU paired with 14 Kennesaw St, with 11 seed play-in NCSt/ArizSt (the Herb Sendek grudge match) and our old pal St Mary's looming.

That's actually a great draw for BU! Doubt it happens that way. But it would be hard to complain with those match ups.

Lunardi puts us in the East in NYC (last time we went there it didn't turn out too well). Also in our bracket are 4 Tennessee, 5 IowaSt, 7 Northwestern, 8 Memphis and 9 WV.

Correct but WV, ISU, Memphis. Tenn are all the same side. Northwestern would be an interesting matchup

pic.twitter.com/uXNjrZvUpf

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 12, 2023

The bracketologist I follow has us as a 3 seed..and if Princeton beats Yale today.. Princeton playing us...this board would come unglued...if Yale wins..he says they're a 13 seed and we get UCSB.

The 4 schools I would prefer not to see beside our name today are: Colgate, Vermont, Charleston and Oral Roberts. It's not that I don't think we can beat them, it's just that they all represent potential matchup issues with higher probabilities to beat us than others from what I've seen of them this year. Any of the other mid-majors that are usually in the #14 or #15 spot? Bring it on. ORU should be seeded higher than a 14 of 15, so I don't think they would be a first round opponent.

Tennessee would have scared me in the 2nd round because of their D and length, until they lost Ziegler who was the PG heart and soul of their ball movement. They never had a good offense, but Ziegler made the others serviceable. They have looked like a ship without a rudder since Ziegler was lost for the season. NC State doesn't throw any fear into me. In fact, I'd almost rather have an ACC or SEC school in the 2nd round than a Big East school.

I guess we'll find it in a few hours!

Everybody can chill out. Lunardi has us as a 3 seed.

Princeton comes back to beat Yale.

whitetrash said:

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Lunardi puts us in the East in NYC (last time we went there it didn't turn out too well). Also in our bracket are 4 Tennessee, 5 IowaSt, 7 Northwestern, 8 Memphis and 9 WV.

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I don't think we want to play Iowa State a 4th time this year. hJowever, WBB played Aggies 4 times in 2011.

They studied this, by the way. There is NO correlation between how a team plays late in the season and how it plays in the tournament. You can look it up! Also they want teams playing good games in Nov and Dec, so it's an added incentive that helps the sport.

— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) March 12, 2023

This is kinda interesting. I'll see if I can find the report and post it.

Also: Every game counts the same, whether it's early November or today. The committee used to have a category for last 10 games, then it went to last 12. Now it doesn't exit. Remember that when talking about conference tourney results.

— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) March 12, 2023

Last minute moves by Lunardi:

Kennesaw St drops to 15 v Marquette
UCSB at 14 v BU
MissSt replaces last 4 in at the 11
Duke at 4 on other side of regional with possible 2nd round v TCU

It is.. but it won't happen. We are due for a relatively easy draw though after the last few years. Getting best 3 might make it possible. I don't want to see Duke, Ark, Conn (if seeded below 3), Missouri, Indiana with lower seeds. Teams starting to really play well or are a bad matchup for us. The false optimism is coming back. I could see this team making a run with the right mix.

I actually would not mind seeing Iowa St again. Terrible matchup and totally snakebit but man if they can't find it to play the hardest game they've every played if it happened... we shouldn't even be there. We've failed the toughness test a few times this year. I just want to see some fight here.

Don't think Oral Roberts will be that low. But honestly would not mind them. Their D is bad.. and they are smaller at guard. The length gives us trouble. Even if we devolved into a shootout (not a good plan in tourney play) think we would win that.

Getting a battered Tenn. would be interesting. Probably the weakest 4 considering the injury. Still very aggressive on D and poorer (high level) offensive teams tend to give us points no matter their rating. I probably liked Ucla the most before their huge injury. Don't think they can now so it opens it right back up.

No team this year can afford a key injury. Ucla possible but if say Sasser is hobbled Hou would be completely finished.. as we see in their current game.

Quinton said:

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It is.. but it won't happen. We are due for a relatively easy draw though after the last few years. Getting best 3 might make it possible. I don't want to see Duke, Ark, Conn (if seeded below 3), Missouri, Indiana with lower seeds. Teams starting to really play well or are a bad matchup for us. The false optimism is coming back. I could see this team making a run with the right mix.

I actually would not mind seeing Iowa St again. Terrible matchup and totally snakebit but man if they can't find it to play the hardest game they've every played if it happened... we shouldn't even be there. We've failed the toughness test a few times this year. I just want to see some fight here.

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That'd be like a baylor football team trying to beat tcu. Impossible

Seth Davis already picked us to lose first round..that's his bit now..

Stefano DiMera said:

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Seth Davis already picked us to lose first round..that's his bit now..

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A stopped clock is right twice a day. Seth Davis was right twice in the last 8 years (2015 and 2016).