Agreed but top ten defense would be great too.

Interesting point. Like most, I would have thought otherwise.

DanaDane said:

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Just so we're all on the same page, I know everyone immediately thinks of the defensive greatness of our Natty team and they were definitely above average. We had 2 great defenders in Vital and Mitchell. But for the record, as a team the Natty group didn't finish in the Top 20 KenPom or Torvik overall defensive metrics. Of course, who cares since we finished in the stat that matters -- National Champion.

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While this is true, we were Top 5 all season until our COVID pause, when ~70% of the team got the 'rona. After that, our defense and rotations suffered, and we really didn't get back to looking like ourselves until about halftime of the Villanova game in the Sweet 16.

That 5-8 game stretch where we weren't operating at peak levels tanked our defensive rating (on a relative basis, at least), and is why that team isn't looked at as an all-timer by advanced stats nerds.

DanaDane said:

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Just so we're all on the same page, I know everyone immediately thinks of the defensive greatness of our Natty team and they were definitely above average. We had 2 great defenders in Vital and Mitchell. But for the record, as a team the Natty group didn't finish in the Top 20 KenPom or Torvik overall defensive metrics. Of course, who cares since we finished in the stat that matters -- National Champion.

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A snapshot of February 14, 2021 shows that we were #3 O and #4 D in the midst of COVID cancellations before we wind up losing to KU and OkSt.

Barring that, Baylor finished with #2 and #22... Which is on the higher end of national champs in recent years.

Nonetheless, the odds are that the national champ is Top 15 in both. Right now, we are quite a ways away from that defensively.

Right now Arizona, Purdue, Marquette and Creighton are the 4 teams inside the top 15 in both Offense and Defense. Might take a look at the end of the year when filling out bracket.

Too early in the season for the numbers to have too much usefulness. 100 points scored on a scrub or holding a scrub under 40 skews too much.

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Too early in the season for the numbers to have too much usefulness. 100 points scored on a scrub or holding a scrub under 40 skews too much.

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Except Kenpom is all about adjusted efficiency... Meaning it takes the opponents into consideration.

Still, it is early so the data set continues to build and will iron out who really is predictively better

I prefer www.parsedsports.com to Kenpom. Their computer model has us at #9 with second best offense. Not sure what their adjustment is, but I like that their model incorporates spreads and makes picks against the spread. And it has a live bracket. As of today it has us losing to Arizona in the Elite 8. Projects us at 26-5 in the regular season. Go bears!