Yeah. Only 3 times in the last decade did that not hold true. Kansas, Baylor, and UCONN way back in '14 (weird championship for them ratings wise.)

Pull OU out and stick Kentucky in, and I would be highly confident the winner will likely come from 1 of those 12.
Kentucky is underrated because it's just now getting its actual bigs healthy enough to play. Bradshaw is gonna make a huge difference with them. I don't think they're Top 8 right now, but they are similar to us in that they have a high ceiling they may reach later on in the year as they continue to gel.

Karab said:

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And of those 12, only Arizona, Purdue, Marquette, and Creighton have a Top 15 O and D in Kenpom which is another virtual requirement for a national champ. And outside chance to UH and UConn at the moment.

The good thing is Kenpom continues to update, so hopefully Baylor can fix its defensive problems over the next 2.5 months.

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Yes, defense is our Achilles heel. We aren't going to shoot lights out every night. Defensive rebounding is driving me nuts. Giving up lots of 2nd chance opportunities. Hopefully that is an area of emphasis during this break.

Karab said:

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And of those 12, only Arizona, Purdue, Marquette, and Creighton have a Top 15 O and D in Kenpom which is another virtual requirement for a national champ. And outside chance to UH and UConn at the moment.

The good thing is Kenpom continues to update, so hopefully Baylor can fix its defensive problems over the next 2.5 months.

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Remember, against Marquette you are also battling the ghost of Chris Farley.

Go B12.

If the OP and this both hold true then that would eliminate BYU and bring it down to just 4 teams.

One of Purdue, Arizona, BYU, Houston, and Baylor will be crowned NATIONAL CHAMPIONS in April.🏆

Since the release of the NET, every national champion was ranked in the top 5 on December 15th.

These teams make up the current top 5. Who has the best odds?👀 pic.twitter.com/YHgBhqaGbM

— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) December 15, 2023

Think UConn, KU, Arizona, Purdue, BU, and longer shot of Marquette/Creighton from this list. Don't see the others winning it. Keep in mind BU also has higher upside than anyway else on that first list due to Walter, Missi, and Josh inevitably improving a ton over the next several months. Love as well.

Agree teams like UK and possibly Duke that get healthy and have high upside also have a shot. Of course when there aren't any very clear standouts (so far this year) college ball is unpredictable.

BYU is a paper tiger