Strength of Schedule

1,676 Views | 20 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by historian
LIB,MR BEARS
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Fre3dombear
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That win conf % is sometin
historian
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If I'm reading those correctly it doesn't make any sense. It says Houston has a 76% chance of winning the conference with Kansas has less than 3% chance? Really? Please tell me I miss reading that!
Quinton
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historian said:

If I'm reading those correctly it doesn't make any sense. It says Houston has a 76% chance of winning the conference with Kansas has less than 3% chance? Really? Please tell me I miss reading that!


We've debated this for a while. The metrics love Houston's pace and blowing out weak opponents (ultra efficiency).

This is simply projecting records based on those. Espns are largely junk anyway but other metrics lean heavily on these things.

We'll see how it plays out
historian
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Thanks
I can see how Houston is good and has a chance, despite two losses already. But I don't see Kansas, Baylor, etc practically eliminated from the realm of possibility. The metric that goes this is seriously flawed. Otherwise, the only explanation I can think of is that it's so early in the season, these things are worthless.
Quinton
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I disagree with some of their methods. There are a few known issues with the metics. I do not think there is some huge favorite in the conference. Nowhere near that projection.

Relative to the general field, they have Houston better than our championship team which is ridiculous of course.
DallasBear9902
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Quinton said:

historian said:

If I'm reading those correctly it doesn't make any sense. It says Houston has a 76% chance of winning the conference with Kansas has less than 3% chance? Really? Please tell me I miss reading that!


We've debated this for a while. The metrics love Houston's pace and blowing out weak opponents (ultra efficiency).

This is simply projecting records based on those. Espns are largely junk anyway but other metrics lean heavily on these things.

We'll see how it plays out

It is also a little bit circular, too. As Houston has the relatively easiest remaining SoS of the top B12 contenders it also has an easier pathway to winning the conference title. The imbalance of the B12 schedule this year is throwing these things off.
historian
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That makes sense
Quinton
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Yep, it is a bit circular.

One thing I know is teams cannot afford to lose many home games. Curious how it plays out.
historian
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Everyone still has 15 games to play before KC. A lot of change is going to happen in the next few weeks.
historian
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"For context, the combined record of Baylor's remaining opponents is 187-52 (.782).

Ouch."

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2024/01/15/look-all-14-big-12-basketball-teams-inside-top-16-of-remaining-strength-of-schedule/
vanillabryce
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For me the % to win is an indicator but to be taken with a grain of salt. You cannot underestimate the home court advantage of Phog Allen.

Also, the unbalanced schedule of the Big 12 this year will be a factor.
GoodOleBaylorLine
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So the team that has a losing record in conference and has yet to play the toughest teams is a lock to win the conference?

IowaBear
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It's everything to do with the unbalanced schedules. BU got shafted in that way. We play KU, Tx, BYU, TCU, Tech all twice.
And we drew WV and UCF two of the weaker B12 teams on the road. They did us zero favors with the schedule this year
GoodOleBaylorLine
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That's even worse. UH has an easier schedule and a losing record. I understand this is computer generated, but apply some common sense.
datboiquadzilla
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If we can take advantage of that schedule man we could be a top two seed come selection Sunday.
historian
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IowaBear said:

It's everything to do with the unbalanced schedules. BU got shafted in that way. We play KU, Tx, BYU, TCU, Tech all twice.
And we drew WV and UCF two of the weaker B12 teams on the road. They did us zero favors with the schedule this year

Wouldn't having the two weaker teams on the road be too our benefit? Road games are always tough, as OSU demonstrated. I would rather they be against weaker teams on occasion to give us a little bit of a break. We are still going to Lawrence, Austin, Ft Worth, Provo, & Lubbock (to close the season). I think I would rather have Morgantown this year than Ames, at least from that perspective.

Either way, the Big 12 is the ultimate MBB gauntlet regardless of where we play.
IowaBear
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I mean personally the weaker teams we only play once I'd prefer at home.
WV, KSU, UCF we only play once at all 3 are on the road.
Ultimately the league winner will be the one who wins the most road games and holds serve at home. We're 1-0 on the road going at least 1-1 this week (both road games) is critical. Somehow going 2-0 would be huge
wongobear
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IowaBear said:

I mean personally the weaker teams we only play once I'd prefer at home.
WV, KSU, UCF we only play once at all 3 are on the road.
Ultimately the league winner will be the one who wins the most road games and holds serve at home. We're 1-0 on the road going at least 1-1 this week (both road games) is critical. Somehow going 2-0 would be huge
The flip side is that we get OU, Houston, and Iowa St at home.
IowaBear
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Oh good!! I was thinking we played @ Houston!!
historian
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Going 2-0 this week would definitely be huge.
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