I am surprised how favored all the homes teams are this weekend on win probability. Assuming all home teams win the standings are below.



If the assumption holds, Houston and ISU are in a tie for 1st place, with Baylor and Tech 1/2 game behind. If KU wins over ISU, then Houston and KU are in first, and ISU will drop back with others at 4-3.

The win probability shows OU as the lowest home team win probability at around 63%; all other home teams are greater than 70%.

Losing the last two road games at KSU and UT was hard to swallow but didn't hurt us much in the broader landscape. This home game vs a very dangerous TCU team and all home games going forward are imperative wins.

I said it then and I'll continue to say it all season -- we really let one get away in Manhattan. This is just a very average Kansas St. team, road game or not. They are just so bad on offense. Defense is good, but as a team they are nowhere close to being really good.

I'll say this for Houston -- they are a team full of hard nosed players who go all out. If Big 12 refs continue to allow them to play aggressive, hard nosed D they are gonna be a highly difficult team to beat unless the opponent is shooting lights out. Hate to confess, but I thoroughly enjoy watching them play D.

100%, They aren't any good. I don't love when we always resort to the life in the big 12 line. It was on the road where they are infinitely better but it's not a strong group.

We dropped two road games that were just right there for the taking. Should be at minimum 4-1 and probably 5-0.

This!
The life in the B12 is a cop out. Those were 2 games BU should have won. 2 games where Bu is clearly the better and more talented team. Winning is never easy on the road. But that pants pissing in Manhattan should have never happened

Houston and ISU are the most dangerous team in the B12 imo. I'm actually hoping KU wins today against ISU because KU isn't near as good as seasons past

It may be a catchphrase..but that doesn't mean it's not true..

Ask Kansas about a trip to Orlando or Morgantown..or ask Houston about it's first 2 games in conference.

Everyone is gonna drop 3-4 games they 'should have' gotten. We're no more behind the chains than anyone.

That being said..I never was in the camp our last 2 games were crucial. Today is. HAVE to hold serve at home..cause as I said weeks ago..we ain't winning in Provo... Lubbock..or Lawrence.

Final score in Houston

UH 74
K State 52

I'll go on record right now at least 1 of KSU/TX won't make the dance. Wouldn't be shocked if both miss out. Neither has a strong OOC resume and I have doubts either finishes above .500 in the B12

Yep the officiating has allowed it so far. The bits I saw from the BYU game were a little ridiculous but you get away with things when you play aggressive. This isn't the nba. That game at Provo was the pivot game for them and they escaped with a win.

KU always seems to have someone step up just when I count them out. Furphy gives them so much more than Elmarko Jackson was giving them as a starter. He's actually a scoring threat and given his height he can challenge more for rebounds. Jackson is appropriately coming off the bench now.

That's a Flagrant 1 by definition.

Ku and Houston were either barely even or reeling in their losses. We were in control with only the stretch left in both and folded. Couldn't build on momentum.

Point being it had more to do with Bu's disappearing act than the great opponent. Ku and Houston actually closed hard and came up short. Bu basically tried to hold on.. different

Won't be surprised at all to see a Houston, Kansas, Iowa St, 1-2-3 finish in some order.

Agree with you guys on those loses on the road. Most posters are saying no big deal, you lose some on the road. While true, you can't lose the ones you should win, I would put KSU in that bucket. The Texas game is slightly more forgivable in that it was a massive game for them and their talent is on par with Baylor. If your aspirations are a conference title and great seed in March, you have to win the games against the less talented Big 12 teams. ISU and Kansas are likely better, just still out, but no doubt Houston is the toughest team in conference. All of their guys are bought in on the defensive side of the ball. They will have a game here or there where the ball doesn't go in, but I would not want to face them at home. I think the Houston game in Waco will tell me a lot about how good our team is on the offensive side of the ball. I predict a frustrating game.

DanaDane said:

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I'll say this for Houston -- they are a team full of hard nosed players who go all out. If Big 12 refs continue to allow them to play aggressive, hard nosed D they are gonna be a highly difficult team to beat unless the opponent is shooting lights out. Hate to confess, but I thoroughly enjoy watching them play D.

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Me too. Really showcased their coaching and athletic ability today crushing KSU. I think they will win the Big 12 if they can overcome the KU hold.

That's my guess as it stands. ISU in Waco next weekend is going to be tough. This is their best squad in a good 7 years. Really need KU to pull this out

That's why I pointed out specifically K State. Everyone will lose road games, but we squandered a 6 point lead with less than 2 minutes to go in the game. I see that as different than simply getting beat on the road, which is what happened in both of KU's and UH's games. True, they are all losses. But that one, in particular, is one that shouldn't have gotten away. The probability of going undefeated at home is not exceptionally high as you always have an off game or two even at home, so that would have been the perfect offset for a home game that we lose

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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. I think they will win the Big 12 if they can overcome the KU hold.

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Literally AND figuratively!!!!!!!!

Kansas had a 16 pt lead on UCF..and double digits to start second half..they folded at end like we did.

Kansas trailed all game in Morgantown and took a 2 pt.lead and had ball with 2 minutes left..and folded..just like we did..

But that's the flip side of what makes this league great..you have tons of opportunities to make up for a misstep earlier when you gave one away.

No use in worrying about a game you gave away and were not even a third into the season when every other contender is in same boat.

That being said they become bigger as we move along.

BYU is such a weird team. They play incredible basketball in the first half of every game, then just collapse in the 2nd half almost every game. They're taking it to the Horns so far, up by 10 with around 3 minutes to go in the first half.


BYU 41
UT 31

No they didn't fold like us. Ucf had the lead for more of the second half than Ku did. Ku kept pushing to steal it got close but couldn't break through. Completely different.

And your Wvu game comment supports what I already said.

McCullar is 3-14 from the field, 0-5 from 3. And, other than Dickinson, KU really has no one else to step up offensively.

OU leads Tech by 1 in Norman at the half.

34-33

Iowa St 69
KU 65

3:47 to go.

Good game in Ames

OK, looks like BYU has finally overcome the 2nd half blues.

BYU kicking the Horns all over the Marriott with 72% shooting from the field, 50% from 3.

BYU leading 72-55 with 8:30 to go

KU goes down in Ames

Iowa St moves to 5-2, while KU falls to 4-3.

IowaBear said:

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This!
The life in the B12 is a cop out. Those were 2 games BU should have won. 2 games where Bu is clearly the better and more talented team. Winning is never easy on the road. But that pants pissing in Manhattan should have never happened

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I don't think anyone has said the opposite. But two things can be true at the same time.

We let our games in Manhattan and Austin get away from us. But those are also solid (not great) teams playing at home.

When you have no breaks, which is the case in the Big 12, you're going to lose games you should win. It's just a fact, and it's why no one in our league has fewer than two losses six or seven games in.

Sooners pulling ahead of Tech with 8 to go as the Red Raiders are getting in foul trouble.

Sooners 64
Tech 57

Quinton said:

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I agree it's a weak mentality and I don't love how the players keep on parroting it bc our staff repeats that line. It's true sometimes but K state and Texas aren't it.

They had a lead with momentum in each and just snuffed it. Didn't have to do with the spectacular comp.

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Road games at Kansas State and Texas aren't easy. Pretending they are is silly.

Should we have won those games? Yes. No one has said otherwise. But it's really damn hard to win on the road in this league. Every metric bears that out.

Kansas State coach Jerome Tang on Houston: “They may be the best defensive team I’ve ever seen.”

— Joseph Duarte (@Joseph_Duarte) January 27, 2024

DanaDane said:

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Won't be surprised at all to see a Houston, Kansas, Iowa St, 1-2-3 finish in some order.

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Iowa State is the best team in this league right now. That's a top 10-15 team.