Big 12 pursuing Duke to join the conference https://t.co/9o56HjVUAN

— big12news (@big12pressbox) March 26, 2024

https://larrybrownsports.com/college-basketball/big-12-duke-join-conference-acc/630616

"Well-placed sources told us that the Big 12 is being aggressive with ACC basketball membership and has their eyes solely set on Duke to pair with Gonzaga," Montemayor said.

The Big 12 has been trying to persuade Gonzaga's basketball team to leave the West Coast Conference to join their conference but has been unsuccessful so far. Montemayor says the Big 12 would love to add both Duke and Gonzaga to strengthen themselves as a premier basketball conference.

Montemayor added that Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark is trying to forge relationships now in case the ACC falls apart.

"He is targeting potential free agency after the ACC melts down," Montemayor said of Yormark.

parch said:

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It's a smart move, regardless of its likelihood. Clemson and Florida State are both going to sue their way out of the GOR and will inevitably join the SEC whenever they decide to expand again. The SEC doesn't care about any other ACC program, Miami and UNC very much included.

If Clemson/FSU win this lawsuit against the ACC, it will break the GOR's hold and set a legal precedent that allows any other program to leave. Clemson is arguing that the GOR is tied specifically to the ESPN deal, which would break if they left. No idea how likely it is that they win, but that lawsuit was a signifier that the big dogs aren't interested in defending the ACC anymore. Programs like Duke and UNC need to look out for themselves.

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From what I read it's a long shot for Clemson/FSU. But who knows?

BluesBear said:

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Gonazaga, Duke, UNC and Miami to the Big12. Yikes...

Cancel the end of season conference tournament and run one during a week in the month of February...

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I'd rather have UConn than Miami. Especially if the plan is to build an unbeatable basketball juggernaut.

But UNC is going to end up in the Big Ten, most likely.

bear2be2 said:

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PartyBear said:

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Sorry but Gonzaga just makes no sense. It is a tiny school with really no athletic program except a hoops program that has been good for roughly 10 years and it is located about where WSU is which is is way the fxxk out of the way from everything. Would we be like pursuing Rice if they had a hoops program like Gonzaga's over the past decade or so? Except they are in like the 3rd largest metro area in the country and Rice has div 1 athletic programs other than basketball. In summary Rice makes more sense and Rice doesnt make any sense at all.

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The Big 12 is well past the point of being able to compete with the Power Two at their own game. Markets don't matter as much national relevance, and Gonzaga is a national draw. That's one of the top 10 men's basketball programs in the country -- a program without which a national championship tournament can't be played.

The Big 12 can't force its way into the football national championship discussion because it doesn't have a single program capable of winning a football national title in the current landscape. That's not true in basketball.

The Big 12 is just trying to keep the Power Two from completely leaving it in the dust. And basketball is the only leverage it has.

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Gonzaga will lose the conference money in the long run and not impact a single TV contract that floats the teams in this league. Our commissioner needs to stop trying to be the NCAA basketball commissioner and get in a room and start negotiating with the SEC and Big 10 about how the three of us can create our own replacement for NCAA. Any other route is trying to live in a system that isn't going to last five years. ESPN and the SEC are straight up saying the quite part out loud now they want to cut the smaller teams out of everything not just football, that's what needs to be stopped. Adding tiny athletic departments who can't carry their weight in revenue production will not save this conference.

IvanBear said:

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bear2be2 said:

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PartyBear said:

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Sorry but Gonzaga just makes no sense. It is a tiny school with really no athletic program except a hoops program that has been good for roughly 10 years and it is located about where WSU is which is is way the fxxk out of the way from everything. Would we be like pursuing Rice if they had a hoops program like Gonzaga's over the past decade or so? Except they are in like the 3rd largest metro area in the country and Rice has div 1 athletic programs other than basketball. In summary Rice makes more sense and Rice doesnt make any sense at all.

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The Big 12 is well past the point of being able to compete with the Power Two at their own game. Markets don't matter as much national relevance, and Gonzaga is a national draw. That's one of the top 10 men's basketball programs in the country -- a program without which a national championship tournament can't be played.

The Big 12 can't force its way into the football national championship discussion because it doesn't have a single program capable of winning a football national title in the current landscape. That's not true in basketball.

The Big 12 is just trying to keep the Power Two from completely leaving it in the dust. And basketball is the only leverage it has.

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Gonzaga will lose the conference money in the long run and not impact a single TV contract that floats the teams in this league. Our commissioner needs to stop trying to be the NCAA basketball commissioner and get in a room and start negotiating with the SEC and Big 10 about how the three of us can create our own replacement for NCAA. Any other route is trying to live in a system that isn't going to last five years. ESPN and the SEC are straight up saying the quite part out loud now they want to cut the smaller teams out of everything not just football, that's what needs to be stopped. Adding tiny athletic departments who can't carry their weight in revenue production will not save this conference.

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The SEC and Big Ten have no reason whatsoever to negotiate or compromise with the Big 12. They hold all the leverage, and as we saw with the football playoff "negotiations," they're going to use it to their advantage -- good of college athletics be damned.

The only way the Big 12 gets any power to leverage against the Power Two is to build a basketball power that can't be ignored or left out when the SEC and Big Ten decide they're ready to take their ball and go home.

Yormark understands this and he's playing the hand he has the best he can.

bear2be2 said:

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IvanBear said:

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bear2be2 said:

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PartyBear said:

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Sorry but Gonzaga just makes no sense. It is a tiny school with really no athletic program except a hoops program that has been good for roughly 10 years and it is located about where WSU is which is is way the fxxk out of the way from everything. Would we be like pursuing Rice if they had a hoops program like Gonzaga's over the past decade or so? Except they are in like the 3rd largest metro area in the country and Rice has div 1 athletic programs other than basketball. In summary Rice makes more sense and Rice doesnt make any sense at all.

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The Big 12 is well past the point of being able to compete with the Power Two at their own game. Markets don't matter as much national relevance, and Gonzaga is a national draw. That's one of the top 10 men's basketball programs in the country -- a program without which a national championship tournament can't be played.

The Big 12 can't force its way into the football national championship discussion because it doesn't have a single program capable of winning a football national title in the current landscape. That's not true in basketball.

The Big 12 is just trying to keep the Power Two from completely leaving it in the dust. And basketball is the only leverage it has.

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Gonzaga will lose the conference money in the long run and not impact a single TV contract that floats the teams in this league. Our commissioner needs to stop trying to be the NCAA basketball commissioner and get in a room and start negotiating with the SEC and Big 10 about how the three of us can create our own replacement for NCAA. Any other route is trying to live in a system that isn't going to last five years. ESPN and the SEC are straight up saying the quite part out loud now they want to cut the smaller teams out of everything not just football, that's what needs to be stopped. Adding tiny athletic departments who can't carry their weight in revenue production will not save this conference.

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The SEC and Big Ten have no reason whatsoever to negotiate or compromise with the Big 12. They hold all the leverage, and as we saw with the football playoff "negotiations," they're going to use it to their advantage -- good of college athletics be damned.

The only way the Big 12 gets any power to leverage against the Power Two is to build a basketball power that can't be ignored or left out when the SEC and Big Ten decide they're ready to take their ball and go home.

Yormark understands this and he's playing the hand he has the best he can.

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It's foolish to think that the basketball is going to be a meaningful chip to play to influence anything in regards to football. The TV contracts are exclusively driven by football.

Betting on MBB growing, solid plan.

Betting on MBB value to balance CFB revenue, bad plan.
That concept almost = going all in on belief that CTE liability will destroy CFB.

UConn, Duke & Gonzaga are not primary plays…..they are secondary value at best.

NC State, Va Tech, Miami…….brands, markets, both CFB & MBB……that move is the current winning ticket.
As an aside, the current population projections are significantly different than even three to five years ago.
National brands are King……but they are few. Growing markets = growing brands in most cases.

The Networks can only suck so much advertising for 13-15 football games per school. Basketball adds a lot of flexibility and opportunity for growth.

How long will Rutgers, Vandy, Northwestern, and others be allowed to drain revenue from SEC when they really want a Clemson, etc...

Why not add the University of Dayton or Xavier instead then. They are closer to everyone else.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

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Betting on MBB growing, solid plan.

Betting on MBB value to balance CFB revenue, bad plan.
That concept almost = going all in on belief that CTE liability will destroy CFB.

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Nobody, least of all Yormark, is betting on MBB revenue to balance out CFB revenue. You just have to do the best you can with the chips the market gives you. He can't change the landscape of college football in America - that ship sailed a long time ago.

So what can he do? Cement our place as the best MBB conference in America and own the space he can. We'll never be the best CFB conference, or even in the top 2, but we can absolutely be "the basketball conference." In this day and age I'm fine with that. Like I said, that's our blue ocean and it'd be stupid for Yormark not to capitalize on it.

parch said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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Betting on MBB growing, solid plan.

Betting on MBB value to balance CFB revenue, bad plan.
That concept almost = going all in on belief that CTE liability will destroy CFB.

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Nobody, least of all Yormark, is betting on MBB revenue to balance out CFB revenue. You just have to do the best you can with the chips the market gives you. He can't change the landscape of college football in America - that ship sailed a long time ago.

So what can he do? Cement our place as the best MBB conference in America and own the space he can. We'll never be the best CFB conference, or even in the top 2, but we can absolutely be "the basketball conference." In this day and age I'm fine with that. Like I said, that's our blue ocean and it'd be stupid for Yormark not to capitalize on it.

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Broadcast contracts:

currently 80% CFB, 20% MBB…..everything else is worthless tonnage
Pie in the Sky best case scenario 75% CFB, 25% MBB
Realistic heavily optimistic view scenario 78% CFB, 22% MBB

and those % don't account for CFP $

the business model simply cannot be MBB centric.
Important issue? Certainly. Decision making lead factor? Never.
The value add of a MBB program would have to be "beyond massive" to offset any lessened CFB value.
How many business plans succeed constantly operating at a 4 to 1 disadvantage?

Gonzaga has been relevant far longer than 10 years. I remember them in the 90's getting deep in the tourney.

EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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Gonzaga has been relevant far longer than 10 years. I remember them in the 90's getting deep in the tourney.

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Dan Monson, who kicked started Gonzaga's ascent, just got fired after a 17-year tenure at Long Beach State. And that came after several years at Minnesota.

Gonzaga has been nationally relevant for a long time now.

PartyBear said:

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Why not add the University of Dayton or Xavier instead then. They are closer to everyone else.

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Geography went out the door a long time ago, unfortunately

BigGameBaylorBear said:

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PartyBear said:

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Why not add the University of Dayton or Xavier instead then. They are closer to everyone else.

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Geography went out the door a long time ago, unfortunately

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Not totally. Operational expenses of "other sports" is still a watched item.

Biggest item? No. Watched item? Yes.

bear2be2 said:

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The Big 12 should try to build the greatest collection of basketball schools ever assembled and dare the Power Two to try to create a tournament without them. It would be a joke.

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This.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Adriacus Peratuun said:

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Betting on MBB growing, solid plan.

Betting on MBB value to balance CFB revenue, bad plan.
That concept almost = going all in on belief that CTE liability will destroy CFB.

UConn, Duke & Gonzaga are not primary plays…..they are secondary value at best.

NC State, Va Tech, Miami…….brands, markets, both CFB & MBB……that move is the current winning ticket.
As an aside, the current population projections are significantly different than even there to five years ago.
National brands are King……but they are few. Growing markets = growing brands in most cases.

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Who said anything about balancing football money? That ship sailed a long time ago and there's not an ACC also-ran that changes that for the Big 12. This is about keeping the Power Two from literally squeezing every other league out of major college athletics.

They can control college football -- and potentially separate if/when they choose -- because they've poached every historically relevant program in the country. They can't do so in basketball while the Big 12, ACC and Big East house the best programs in the country.

The Big 12 should try to build the greatest collection of basketball schools ever assembled and dare the Power Two to try to create a tournament without them. It would be a joke.

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You argument is based upon wrong premises:

a) If SEC/B10 truly want to split off, there is absolutely NOTHING that the B12 [on its own] can do to stop it.
Call the politicians because we can't row that boat by ourselves.
Quality of MBB has zero impact on the split off decision.

b) SEC/B10 aren't currently trying to split off. SEC angling for greater share of CFP & March Madness clearly indicates that they understand that the split off format isn't currently viable.

What the B12 can do, should do, focus on is:

1) Grabbing every quality program in key geographic areas: Texas, Florida, Arizona, etc.
PLAY THE LONG GAME!
Almost every state in B10 footprint is hemorrhaging population. And not in small amounts.
The SEC historically was in small states other than Georgia & Florida……hence their strategic adds.

Brands are very important. But how many National brands exist in midsized/small states?
One. Notre Dame.
Population size matters.

2) Improve the football product. Emphasize competitiveness. Every time Ohio State blows out Indiana by 28 points we point out how good [competitive] our games were.
Change the narrative from "elite programs" to "quality competition".

3) build key strategic partners with "others" so if/when SEC/B10 start a split off move everyone else is ready to counterattack in unison.

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I like some of your ideas, but I don't think there's a long game to play. I firmly believe the Big 12 has maxed out its football revenue. The league will never again get a TV deal as lucrative as the one it just signed. First, there's not as much money to go around as the industry moves away from linear cable and into a digital era it can't monetize. And second, the resources they do have will be pushed in ever greater percentages toward the highest value properties (the Power Two). We'll get the scraps.

Adding middling football brands to a middling football league doesn't increase its demand. It just splits the pie into more pieces and keeps you from adding value in other, more untapped areas (ie. basketball).

I've never suggested the Big 12 can do anything to stop the Power Two from leaving. In fact, my point was that we have no leverage in that situation. But if you can control one of the two revenue sports -- and the Big 12 has that opportunity -- you can at least make the SEC and Big Ten think long and hard about what a split in football would look like for their other sports.

The Big 12 lost the TV revenue war. It's over. Continuing to fight battles long after the war was lost is futile. You can throw a few more pennies in the coffers that way. But the long-term impact of doing so keeps you from maximizing what future potential/value you actually do have and building a healthier, more sustainable league in the long run.

Problem with all of this is that the SEC and Big 10 are just going to take all their extra money they got for football and out pay the Big 12, ACC, and Big East for the best basketball coaches and players. It won't be immediate, but my guess is 20 years from now 4 out of every 5 basketball champs will come from the SEC or Big 10. It's unfortunate but between the consolidation of football powers and NIL it seems inevitable to me.

If the XII is a hoops power and with Arizona is only strengthening why do we need Gonzaga for this strategy. Going for Duke is the smart move for that strategy but not Gonzaga. I would say UNC but it appears they are B10 bound when FSU and Clemson blow the ACC up. But yes go for Miami, NcState, VaTech as well.

PartyBear said:

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Sorry but Gonzaga just makes no sense. It is a tiny school with really no athletic program except a hoops program that has been good for roughly 10 years and it is located about where WSU is which is is way the fxxk out of the way from everything. Would we be like pursuing Rice if they had a hoops program like Gonzaga's over the past decade or so? Except they are in like the 3rd largest metro area in the country and Rice has div 1 athletic programs other than basketball. In summary Rice makes more sense and Rice doesnt make any sense at all.

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I am not in favor of adding Gonzaga as I don't think they would add much of anything and think their basketball program would decline.

However, I will give them credit and say they have been good for 20+ years not just 10.

They are tied for 3rd most sweet 16 appearances (13) since 2000. (UNC and Michigan State)

Only Kansas (14) and Duke (17) have more.

PartyBear said:

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Sorry but Gonzaga just makes no sense. It is a tiny school with really no athletic program except a hoops program that has been good for roughly 10 years and it is located about where WSU is which is is way the fxxk out of the way from everything. Would we be like pursuing Rice if they had a hoops program like Gonzaga's over the past decade or so? Except they are in like the 3rd largest metro area in the country and Rice has div 1 athletic programs other than basketball. In summary Rice makes more sense and Rice doesnt make any sense at all.

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From someone who lives within walking distance of the campus - that really hurt my feelings - but I agree that Gonzaga in the B12 makes no sense.

sahen said:

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Problem with all of this is that the SEC and Big 10 are just going to take all their extra money they got for football and out pay the Big 12, ACC, and Big East for the best basketball coaches and players. It won't be immediate, but my guess is 20 years from now 4 out of every 5 basketball champs will come from the SEC or Big 10. It's unfortunate but between the consolidation of football powers and NIL it seems inevitable to me.

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This is in line with the secret that's sitting out in the open.

The P2 want to break off from the rest of the NCAA, however, they only want to do so if they can do it in a manner that would avoid litigation from the other conferences. The first step to achieving that is to create a massive financial and exposure disparity between the P2 and the other conferences (i.e. realignment consolidation, media deals, CFP money, etc.), and the second step is to place immense financial pressure on those other conferences (i.e. introduce revenue sharing with players) to the point where those other conferences essentially give up on trying to match the P2 due to their lack of resources. If, for example, the P2 make athletes employees and then introduce revenue sharing at even 30-40% of all revenues, the rest of the conferences could not meaningfully maintain elite athletic departments coupled with that loss of revenue and athletes would make much more money at the P2 than they would at those other conferences even if they never go pro.

Separately, adding Duke is neat, however, it's not going to move the needle in any meaningful way and would further solidify the Big 12 as a basketball first conference. That's probably inevitable at this point - the Big 12 becoming the Big East plus middling football.

Aberzombie1892 said:

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sahen said:

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Problem with all of this is that the SEC and Big 10 are just going to take all their extra money they got for football and out pay the Big 12, ACC, and Big East for the best basketball coaches and players. It won't be immediate, but my guess is 20 years from now 4 out of every 5 basketball champs will come from the SEC or Big 10. It's unfortunate but between the consolidation of football powers and NIL it seems inevitable to me.

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This is in line with the secret that's sitting out in the open.

The P2 want to break off from the rest of the NCAA, however, they only want to do so if they can do it in a manner that would avoid litigation from the other conferences. The first step to achieving that is to create a massive financial and exposure disparity between the P2 and the other conferences (i.e. realignment consolidation, media deals, CFP money, etc.), and the second step is to place immense financial pressure on those other conferences (i.e. introduce revenue sharing with players) to the point where those other conferences essentially give up on trying to match the P2 due to their lack of resources. If, for example, the P2 make athletes employees and then introduce revenue sharing at even 30-40% of all revenues, the rest of the conferences could not meaningfully maintain elite athletic departments coupled with that loss of revenue and athletes would make much more money at the P2 than they would at those other conferences even if they never go pro.

Separately, adding Duke is neat, however, it's not going to move the needle in any meaningful way and would further solidify the Big 12 as a basketball first conference. That's probably inevitable at this point - the Big 12 becoming the Big East plus middling football.

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The Big 12 will never become the Big East because every school but Kansas (and soon Arizona) still cares more about football. They just happen to be really good at basketball.

That's never been an apt comparison or a rational fear because the culture of those two leagues, their schools and their fanbases are completely different. The Big 12 will always maximize its potential on the football field. Outside of Texas, its programs have consistently punched above their weight on the football field. It just doesn't have the same potential the SEC or Big Ten do because it doesn't have the brands, tradition or resources.