Curious who my fellow posters have has potential Rd1 upsets? And yes I'm 100% using this info to potentially fill out my bracket.

Vegas doesn't have it as an upset, but 12 seed Colorado State over 5 seed Memphis is one I'll be riding. CSU has been hot since late December, and Memphis is likely to be without former ISU and Texas PG Tyrese Hunter.

I also like Drake over Missouri - contrast in playing styles. Mizzou likes to go up-tempo while Drake plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.

VCU over BYU is another one I'm pondering. As is Vandy over St. Mary's.

What you think about McNeese over Clemson? Troy over Kentucky is one I'm considering as well

IowaBear said:

---

What you think about McNeese over Clemson? Troy over Kentucky is one I'm considering as well

---

I don't know anything about Troy, but I do know Kentucky is banged up.

McNeese plays one of the most intense full court press defenses in the country. Were it another team other than a veteran Clemson squad that doesn't seem to wilt under pressure, I'd give them a better shot. I'll probably take McNeese at +7.5, though

Last 2 I swear haha. Liberty over Oregon ? And UCSD over Michigan ? Thoughts on either of those?

I have Drake over Mizzou. Mizzou has been hit and miss all year. When they are good, they are really good and when they are bad they are really bad. I didn't watch them that many times but when I did they came across as undisciplined. And that is the kind of team Drake can feast on because, as Mitch noted, Drake will slow the game down on Mizzou and I don't think Mizzou will have the discipline to play at that pace.

I would have taken McNeese in an upset pick over anyone else who doesn't have experienced guards because McNeese's trap presses are pretty darn good. But, Clemson has experienced guards who I think can break that press reasonably well.

I think Yale is an extremely tough matchup for A&M if the refs allow the game to be played at a high physical level and I won't be wildly surprised to see an upset there.

IowaBear said:

---

Last 2 I swear haha. Liberty over Oregon ? And UCSD over Michigan ? Thoughts on either of those?

---

I don't think Altman is going to let Oregon come out flat. I had faith in Liberty last year and they let me down.

UCSD would be a fantastic story. One of these super longshots is going to hit. I just don't trust any of them enough to potentially bust my parlay.

IowaBear said:

---

Last 2 I swear haha. Liberty over Oregon ? And UCSD over Michigan ? Thoughts on either of those?

---

the 8-9s and the 10-7s are interesting in a couple of places. I think Michigan is vulnerable, and the Creighton/Louisville game intrigues me (going with Creighton). I keep looking at the Kansas Arkansas matchup, my first -third reaction is no way Kansas doesn't take them, yet If hogs can make shots, it could be interesting.
Play in game Xavier and Texas, winner could get to the second round. One of those coaches could save a job or find a new one.

The L'ville, Creighton game has me all twisted. Same with KU/Arky. My gut says Arky, they also are getting Boogie Fland back. But I hate picking against Self in this scenario.

IowaBear said:

---

The L'ville, Creighton game has me all twisted. Same with KU/Arky. My gut says Arky, they also are getting Boogie Fland back. But I hate picking against Self in this scenario.

---

How healthy is Creighton. I would give them an edge if healthy. Auburn at the no. 1 overall not getting cupcakes after first round.

Kansas/Ark if it comes down to coaching, not a contest. This is such a strange Kansas team though. I could see them going out quietly or making a bit of a run. Can Thiero disrupt on the inside is the question for me.

Akron all day over Arizona...they got 4 shooters that will blitzkrieg Arizona...

You heard it here first.

Didn't they give UCLA all sorts of fits a few years ago? Akron is a sneaky good program in one of the better small ball conferences

Big12Fan2024 said:

---

I have Drake over Mizzou. Mizzou has been hit and miss all year. When they are good, they are really good and when they are bad they are really bad. I didn't watch them that many times but when I did they came across as undisciplined. And that is the kind of team Drake can feast on because, as Mitch noted, Drake will slow the game down on Mizzou and I don't think Mizzou will have the discipline to play at that pace.

I would have taken McNeese in an upset pick over anyone else who doesn't have experienced guards because McNeese's trap presses are pretty darn good. But, Clemson has experienced guards who I think can break that press reasonably well.

I think Yale is an extremely tough matchup for A&M if the refs allow the game to be played at a high physical level and I won't be wildly surprised to see an upset there.

---

Mizzou/Drake game could be heavily dependent on whether Mark Mitchell plays and at what healthy percentage. The reports say Mitchell (transfer from Duke and arguably their best player this year) is going to play in the tourney after sitting out the Florida game. He was ready to play against Florida, but the coach decided to give him extra rest before the NCAAs.

I've got Auburn going out in round 2 to Louisville or Creighton. Haven't decided which yet. Leaning Louisville.

UConn over Florida. Ain't gonna happen, but I did consider it for a minute.

Grand Canyon could make the Sweet 16.

Xavier/Texas winner makes the Sweet 16. More confident in that if Xavier beats Texas than the other way around.

McNeese could make the Sweet 16.

Yale over Aggie--hoping my anti-Aggie bias isn't clouding judgement too much here.

El Oso said:

---

I've got Auburn going out in round 2 to Louisville or Creighton. Haven't decided which yet. Leaning Louisville.

UConn over Florida. Ain't gonna happen, but I did consider it for a minute.

Grand Canyon could make the Sweet 16.

Xavier/Texas winner makes the Sweet 16. More confident in that if Xavier beats Texas than the other way around.

McNeese could make the Sweet 16.

Yale over Aggie--hoping my anti-Aggie bias isn't clouding judgement too much here.

---

Yale may be motivated when they hear aggies talk about their "yale leaders" in that East Texas accent.

Stay away from BYU ... they completely got screwed with this draw. They are good enough to win every round, but the matchup could have them losing any round. VCU is good, and they are great at 3pt defense. Wisconsin is disciplined and doesn't have the defensive lapses that they used to.

The Colorado State game is the most incorrectly seeded game ... CSU should have been a 9 or 10. Memphis should have been an 8 or a 9. Vegas already knows this and has CSU is the favorite.

The game that I hate is St Marys vs. Vandy. Vandy has zero business winning, but St. Mary's has a history of crumbling in the tourney.

Thanks for posting IowaBear. Been looking for some bracket insights.

I'm struggling with BYU vs VCU. I think BYU could be a surprise elite 8 team if they beat VCU but I'm not sure they will. Not a lot of tourney success while VCU does.

For super long shots that I'm not picking but interested in. Bryant over Michigan State. Sparty lost to MTSU one year as a 2 seed and Bryant had a couple dudes throwing down oops in their conference tourney game.

Lipscomb over Iowa State. ISU has been banged up and not looking like the team they were early. By saying this they will likely now go on a tear because they always do the opposite of what I pick them to do…

I think I'm rolling with CSU and UCSD in S16. One should get there at least… I think… hopefully

I'd love to see Yale over aggy

Lots of good picks in the thread!! Less than 48 hrs until the madness starts. I need to start filling out my bracket

Cancels any thoughts on McNeese for me. They're already reporting McNeese has cancelled or moved 3 practices because Will Wade was interviewing.

The more I look into it, the more I'm out on Michigan. Their metrics are trash, and they turn the ball over way too much to be trusted. I don't know that they lose in Round 1 (although it's very possible), but I don't think there's any way they advance to the second weekend.

UC San Diego has the best Turnover margin in the country I believe. So if Michigan turns it over a ton that's a recipe for an upset

Here's a crazy thorough March Madness guide I've been perusing: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/4zxvlbd2jjt5cct6wx2io/2025-NCAA-Tournament-Guide.pdf?rlkey=8qvmav0ttbldopeojr4hy2xq6&e=2&st=vbhtuexj&dl=0

If a finance guy can model great returns on investments why can't he model some basketball upsets?


https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/march-madness-2025-ncaa-tournament-upset-picks-4c31c061

Your friendly reminder that Mountain West teams are 26-53 ATS (32.9%) in the NCAA tourney since 2006.

— Eli Hershkovich (@EliHershkovich) March 19, 2025

I think teams that make deep runs unexpectedly (clem last year) seem primed for an early exit...and conversely teams that lost in an upset the year before in opening weekend (BYU, UK) will likely bounce back.

I have trauma from 2015 and 16 where we lost in opening round and opening day (if Im not mistaken) both in upsets.

Wade officially taking NC ST job. Made me feel much better about Clemson avoiding the upset.

I had ChatGPT talk me through matchups. Focused heavy on style of play, experienced guards, record over last 15 games, Vegas spreads, and a few metrics.

Also took a different swipe asking, average number of 12 over 5 and 13 over 4 upsets each year over the last 10.

After giving it my Elite 8, asked it which was my weakest pick and it gave me more insight.

Good stuff.

Drake, Arkansas, and Colorado State (seed upset)

I like Robert Morris this week.