How would you fix this mess?

7,167 Views | 92 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by boognish_bear
IowaBear
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Drew has a big off season ahead. What would you do if you were him?
1) continuity (bring in guys who have the opportunity to be here multiple years)
2) the current strategy recruiting wise sucks, abandon ship
3) DEFENSE FIGURE THAT **** OUT
4) Bring in some intensity within the coaching staff. The staff reminds me of Aranda. There's absolutely no juice on the team anymore
What else?
PacificBear
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Clean house. Players and coaches!
bear2be2
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PacificBear said:

Clean house. Players and coaches!

We've been cleaning house every year for three or four years now, and it's gotten us nowhere. In fact, it's gotten us worse than nowhere. We've gone straight backward.

We have several potential returners capable of being solid role/rotation players for us. We need to keep as many of them as we can and build around that core.

Williams can be a winning player. Bodo Bodo and Nnaji can do what we need our posts to do with a full offseason of rehab work/weight training and skill development. Perez can likely develop into a winning piece if we let him. And neither of the other freshmen should cost much to keep.

We need to bring all of those guys back and spend the rest of our money on a few potential difference-makers in the portal.

But we've got to find a way to make continuity and development a part of our program culture again. Abandoning that is the biggest reason we are where we are right now.
Big12Fan2024
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bear2be2 said:


We need to bring all of those guys back and spend the rest of our money on a few potential difference-makers in the portal.

But we've got to find a way to make continuity and development a part of our program culture again. Abandoning that is the biggest reason we are where we are right now.

This may be what we need to do, but we're already not doing that. We're taking a load of that cash and going after yet another 5 star who is projected as a 1-and-done and if you've seen him play he is right in line with the others we've signed (and most freshmen). He is skilled in a couple of areas and has shown potential in others. But we'll have him for one year and just like the other 5 star freshmen we've gotten, he'll likely put up good, not great numbers, and will not be capable of carrying an entire team (there's only 1 or 2 in college basketball who can). He'll probably realize that potential in 2-3 years and put up fantastic numbers in the league and that will do.................absolutely nothing for Baylor.

The money required to do that will ensure we can't take 2 experienced guys combined for the same price we're gonna pay him), and with both having already demonstrated they can put up similar numbers at a collegiate level to what we'll get out of him for 1 year. Then, when we have our first injury of the season (and we will; we've had them for the past 4 years) fans will complain our bench is not deep with only 7 guys available, while completely forgetting the reason why is that we took the biggest portion of our budget and spent on one guy when we could have had two who both would have given you the same numbers as the 1 player, but you get two bodies.

And then when we don't finish in line with expectations, fans can come in the Forum and proclaim how injuries are the reason we didn't have a better year.

Lather, rinse, repeat for the past 4 years of Baylor basketball and for pretty much all Baylor athletics these days.
ABC BEAR
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Chasing 5* players grabs headlines but is not DNA for success. Old teams win NC's. This was proven by us and everyone else since 2019. We need the grind and grit of the guys who built those great runs in the 20-teens.

Let others chase the one-'n-done players. Their auditions for the league no longer impress me.
BluesBear
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EuroLeague players average between $500-$800k. Do what most D1 soccer programs do by filling the roster with 23 year old "freshman" who didn't get a professional contract out of the European academies.

Grab those Euro players - who obviously can play ball and apparently have 4 years of eligibility...

Lock and Load with those guys + a few freshman (mostly small minute guys) who will stay for 4 years + a high profile "1 and done" type and let it rip. Maybe a 2 year portal guy as well.

Drew can take a salary cut from $5.5M to $2M, cut about half the staff so the NIL budget can be over $10M. Reward Drew with $1M bonuses for Conference Championships and NCAA tournament wins/championships.

Same with the players - - pay incentives for performance
Crawfoso1973
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I have absolutely no problem bringing in a 5 star freshman every year, because Sochan Missi and VJ were spectacular in their one year. CSD has a good success rate with them but the issue has been the rest of the team around them. We have lost our way as far as bringing it in developmental players and excellent role players. Outside of the one and done freshman are recruiting has been largely trash. No one complains as much about the one and done fourth and fifth year seniors, but that has been worse because they have been terrible with the exception of Omer and RayJ. Players like Roach, Obi, and Rataj are a double whammy because they suck in their one year. It is opportunity cost, because those scholarship could have been used to develop guys over a two or three year period. We have no coherent strategy on how to navigate the transfer portal era.
pedbear1978
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Drew has simply been here too long. Like other great coaches (Bobby Bowden, Mack Brown to name a few) they become stale. Drew has peeked and has been on decline for a few years. Ever since the Natty and Tang leaving his teams have digressed mainly due to not being aggressive defensively. It is time for Drew to hang it up at Baylor. He should not get a free pass just because he won a NATTY and is Baylor golden boy. Winning has to be a major expectation for coaches.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

I have absolutely no problem bringing in a 5 star freshman every year, because Sochan Missi and VJ were spectacular in their one year. CSD has a good success rate with them but the issue has been the rest of the team around them. We have lost our way as far as bringing it in developmental players and excellent role players. Outside of the one and done freshman are recruiting has been largely trash. No one complains as much about the one and done fourth and fifth year seniors, but that has been worse because they have been terrible with the exception of Omer and RayJ. Players like Roach, Obi, and Rataj are a double whammy because they suck in their one year. It is opportunity cost, because those scholarship could have been used to develop guys over a two or three year period. We have no coherent strategy on how to navigate the transfer portal era.
Unless the standard is meaningless accolades and/or post-Baylor success, I'm not sure how an argument can possibly be made that Scott Drew's track record with five-star freshmen is a good one.

--Tweety Carter's career is only remembered as it is because he developed over four years and was excellent as a senior. If he had left any time before his final season -- as most blue chip freshmen do -- he'd have been viewed as a good, not great player on a bunch of middling (or worse) teams.
--Perry Jones and Isaiah Austin saw their stock drop so much as freshmen they had to stay a second year. Both helped lead good teams as sophomores, but if either was judged on his freshman season alone, he'd have been viewed as a disappointment.
--Between the two above, Quincy Miller was a solid role player for a really good team. But he didn't do anything that Anthony Jones couldn't have in the minutes that were taken from him.
--Kendall Brown was a role player who wilted down the stretch and was largely a non-factor late in his one season on campus.
--Jeremy Sochan was great. No complaints.
--Keyonte George was a low-efficiency volume scorer who gave everything he got on the offensive end back on the defensive end.
--The same description above applies to Ja'Kobe Walter.
--Yves Missi was great. No complaints.
--VJ Edgecombe was great. No complaints.
--Robert Wright was a good, not great player for us who wilted down the stretch and left on horrible terms.
--Tounde Yessoufou, while very talented, has a super raw skillet and a very low basketball IQ that plays us out of as many games as his elite athleticism and motor play us into.

By my count, we've had three five-star freshmen in 12 who were elite college players as freshmen. And two of those weren't expected to be as good as they were. And as good as those guys were, none of them got us to the second weekend of the tournament during their time in Waco.

The only freshman we've had that played in a Sweet Sixteen or deeper as a freshman was Miller, and that's because he was like the fourth or fifth option on that team.

If our goal is to put guys in the NBA, the five-star freshman route has been a rousing success. If it is to bring success to the Baylor men's basketball program, I don't think anyone can argue it's been anything but a failure as a strategy.
IowaBear
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This is an excellent post. The whole idea that 5 star freshman at Baylor have radiated success is just wrong. But I don't see it mattering. Drew's going to have a losing record at years end. But rest assured he will pump his chest loudly if Yessoufou goes Rd1. That seems to be all Scott cares about these days.
Crawfoso1973
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Keyonte and Walter were what you say, volume scorers. That is their game. I am not a fan of them in particular.

Tounde, and Carr for that matter, would be much better and more efficient if we had a PG in place. They are put in the position to do too much with our offense in a disjointed mess. Tounde's skill set is so raw, he is poorly suited to be placed in a position of being a primary cog in any offense. It seems weird to isolate blame on Tounde when the rest of the roster around him is complete garbage.

I think you and I are saying the same thing. We have lost the ability to put coherent rosters together the past 2-3 seasons.
Jacques Strap
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BluesBear said:

EuroLeague players average between $500-$800k. Do what most D1 soccer programs do by filling the roster with 23 year old "freshman" who didn't get a professional contract out of the European academies.

Grab those Euro players - who obviously can play ball and apparently have 4 years of eligibility...

Lock and Load with those guys + a few freshman (mostly small minute guys) who will stay for 4 years + a high profile "1 and done" type and let it rip. Maybe a 2 year portal guy as well.

Drew can take a salary cut from $5.5M to $2M, cut about half the staff so the NIL budget can be over $10M. Reward Drew with $1M bonuses for Conference Championships and NCAA tournament wins/championships.

Same with the players - - pay incentives for performance


I have no idea if the bolded above is the going rate for 23-year-old Euro players but if it is then perhaps signing 5 23-year old guys each year might be the way to go. Sign 5 to a 2-year deal with an option for year 2 and then 5 more the next year. Rinse and repeat. This is pro basketball now so if you are going to play in this game just sign 23-year-old pros and forget about HS players. If some school steals a player after year 1 at least BU could get some $$ from a buyout.

I don't like the college is now pro ball model at all but playing HS freshmen and transfers with massive roster turnover year after year doesn't seem to be working.

Spending whatever NIL you have on guys that can produce now, not on developmental players seems like it would be worth a try. It worked for Indiana in football.
Mitch Blood Green
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PacificBear said:

Clean house. Players and coaches!


You can't build culture and chemistry with a new group of guys every year.
FFA0329
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All the current hysteria about Drew is wearing on me and frankly is over the top. His positive impact and miraculous resurrection of Baylor basketball along with his seemingly impeccable character is such a wonderful gift to Baylor and still deserves our gratitude and yes respect; however, I sadly agree about the chasing of the 5 star one and done guys year after year after year. That act has grown stale and has damaged Baylor basketball. Look at all the most successful programs. It is rarely, if ever, a formula for sweet 16 or better success. Round 1 picks did not do much for me either…….find winning players and mold a coherent team. The reason basketball is my favorite sport is my absolute belief that the whole is more than the sum of its parts, more than any other team game. Unless our one and done is the next LeBron James, it is not a winning formula.
bear2be2
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FFA0329 said:

All the current hysteria about Drew is wearing on me and frankly is over the top. His positive impact and miraculous resurrection of Baylor basketball along with his seemingly impeccable character is such a wonderful gift to Baylor and still deserves our gratitude and yes respect; however, I sadly agree about the chasing of the 5 star one and done guys year after year after year. That act has grown stale and has damaged Baylor basketball. Look at all the most successful programs. It is rarely, if ever, a formula for sweet 16 or better success. Round 1 picks did not do much for me either…….find winning players and mold a coherent team. The reason basketball is my favorite sport is my absolute belief that the whole is more than the sum of its parts, more than any other team game. Unless our one and done is the next LeBron James, it is not a winning formula.
I don't think there are many here who don't respect what Scott Drew has done at Baylor. I think most would tell you he's a legend who will eventually have a well-earned statue in front of Foster Pavilion.

But separating his past from his present and future, it's hard to argue that he's currently one of the better coaches in the Big 12. Our product this season is downright terrible, and we've been headed for this fall for while now. And worse, the forecast looking forward is cloudy under the rosiest of outlooks.

Scott Drew deserves a ton of credit, praise and respect for what he's done, but as the current steward of our men's basketball program, he has to do a better job than he's currently doing. His success has earned him some extra time to get things turned around, but at some point, he has to either do it or step aside.

He's paid exceptionally well to win basketball games. If he's no longer capable of doing so, we're going to have to have some difficult conversations and make some difficult choices in the coming years.
Baylorbears111
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Alot of hemming and hawing about Scott Drew. Baylor basketball IS Scott Drew. There is no example in our basketball history that the program has had any level of success outside of him. Getting rid of Drew before he himself wants to leave is a non-starter.

  • Baylor needs to focus on returning a defensive acumen to the fold. Our current coaching staff dedicated to this task is incapable of identifying those qualities in either a tangible or intangible way. We see Tech and Houston and ISU load up every year, there is no reason we cannot do them same or that we lack funding to be more competitive than we have been.
  • Fire whoever is making the roster and xo decisions for the defense and hire someone who knows what they are doing.
  • Stop the pursuit of the 5-star freshman one and dones. They generally underperform and are unproven assets.
  • Development over a 2-4 year period has been the program strength, the transfer portal makes this nearly impossible. I would pivot to finding older more established players in the portal.
We need someone who can make our guys physical bullies.
Crawfoso1973
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We have tried the older more established player route in the portal. Roach, Celestine, Obi, Rataj. Fail.
Baylorbears111
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Crawfoso1973 said:

We have tried the older more established player route in the portal. Roach, Celestine, Obi, Rataj. Fail.

You aren't wrong. Still, I believe past performance is the best predictor of future performance. I think the talent evaluation in the portal has to get better and some of these players were peaking before coming to Baylor and abruptly dropping.

I don't know if that is the result of poor conditioning, bad schematic fit, or injury. Regardless, we need analysts who can watch these guys on tape and see through stat line mirages to whether they are actually worth a slot on the roster.
IowaBear
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Those were all band aid players. Drew hasn't tried building his roster around older guys eligible to return in quite awhile. And it's why his teams have gotten steadily worse. He's had to replace more and more each year until last seasons culmination. It's entirely possible to build rosters this way. Drew is just choosing to build around 1 n done freshmsn & transfers
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

We have tried the older more established player route in the portal. Roach, Celestine, Obi, Rataj. Fail.
Dennis and Omier were both out of that mold, too, and they were good.

It's an inexact science, but it really comes down to talent evaluation and overall roster composition.

There's nothing wrong with a one-year player here or there to fill a specific role. The issue comes when we're relying almost exclusively on short-term band-aids, particularly when those guys aren't good enough to fill the roles we're bringing them in to fill.

I think the key is to get to where we're developing a rolling five-player core. If we can start every year with five viable rotation pieces, we can fill in the holes around those guys -- be it through short-term transfers or blue chip freshmen.

But developing that core is the key. That's what pretty much all elite programs are doing in this era.
bear2be2
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Piggy-backing off the post above, I got to thinking about how we should be recruiting if we want to accomplish what I describe above.

If we could ever get to the point where we're returning five potential rotation players, my ideal transfer/recruiting strategy would be ...

2 potential game-changing senior transfers
2 multi-year transfers with upside capable of filling specific roles immediately
2 freshmen capable of joining the rotation immediately (no more than one of those a one-and-done)
2 project freshmen you can redshirt.

The key to this, though, would be actually keeping the guys with eligibility in your program and developing them into usable players.

No one will ever hit on everybody, but we've got to do a better job in the future of identifying, retaining and developing enough talent to recruit in a way that's sustainable. Because this flying by the seat of our pants every offseason nonsense clearly isn't working.
Crawfoso1973
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Yep I fully agree. The occasional one year player is okay, but turning over entire rosters has been disastrous.
Crawfoso1973
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I agree and have said in multiple threads, that is why bringing back Williams is key. He is the kind of player with room to grow and develop and who already exhibits the requisite athleticism to compete in this conference. Bring in a core group of four or five guys in this tier of player who we can retain over two or three year period would change the trajectory of our program in a positive way.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

I agree and have said in multiple threads, that is why bringing back Williams is key. He is the kind of player with room to grow and develop and who already exhibits the requisite athleticism to compete in this conference. Bring in a core group of four or five guys in this tier of player who we can retain over two or three year period would change the trajectory of our program in a positive way.
As bad as this year has sucked, I want to see Williams, Bodo Bodo, Nnaji, Perez and both project freshmen brought back.

The first four all have the tools to be solid rotation players and the latter two are worth continued investment for now.

I just want to get back to a point where we have some players we can invest in as fans. Because one of the big downsides of the portal is not having any real connection to most of these guys.

In the past, even when players struggled, they were Baylor guys. You had some grace for them because they chose Baylor for many of the same reasons you did and had some level of commitment to the future prosperity of the university and its athletic programs.

Now that everyone is a mercenary, making temporary stays at each stop based on the highest NIL bid, I have no reason to invest in any of these guys as people. They either play well and I like them for that reason or they don't and I want their asses gone. They have no real connection to Baylor, and most of them won't be around long enough to develop any real attachment to them.

It makes for a very impersonal, transactional and superficial fan experience that generates a higher level of bitterness and resentment when you suck.

If we're not going to compete at the top of the sport with mercenaries, I would rather be decent with players that I can root for and get to know over multiple seasons.
Crawfoso1973
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Could not agree more. The current transfer portal environment, coupled with how our program has handled it, has ruined any joy I've had as a fan of Baylor basketball and college basketball in general. This year I don't think I'll even watch March Madness for the first time in 20+ years (and not just because Baylor won't be there).
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

Could not agree more. The current transfer portal environment, coupled with how our program has handled it, has ruined any joy I've had as a fan of Baylor basketball and college basketball in general. This year I don't think I'll even watch March Madness for the first time in 20+ years (and not just because Baylor won't be there).

I'll watch the tournament because I love the tournament. But I've watched less non-Baylor college basketball this season than ever before because it's depressing to watch other programs excel while ours can't get out of reverse.
Quinton
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Good thing is this is so bad that the team and staff can no longer point to some theoretical mid season improvement (unless a miracle happens) or some cherry picked stat they like to do.

This year is embarrasing enough to force real change and a possible re-balance towards toughness. Bu unfortunately needs this from time to time in all their programs.. the worst institution I've ever seen at taking advantage of historic momentum.
boognish_bear
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bear2be2
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boognish_bear said:


I love Scott Drew, but if we're being honest, he hasn't been in the top half of Big 12 coaches since this league expanded.

The last two teams, in particular, have not only been poorly constructed, they've been poorly coached as well.

This idea that Drew's past success has earned him a forever tenure at Baylor could ultimately put our program in exactly the same spot it was in before he arrived.
Quinton
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This is dumb. There's an old (thought to be retread when hired) 70 yr old down the road that's schooling Scott. There is a coach who had a medicore run at Unlv that came to the league and put it all together. There is a respected assistant from Gonzaga that is running circles around us. There is an guy with a solid track record at N Texas that has passed this program by.

Not to mention A&M, SMU, and Texas are all better than this team too. Crazy

Again, I don't think he should be removed. But to act like nobody could ever do better is crazy talk. I'm still in favor of a hard look and making very real, very hard changes in the program for the record.. with Drew.
IowaBear
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Don't forget Jamie Dixon whose also Drew's daddy
BabyJBear
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Drew's teams have undeniably gotten worse. I continue to think a lot of it's circumstantial, but at this point I'm persuaded some change in direction is needed.

This team would be a tourney team with Rob Wright. A team of Wright, Agbim, Tounde, Carr, Rataj, Powell, Williams, and Perez, plus maybe Mayo as the backup big and a backup wing, would be pretty good but not great. They'd be poor defensively but elite on offense. Rataj and Agbim would be more effective with a true PG. That was the plan.

I realize Baylor fans have come to expect a higher ceiling, but with Wright this team's performance would've been average for Drew's tenure. Good, not great. Better than TCU, who under Jamie Dixon has sucked more years than I can count.

When Wright bailed many fans immediately started dogging on his bad defense and seemingly forgot overnight that he was at times our best player last season. Imagine that dude being part of your core for 3-4 years. The NIL wasn't there.

Instead we have a team with no PG that is a mess on both sides of the ball. That's partially on the coaches for not grabbing another PG in the portal. It's also bad luck.

I agree Drew is too fixated on shiny objects. He took Roach when reportedly we were also recruiting Javon Small. Don't know if Small would've came here, but if he did and we took a quality backup center, last year's team would've been very good.

Kelvin Sampson's program is the ultimate college basketball unicorn in the NIL era. BYU and Tech have way more money than we do. Arizona has been a national power for decades and has more money than us. Iowa State's been good lately but it helps when you have a guy like Tamin Lipsey grow up in your backyard who you can develop for four years at a bargain rate. If Tamin Lipsey grew up in Waco instead of Ames bleeding green and gold we'd have had no need for Jeremy Roach's services.

I don't know what the fix is, but I'm pretty sure Drew and his staff would get a chuckle at us geniuses telling him he needs to fix his defense and construct better rosters.

If the goal is a natty or at least a return to the final four, it's apparent the current approach isn't going to get us there. We don't have the budget to compete that way. But Drew's win-now mentality of going hard on OADs and one-year transfers to kick off the NIL era was not a crazy bet to make 4 years ago. We'll see how they adjust.
datboiquadzilla
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I personally think the program needs either a culture or identity change (or perhaps both) in order for things to get better.
Big12Fan2024
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As usual, very loose definitions of "spectacular" and "elite" in this thread.

We've had some 5 stars who made spectacular plays, but none who have come through here has been spectacular in their one season with us. "Spectacular" is someone who can carry a team. Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa are two freshmen this year who can carry a team. Cooper Flagg last year was someone who could carry a team. "Spectacular" players are rare guys who can be 1st team all conference AND 1st Team All Americans. Yves Missi, Keyonte, Ja'Kobe, Jeremy Sochan (pretty sure he was a 4 star) and VJ Edgecombe were good players who posted good stats and made some spectacular plays. None of them were capable of carrying a team due to holes in their games. None of them were even remotely close to be all-Americans. None of them were even 1st team all Big 12 players. Just because a player is good for your team doesn't make him one of the best 5 or 10 in the country and just because they've done great or are doing great in the NBA doesn't mean a hill of beans for the 1 year of production they gave us.

So we need to put to rest this concept that just because VJ and some of the 5 stars made some spectacular singular plays that they were spectacular players here during their one year. If they had been, we wouldn't have made 4 consecutive 1st weekend exits from the NCAAs. They were really good players. Very enjoyable players to watch. But none of the 5 stars Drew has brought in have possessed the skills to carry a team. And from what I've seen of the most recent target, neither can he.

As I've said in other threads, the 5 stars we get are the ones who are 5 stars based on potential 3-4 years down the road, which is about as useful for us as pockets on underwear for the 1 year we have them. They have super athleticism, but lack common fundamentals for the most part. Drew is a replica of Calipari in that regard. Duke gets the fundamentally sound 5 stars who only need some polishing of their skills.

There's no coincidence the two coaches in DFL right now are from the same coaching tree. They both excelled during the era where their personalities were the primary components of recruiting (other than the kids they were never gonna get because of the shoe companies) and they were both damn good at it. But the world has changed. And unlike what many in this thread keep using as excuses, they both have been given healthy budgets that are not anywhere near the bottom of the conference people keep trying to use as an excuse. The problem for both is that they have spent unwisely as the new world order changed, which means there are holes in both of their programs talent assessment process. If they don't get that fixed, both will spend even more time at or near the bottom next year.

BluesBear
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boognish_bear said:




Chip. Go take pictures with your new donor plaque at the Baseball Park. Your basketball IQ and typical Baylor speak has no place here. No one is saying fire Drew right now, we just want accountability and a glimpse into the future outlook. Right now, Drew is costing a lot of money and burning through cash with little to show for it. This is a business, not a charity.
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