Evaluating Baylor Women’s Basketball Entering the Final Push of the Regular Season

Baylor women’s basketball currently sits alone in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 regular season crown – what has fueled the 10-2 start to conference play, and what must change for the Bears to hold on to the conference lead?

The Good

1) Following an underwhelming start to the season, Darianna Littlepage-Buggs has blossomed into the star she was expected to be entering this season

It was no secret that Littlepage-Buggs was struggling to start the year. The veteran forward shot 3-of-12 from the field against Duke, failed to score against Iowa and had a 30.0% true-shooting percentage against Texas. After averaging 13.8 points per game on a 68.7% true-shooting percentage in conference play last season before an injury limited her in the second half of February, expectations for Littlepage-Buggs were understandably high.

However, Littlepage-Buggs had a rough first half to her senior campaign. In the 2025 part of the season, she averaged 9.9 points per game on a subpar 46.7% effective field-goal percentage. While she was 31-of-45 at the rim, Littlepage-Buggs attempted 78 shots in the deep paint and mid-range, where she converted on just 29 of those attempts. 

Her low point came in her return to her home state of Oklahoma, where Baylor stunned the Cowgirls in a comeback win on New Year’s Eve. Littlepage-Buggs was subbed out of the game with 7:29 remaining in the third quarter and failed to see the floor for the rest of the game. Her 16 minutes played were a season low. While some players could have stayed down following being benched, the 2024-25 All-Big 12 First Team selection responded by playing some of the best basketball of her career.

Littlepage-Buggs has averaged 12.0 points, 12.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists since the start of the new year. Even more impressive, Littlepage-Buggs’ effective field-goal percentage over the 10-game stretch is 71.6%, and her true-shooting percentage is 72.9%, both elite numbers. 72.9% true-shooting percentage ranks in the 100th percentile. During the stretch, Littlepage-Buggs is shooting a ridiculous 81.8% at the rim (27-of-33), 62.5% in the deep paint (15-of-24), and 45.5% from the mid-range (5-of-11), in addition to knocking down four triples on six attempts. Littlepage-Buggs’ deep paint and mid-range jumper has notably bailed out Baylor five times with the shot-clock trickling down.

Even her rebounding has taken a small tick upward. Littlepage-Buggs, who carries the reputation of being an elite rebounder with an elite motor, posted a 9.1% offensive-rebound percentage, 21.8% defensive-rebound percentage and scored 2.4 second-chance points per game in the five high-major games the Bears played prior to the new year. While all three marks are good numbers, Littlepage-Buggs has boosted all three numbers over the last ten games. The forward has posted a 13.7% offensive-rebound percentage, 25.7% defensive-rebound percentage and scored 3.6 second-chance points, a huge reason Baylor has won nine of its last 10 games.

Moving on to impact metrics, Littlepage-Buggs change in impact is extremely evident. Against the five high-major opponents played prior to the new year, Littlepage-Buggs’ 32.6% effective field-goal percentage greatly affected her RAPM (I will be using hoop-explorer’s version of RAPM throughout this article), as she posted just a 2.4 RAPM in those five games. For context, that number ranked fifth on the team among players who played at least 30% of minutes in those five games. Taliah Scott, granted a small five-game sample size, notably had an unheard-of 17.5 RAPM. 

Over the last 10 games, Littlepage-Buggs has led the team with an 11.8 RAPM, which ranks top-50 nationally. Impact metrics have to be viewed in the context of the team, and Littlepage-Buggs 11.8 is 3.8 greater than anyone else on the team, as Scott checks in with an 8.0 RAPM. Littlepage-Buggs ranks first in both ORAPM and DRAPM among the team.

Her impact over the last 10 games is further magnified when looking at on-off splits. Baylor is 0.285 adjusted points per possession better with Littlepage-Buggs on the floor as opposed to without. 

Baylor’s rebounding simply falls apart with Littlepage-Buggs on the sideline. Baylor has a 37.4% offensive-rebound percentage and 68.3% defensive-rebound percentage with her on the floor, but those numbers drop to a 24.4% offensive-rebound percentage and 55.6 defensive-rebound percentage with the forward off the floor. Baylor’s field-goal percentage at the rim also dips strongly without the forward, falling from a strong 59.8% to 47.4% per hoop-explorer.

Littlepage-Buggs reemergence has been a huge reason for the Bears’ 9-1 record over their last 10 games, and her ability to sustain this play will have a large impact on Baylor over the second half of February and the month of March.

2) Not only is Baylor’s defense ranked 10th in the country, but its consistency has also been extremely impressive

Baylor has not allowed any team other than Texas back in mid-December to score above a point per possession, with Cincinnati coming the closest with 0.985 points per possession. Every Big 12 opponent the Bears have faced has failed to score 1.00 points per possession.

When looking at the top 20 defenses in the country, only three teams have allowed one or fewer teams to score 1.00 or more points per possession this season. The Bears are one of those teams, and they are surrounded by great company, as the other two teams are Connecticut and Texas. The Huskies and Longhorns have not allowed a team to score 1.00 points per possession all year, a large reason they rank as the top two defenses in the country.

This defensive consistency has led Baylor not only to have the best defense in the Big 12 throughout the season, but also the best defense in conference play. Baylor has held Big 12 opponents to a remarkable 0.798 points per field goal attempt, with those opponents shooting just 43.1% from 2-point range and an absurd 22.5% from 3-point range. 

These low percentages stem from Baylor’s rim deterrence, which has found the same success in conference play as it did in non-conference play. While conference opponents have shot 57.9% at the rim and 32.8% in the mid-range, 1.3% and 1.1% above high-major averages, only 36.5% of opponent 2-point attempts have come at the rim. Kyla Abraham’s 9.7% conference-play block percentage and Kiersten Johnson’s 8.2% conference-play block percentage have helped lead the Bears to be in the 92nd percentile in allowing field goal attempts at the rim and rank fifth nationally with a 15.6% team block percentage.

The Bears’ first-shot defense has been nothing short of elite. In conference play, teams are shooting a laughable 33.3% in the half-court, with the most success coming in scramble situations following offensive rebounds. Baylor has allowed 11.4 second-chance points per game in conference play, ranking in the 22nd percentile. Furthermore, due to the great first-shot defense, the Bears surrender 18.6% of allowed points on second-chance opportunities. If the team could improve on the defensive glass, the Bears’ defense would be comparable to anyone other than Connecticut.

Overall, the defense and its consistency should allow Baylor to play with all but a few teams nationally and raise its ceiling to around the Elite 8 round. The Bears do a superb job of keeping the ball in front of them and playing team defense.

3) Baylor has improved its ball security throughout the season

I am going to need you to scrub the West Virginia game from memory, or at least the emotions attached to that loss. I am well aware how frustrating that game was to watch, and a 38.0% turnover percentage per Barttorvik is a horrid mark. However, there has been a clear improvement from the group in the ball security department in conference play.

According to CBBAnalytics, Baylor ranked in the 42nd percentile in turnover rate from the start of the season to the Texas Tech game. Furthermore, the Bears ranked in the 7th percentile in turnover rate when filtering for just the high-major opponents in that timeframe. However, since the win in Stillwater, Oklahoma, the Bears have ranked in the 66th percentile in turnover rate. 

Adding on, since the game at Oklahoma State, Baylor ranks sixth in the conference in turnover rate, which ranks higher than its conference rank for shooting efficiency. In Baylor’s last game, a 67-64 win over Arizona State, Baylor turned the ball over on just 20.9% of possessions per Barttorvik. The Sun Devils rank 24th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and have turned Big 12 teams over on 26.7% of possessions. 

Teams with intense ball pressure are, without a doubt, still worrying for Baylor, but it is good to see improvement in what has been a negative for much of the season.

The Bad

1) Baylor’s lack of shot-making plagues its offense

The bad could be simplified into just that Baylor’s shot-making is not good enough. Even over the 10-1 stretch since Oklahoma State, Baylor ranks just 10th in effective field-goal percentage in conference play with a 45.9% effective field-goal percentage. This issue stems from Baylor’s lack of balanced scoring and shot creators, an issue that has existed all season, in addition to shot selection. 

Scott is the only Bear averaging over 3.0 points per game on off-the-dribble jumpers in conference play, though credit to Jana Van Gytenbeek for averaging more than one off-the-dribble jump-shot make per game in conference play. Van Gytenbeek is the only other Bear outside of Scott to score five or more unassisted points per game in conference play, scoring exactly 5.0 unassisted points per game, well up from her 2.8 points in non-conference play. 

Scott’s efficiency and production have dipped in conference play, as defenses have keyed in on the star guard. She scored 19.0 unassisted points per game in non-conference play, but that number has dropped to 12.7 points in conference play. That number is still extremely strong, ranking in the 98th percentile, but her efficiency has dropped.

Scott’s effective field-goal percentage in non-conference play was 55.3%, but that number has plummeted to 41.8% in conference play. Outside of her dip from the corners, as she went from 11-of-18 from the corners in non-conference action to 4-of-20 from the corners in the conference slate, her zone percentages have not drastically changed. However, Scott’s ability to get to the rim has been stifled by opponents sending early help and scheming to stop the All-Big 12 candidate. She attempted 21.3% of her shots at the rim in non-conference play, but just 6.0% of her shots have come at the rim in conference play. She has shot the mid-range well in conference play, knocking down 36.4% of her mid-range looks, but it is near-impossible to be an efficient scorer living in the deep paint and mid-range. Her ability to get to the free-throw line and knock down free throws saves her efficiency, as she has an above 50.0% true-shooting percentage, but the dip in her efficiency forces others to step up. Scott will always be a hyper-productive offensive player, though, as her gravity and ball security have placed her just behind Littlepage-Buggs in conference-play RAPM.

The number of 2-point shots away from the rim the team has taken as a whole is a huge reason for the lower effective field-goal percentage. In conference play, 40.8% of the team’s field goal attempts have come from the deep paint or mid-range, a 4.2% increase from non-conference play. While Baylor makes 66.4% of its attempts at the rim, 4.9% above the Big 12 average, the sheer amount of deeper 2-point attempts has led to Baylor ranking 13th in the conference in 2-point efficiency. 

Lastly, Baylor needs more balanced scoring. It cannot solely rely on Scott and Littlepage-Buggs carrying the load against top teams. Van Gytenbeek has done a good job stepping up over the past 11 games, but more help is still needed. Bella Fontleroy has been disappointing as a scorer. The veteran is posting a putrid 32.9% effective field-goal percentage in conference play, shooting 11-of-45 from inside the arc, and 17-of-66 from 3-point range. She is notably 12-of-51 on above-the-break 3-pointers. When removing lower-quad opponents, that number falls to a 27.6% effective field-goal percentage, a mark that must rise for the Bears to have enough offense to make a run in March and to keep the lead in the Big 12.

Yuting Deng’s scoring ability has not been present lately, as head coach Nicki Collen has reversed course and is preferring Marcayla Johnson over her as of late. Deng has been better than Johnson on both ends in conference play according to impact metrics, but when looking at impact metrics over the four games prior to Deng’s reduced minutes, it is clear why that decision was made. Johnson posted a respectable 3.9 RAPM over those four games, despite still struggling to be efficient, while Deng posted a -4.0 RAPM. If Deng is not scoring, her value dips quickly. However, the Bears need someone to provide points if they want to knock off the top teams.

I believe Kayla Nelms could be that piece. She currently posts an impressive 6.7 RAPM in conference play, and the on-off numbers further underscore her impact. Baylor is scoring an adjusted 1.134 points per possession when she is on the court in conference play, good for 13th nationally. Furthermore, its defense with Nelms ranks only behind Connecticut. I do think that is due to a lower amount of possessions with Nelms on the floor, but allowing just 0.649 adjusted points per possession for 138 defensive possessions is impressive and a solid sample size.

With Nelms off the floor, the offense falls to 1.047 adjusted points per possession and the defense to 0.801 adjusted points per possession. Nelms has a unique offensive skillset, able to operate as a four or five, and is capable of sealing off defenders as well as stepping out and shooting the 3-point shot. Nelms is a tweener in a negative way defensively, but pairing her with someone who can protect the rim can cover some of those weaknesses. Nelms and one of the bigs, Kiersten Johnson or Abraham, could improve the subpar rebounding that occurs when Littlepage-Buggs needs a rest.

Baylor has to find someone who can boost the offense to balance the team and raise its ceiling. While Littlepage-Buggs has played a strong conference slate and Van Gytenbeek has emerged as a 9.8-point-per-game scorer with decent efficiency in conference play to help Scott, someone else has to step up and be a consistent scorer for the Bears to improve their scoring flaws.

2) Baylor’s resume outpaces its predictive metrics

It is obviously a great thing to rank high in resume rankings. Baylor enters its matchup with TCU at 12th in the country in wins above bubble (WAB), and tops the conference in conference-play WAB and full-season WAB. A win against TCU would further launch Baylor into 10th nationally in WAB.

The worry is that Baylor is outplaying its actual level, and that the Bears could be due for a regression to the mean at the wrong time. While it is extremely possible to continue to win close games and stack up a great record while not beating teams as badly as you should, the losses tend to be lurking. 

Baylor has the lowest adjusted rating of any team in the top 25 for WAB, ranking just 29th nationally in adjusted rating per Barttorvik despite the high resume ranking. Baylor also ranks fourth in conference-play efficiency, trailing TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State, despite leading the conference in WAB and being in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 regular season trophy with just six games remaining.

Baylor has three tough games and three should-win games remaining, and it must pick up another resume-building win at a minimum to continue to prove the adjusted rating obsolete. The Bears do not have a win over a top-25 efficiency team since they opened the season by knocking off Duke, but they have cleaned up on a plethora of upper-quad teams. There is no doubt Baylor can defeat teams they are better than, but Baylor’s 1-4 record against teams with higher adjusted ratings than the Bears gives worry to Baylor’s lower adjusted rating relative to its WAB.