Can Baylor Make a Miraculous March Run? Evaluating the Bears’ Big 12 Tournament Chances

Basketball expert Ashley Hodge weighs in on Baylor’s season and looks ahead to whether the Bears can make a serious run in the Big 12 Tournament, plus what options lie ahead for the postseason.

Do you like the way Baylor’s playing heading into the Big 12 Tournament? It seems the Bears have really turned a corner in recent weeks, but they just didn’t have the horses to finish off upsets against No. 2 Arizona and No. 7 Houston.

Ashley: The Bears have been playing better since the West Virginia win on the road in late January. Baylor’s 5-6 in its last 11 games, and outside of the abysmal performance at Kansas State, the Bears have played competitively in all their losses against better teams (at Iowa State, BYU, Louisville, Arizona, at Houston), while racking up road wins at West Virginia and UCF. Plus, Baylor beat the teams they are supposed to beat at home (Arizona State, Colorado and Utah). How will this translate to the Big 12 Tournament? The Bears should be slight favorites to beat Arizona State. Drawing Iowa State in Kansas City is a true road game, but hopefully, the Bears have one special game in them if they can defeat the Sun Devils first.

Do the Bears have a chance to make a serious run in the Big 12 Tournament? Being the 13-seed is tough, but Baylor already beat 12-seed Arizona State this year, took 5-seed Iowa State to the wire twice, and 4-seed Texas Tech is without its star player, JT Toppin.

Ashley: I like the Bears’ chances against Texas Tech without JT Toppin a lot more than playing Iowa State in Kansas City (Hilton South). I’ve witnessed Baylor getting its teeth kicked in by Iowa State in Kansas City way too many times to expect an upset. My guess is that if the Bears get past Arizona State, the road ends versus Iowa State. Kansas City LOVES to see Iowa State and Kansas advance for obvious reasons.

Assuming the Bears don’t win the Big 12 Tournament, what’s the postseason situation for head coach Scott Drew’s squad? Would Baylor accept an invite to the Crown or NIT, or would it look ahead to the offseason?

Ashley: Baylor would likely be headed to the Crown in an eight-team tournament in Las Vegas, April 1-5. It’s a location the Bears have already played in; hopefully, that helps them lock in and win that event.

Hindsight in 20/20, but let’s look back at this season for a second. Even though this was an incredibly disappointing year for Baylor’s standards, would the Bears have made the NCAA Tournament had they taken care of business against Kansas State, split the series against TCU and finished off one of the upsets at home against No. 3 Iowa State, No. 22 BYU, No. 2 Arizona and No. 7 Houston?

Ashley: Yes, if the Bears were sitting at 9-9 in Big 12 play right now, I believe they would be in the tournament field. The loss at Memphis is also a killer, but the strength of the Big 12 would have been enough to get them in the field in my view. However, I would hope for at least one win in the Big 12 tournament to feel secure, even if they were sitting at 9-9 in conference play.