Can't trust Baylor-The morning after

2,379 Views | 26 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by historian
gobears20
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Great Baylor Merchandise -> https://bit.ly/2M8DuHk
gobears20
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I agree some with this guy and threes don't always fall and that rim can shrink in the Ncaa but we have guys that can create their own shots and we have a lot of guys who can shoot. The inside concerns me but again we had one loss in the big 12 this year one of the best conferences in the nation.
Great Baylor Merchandise -> https://bit.ly/2M8DuHk
CTbruin
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The guy is a clown. Just look at him.
BUCANDOIT82
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We just put three players on the All Big XII First Team Defense. That's 3 out of 5 starters representing 10 teams, seven of which are ranked in the AP Top 25. And this guy wants to talk about Kenpom adjusted defensive rankings.

Kenpom has BYU ranked ahead of West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. I have seen BYU play this year and I don't trust the Kenpom rankings vs the eyeball test.
Johnny Bear
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BUCANDOIT82 said:

We just put three players on the All Big XII First Team Defense. That's 3 out of 5 starters representing 10 teams, seven of which are ranked in the AP Top 25. And this guy wants to talk about Kenpom adjusted defensive rankings.

Kenpom has BYU ranked ahead of West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. I have seen BYU play this year and I don't trust the Kenpom rankings vs the eyeball test.

Kenpom is overrated as a measure of team strength.
bear2be2
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Johnny Bear said:

BUCANDOIT82 said:

We just put three players on the All Big XII First Team Defense. That's 3 out of 5 starters representing 10 teams, seven of which are ranked in the AP Top 25. And this guy wants to talk about Kenpom adjusted defensive rankings.

Kenpom has BYU ranked ahead of West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. I have seen BYU play this year and I don't trust the Kenpom rankings vs the eyeball test.

Kenpom is overrated as a measure of team strength.

I disagree, but it has to be looked at in the proper context.

This video is a good example of where that has not happened. Calling Baylor's defense "lackluster" based on a defensive rating so heavily impacted by the five games we've played since our COVID shutdown is idiotic. Baylor was a top-five defense all year until its three-week hiatus. Any analysis that doesn't take that into account is "analysis" worth ignoring.

Do we need to improve our defensive play heading into the tournament? Yes. But our pre-COVID defense was nothing short of elite.
runner
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I think outside of about 5 teams in the tournament whether our threes are falling or not is the difference in the Bears winning by 8 or 15+. We may not blow a team out without the threes but we will still win.
vanillabryce
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This guy contradicts himself so many times, and he acknowledges it at every time too!

"Baylor is at its best when it's hitting threes- as most teams are!"

Thanks for the analysis bro.

vanillabryce
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If we go cold from three we can lose - just like other teams.

We have four great guards, and we have a 6'9 forward who has some of the best per 40 minute #s in the Big12.

We present matchup problems for a lot of teams.

There are, of course many variables to post season success. But two primaries are matchups and guard play.
EvilTroyAndAbed
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I can't trust Baylor because I've been a fan for 50 years, and they always break my heart ... except for Mulk.

But this team feels different.

The John Wall Kentucky team was so very good, but during their Elite Eight game against WVA, they couldn't hit an outside shot to save their life. It's something that can be a problem, but I think we concentrate so much on defense that we can win in other ways.
gobears20
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This kind of stuff with outside shooting happen to the great Iowa State teams and Missouri teams. Both teams would take a lot of threes and had problems in the ncaa with it.
Great Baylor Merchandise -> https://bit.ly/2M8DuHk
Mitch Henessey
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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

I can't trust Baylor because I've been a fan for 50 years, and they always break my heart ... except for Mulk.

But this team feels different.

The John Wall Kentucky team was so very good, but during their Elite Eight game against WVA, they couldn't hit an outside shot to save their life. It's something that can be a problem, but I think we concentrate so much on defense that we can win in other ways.
It's been said already in this thread, but we can win any way we need to. Win a low-scoring rockfight against an outstanding defense? We can do that (@Tech). Win a "blow your hair back" offensive explosion? We can do that, too (@WVU).

The only thing we don't have is an interior low-post presence, but we have enough that we can get buckets inside if we need to. Butler and Mitchell can get to the rack at will, Teague has a highly developed intermediate game, Mayer can pull up in the lane and bury jumpers, and Vital and Everyday Jon can clean up misses at the rim. That's not to mention the pick-and-roll prowess guys like Thamba, Vital, and EJ have.

Bottom line: defense travels, and as long as we're back to defending like we did pre-COVID, we're gonna be in every game. With the amount of weapons we have at our disposal, it's only a matter of time before we overwhelm you on the offensive end as well.
historian
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Essentially his argument is that we are too good at shooting 3s. WHAT???

Usually that's a good thing. And, as has been mentioned, our defense is capable of doing great things. I seem to remember several weeks ago it was ranked #1 in the country. Is my memory wrong? Even if we were "only" top 5 before, we are capable of playing at that level again.

The conference tournament will be good preparation for the dance. Although there are no guarantees, we certainly have a real chance of winning it all.
Jacques Strap
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Mitch Henessey said:




Bottom line: defense travels, and as long as we're back to defending like we did pre-COVID, we're gonna be in every game. With the amount of weapons we have at our disposal, it's only a matter of time before we overwhelm you on the offensive end as well.

Agree with this. Bears just beat a 3, 4,and 5 seed with what looks to be less that their best defense. Not sure the defense is back to where it was, but we have the B12 tournament and the first-round games to keep improving.
historian
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That should buy us the time to face Gonzaga & the Big 10 juggernauts.

Personally, I think the top 3-4 Big 10 teams are really good (although probably not all are as good as their ranking suggests) & the rest are more down to earth. But what do I know? I haven't seen enough of them to really gauge their relative strengths.
EvilTroyAndAbed
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Big 10 is top heavy, but Michigan, Illinois and Iowa could easily win it all.
historian
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Those 3 are clearly very good & potential champions but i have doubts about OSU & the rest.
BUCANDOIT82
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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

Big 10 is top heavy, but Michigan, Illinois and Iowa could easily win it all.


Only Illinois has a chance to get to a Final Four. A very overrated conference.
EvilTroyAndAbed
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BUCANDOIT82 said:

EvilTroyAndAbed said:

Big 10 is top heavy, but Michigan, Illinois and Iowa could easily win it all.


Only Illinois has a chance to get to a Final Four. A very overrated conference.
Everyone has a chance. George Mason got to a Final Four.
IowaBear
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Bingo, this I agree on. Everyone acts like the F4 teams are already locked in. We literally just saw a 16 seed beat a 1 seed. ANYTHING is possible come tournament time.
chorne68
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I am a super Baylor fan but this guy was spot on. We have a great team but if the shots are not falling we could lose. Our defense was great but the past few games were not great. In basketball anything can happen. If we play like we are capable of, no team should beat us. I sure hope we do. I just remember the football bowl game against UCF that we should have won easily but lost.
EvilTroyAndAbed
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IowaBear said:

Bingo, this I agree on. Everyone acts like the F4 teams are already locked in. We literally just saw a 16 seed beat a 1 seed. ANYTHING is possible come tournament time.
AND that No. 1 seed with virtually the same team intact WON the National Championship the very next year. Crazy stuff happens in the tourney.

But I think we'll be fine to get to the 16. Then we'll see what happens.
bear2be2
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chorne68 said:

I am a super Baylor fan but this guy was spot on. We have a great team but if the shots are not falling we could lose. Our defense was great but the past few games were not great. In basketball anything can happen. If we play like we are capable of, no team should beat us. I sure hope we do. I just remember the football bowl game against UCF that we should have won easily but lost.

It's not really analysis to say that any basketball team could lose if they play really poorly because that applies to every team in history.

Applying that logic specifically to this team, which has already survived a handful of poor shooting games seems really lazy to me. All of our guards can score inside and outside the arc. That's why our offense is good, not because we rely exclusively on the 3 ball. If we're not hitting from the outside, we have a number of different ways we can score.
BUCANDOIT82
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IowaBear said:

Bingo, this I agree on. Everyone acts like the F4 teams are already locked in. We literally just saw a 16 seed beat a 1 seed. ANYTHING is possible come tournament time.
Anything?
IowaBear
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Yeah anything can happen, big difference between my rational thoughts and yours which are as far reality as can be
chorne68
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On an off night, any team could lose.
historian
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I don't think any team in any sport can win a national championship I've been really good at one thing. Baylor won because we were very good at many things. 3 point shooting was just one of them.
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