Why we may struggle:
1. Length. Kansas State's core of 8 players includes 6 who are over 6'0 tall, and 1 who is 5'11". Serena Sundell (6'2') is their PG, and she'll be able to pass directly over the top of Jada or Sarah. Jaelyn Glenn (6'1") at SG will have an advantage over Sarah or Yaya. Ayoka Lee (6'6") will have a height advantage on the low post over Netty and Kyla.
2. Experience. Kansas State's core 8 players include 5 Seniors and 1 Junior. Temira Poindexter is the only core player who is new to the program this year; this team understands their system and understands their roles.
3. 3 Point Shooting. They have 3 players shooting over 40% from 3 (Glenn, Poindexter, Sides).
4. Lee is back. Lee is an elite low post player, a Big 12 POY candidate when she's healthy.
5. Buggs may not play.
6. They've been dominating Big 12 play. They lead the league in scoring (80/game), FG % (49%), and opponent FG% (35%), and they're 2nd in opponent scoring (56/game).
7. Grueling travel schedule for us to play on Saturday afternoon, then make the trip to Manhattan for a Monday game.
8. Manhattan home court advantage - they're undefeated this year at home.
Why we may succeed:
1) Momentum - we are peaking at just the right time. Individually, we're seeing Bella, Yaya, Netty, and Kyla play better than they have all year, and with an 8 game win streak our confidence is sky high. Our players feel more confident and decisive within our system, with better spacing and better pacing.
2) Athleticism - what we lose in length to KSU we gain in speed and athleticism. The active and physical defense we saw yesterday was outstanding, disrupting passing lanes and bothering ballhandlers; we'll need more of the same tomorrow night. As Iowa Bear pointed out, KSU is not a really athletic or fast team, so this is our primary advantage over them.
3) Kansas State's schedule - they had a very weak non-conference schedule; Duke was the only ranked opponent, and they lost to Duke. The only standout wins in conference are to TCU, Utah, and Iowa State. They've lost to West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Colorado (!). The luck of the draw has them only playing once against the strongest teams in conference (Baylor, TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Utah). Is it possible that Kansas State's statistical dominance is a mirage, because they haven't really been challenged enough by strong opponents?