BeerThief said:

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theyve beat a ws contender handily the last 2 games. i had the snakes giving the dodgers a run earlier in the season.

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No question the last two games have been good in many respects. The pitching was solid (even Liriano looked OK Tuesday), the fielding good and the bats are rocking.

This morning, ESPN started pushing Judge for MVP again, saying that Altuve had 'comparable stats' but 'less buzz'. That tells me ESPN is worried about Altuve and the Astros making some noise again.

Oldbear83 said:

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BeerThief said:

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theyve beat a ws contender handily the last 2 games. i had the snakes giving the dodgers a run earlier in the season.

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No question the last two games have been good in many respects. The pitching was solid (even Liriano looked OK Tuesday), the fielding good and the bats are rocking.

This morning, ESPN started pushing Judge for MVP again, saying that Altuve had 'comparable stats' but 'less buzz'. That tells me ESPN is worried about Altuve and the Astros making some noise again.

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espn caters to the big markets in baseball just like they do in cfb. bama, nd, osu will always get more hype than baylor etc

Well, Fiers is sure earning his pay today ... assuming he is getting paid by the Diamondbacks.

His teammates keep him from completely setting the place on fire, but Fiers does not look good today. I get that the d-backs are a great team, but Fiers keeps missing the plate, already has a throwing error, and gets into trouble more often than Tiger Woods.

I see Eeyore posted something, Im assuming we're down.

The Astros have been held scoreless through 5 innings today, falling behind 3-0 in the Top of the 6th. I thought there'd be at least one call for Hudgens' paycheck in here.

Altuve seems to get into "swing mode" when high leverage spots come up. Swinging at pitches that are nowhere close. Either that, or looking at strike three to end ball games.

He's 0-for-8 in All Star Game appearances
He's 4-for-26 in Postseason play.

And his career stats are much worse in high leverage at bats.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=altuvjo01&year=Career&t=b#all_clutc


That being said, he's had some big hits this year in key situations. So I still like seeing him up. A 3-Hour-Energy version of Jose Altuve is still pretty good.

ValpoCory said:

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The Astros have been held scoreless through 5 innings today, falling behind 3-0 in the Top of the 6th. I thought there'd be at least one call for Hudgens' paycheck in here.

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The batting has issues, but the real trouble is Fiers.

And 'Eeyore' has a username that starts with 'G', if we're going to play that game.

ValpoCory said:

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The Astros have been held scoreless through 5 innings today, falling behind 3-0 in the Top of the 6th. I thought there'd be at least one call for Hudgens' paycheck in here.

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7 strikeouts so far against a pitcher with a 4.3 ERA.

The last two games were nice, but the 'Stros are off their stride today.

Astros shut out again, go 0 for 4 with RISP, swinging almost as bad at key moments as Fiers pitched.

What's sad, is the team kept Fiers' mistakes from blowing up completely, limiting the damage to 3 runs by Fiers. Liriano continues to improve, which is another silver lining.

Just a bad day, except that Fiers still sucks.

Oldbear83 said:

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Liriano continues to improve, which is another silver lining.

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I must have missed that.

ValpoCory said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Liriano continues to improve, which is another silver lining.

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I must have missed that.

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They only used him for an inning, but he was effective, seems to be getting a better hang of the relief role.

We are definitely in a funk...

glad we have a big lead and even more glad that the playoffs don't start for 2 months

JusHappy2BeHere said:

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We are definitely in a funk...

glad we have a big lead and even more glad that the playoffs don't start for 2 months

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Yes. There are nine guys on the DL. Need to get healthy.

D. C. Bear said:

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JusHappy2BeHere said:

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We are definitely in a funk...

glad we have a big lead and even more glad that the playoffs don't start for 2 months

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Yes. There are nine guys on the DL. Need to get healthy.

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Just get healthy legally. Don't want any scandals do derail what's looking like a championship season.

GoldMind said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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JusHappy2BeHere said:

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We are definitely in a funk...

glad we have a big lead and even more glad that the playoffs don't start for 2 months

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Yes. There are nine guys on the DL. Need to get healthy.

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Just get healthy legally. Don't want any scandals do derail what's looking like a championship season.

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Serious question: Do you think Verlander is worth what it would cost to get him?

Oldbear83 said:

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GoldMind said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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JusHappy2BeHere said:

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We are definitely in a funk...

glad we have a big lead and even more glad that the playoffs don't start for 2 months

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Yes. There are nine guys on the DL. Need to get healthy.

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Just get healthy legally. Don't want any scandals do derail what's looking like a championship season.

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Serious question: Do you think Verlander is worth what it would cost to get him?

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Serious answer. No, I don't. Don't think he'd be worth what it would cost to keep him, either.

Oldbear83 said:

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GoldMind said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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JusHappy2BeHere said:

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We are definitely in a funk...

glad we have a big lead and even more glad that the playoffs don't start for 2 months

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Yes. There are nine guys on the DL. Need to get healthy.

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Just get healthy legally. Don't want any scandals do derail what's looking like a championship season.

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Serious question: Do you think Verlander is worth what it would cost to get him?

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I will preface this by saying that I have ZERO inside information.

my take is that every team with a piece that could actually help Houston demanded Kyle Tucker or it was no longer a discussion.

That's a non-starter... Houston front office thinks Tucker is a complete Stud and probably a starter in the OF next year.

if they are right then I'm fine with holding pat...

Would you give up Correa for a spare? Tucker may be the next Correa

Worth every dime we could spare and I'll tell you why. We need arms. Good arms. There's 50 Kelly Kinzers or Josh Harrisons or Patrick McGregors out there that could be a bandaid.

We are supposed to be in win now mode. Who cares what it would take to keep him. Ask the Cubs if they cared Chapman walked.

JusHappy2BeHere said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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GoldMind said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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JusHappy2BeHere said:

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We are definitely in a funk...

glad we have a big lead and even more glad that the playoffs don't start for 2 months

---

Yes. There are nine guys on the DL. Need to get healthy.

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Just get healthy legally. Don't want any scandals do derail what's looking like a championship season.

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Serious question: Do you think Verlander is worth what it would cost to get him?

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I will preface this by saying that I have ZERO inside information.

my take is that every team with a piece that could actually help Houston demanded Kyle Tucker or it was no longer a discussion.

That's a non-starter... Houston front office thinks Tucker is a complete Stud and probably a starter in the OF next year.

if they are right then I'm fine with holding pat...

Would you give up Correa for a spare? Tucker may be the next Correa

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I heard they were asking for both Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. And the media would have applauded the Astros.

Whitley unhittable in Buies Creek debut | MiLB.com
Houston Astros Elite Prospect Forrest Whitley Impresses in High A Debut
Whitley whiffs career-high 11 in Hooks debut | MiLB.com

Quote:

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After punching out the side in the second, Whitley registered six consecutive outs by strikeout. He was staked to a 1-0 lead when top Astros prospect Kyle Tucker blasted a solo shot to right-center field in the top of the third.

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Making trades to appease the masses is what led Jon Daniels to trade away Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder. In the 4 seasons since that trade, Ian Kinsler has a combined WAR of 20.0. Prince is at 0.3.

Great pitching again, and just enough hitting to get the Astros win #75

Thread silence. Either winning or scoreless.

GoldMind said:

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Thread silence. Either winning or scoreless.

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3-0 final. Astros win. Turned six double plays.

GoldMind said:

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Thread silence. Either winning or scoreless.

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Really just means you have nothing to say. Excellent pitching by Houston leads to a 3-0 win. I also washed my dog, cleaned a wound where she scratched herself, and killed a couple ant mounds in the back yard.

Did you do anything but mutter today, GM?

D. C. Bear said:

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GoldMind said:

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Thread silence. Either winning or scoreless.

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3-0 final. Astros win. Turned six double plays.

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Back on track. Great D.

Astros record -- 76-47, 39 games remaining
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Magic Number to clinch AL West/Playoff Spot -- 27 (over Angels)
Magic Number to clinch homefield in ALDS -- 34 (over Indians)
Magic Number to clinch homefield throughout AL Playoffs -- 35 (over Red Sox)

Man, I hate sacrifice bunting. Especially when you are down 1 in the Bottom of the 8th inning, with 2 on and 0 out with your #1 RBI guy at the plate, and bunting, even if successful, would lead to a forceable-runner-at-3rd with 1 out and your 4th string catcher at the plate.

Sheesh Hinch.


Here he is in the postgame news conference:

Even managers have off games

GoldMind said:

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Even managers have off games

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Yes, and if he had grounded into a double play, we would have a beef with him not bunting. Nevertheless, it was probably better to put the game on the bat of a veteran major league player rather than a minor league catcher. His managing should improve when the DL shrinks.

D. C. Bear said:

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GoldMind said:

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Even managers have off games

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Yes, and if he had grounded into a double play, we would have a beef with him not bunting.

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In the American League, there is almost no scenario where sacrifice bunting is the right call. The current batter just has to be SIGNIFICANTLY worse than each of the next two batters following him.

You score more runs with a runner on 2nd and 0 outs than with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

ValpoCory said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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GoldMind said:

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Even managers have off games

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Yes, and if he had grounded into a double play, we would have a beef with him not bunting.

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In the American League, there is almost no scenario where sacrifice bunting is the right call. The current batter just has to be SIGNIFICANTLY worse than each of the next two batters following him.

You score more runs with a runner on 2nd and 0 outs than with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

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What are the percentages?

My Facebook Timehop reminded me this morning that on this day in 2011, the Astros were officially eliminated from the wild card race.

D. C. Bear said:

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ValpoCory said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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GoldMind said:

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Even managers have off games

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Yes, and if he had grounded into a double play, we would have a beef with him not bunting.

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In the American League, there is almost no scenario where sacrifice bunting is the right call. The current batter just has to be SIGNIFICANTLY worse than each of the next two batters following him.

You score more runs with a runner on 2nd and 0 outs than with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

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What are the percentages?

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"But for the most part, the sac bunt has fallen out of favor because teams are too smart to be so dumb. They know that the data says that giving up an out to advance a runner is a very bad idea."

And the data, for 2017, through yesterday
Average # of runs scored in innings after a runner gets on 2nd with 0 outs: 1.1095
Average # of runs scored in innings after a runner gets on 3rd with 1 out: 0.9325 (16% drop)

So even if the sacrifice bunt is successful, you are decreasing your run expectation by 16%. So when you consider all the failed bunt attempts, that expectation drop gets even worse.

It's similar for 1st and 2nd with 0 outs (1.481 runs) going to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (1.3366 ... 10% drop).

ValpoCory said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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ValpoCory said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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GoldMind said:

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Even managers have off games

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Yes, and if he had grounded into a double play, we would have a beef with him not bunting.

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In the American League, there is almost no scenario where sacrifice bunting is the right call. The current batter just has to be SIGNIFICANTLY worse than each of the next two batters following him.

You score more runs with a runner on 2nd and 0 outs than with a runner on 3rd with 1 out.

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What are the percentages?

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"But for the most part, the sac bunt has fallen out of favor because teams are too smart to be so dumb. They know that the data says that giving up an out to advance a runner is a very bad idea."

And the data, for 2017, through yesterday
Average # of runs scored in innings after a runner gets on 2nd with 0 outs: 1.1095
Average # of runs scored in innings after a runner gets on 3rd with 1 out: 0.9325 (16% drop)

So even if the sacrifice bunt is successful, you are decreasing your run expectation by 16%. So when you consider all the failed bunt attempts, that expectation drop gets even worse.

It's similar for 1st and 2nd with 0 outs (1.481 runs) going to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (1.3366 ... 10% drop).

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That is a very cool site.

Astros win 6-1 over the Nationals. Bregman hits a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 8th, and Liriano closes out the 9th in an unorthodox but fun 1-2-3 inning.

Astros blastros. On track like a train chugging to October.