Prigohzin has alien head.

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Not mentioned in the article is that only a small percentage of new brigades have been committed. Why? Because the attacks thus far are probing/fixing attacks, testing the Russian defenses, forcing them to commit reserves to the front, exposing arms caches and lines of supply.

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Or at least that was the expectation.

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Unexpected Russian strength would, from a purely analytical perspective, be an indicator that Russians have done exactly as hoped.....rapid forward deployment of reserves, high rates of big fires, massive use of mines, etc.....

Their line is stronger, and more brittle. Ukes will refit, re-test, continue to attrit Russian ammo. ISW reported yesterday Russia has manpower shortages on eastern end of the front which have made it impossible for them to continue offensive operations.

So while we've all been watching western Donetsk and central Zapo, to see where the main Uke strike would fall, Russian offensive ops have ground to a halt on the eastern ends of the line, as Russia insurgent activity sustains in Belgorad. Meanwhile, Wagner group revolts, seizes the main Russian logistics hub of Rostov, announces a de facto insurrection, and marches on Moscow with ca 25k troops. Reports from Visegrad news outlet indicates Russian troops inside Russia are starting to join with Wagner Group.

BREAKING:

The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow pic.twitter.com/62vUpoaZur

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023

In addition to a solar plexus shot to the entire Russian logistics system, this severely exposes the Russian right flank. Uke could drive down thru eastern Donbas and take Rostov, cutting off the Russian army in Ukraine.

Not saying that will happen. But the Russian generals can see it is a present danger and knows Ukraine ha a fresh armored force of 60k troops available to deploy. They cannot ignore it.

Remember what I said about dilemmas? The goal of warfare is to present your adversary with dilemmas, a smorgasboard of terrible choices to make. Central logistics hub seized by insurgent forces, the right flank you weakened to defend the center is now exposed to mounting rebel forces between your army and your capitol, your forward ammo dumps are being methodically attrited by long-range rocket attacks, and your only available retreat is Crimea and the main bridges you need have just been rendered unusable. And somewhere, there are a dozen brigades of fresh troops with western kit waiting to strike.

So, General Gerasimov. What order do you issue right now?

whiterock said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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Not mentioned in the article is that only a small percentage of new brigades have been committed. Why? Because the attacks thus far are probing/fixing attacks, testing the Russian defenses, forcing them to commit reserves to the front, exposing arms caches and lines of supply.

---

Or at least that was the expectation.

---

Unexpected Russian strength would, from a purely analytical perspective, be an indicator that Russians have done exactly as hoped.....rapid forward deployment of reserves, high rates of big fires, massive use of mines, etc.....

Their line is stronger, and more brittle. Ukes will refit, re-test, continue to attrit Russian ammo. ISW reported yesterday Russia has manpower shortages on eastern end of the front which have made it impossible for them to continue offensive operations.

So while we've all been watching western Donetsk and central Zapo, to see where the main Uke strike would fall, Russian offensive ops have ground to a halt on the eastern ends of the line, as Russia insurgent activity sustains in Belgorad. Meanwhile, Wagner group revolts, seizes the main Russian logistics hub of Rostov, announces a de facto insurrection, and marches on Moscow with ca 25k troops. Reports from Visegrad news outlet indicates Russian troops inside Russia are starting to join with Wagner Group.

BREAKING:

The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow pic.twitter.com/62vUpoaZur

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023

In addition to a solar plexus shot to the entire Russian logistics system, this severely exposes the Russian right flank. Uke could drive down thru eastern Donbas and take Rostov, cutting off the Russian army in Ukraine.

Not saying that will happen. But the Russian generals can see it is a present danger and knows Ukraine ha a fresh armored force of 60k troops available to deploy. They cannot ignore it.

Remember what I said about dilemmas? The goal of warfare is to present your adversary with dilemmas, a smorgasboard of terrible choices to make. Central logistics hub seized by insurgent forces, the right flank you weakened to defend the center is now exposed to mounting rebel forces between your army and your capitol, your forward ammo dumps are being methodically attrited by long-range rocket attacks, and your only available retreat is Crimea and the main bridges you need have just been rendered unusable. And somewhere, there are a dozen brigades of fresh troops with western kit waiting to strike.

So, General Gerasimov. What order do you issue right now?

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Except that the strength of the Russian line wasn't unexpected. I've been talking about it for months. There's no reason to assume they've had to weaken their flank in this way.

Assuming Gerasimov isn't looking to play this for his own advantage, the biggest issue right now is Wagner. But Putin doesn't want a civil war and doesn't necessarily need to destroy the whole group. He'll want to contain them and if possible take out Prigozhin. Either way, they won't last long unless the military openly joins them. I assume that's what Prigozhin is counting on, but if it doesn't happen very soon, it's not going to happen.

Stuff like this all over the internet. ISW assesses the coup unlikely to succeed and that is the appropriate call at this time. But time is not on Putin's side. Until Prigozhin is hanging dead from a pillar in Red Square, the stories about the rebellion will sap morale in an already beleaguered Russian Army.

Ukrainian "Bakhmut Demon" 😳:

"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation.

Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.

You would hear… pic.twitter.com/ovXaJkGbvk

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 23, 2023

At worst, impressive psyops.

Lukashenka took the whole family to Turkey , - Belarusian media.

The plane landed at 5 am. The business jet flew in a strange route and, it seems, deliberately bypassed the regions of the Russian Federation covered by the rebellion. The board is often used by the dictator's… pic.twitter.com/J0TQRuVfTP

— Lew Anno Suport #Ukraine 24/2-22 (@anno1540) June 24, 2023

ISW does not repot what has not been confirmed.

Early SITREP as of approx 1000 EDT on June 24

-Wagner controls #Rostov

-#Wagner advancing north past Voronezh which they seem to have bypassed at least partially. En route to #Moscow

-No major confirmed ground clashes yet. Some unconfirmed reports of airstrikes & at least one…

— Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) June 24, 2023

History just got weirder.

— Battle Beagle (@HarmlessYardDog) June 24, 2023

weird indeed. Chechens defending the Russian capitol.

Showing up and looking tough with dramatic background music... after the whole show is over seems rather on brand for the tiktok warlord. https://t.co/LRVH53OL3a

— toomas ilves, ex-verif (@IlvesToomas) June 25, 2023

ISW now confirming reports from yesterday.
Another dilemma for Russia.

ISW currently makes no assessment on the extent to which Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead in this area, noting only that we assess that Ukrainian forces have established and hold positions of some sort on the east (left) bank. https://t.co/TrGLrBXwtH

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) June 28, 2023

For people interested in this kind of thing. Interview is with a private contractor who trained Kurdish and then Ukrainian soldiers. The interview kind of focuses on out of place small arms used in the conflict, but also other subjects.

HuMcK said:

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For people interested in this kind of thing. Interview is with a private contractor who trained Kurdish and then Ukrainian soldiers. The interview kind of focuses on out of place small arms used in the conflict, but also other subjects.

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Funny, I am in Hungary now and was in Austria last week, wouldn't even know a war is taking place.

HuMcK said:

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For people interested in this kind of thing. Interview is with a private contractor who trained Kurdish and then Ukrainian soldiers. The interview kind of focuses on out of place small arms used in the conflict, but also other subjects.

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Forgotten Weapons is an excellent YouTube channel. Very informative.

10km long traffic jam on Kerch Bridge lanes headed back to Russia.

The queue between the Russian main land and occupied Crimea has already reached 10 km. There is extra security, for unknown reasons. pic.twitter.com/fN9xGHCyIm

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 1, 2023

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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10km long traffic jam on Kerch Bridge lanes headed back to Russia.

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I'm impressed. Only 18 months worth of blood and treasure, and we've managed to create a bad weekend on I-35.

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Ukrainians, who have spent the blood part, are elated, and the long line is telling: everyone in Crimea knows what is coming.

Waiting on confirmations, but the lines have been breached in a couple of places along the front, and the Russians have been unable to repel the bridgehead at Kherson. The Ukes have presented too many dilemmas and the Russians are going to have to make some withdrawals. But from where, and to where?

The Russians in Crimea are not waiting to find out.

Good take:

"Putin is still in control of Russia. His regime is not collapsing. Strikingly, few regular soldiers defected to join Prigozhin’s mutiny, and not one governor sided with the putschists." 1/ THREAD

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) July 2, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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GOP conservatives, in particular religious conservatives, are among the staunchest supporters of Israel.

for comparison from last fall:

The current pace of #Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that #Ukraine cannot retake large areas. https://t.co/KzvP749pj5 https://t.co/XbnYERAzro pic.twitter.com/sHPMcloKsf

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 5, 2023

whiterock said:

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10km long traffic jam on Kerch Bridge lanes headed back to Russia.

The queue between the Russian main land and occupied Crimea has already reached 10 km. There is extra security, for unknown reasons. pic.twitter.com/fN9xGHCyIm

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 1, 2023

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Yawn…

Looks like Houston or I-35 in Austin

Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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10km long traffic jam on Kerch Bridge lanes headed back to Russia.

The queue between the Russian main land and occupied Crimea has already reached 10 km. There is extra security, for unknown reasons. pic.twitter.com/fN9xGHCyIm

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 1, 2023

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Yawn…

Looks like Houston or I-35 in Austin

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But there isn't a hot war going on in College Station......

The sight of rats running down the mooring ropes to shore is a mine canary.

whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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GOP conservatives, in particular religious conservatives, are among the staunchest supporters of Israel.

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Most likely true.

But its past time to give them Billions of dollars every year.

Same goes for Jordan and Egypt .

Ivy League level schools would never let someone come on campus to talk about ending mass immigration…because that would be "muh nazism".

But actual Nazis from Eastern Europe are ok

Elite Stanford University hosted a delegation from Azov, a neo-Nazi formation in Ukraine's National Guard

During the panel, Azov projected its Nazi symbol on the wall

Neoliberal "End of History" philosopher Francis Fukuyama attended and posed for photoshttps://t.co/GkWrS8HM7T

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) July 5, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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Ivy League level schools would never let someone come on campus to talk about ending mass immigration…because that would be "muh nazism".

But actual Nazis from Eastern Europe are ok

Elite Stanford University hosted a delegation from Azov, a neo-Nazi formation in Ukraine's National Guard

During the panel, Azov projected its Nazi symbol on the wall

Neoliberal "End of History" philosopher Francis Fukuyama attended and posed for photoshttps://t.co/GkWrS8HM7T

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) July 5, 2023

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very tiresome, paper-thin case.. The author begins by begging the question with all the familiar tropes - right-wing, far-right, ultra-nationalists, etc..... Then adds intentionality fallacy with allegations about the coincidence of arcane symbols associated with Nazi movements in the past, etc.... And when it's all done, there really isn't any details on AZOV ideology.

And completely lost from the mix is are some highly important facts: Azov serves under a Jewish president and has only attacked Russian invaders. Azov is actually a Russian speaking group that has a number of Russian dissidents who, lacking other outlets to oppose Putin, crossed into Ukraine to join Azov.

Are they "radicals?" Well, yeah, having a foreign army invade your country and flatten the largest city in your home area does tend to "radicalize" people. But I'm not seeing them campaign to purge all the Jews from Ukraine. If I'm missing it please point it out.

What does a Nazi even do in eastern Europe? You have to travel to commit hate crimes.

ron.reagan said:

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What does a Nazi even do in eastern Europe? You have to travel to commit hate crimes.

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Beat up on Gypsies? (who, if we can be honest, do tend to suck)

Create increasingly strange and esoteric forms of intra-Slavic racism?

whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Ivy League level schools would never let someone come on campus to talk about ending mass immigration…because that would be "muh nazism".

But actual Nazis from Eastern Europe are ok

Elite Stanford University hosted a delegation from Azov, a neo-Nazi formation in Ukraine's National Guard

During the panel, Azov projected its Nazi symbol on the wall

Neoliberal "End of History" philosopher Francis Fukuyama attended and posed for photoshttps://t.co/GkWrS8HM7T

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) July 5, 2023

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very tiresome, paper-thin case.. The author begins by begging the question with all the familiar tropes - right-wing, far-right, ultra-nationalists, etc..... .

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When was the last time any one to the right of Mitt Romney was welcomed at the Ivy League?

The USA ruling regime is allergic to any form of conservatism, nationalism, or white racial solidarity….unless of course it's on the other side of the world and it can be used to fight Moscow.

“How did WWIII begin?”

Slowly then suddenly. https://t.co/aVn0s857lK

— Cernovich (@Cernovich) July 7, 2023

My views on war are simple:

1. Whenever possible it should be avoided. Diplomacy and rapproachment should always be favored.
2. The threat of force is better than using it. Big stick diplomacy.
3. If all else fails absolutely annihilate the enemy with zero remorse or paperwork.

Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Ivy League level schools would never let someone come on campus to talk about ending mass immigration…because that would be "muh nazism".

But actual Nazis from Eastern Europe are ok

Elite Stanford University hosted a delegation from Azov, a neo-Nazi formation in Ukraine's National Guard

During the panel, Azov projected its Nazi symbol on the wall

Neoliberal "End of History" philosopher Francis Fukuyama attended and posed for photoshttps://t.co/GkWrS8HM7T

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) July 5, 2023

---

very tiresome, paper-thin case.. The author begins by begging the question with all the familiar tropes - right-wing, far-right, ultra-nationalists, etc..... .

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When was the last time any one to the right of Mitt Romney was welcomed at the Ivy League?

The USA ruling regime is allergic to any form of conservatism, nationalism, or white racial solidarity….unless of course it's on the other side of the world and it can be used to fight Moscow.

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Stanford is not Ivy League and actually has a long history of inviting conservatives of all stripes. Stanford also is known for having outstanding conservative scholars.

whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Ivy League level schools would never let someone come on campus to talk about ending mass immigration…because that would be "muh nazism".

But actual Nazis from Eastern Europe are ok

Elite Stanford University hosted a delegation from Azov, a neo-Nazi formation in Ukraine's National Guard

During the panel, Azov projected its Nazi symbol on the wall

Neoliberal "End of History" philosopher Francis Fukuyama attended and posed for photoshttps://t.co/GkWrS8HM7T

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) July 5, 2023

---

very tiresome, paper-thin case.. The author begins by begging the question with all the familiar tropes - right-wing, far-right, ultra-nationalists, etc..... Then adds intentionality fallacy with allegations about the coincidence of arcane symbols associated with Nazi movements in the past, etc.... And when it's all done, there really isn't any details on AZOV ideology.

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IRISH MERCENARY FOR UKRAINE DESCRIBES WAR: “IT’S A GENOCIDE “pic.twitter.com/wlRUA0zaNp

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 12, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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IRISH MERCENARY FOR UKRAINE DESCRIBES WAR: “IT’S A GENOCIDE “pic.twitter.com/wlRUA0zaNp

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 12, 2023

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Nothing unusual there. War is a tough business. And this one is a high-intensity conflict. much deadlier battlefield than the dusty wars of the last couple of decades.

But the soldier did use the word "genocide," so it makes for good propaganda.

whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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IRISH MERCENARY FOR UKRAINE DESCRIBES WAR: “IT’S A GENOCIDE “pic.twitter.com/wlRUA0zaNp

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 12, 2023

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Nothing unusual there. War is a tough business. And this one is a high-intensity conflict. much deadlier battlefield than the dusty wars of the last couple of decades.

But the soldier did use the word "genocide," so it makes for good propaganda.

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Its an interview with a solider who has fought on the front lines...its his personal perspective on what is happening.

Its not "propaganda" unless you consider anything that is not 100% pro-war to be propaganda.