I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
Russia mobilizes
281,091 Views |
4259 Replies |
Last: 1 yr ago by sombear
Translation: Sam only writes what Putin likes.Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
We all have our opinions about how it will turn out in the end. I'm talking about facts on the ground today. I agree that Robotyne ultimately doesn't matter, though not for the reasons you think. If Ukraine doesn't get through at least one line of Russian defenses, it will mean they were weaker than even some skeptics believed. They've been pushing east and south for quite a while in order to bypass defenses on the north. As of latest reports, Ukraine controls roughly the northern half and Russia the southern half. This is what RFE describes as having "liberated" the city, but their source didn't say that (her actual statement was that "planned military operations are currently underway").trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
LOL stories & pictures on the internet of Uke Army evacuating citizens from Robotyne, walking thru the abandoned town...... Appreciate you acknowledging my prediction that the line of Uke advance will continue toward the SouthEast of Robotyne. The reasons are obvious - Russian fortifications are constructed to defend Melitopol and Tokmak, pursuant to a strategy of preventing Ukraine from a direct assault on the Crimea via the Svash approaches. However, Uke advances will likely trend southeast of those major fortifications because Melitopol, Tokmak, and Crimea do not appear to be the strategic objectives of the offensive. Sea of Azov appears to be the objective. Sever the roads and rails connecting Melitopol/Tokmak from Rostov, and the entire western end of the Russian front now becomes dependent on Crimea, which is itself easily cut off from Russia by collapsing the Kerch Bridge.Sam Lowry said:We all have our opinions about how it will turn out in the end. I'm talking about facts on the ground today. I agree that Robotyne ultimately doesn't matter, though not for the reasons you think. If Ukraine doesn't get through at least one line of Russian defenses, it will mean they were weaker than even some skeptics believed. They've been pushing east and south for quite a while in order to bypass defenses on the north. As of latest reports, Ukraine controls roughly the northern half and Russia the southern half. This is what RFE describes as having "liberated" the city, but their source didn't say that (her actual statement was that "planned military operations are currently underway").trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
The pace of the Uke offensive is accelerating because they have attrited the Russian units in the Robotyne sector and Russia does not have reserves to reinforce. Russia cannot easily move forces from other sectors due to lack of transport and supply, as well as Uke fixing attacks (Kherson, Zapo, Bakhmut). Uke has about 6wks to make it 50 miles thru largely unfortified terrain. Doable. Actually, they only have to make it half that distance to bring Berdyansk under arty barrage and effectively sever the land bridge. Very doable.
Pursuant to that strategy, we can expect to see the Uke "bubble" grow more on the eastern side of the Robtyne salient, again, for obvious reasons - Robotyne is the most tactically significant objective seized yet, for one reason = it is the high ground in the region. From there to Tokmak (and the Sea of Azov), it's all downhill. Uke now holds Robotyne as a defensive anchor to the western flank of their advance. They can be expected to grow the shoulder of their salient mostly on the eastern side, where there are fewer fortifications, and also to threaten the rear of Russian units on the Velyka Novosilka front. (Ideally, the Robotyne and VN fronts merge into a single broad salient...)
You continue to mis-assess what you are watching.
Probably due to all that Russian milblog nonsense you are reading.
this is what it looks like (two days old):
This morning I received the most positive corp intel report in months. Still had the usual caveats, but whatever is happening, the last few days have been the best for Ukraine in some time.
Next objective should be Verbove, to widen the eastern flank of the Uke advance. And fortifications there are exposed to flanking attack. (note the "L-structure" of fortifications in the extreme south-eastern corner of map, above. Hit them right on the north-west corner......)
Then we watch & see.....will they move south along the T0408 toward Novoprokopivka (suggesting Tokmak IS the objective) or toward Romanivske (suggesting they will bypass Tokmak for the Sea of Azov).
Taking Romanivske will complicate Russian supply lines to the their front east of Robotyne, making it easier to further widen the salient to the east. Uke has to widen the salient or else they will have limits on how far they can penetrate.
Then we watch & see.....will they move south along the T0408 toward Novoprokopivka (suggesting Tokmak IS the objective) or toward Romanivske (suggesting they will bypass Tokmak for the Sea of Azov).
Taking Romanivske will complicate Russian supply lines to the their front east of Robotyne, making it easier to further widen the salient to the east. Uke has to widen the salient or else they will have limits on how far they can penetrate.
All that to post a map showing exactly what I just said…Ukes controlling the northern half, Russians in the south.whiterock said:LOL stories & pictures on the internet of Uke Army evacuating citizens from Robotyne, walking thru the abandoned town...... Appreciate you acknowledging my prediction that the line of Uke advance will continue toward the SouthEast of Robotyne. The reasons are obvious - Russian fortifications are constructed to defend Melitopol and Tokmak, pursuant to a strategy of preventing Ukraine from a direct assault on the Crimea via the Svash approaches. However, Uke advances will likely trend southeast of those major fortifications because Melitopol, Tokmak, and Crimea do not appear to be the strategic objectives of the offensive. Sea of Azov appears to be the objective. Sever the roads and rails connecting Melitopol/Tokmak from Rostov, and the entire western end of the Russian front now becomes dependent on Crimea, which is itself easily cut off from Russia by collapsing the Kerch Bridge.Sam Lowry said:We all have our opinions about how it will turn out in the end. I'm talking about facts on the ground today. I agree that Robotyne ultimately doesn't matter, though not for the reasons you think. If Ukraine doesn't get through at least one line of Russian defenses, it will mean they were weaker than even some skeptics believed. They've been pushing east and south for quite a while in order to bypass defenses on the north. As of latest reports, Ukraine controls roughly the northern half and Russia the southern half. This is what RFE describes as having "liberated" the city, but their source didn't say that (her actual statement was that "planned military operations are currently underway").trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
The pace of the Uke offensive is accelerating because they have attrited the Russian units in the Robotyne sector and Russia does not have reserves to reinforce. Russia cannot easily move forces from other sectors due to lack of transport and supply, as well as Uke fixing attacks (Kherson, Zapo, Bakhmut). Uke has about 6wks to make it 50 miles thru largely unfortified terrain. Doable. Actually, they only have to make it half that distance to bring Berdyansk under arty barrage and effectively sever the land bridge. Very doable.
Pursuant to that strategy, we can expect to see the Uke "bubble" grow more on the eastern side of the Robtyne salient, again, for obvious reasons - Robotyne is the most tactically significant objective seized yet, for one reason = it is the high ground in the region. From there to Tokmak (and the Sea of Azov), it's all downhill. Uke now holds Robotyne as a defensive anchor to the western flank of their advance. They can be expected to grow the shoulder of their salient mostly on the eastern side, where there are fewer fortifications, and also to threaten the rear of Russian units on the Velyka Novosilka front. (Ideally, the Robotyne and VN fronts merge into a single broad salient...)
You continue to mis-assess what you are watching.
Probably due to all that Russian milblog nonsense you are reading.
this is what it looks like (two days old):
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22-2023
"The evacuations and the presence of Ukrainian journalists suggests that areas of Robotyne may be relatively secure due to diminished Russian positions in the settlement itself and the nearby area. Russian maximalist claims that Ukrainian forces only maintain positions on the very northern outskirts of the settlement are likely false given the footage and reporting from the 47th Brigade. Most Russian milbloggers continue to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces hold positions in much of northern Robotyne and that Russian forces likely control at most positions on the southern outskirts of the settlement at this time.[4]"
"The evacuations and the presence of Ukrainian journalists suggests that areas of Robotyne may be relatively secure due to diminished Russian positions in the settlement itself and the nearby area. Russian maximalist claims that Ukrainian forces only maintain positions on the very northern outskirts of the settlement are likely false given the footage and reporting from the 47th Brigade. Most Russian milbloggers continue to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces hold positions in much of northern Robotyne and that Russian forces likely control at most positions on the southern outskirts of the settlement at this time.[4]"
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1694043932810953085?s=46&t=3XI9MY1N4HCvyGOQstrA7A
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Y'all really need to start reading past the headlines. ISW lists five sources for the statement in bold. None of them support ISW's claim, and four of them support mine:Bear8084 said:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22-2023
"The evacuations and the presence of Ukrainian journalists suggests that areas of Robotyne may be relatively secure due to diminished Russian positions in the settlement itself and the nearby area. Russian maximalist claims that Ukrainian forces only maintain positions on the very northern outskirts of the settlement are likely false given the footage and reporting from the 47th Brigade. Most Russian milbloggers continue to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces hold positions in much of northern Robotyne and that Russian forces likely control at most positions on the southern outskirts of the settlement at this time.[4]"
1) "Rabotino reported heavy bloody battles in the center of the village."
2) "According to the fighters, control is also 50/50, they are hiding in the basements, they are covered, one Bradley drove in - got it from the ATGM and that's all."
3) "Most of the village is located in the gray zone, which is hit by artillery and aircraft."
4) "At the moment, at least half of the village of Rabotino is behind the enemy."
Video supports their's, vatnik.
LOL Sam. Geez, buddy….Ever heard of "mopping up" actions? Below, Russia appears to be beginning contingency preps for withdrawal of their western deployments.
(Perekop is an ancient battleground. Interesting history available via Google search. medieval fortress ruins may see action once again. )
(Perekop is an ancient battleground. Interesting history available via Google search. medieval fortress ruins may see action once again. )
Russian forces appear concerned about recent Ukrainian advances in the #Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. https://t.co/QhLUIYJy8Q https://t.co/zg9KPB5pU6 pic.twitter.com/ec6i2Be3Ov
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 23, 2023
Again, we all have opinions. I've been watching Robotyne pretty much daily since the Ukrainian offensive started, and I've lost count of how many times parts of it have changed hands. Same with Klishchiivka, which Russians appeared ready to abandon several times but never did. We'll see what happens.whiterock said:
LOL Sam. Geez, buddy….Ever heard of "mopping up" actions? Below, Russia appears to be beginning contingency preps for withdrawal of their western deployments.
(Perekop is an ancient battleground. Interesting history available via Google search. medieval fortress ruins may see action once again. )Russian forces appear concerned about recent Ukrainian advances in the #Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. https://t.co/QhLUIYJy8Q https://t.co/zg9KPB5pU6 pic.twitter.com/ec6i2Be3Ov
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 23, 2023
Never mind what I said about reading past the headlines...maybe you just need to start reading!Bear8084 said:
Video supports their's, vatnik.
Sam Lowry said:Never mind what I said about reading past the headlines...maybe you just need to start reading!Bear8084 said:
Video supports their's, vatnik.
You should try too vatnik.
Welp…appears that Prighozin and up to 9 others were killed today. Seems his private jet was shot down in Russia.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
trey3216 said:
Welp…appears that Prighozin and up to 9 others were killed today. Seems his private jet was shot down in Russia.
Indeed. Excellent example of the kind of regime Sam and many others believe we need to engage with to ensure stability in East Europe and Central Asia.
Russians defecting to Ukraine.
Because Russia is winning.
Because Russia is winning.
“A Russian combat helicopter Mi-8 together with the entire crew arrived in Ukraine and surrendered to the Armed Forces,” Yuriy Butusov reports. Russian air force related channels said the helicopter got lost due to navigational errors..
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 23, 2023
This looks to be the first deliberate… pic.twitter.com/EL8pEVrG1t
Called that one back in June.trey3216 said:
Welp…appears that Prighozin and up to 9 others were killed today. Seems his private jet was shot down in Russia.
Yes, very brutal. That's probably why Bin Salman didn't invite them to the peace summit.whiterock said:trey3216 said:
Welp…appears that Prighozin and up to 9 others were killed today. Seems his private jet was shot down in Russia.
Indeed. Excellent example of the kind of regime Sam and many others believe we need to engage with to ensure stability in East Europe and Central Asia.
Sam Lowry said:Called that one back in June.trey3216 said:
Welp…appears that Prighozin and up to 9 others were killed today. Seems his private jet was shot down in Russia.
Other than there's a more than minuscule chance that it's for show.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
As I suspected, Ukes trying to broaden the salient eastwards. It exposes a corner of the 2nd Russian line to an attack as shown by the green arrow (apologize for the crude mark-up). When captured, that position flanks fortifications to the west, and opens a pathway to Verbove, which is the obvious supply depot for fortifications to the east, making further Russian defense there problematic.whiterock said:LOL stories & pictures on the internet of Uke Army evacuating citizens from Robotyne, walking thru the abandoned town...... Appreciate you acknowledging my prediction that the line of Uke advance will continue toward the SouthEast of Robotyne. The reasons are obvious - Russian fortifications are constructed to defend Melitopol and Tokmak, pursuant to a strategy of preventing Ukraine from a direct assault on the Crimea via the Svash approaches. However, Uke advances will likely trend southeast of those major fortifications because Melitopol, Tokmak, and Crimea do not appear to be the strategic objectives of the offensive. Sea of Azov appears to be the objective. Sever the roads and rails connecting Melitopol/Tokmak from Rostov, and the entire western end of the Russian front now becomes dependent on Crimea, which is itself easily cut off from Russia by collapsing the Kerch Bridge.Sam Lowry said:We all have our opinions about how it will turn out in the end. I'm talking about facts on the ground today. I agree that Robotyne ultimately doesn't matter, though not for the reasons you think. If Ukraine doesn't get through at least one line of Russian defenses, it will mean they were weaker than even some skeptics believed. They've been pushing east and south for quite a while in order to bypass defenses on the north. As of latest reports, Ukraine controls roughly the northern half and Russia the southern half. This is what RFE describes as having "liberated" the city, but their source didn't say that (her actual statement was that "planned military operations are currently underway").trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
The pace of the Uke offensive is accelerating because they have attrited the Russian units in the Robotyne sector and Russia does not have reserves to reinforce. Russia cannot easily move forces from other sectors due to lack of transport and supply, as well as Uke fixing attacks (Kherson, Zapo, Bakhmut). Uke has about 6wks to make it 50 miles thru largely unfortified terrain. Doable. Actually, they only have to make it half that distance to bring Berdyansk under arty barrage and effectively sever the land bridge. Very doable.
Pursuant to that strategy, we can expect to see the Uke "bubble" grow more on the eastern side of the Robtyne salient, again, for obvious reasons - Robotyne is the most tactically significant objective seized yet, for one reason = it is the high ground in the region. From there to Tokmak (and the Sea of Azov), it's all downhill. Uke now holds Robotyne as a defensive anchor to the western flank of their advance. They can be expected to grow the shoulder of their salient mostly on the eastern side, where there are fewer fortifications, and also to threaten the rear of Russian units on the Velyka Novosilka front. (Ideally, the Robotyne and VN fronts merge into a single broad salient...)
You continue to mis-assess what you are watching.
Probably due to all that Russian milblog nonsense you are reading.
this is what it looks like (two days old):
ISW explaining somewhat more clearly what I've been discussing previously....how the Robotyne and VN axes appear to be in support of one another. It is increasingly apparent they the primary effort, while the other three offensive actions are more properly understood as fixing attacks.
Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for #Ukraine to concentrate all available… https://t.co/I0Otiacdgz pic.twitter.com/kh35xlksQq
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 23, 2023
Ukrainians carried out a special forces amphibious landing assault on the Tarkhankut Peninsula in Crimea this morning. Took out an S-400 battery and some other things.
You love to see it.
You love to see it.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
Uke General Staff channeling Liddell-Hart and the indirect approach.trey3216 said:
Ukrainians carried out a special forces amphibious landing assault on the Tarkhankut Peninsula in Crimea this morning. Took out an S-400 battery and some other things.
You love to see it.
"Throughout the ages, effective results in war have rarely been attained unless the approach has had such indirectness as to ensure the opponent's unreadiness to meet it… In strategy, the longest way round is often the shortest way home."
Uke is using limited pressure on the Russian fortifications while pummeling Russian supply lines and arty tubes, with drone strikes on Russian naval and air assets throughout Russia, drone special forces raids like this one on Crimea, etc.... Uke has presented Russia with a need to reinforce everywhere at once. Uke has still not engaged in a full armored assault, yet Russia is being slowly attritted at numerous points in the line and rear, and Russian morale is at a nadir. Can the Russians hold out until the fall rains turn the fields too muddy for armored vehicles?
https://classicsofstrategy.com/2016/01/19/liddell-hart-strategy-1954/
whiterock said:As I suspected, Ukes trying to broaden the salient eastwards. It exposes a corner of the 2nd Russian line to an attack as shown by the green arrow (apologize for the crude mark-up). When captured, that position flanks fortifications to the west, and opens a pathway to Verbove, which is the obvious supply depot for fortifications to the east, making further Russian defense there problematic.whiterock said:LOL stories & pictures on the internet of Uke Army evacuating citizens from Robotyne, walking thru the abandoned town...... Appreciate you acknowledging my prediction that the line of Uke advance will continue toward the SouthEast of Robotyne. The reasons are obvious - Russian fortifications are constructed to defend Melitopol and Tokmak, pursuant to a strategy of preventing Ukraine from a direct assault on the Crimea via the Svash approaches. However, Uke advances will likely trend southeast of those major fortifications because Melitopol, Tokmak, and Crimea do not appear to be the strategic objectives of the offensive. Sea of Azov appears to be the objective. Sever the roads and rails connecting Melitopol/Tokmak from Rostov, and the entire western end of the Russian front now becomes dependent on Crimea, which is itself easily cut off from Russia by collapsing the Kerch Bridge.Sam Lowry said:We all have our opinions about how it will turn out in the end. I'm talking about facts on the ground today. I agree that Robotyne ultimately doesn't matter, though not for the reasons you think. If Ukraine doesn't get through at least one line of Russian defenses, it will mean they were weaker than even some skeptics believed. They've been pushing east and south for quite a while in order to bypass defenses on the north. As of latest reports, Ukraine controls roughly the northern half and Russia the southern half. This is what RFE describes as having "liberated" the city, but their source didn't say that (her actual statement was that "planned military operations are currently underway").trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
The pace of the Uke offensive is accelerating because they have attrited the Russian units in the Robotyne sector and Russia does not have reserves to reinforce. Russia cannot easily move forces from other sectors due to lack of transport and supply, as well as Uke fixing attacks (Kherson, Zapo, Bakhmut). Uke has about 6wks to make it 50 miles thru largely unfortified terrain. Doable. Actually, they only have to make it half that distance to bring Berdyansk under arty barrage and effectively sever the land bridge. Very doable.
Pursuant to that strategy, we can expect to see the Uke "bubble" grow more on the eastern side of the Robtyne salient, again, for obvious reasons - Robotyne is the most tactically significant objective seized yet, for one reason = it is the high ground in the region. From there to Tokmak (and the Sea of Azov), it's all downhill. Uke now holds Robotyne as a defensive anchor to the western flank of their advance. They can be expected to grow the shoulder of their salient mostly on the eastern side, where there are fewer fortifications, and also to threaten the rear of Russian units on the Velyka Novosilka front. (Ideally, the Robotyne and VN fronts merge into a single broad salient...)
You continue to mis-assess what you are watching.
Probably due to all that Russian milblog nonsense you are reading.
this is what it looks like (two days old):
Todays geolocated position map, with blue area indicating new advances (roughly tracking with the green line I drew on the map above).
whiterock said:whiterock said:As I suspected, Ukes trying to broaden the salient eastwards. It exposes a corner of the 2nd Russian line to an attack as shown by the green arrow (apologize for the crude mark-up). When captured, that position flanks fortifications to the west, and opens a pathway to Verbove, which is the obvious supply depot for fortifications to the east, making further Russian defense there problematic.whiterock said:LOL stories & pictures on the internet of Uke Army evacuating citizens from Robotyne, walking thru the abandoned town...... Appreciate you acknowledging my prediction that the line of Uke advance will continue toward the SouthEast of Robotyne. The reasons are obvious - Russian fortifications are constructed to defend Melitopol and Tokmak, pursuant to a strategy of preventing Ukraine from a direct assault on the Crimea via the Svash approaches. However, Uke advances will likely trend southeast of those major fortifications because Melitopol, Tokmak, and Crimea do not appear to be the strategic objectives of the offensive. Sea of Azov appears to be the objective. Sever the roads and rails connecting Melitopol/Tokmak from Rostov, and the entire western end of the Russian front now becomes dependent on Crimea, which is itself easily cut off from Russia by collapsing the Kerch Bridge.Sam Lowry said:We all have our opinions about how it will turn out in the end. I'm talking about facts on the ground today. I agree that Robotyne ultimately doesn't matter, though not for the reasons you think. If Ukraine doesn't get through at least one line of Russian defenses, it will mean they were weaker than even some skeptics believed. They've been pushing east and south for quite a while in order to bypass defenses on the north. As of latest reports, Ukraine controls roughly the northern half and Russia the southern half. This is what RFE describes as having "liberated" the city, but their source didn't say that (her actual statement was that "planned military operations are currently underway").trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
The pace of the Uke offensive is accelerating because they have attrited the Russian units in the Robotyne sector and Russia does not have reserves to reinforce. Russia cannot easily move forces from other sectors due to lack of transport and supply, as well as Uke fixing attacks (Kherson, Zapo, Bakhmut). Uke has about 6wks to make it 50 miles thru largely unfortified terrain. Doable. Actually, they only have to make it half that distance to bring Berdyansk under arty barrage and effectively sever the land bridge. Very doable.
Pursuant to that strategy, we can expect to see the Uke "bubble" grow more on the eastern side of the Robtyne salient, again, for obvious reasons - Robotyne is the most tactically significant objective seized yet, for one reason = it is the high ground in the region. From there to Tokmak (and the Sea of Azov), it's all downhill. Uke now holds Robotyne as a defensive anchor to the western flank of their advance. They can be expected to grow the shoulder of their salient mostly on the eastern side, where there are fewer fortifications, and also to threaten the rear of Russian units on the Velyka Novosilka front. (Ideally, the Robotyne and VN fronts merge into a single broad salient...)
You continue to mis-assess what you are watching.
Probably due to all that Russian milblog nonsense you are reading.
this is what it looks like (two days old):
Todays geolocated position map, with blue area indicating new advances (roughly tracking with the green line I drew on the map above).
Not to mention a lot of vatnik chatter says the Ukes are already in Novoprokopivka, saying it's an absolute slaughter of the Russian lines there.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
all kinds of stuff on the Russian blogs about that. Some chatter about Uke formations of 80, 200, 500, etc....armored vehicles. Typically, though, they will hype up the strength of the Uke attacks in order to increase the significance of any Russian successes, or make any setbacks seem more glorious.trey3216 said:whiterock said:whiterock said:As I suspected, Ukes trying to broaden the salient eastwards. It exposes a corner of the 2nd Russian line to an attack as shown by the green arrow (apologize for the crude mark-up). When captured, that position flanks fortifications to the west, and opens a pathway to Verbove, which is the obvious supply depot for fortifications to the east, making further Russian defense there problematic.whiterock said:LOL stories & pictures on the internet of Uke Army evacuating citizens from Robotyne, walking thru the abandoned town...... Appreciate you acknowledging my prediction that the line of Uke advance will continue toward the SouthEast of Robotyne. The reasons are obvious - Russian fortifications are constructed to defend Melitopol and Tokmak, pursuant to a strategy of preventing Ukraine from a direct assault on the Crimea via the Svash approaches. However, Uke advances will likely trend southeast of those major fortifications because Melitopol, Tokmak, and Crimea do not appear to be the strategic objectives of the offensive. Sea of Azov appears to be the objective. Sever the roads and rails connecting Melitopol/Tokmak from Rostov, and the entire western end of the Russian front now becomes dependent on Crimea, which is itself easily cut off from Russia by collapsing the Kerch Bridge.Sam Lowry said:We all have our opinions about how it will turn out in the end. I'm talking about facts on the ground today. I agree that Robotyne ultimately doesn't matter, though not for the reasons you think. If Ukraine doesn't get through at least one line of Russian defenses, it will mean they were weaker than even some skeptics believed. They've been pushing east and south for quite a while in order to bypass defenses on the north. As of latest reports, Ukraine controls roughly the northern half and Russia the southern half. This is what RFE describes as having "liberated" the city, but their source didn't say that (her actual statement was that "planned military operations are currently underway").trey3216 said:Sam Lowry said:
I don't do reading comprehension lessons any more. Try again and best of luck!
I mean, we were still on the field in the 4th quarter last year against Kansas St, but that game was lost.
Just because fighting is still ongoing in parts of the town doesn't mean what you think it means. Ukraine has already pushed south and east of there as well.
The pace of the Uke offensive is accelerating because they have attrited the Russian units in the Robotyne sector and Russia does not have reserves to reinforce. Russia cannot easily move forces from other sectors due to lack of transport and supply, as well as Uke fixing attacks (Kherson, Zapo, Bakhmut). Uke has about 6wks to make it 50 miles thru largely unfortified terrain. Doable. Actually, they only have to make it half that distance to bring Berdyansk under arty barrage and effectively sever the land bridge. Very doable.
Pursuant to that strategy, we can expect to see the Uke "bubble" grow more on the eastern side of the Robtyne salient, again, for obvious reasons - Robotyne is the most tactically significant objective seized yet, for one reason = it is the high ground in the region. From there to Tokmak (and the Sea of Azov), it's all downhill. Uke now holds Robotyne as a defensive anchor to the western flank of their advance. They can be expected to grow the shoulder of their salient mostly on the eastern side, where there are fewer fortifications, and also to threaten the rear of Russian units on the Velyka Novosilka front. (Ideally, the Robotyne and VN fronts merge into a single broad salient...)
You continue to mis-assess what you are watching.
Probably due to all that Russian milblog nonsense you are reading.
this is what it looks like (two days old):
Todays geolocated position map, with blue area indicating new advances (roughly tracking with the green line I drew on the map above).
Not to mention a lot of vatnik chatter says the Ukes are already in Novoprokopivka, saying it's an absolute slaughter of the Russian lines there.
Does appear, though, that Ukes are advancing BOTH toward Novoprokopivka and Verbove. That's not remarkable. They do need both. But it does leave open whether or not Tokmak is the primary objective. And to that end, there are reports on the Russian blogs about Russians starting preps for withdrawal of Tokmak. To extent true, I would not interpret they are actually preparing to withdraw. its normal to start making preps as a contingency. US Embassies, for example, do document purges well in advance of any active threat to the facility. It's getting the basics out of the way to speed up emergency actions at go-time. So the real analytical significance to those reports (if true) would be that the Russians recognize that Uke advances now credibly threaten Tokmak.
The "slaughter" comments, though, are instructive. Russians are STILL reflexively counter-attacking every Uke advance. Instantly. No matter what. On orders from the Kremlin. Insanity.
They should be doing a fighting withdrawal, from one trench to another, trading ground for a dear price. But they are literally launching assaults every time a position is lost. That of course diminishes the value of the trenches in the first place, turning the defender into the attacker, forcing Russia to incur the same or worse casualty rates as the Ukes.
Russia has so often had overwhelming superiority in manpower, they just cannot conceive of fighting in scenarios where they don't. It's guaranteeing their eventual defeat, because in Ukraine, they do not have manpower superiority. Or any other kind of superiority. They are literally fighting with WWII-era stuff now.
They should be doing a fighting withdrawal, from one trench to another, trading ground for a dear price. But they are literally launching assaults every time a position is lost. That of course diminishes the value of the trenches in the first place, turning the defender into the attacker, forcing Russia to incur the same or worse casualty rates as the Ukes.
Russia has so often had overwhelming superiority in manpower, they just cannot conceive of fighting in scenarios where they don't. It's guaranteeing their eventual defeat, because in Ukraine, they do not have manpower superiority. Or any other kind of superiority. They are literally fighting with WWII-era stuff now.
Not a word true.whiterock said:
The "slaughter" comments, though, are instructive. Russians are STILL reflexively counter-attacking every Uke advance. Instantly. No matter what. On orders from the Kremlin. Insanity.
They should be doing a fighting withdrawal, from one trench to another, trading ground for a dear price. But they are literally launching assaults every time a position is lost. That of course diminishes the value of the trenches in the first place, turning the defender into the attacker, forcing Russia to incur the same or worse casualty rates as the Ukes.
Russia has so often had overwhelming superiority in manpower, they just cannot conceive of fighting in scenarios where they don't. It's guaranteeing their eventual defeat, because in Ukraine, they do not have manpower superiority. Or any other kind of superiority. They are literally fighting with WWII-era stuff now.
you really are bad at this, you know.Sam Lowry said:Not a word true.whiterock said:
The "slaughter" comments, though, are instructive. Russians are STILL reflexively counter-attacking every Uke advance. Instantly. No matter what. On orders from the Kremlin. Insanity.
They should be doing a fighting withdrawal, from one trench to another, trading ground for a dear price. But they are literally launching assaults every time a position is lost. That of course diminishes the value of the trenches in the first place, turning the defender into the attacker, forcing Russia to incur the same or worse casualty rates as the Ukes.
Russia has so often had overwhelming superiority in manpower, they just cannot conceive of fighting in scenarios where they don't. It's guaranteeing their eventual defeat, because in Ukraine, they do not have manpower superiority. Or any other kind of superiority. They are literally fighting with WWII-era stuff now.
Map showing confirmed geo-located positions as of 25 August extending to northern edges of Novoprokopivka. Uke opsec is quite good, so geo-located positions 1m from Novoprokopivka would indicate a logistical base for an ongoing battle in the village itself.
Yesterday, fmr US military operators posted OSINT evidence of Russian arty strikes SOUTH of Ichenkove, suggesting Uke units are in contact with Russian troops well south of Novoprokopivka. if true, we should be seeing ISW commentary on that by Mon-Tues timeframe. Best guess at this point is that the Uke units targeted were a raid/blocking force that may have been withdrawn. If so, the nature of this particular phase of the battle is quite a bit more fluid than what we've been watching the last 70-80 days.
Looks like Ukes are making rapid, steady advances up to the engineered portions (ditches, dragon's teeth) of the Surovkin line. The Uke battle plan thus far has been to make limited advances to invite Russian counterattacks in order to degrade Russian units and supplies, to "starve the bear" before attacking. The decision to move rapidly forward to the engineered line suggests Uke command assesses that their attrition has degraded enough that Russia does not have the manpower to effectively defend the engineered line. We will soon see if that assessment bears up.
Yesterday, fmr US military operators posted OSINT evidence of Russian arty strikes SOUTH of Ichenkove, suggesting Uke units are in contact with Russian troops well south of Novoprokopivka. if true, we should be seeing ISW commentary on that by Mon-Tues timeframe. Best guess at this point is that the Uke units targeted were a raid/blocking force that may have been withdrawn. If so, the nature of this particular phase of the battle is quite a bit more fluid than what we've been watching the last 70-80 days.
Looks like Ukes are making rapid, steady advances up to the engineered portions (ditches, dragon's teeth) of the Surovkin line. The Uke battle plan thus far has been to make limited advances to invite Russian counterattacks in order to degrade Russian units and supplies, to "starve the bear" before attacking. The decision to move rapidly forward to the engineered line suggests Uke command assesses that their attrition has degraded enough that Russia does not have the manpower to effectively defend the engineered line. We will soon see if that assessment bears up.
Oh, the suspense.whiterock said:
Looks like Ukes are making rapid, steady advances up to the engineered portions (ditches, dragon's teeth) of the Surovkin line. The Uke battle plan thus far has been to make limited advances to invite Russian counterattacks in order to degrade Russian units and supplies, to "starve the bear" before attacking. The decision to move rapidly forward to the engineered line suggests Uke command assesses that their attrition has degraded enough that Russia does not have the manpower to effectively defend the engineered line. We will soon see if that assessment bears up.