Mothra said:
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VP candidates for the Trump ticket?
LMAO!
You guys are a hoot...
The commentary is not advocacy, just noting that at this time Trump at the top of the ticket remains the most likely scenario.
For now. Let's wait and see if Americans wise up once DeSantic throws his hat in the ring.
Trump isn't going to have his pick of VP candidates, IMO, due to his toxicity. I suspect he goes with an outsider as opposed to anyone that runs against him.
Not a chance DeSantis joins the destined-for-failure revenge tour.
Trump toxicity is an issue. So is Biden toxicity. Trump's should remain static; not so Biden's.
I noticed and couldn't save the link = there was a poll out today showing that RDS has lost 5pts on the "should run" question since Nov. My hunch then (Nov) was that the mid-terms and related spin would harm Trump in the short-term but that it was likely he'd bounce back to historical norms. That has basically happened in the GOP primary. Now, to watch the trend in polling against Biden. Everything is set up for Biden to crater. He is president. He is a weak leader. He has sold out to the woke brigades. he has very harmful policies in place across the full range of issues. And Trump should start attacking him relentlessly.
Not saying it couldn't settle in where it is now, or trend further in Biden's direction. Just looking at the pressures on the plates and making an assessment where they should move.
Trump hasn't rebounded from the midterms. His numbers have improved, but there is a reason that DeSantis is now winning many of the polls against him. His midterm showing, and Trump's poor showing, has affected the polls.
Agree that the mid-terms harmed Trumps numbers. Particularly early. But in the GOP primary polling they have rebounded from the lows (10-20pt improvement) and are approaching pre-mid-term numbers. DeSantis has hit a ceiling and in some polls and metrics has receded a few points. This is what we should have expected. The mid-term results were unexpected, disappointing, and the establishment struck the first messaging blow, thereby establishing the narrative. But Trumps base is large and solid. And now he's declared and campaigning while his biggest critics and most formidable potential have official duties which limit the time and energy they can devote to taking out Trump.
And one other factor : Trump hate is a strong potion, and not everybody has it. There are an awful lot of voters, General and primary, who understand and largely cede the negatives cited about Trump but (unlike the Trump critics) weigh them against attributes he brings to the table. Trump critics can see no attributes, ergo they cannot understand the man's enduring strength with voters. Nor can they even vaguely allow that circumstances might change in his favor.
They guy is still the most likely nominee.
We can't start slobbering or blubbering about it.
We just have to win.
Trumps unfavorability remains around 54%. His favorability remains 40%. That's about the same as it was after the midterms.
In short, if he's the nominee, this election is going to turn out just like the last one.
Looks like it will be another 6 years of democrat rule. Trump isn't winning anything.
your analysis is consistently static.
1) it fails to account for Biden's favorability numbers. They are almost as bad now and will likely worsen.
2) it fails to account for the possibility of change in the favorability numbers of either candidate. They fluctuate.
3) people do vote for candidates they don't like, particularly when both of the nominees are unlikeable
I am very sympathetic to the argument that it would be wise to move on from Trump. But that doesn't mean it's not possible to re-elect Trump. More to the point, we need to think harder about HOW to re-elect Trump, because at this point he's the likely nominee.
None of that is advocacy. It's reality.
Respectfully, your posts on these boards have gone far beyond merely stating what you call "reality." You have consistently been critical or at least have engaged in hypotheticals about potential candidates such as RDS, even suggesting at one point without evidence that DeSantis may have had an affair. And yet when anyone points out Trump's terrible conduct, you are quick to defend or downplay. Perhaps it's because of some sort of bunker mentality since you feel he will be the nominee. I'm not sure but it certainly borders on advocacy or at the very least goes far beyond merely stating the facts.
I leave open the possibility Trump can win, which I stated earlier on this very thread. That is why I will vote for him if he's the nominee. But because he's his own worst enemy, I'm very realistic about his chances. To win he would have to do something that's never been done in the history of our country - all the while remaining extremely unpopular with the American public. Don't kid yourself - the filters, what little he had, are off. He will be unhinged on his revenge tour. And he remains toxic. Relying on the other candidate to be even less popular for a loser candidate is not a good strategy.
Remember how terribly wrong you were in assessing the pulse of the American public before the midterms? You are equally wrong here. Wait and see.
A lot of people who'd been right in prior races were wrong in 2022, too, and looking back we can see why. Democrat focus on mail-in voting renders the old adage about "likely voter" polling typically being more reliable than "all adult" polling less meaningful, because mail-in voting pulls in lots & lots of unlikely voters. So the guys who got it right in 2016, 2018, and 2020, got it wrong in 2022 (and vice versa for the guys who got it right in 2022). More to the point, I was spot on about how the polling numbers would generally flow from Nov-Feb. Also, time appears to be ratifying my assessment that Biden would likely be the Dem nominee. I haven't made such a prediction from there, other than Trump will be a very tough out. Yes, he can be defeated. But it's too early to see a victory plan for anyone else. At Trump's current polling levels, it's already over. the only question is, what could make those numbers change?
You continue to argue beyond what was stated or implied. I didn't defend as true the attacks suggesting RDS had a womanizing problem. I analyzed them. You asserted they were outrageous and hypocritical. I responded that campaigns usually have SOMETHING to seize upon to create such questions, and that you had completely missed the benefit of such an attack - removing a bright line of distinction between the two candidates. IF DeSantis has had one or more peccadillos, then the womanizing issue which harms Trump becomes a wash, and both candidates will avoid it. Noting the bloody obvious about what those questions/issues might be is hardly engaging in the attack itself. A dashing Ivy League educated Navy SEAL probably did have more fun back in the day than the average Joe. To the extent some sunlight shines on that, it might create questions about what else we don't know. All of that is good campaign strategy. Trump has a lot of patina on him. The one thing he'll struggle against is the night in shining armor. So he's got to scuff up his opponents. He's good at that.
Politics is a tough game. Better to vet these guys in the primary. Get it all out, so we can move past it. RDS is a big boy. He can handle it. And Haley is no blushing violet. She had a brutal race to get elected Gov in SC. Tough lady.
Obama had bad approval numbers in 2012. He shouldn't have won. Romney's pollsters (neverTrumpers all) were expecting to win on election night. But Obama did what he had to do - made his opponent look worse. I have said many, many times here: an unpopular incumbent has only one pathway to victory - make his opponent look even scarier. So get ready for a very nasty race. Both men are, effectively, unpopular incumbents. The one in office with a bad record should be at a disadvantage against the one who actually quite a good record in office.
