And yet you have zero problem with the "working poor" paying more for everything they buy. They will be the ones that suffer the most in the world of Trump's tariffs.KaiBear said:More of your pointless word jumbles. I pay what is needed to keep good / loyal workers.RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:You are the reason we will soon have $25 Happy Meals and $8,000 I-Phones. The ironic part is that many of the Trump tariff cheerleaders will have to take out payday loans to pay for them. Sooooooo much winning!KaiBear said:RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:You know we live in a great country when people paid $30 an hour are in poverty. (According to the logic of KAI.) In the words of your not yet late great President, "C'mon Maaannnnnnnn!!!!!!KaiBear said:RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:America is at close to full employment. The only people without a job don't want a job.TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:Yes, after World War II we quickly became the greatest country on earth. Reset from the Smoot -Hawley Act (tariffs) and the Great Depression. The United States is not a victim that has been so taken advantage of. No matter how many times Donald Trump says we are. As a proud American, playing the victim is just not acceptable to me. To each his own.KaiBear said:RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:Most well thought out and detailed post, ATL. Excellent explanation. Would give you five stars if I could. The heyday of tariffs in the U.S. was at a time when people drove a horse and buggy and outhouses were a luxury. We sure as Hell don't want to go back there. Trump is trying to impose a 20th century policy on a 21st century economy. It does not fit.ATL Bear said:You continue to lack an understanding of capital markets. The idea that this "structural trade deficit" will collapse the dollar is completely disconnected from how the dollar maintains its strength, through capital demand, not a trade ledger. The moment other countries stop wanting U.S. assets is the moment we should worry, not when we're running a deficit in goods. If you're looking for the true existential threat to the dollar, it's not the trade deficit, it's the federal budget deficit. What threatens dollar stability isn't Americans buying too many goods from abroad; it's Congress spending far more than it raises in revenue year after year. So instead of torching trade flows that actually attract investment (which you tout for your man when it serves you) and support dollar strength, maybe focus on the one variable that is within our control, our inability to govern responsibly.whiterock said:Have stated many, many times that our trade deficit is an advantage in trade negotiations, as those nations in surplus with us have no hope of replacing our markets (should they be frozen out), that even temporary disruptions would throw their economies into recession. (so they have powerful incentives to "compromise.")ATL Bear said:Agree that I like our hand much better than theirs. Primarily because they are so reliant on exports (are you coming around? lol). I fully acknowledge a whole host of problems that China has, which have been brewing for years. We have some weaknesses that China will expose, we just haven't been hit by them yet as they are lagging factors. I hope both can work out a reasoned solution to minimize the damage. When the world catches a cold, America gets sick too.whiterock said:China is an ancient culture with a mindset that they are the civilized and everyone else is something less. Yes, they think long term - in centuries - but that is not in any real sense an tremendous advantage. It's tends to lead to "just do nothing and it'll all work out....time will bring things back our way."...etc....and other platitudes to justify inaction. Yes, they plan in 10yr horizons, but the overriding lesson of the 20th century is that central planning does not work. As you note, their demonstrations have been rising since COVID (in no small part because of growing imbalances in their own system. Supply chains have started to trickle away from China organically (for a longish list of reasons). That make them more rather than less vulnerable to stochastic disruptions like sudden tariff increases. All of that works to our favor.ATL Bear said:China's economy has been struggling to recover since COVID. Worker protests have been on the rise for some time.Assassin said:It's everywhereBUDOS said:
And where did you go to find the truth ?
https://www.fairobserver.com/economics/the-enigma-of-chinas-debt-crisis-explained/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/business/economy/guangzhou-china-exports-tariffs.html
Immediate term conditions also favor us. China has no hope of landing enough deals to replace our markets. There are no other markets like ours....a quarter of the entire world GDP. They will have to build production for other things, other places,(which will not come close to replacing what they stand to lose from getting frozen out of our market). Those problems require solutions on a timeline of years bordering on decades. And those years will not be kind to China. It is for a log period of decline, for a long-list of reasons.
China never honors trade agreements anyway. In that sense it's irrelevant whether a trade agreement is reached or not. One could argue that they'd probably rather cut a deal to regain certainty of what the rules are, so they can figure out how to skirt them and also know what to expect from us. And while they're grappling with what to do about that (short term thinking is not their strength, anyway), Trump will keep using the bully pulpit to force corporate leadership to realize that it's just too risky to have much exposure to China.
Trump critics must, to some degree, build a case with a predicate that China is strong without problems while we are weak and full of problems.....that it is is we who should tread more carefully, not China. That is an inversion of reality. EACH of us have strengths and weaknesses. I'd rather play our hand than theirs.
reliance on exports for power (as China does and we once did) is a viable plan.
reliance on imports for power (as we are doing) is a viable plan.
both plans have pros/cons.
You have to make sure the pros outweigh the cons relative to the geostrategic problems you face.
BALANCE is never a bad idea.
BALANCE creates few problems = sustainable indefinitely.
And when you are unsustainably out of balance, every step back toward balance is a benefit.
Right now, we are wildly, unsustainably out of balance, decades of escalating structural trade deficits. And if we don't fix that, the strong dollar policy regime will fail, and we will be in the proverbial world of hurt. Same for key industries - mining, steel production, shipbuilding, etc... We are at shocking disadvantages versus our primary adversary. Trump is working those problems (and more) exceedingly well.
If our trade deficit truly is the powerful negotiating asset you claim it to be, and ironically, I agree with that framing, then why the need for sledgehammer tariffs? If we already hold the leverage, why are we posturing with 50% tariff threats like a desperate actor bluffing from a weak hand, rather than negotiating from a position of confidence and economic strength?
The truth is, you and much of the MAGA chorus have over-invested in this dystopian narrative of trade driven American decline, a narrative completely disconnected from economic reality. The U.S. economy generates and consumes 85% of its GDP domestically. That domestic engine alone is larger than any other economy in the world. We don't need to chase 1950s industrial supremacy to be strong, we already lead where it matters: in high-value manufacturing, aerospace, technology, intellectual property, capital markets, and services.
No serious economist is suggesting we outproduce China in bulk steel, and pretending we should is a misreading of modern strategic priorities. What we need is resilient, strategic production capacity, not a full-scale industrial re-enactment of a bygone era. His reversal on the Nippon Steel deal is a positive development in that direction.
Trump's trade approach isn't solving problems "exceedingly well", it's trying to reboot the CD-ROM era in a cloud-based economy. You don't strengthen the future by tethering it to a world that no longer exists. At least you've come around on the benefits of foreign investment (why our capital markets are a primary strength) that can actually fuel the types of industry we need.
Trump is attempting to restore fair international trade relations.
Which were given away step by step beginning with the Marshal Plan at the end of WW2.
LOL, American blue collar workers having to compete against slave labor, child labor, pollutors, trade manipulators, IP and tech thieves, dystopian controlled societies. And why? Not because America had to. America could easily have a lead the West to ensure all international trading partners had decent standards. But no, the "proud American worker" was told to suck it up and look for a new jobs so globalists could profit.
I mean it's apparently wrong for the Western societies to pollute and steal, and to use child labor and near slavery and untenable working conditions. It's wrong that is, unless you are a globalist financier who just gets other nations people to be their slave.
You may want to pretend that you've not been taking advantage of, but our US society would look much healthier without a blind adherance to corporate globalist financiers who were happy to sell out our communities.
Don't worry tho, they're still in control, you'll get your faux gains while their inflation slowly outpaces your gains. So just relax, the financiers have a strangle hold on our economies. So you'll get back to the status quo of boom and bust cycles that are the norm for a debt based monetary system.
Donald Trump has convinced you we are victims. We are not. You are not alone. Our country is now made up of too many people not willing to work and too many curling up in the fetal position. I am fed up with this crap!!!
Far too many Americans are paid under 30 dollars an hour.
They are part of your 'full employment' but in reality are very poor.
You should seriously think about moving to California. Sounds like you would fit in well there.
Dude ; get real.
I currently pay my summer part time help 30 dollars an hour.
But their parents pay for college.
With today's costs…….30 dollars an hour doesn't provide much over the most minimal of necessities.
Many such people work two jobs just to get by.
Now on some level you already know all this. So you are just being ridiculous.
The point remains your 'full employment' is not a legitimate assessment.
Too many Americans would be more accurately described as the working poor. Working 40-60 hours a week to have a taxable income of less than 60k per year.
And for a family of four a taxable income of 60k doesn't come close to getting it done.
I don't have a high opinion of Vance...but his autobiography gives a compelling decription on how the loss of manufacturing jobs is destroying middle America; destroying small town America.
But if all one cares about is his China made Wal Mart crap no amount of literature or data will work its way through.
"Stand with anyone when he is right; Stand with him while he is right and part with him when he goes wrong." - Abraham Lincoln
