whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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“THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” has PASSED the House of Representatives! This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country! The Bill includes MASSIVE Tax CUTS, No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, Tax Deductions when…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 22, 2025

Ok. Someone please make the argument about how this is "the most significant piece of legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!"

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Big omnibus packages invariably do have lots to like (and hate). There is a lot to like in this bill. Here's a very short list, of just the last minute changes made to get the bill passed:
https://ijr.com/what-changed-overnight-key-revisions-to-the-big-beautiful-bill-explained/

Note there are aggressively short deadlines for investments to occur on the energy stuff. I'm sure there are similar aspects elsewhere. Trump admin is moving with alacrity to get the economy revved up in the very near term.

I would have like to have seen a lot more spending reductions, but this bill is an improvement over the status quo. We can always come back for more. The Medicaid work requirement is a huge win. And it's not like Trump is going to stop cutting agencies & workforce & restructuring. EX: Selling Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will generate cash and make it harder for future admins to engage in mischief. That is not reflected in the bill but will have positive impact on finances.

Seems very clear Trump is primarily planning to grow our way out of our current situation, rather than burn down Washington. That is quite a pragmatic plan, no matter how much his critics bloviate to the contrary.

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Well said.

whiterock said:

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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

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whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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“THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” has PASSED the House of Representatives! This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country! The Bill includes MASSIVE Tax CUTS, No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, Tax Deductions when…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 22, 2025

Ok. Someone please make the argument about how this is "the most significant piece of legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!"

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Big omnibus packages invariably do have lots to like (and hate). There is a lot to like in this bill. Here's a very short list, of just the last minute changes made to get the bill passed:
https://ijr.com/what-changed-overnight-key-revisions-to-the-big-beautiful-bill-explained/

Note there are aggressively short deadlines for investments to occur on the energy stuff. I'm sure there are similar aspects elsewhere. Trump admin is moving with alacrity to get the economy revved up in the very near term.

I would have like to have seen a lot more spending reductions, but this bill is an improvement over the status quo. We can always come back for more. The Medicaid work requirement is a huge win. And it's not like Trump is going to stop cutting agencies & workforce & restructuring. EX: Selling Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will generate cash and make it harder for future admins to engage in mischief. That is not reflected in the bill but will have positive impact on finances.

Seems very clear Trump is primarily planning to grow our way out of our current situation, rather than burn down Washington. That is quite a pragmatic plan, no matter how much his critics bloviate to the contrary.

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The drama club:
"Grrrr, Slow down, Mr. Trump"

Imagine seeing everything he's doing and still beeeching and moaning 99% of the time.

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go easy on them. They're conflicted. They are not necessarily opposed to Trump's end goals, they want them to be achieved quietly, incrementally, without anyone noticing. They want the big changes, but no fuss. Do not get partisan mud on their trousers. Totally practical plan, that.

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I'll let you be the nice guy {wink}

They say they want change but in practicality they want status quo. They truly are the peanut gallery. Trump needs to ignore them, because their paths all lead back to the status quo, do nothing while letting the middle class and American culture disappear.

"BUDOS said:
And where did you go to find the truth ?"

Assassin's response
"It's everywhere"

I'm fine with those. I am a bit surprised, somewhat pleasantly, that you also use those two when attempting to discern what is/isn't accurate/true.

While both China and the US do appear to exist in a somewhat unique symbiotic relationship, IMO, history seems to indicate that China is more likely to handle economic pain than the US; especially if that pain is caused by the US.
What is your opinion?

BUDOS said:

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"BUDOS said:
And where did you go to find the truth ?"

Assassin's response
"It's everywhere"

I'm fine with those. I am a bit surprised, somewhat pleasantly, that you also use those two when attempting to discern what is/isn't accurate/true.

While both China and the US do appear to exist in a somewhat unique symbiotic relationship, IMO, history seems to indicate that China is more likely to handle economic pain than the US; especially if that pain is caused by the US.
What is your opinion?

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China is definitely better equipped for that premise. They have been doing it to themselves for millennia. However, the OP was Porteroso saying that "Trump caved," which is rather bizarre. Whiterock said it best, paraphrasing 'we moved a little and China moved a little' letting China save face. That's big for the Chinese. But you have to watch them like a hawk, as their history shows you that they will go to extremes to work the 'sides' of the deal

boognish_bear said:

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I wonder if that is even possible. Assembled here maybe but made here…not so sure

Elon's confirms he is moving away from politics to accelerate GDP growth with humanoid robots. pic.twitter.com/bat41zqPsE

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 23, 2025

Outside of COVID and World War Two, there has never been a proposed budget that projected higher annual budget deficits as a percentage of GDP than the Big, Beautiful Bill. Of course, as with all prior Gov't projections, actual deficits will be much higher than what's projected.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 23, 2025

nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I wonder if that is even possible. Assembled here maybe but made here…not so sure

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Not possible in any reasonable time frame. We do not have the supply chain, workers. Additionally tooling up factories is a long process. Won't happen under Trump, period. Most of these CEO's are placating Trump until he's on the way out. IMO, Trump has NO business telling companies where and how to build their products. Apple has the leverage here

J.R. said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I wonder if that is even possible. Assembled here maybe but made here…not so sure

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Not possible in any reasonable time frame. We do not have the supply chain, workers. Additionally tooling up factories is a long process. Won't happen under Trump, period. Most of these CEO's are placating Trump until he's on the way out. IMO, Trump has NO business telling companies where and how to build their products. Apple has the leverage here

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Plus....with the "on again/off again" nature of these tariff proclamations we've seen so far how could they possibly plan such a momentous change to their business model with things changing week to week?

Well I personally know a lot of people who make under 50k who work tons of OT, this is help them out more than any other thing I can remember ever being passed.

Lets not even talk about Obama care who screwed over the working class, my insurance was tripled (as a federal…

— BnFL (@Bfrom916) May 23, 2025

HOLY CR*P 🚨 Democrats laundered SO MUCH MONEY before Donald Trump took office

In the 76 day period between Trump winning and Biden leaving office $93 billion was sent from the DOE, who GAVE IT AWAY WITH NO OVERSIGHT, TO ENTITIES WITH NO FINANCIALS

“The 76-day period you're… pic.twitter.com/onZaRkPNRn

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 23, 2025

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says tariffs are helping, not hurting Americans.

"They're not hurting, they're helping because they're creating jobs in America." pic.twitter.com/YCTCAho6m4

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 23, 2025

ICE officers arrested at least 10 migrants at Dallas immigration court this morning

All had their cases dismissed this morning. As they walked out of court, ICE officers arrested them pic.twitter.com/nS9WtpsoUV

— Aarón Torres (@AaronTorres_) May 23, 2025

boognish_bear said:

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J.R. said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I wonder if that is even possible. Assembled here maybe but made here…not so sure

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Not possible in any reasonable time frame. We do not have the supply chain, workers. Additionally tooling up factories is a long process. Won't happen under Trump, period. Most of these CEO's are placating Trump until he's on the way out. IMO, Trump has NO business telling companies where and how to build their products. Apple has the leverage here

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Plus....with the "on again/off again" nature of these tariff proclamations we've seen so far how could they possibly plan such a momentous change to their business model with things changing week to week

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correct. With all of Trump's knee jerks daily, CEO's and markets do not like uncertainty. Impossible to plan. Trump has NO idea what he is doing. As far as the best deal maker as he says, it is painfully obvious he has NO plan...NONE

whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Assassin said:

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BUDOS said:

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And where did you go to find the truth ?

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It's everywhere



https://www.fairobserver.com/economics/the-enigma-of-chinas-debt-crisis-explained/



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/09/business/economy/guangzhou-china-exports-tariffs.html

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China's economy has been struggling to recover since COVID. Worker protests have been on the rise for some time.

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China is an ancient culture with a mindset that they are the civilized and everyone else is something less. Yes, they think long term - in centuries - but that is not in any real sense an tremendous advantage. It's tends to lead to "just do nothing and it'll all work out....time will bring things back our way."...etc....and other platitudes to justify inaction. Yes, they plan in 10yr horizons, but the overriding lesson of the 20th century is that central planning does not work. As you note, their demonstrations have been rising since COVID (in no small part because of growing imbalances in their own system. Supply chains have started to trickle away from China organically (for a longish list of reasons). That make them more rather than less vulnerable to stochastic disruptions like sudden tariff increases. All of that works to our favor.

Immediate term conditions also favor us. China has no hope of landing enough deals to replace our markets. There are no other markets like ours....a quarter of the entire world GDP. They will have to build production for other things, other places,(which will not come close to replacing what they stand to lose from getting frozen out of our market). Those problems require solutions on a timeline of years bordering on decades. And those years will not be kind to China. It is for a log period of decline, for a long-list of reasons.

China never honors trade agreements anyway. In that sense it's irrelevant whether a trade agreement is reached or not. One could argue that they'd probably rather cut a deal to regain certainty of what the rules are, so they can figure out how to skirt them and also know what to expect from us. And while they're grappling with what to do about that (short term thinking is not their strength, anyway), Trump will keep using the bully pulpit to force corporate leadership to realize that it's just too risky to have much exposure to China.

Trump critics must, to some degree, build a case with a predicate that China is strong without problems while we are weak and full of problems.....that it is is we who should tread more carefully, not China. That is an inversion of reality. EACH of us have strengths and weaknesses. I'd rather play our hand than theirs.

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Agree that I like our hand much better than theirs. Primarily because they are so reliant on exports (are you coming around? lol). I fully acknowledge a whole host of problems that China has, which have been brewing for years. We have some weaknesses that China will expose, we just haven't been hit by them yet as they are lagging factors. I hope both can work out a reasoned solution to minimize the damage. When the world catches a cold, America gets sick too.

whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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“THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” has PASSED the House of Representatives! This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country! The Bill includes MASSIVE Tax CUTS, No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, Tax Deductions when…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 22, 2025

Ok. Someone please make the argument about how this is "the most significant piece of legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!"

---

Big omnibus packages invariably do have lots to like (and hate). There is a lot to like in this bill. Here's a very short list, of just the last minute changes made to get the bill passed:
https://ijr.com/what-changed-overnight-key-revisions-to-the-big-beautiful-bill-explained/

Note there are aggressively short deadlines for investments to occur on the energy stuff. I'm sure there are similar aspects elsewhere. Trump admin is moving with alacrity to get the economy revved up in the very near term.

I would have like to have seen a lot more spending reductions, but this bill is an improvement over the status quo. We can always come back for more. The Medicaid work requirement is a huge win. And it's not like Trump is going to stop cutting agencies & workforce & restructuring. EX: Selling Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will generate cash and make it harder for future admins to engage in mischief. That is not reflected in the bill but will have positive impact on finances.

Seems very clear Trump is primarily planning to grow our way out of our current situation, rather than burn down Washington. That is quite a pragmatic plan, no matter how much his critics bloviate to the contrary.

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That's great and I agree with some of the positives, and am disappointed in the lack of seriousness in spending cuts. But that wasn't what I asked. The man said this was one of the greatest pieces of legislation in our history. How can an ambitious, but somewhat run of the mill omnibus budget bill, be one of the greatest legislative pieces in our history? We've passed amendments, civil society changing bills, military establishing initiatives, war resolutions, entitlements (SS Medicare), and many others. I know Trump is huge on hyperbole, but c'mon now.

boognish_bear said:

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Picking winners and losers. Hooray freedom!

Bessent says focus is on ratio of debt to growth

FOX: This bill adds trillions to our debt. How is that acceptable to the administration?

BESSENT: You're referring to the CBO scoring I believe, which is DC-style scoring pic.twitter.com/HqdtSomS7U

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 23, 2025

boognish_bear said:

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Bessent says focus is on ratio of debt to growth

FOX: This bill adds trillions to our debt. How is that acceptable to the administration?

BESSENT: You're referring to the CBO scoring I believe, which is DC-style scoring pic.twitter.com/HqdtSomS7U

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 23, 2025

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Smart guy.

nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I wonder if that is even possible. Assembled here maybe but made here…not so sure

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Ironically it is still significantly cheaper producing it fully in India even with the additional tariff. The comparative advantage is a factor of 5-7 times per unit cost. And that doesn't take into account potential inputs that would carry other tariffs for U.S. based manufacturing, because as you said not every sub component could be made here.

Dems have simply become obstructionists. That's all they got

🚨BREAKING: A Clinton judge just blocked Trump's plan to reorganize 20 federal agencies.

The executive order aimed to overhaul the Executive Branch through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk.

THIS IS WHAT WE VOTED FOR pic.twitter.com/167QyBs5n3

— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) May 23, 2025

That pretty much seems to have been the case for awhile for whichever is the minority party, and is one of the causes for the out of control partisanship and increased misinformation which continues to accelerate.

J.R. said:

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boognish_bear said:

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J.R. said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I wonder if that is even possible. Assembled here maybe but made here…not so sure

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Not possible in any reasonable time frame. We do not have the supply chain, workers. Additionally tooling up factories is a long process. Won't happen under Trump, period. Most of these CEO's are placating Trump until he's on the way out. IMO, Trump has NO business telling companies where and how to build their products. Apple has the leverage here

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Plus....with the "on again/off again" nature of these tariff proclamations we've seen so far how could they possibly plan such a momentous change to their business model with things changing week to week

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correct. With all of Trump's knee jerks daily, CEO's and markets do not like uncertainty. Impossible to plan. Trump has NO idea what he is doing. As far as the best deal maker as he says, it is painfully obvious he has NO plan...NONE

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But DOGE is saving Billions every day. We have to be reducing the deficit.

Assassin said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Bessent says focus is on ratio of debt to growth

FOX: This bill adds trillions to our debt. How is that acceptable to the administration?

BESSENT: You're referring to the CBO scoring I believe, which is DC-style scoring pic.twitter.com/HqdtSomS7U

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 23, 2025

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Smart guy.

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he learned at the feet of your Anti-Christ Soros.

J.R. said:

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Assassin said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Bessent says focus is on ratio of debt to growth

FOX: This bill adds trillions to our debt. How is that acceptable to the administration?

BESSENT: You're referring to the CBO scoring I believe, which is DC-style scoring pic.twitter.com/HqdtSomS7U

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 23, 2025

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Smart guy.

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he learned at the feet of your Anti-Christ Soros.

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Was that right after Bessant helped Soros take down the British Pound?

⛽️🚙The Trump Effect: 

As we head into Memorial Day weekend, the national average price of gasoline is expected to be $3.08 on Memorial Day – down from the $3.58 average last year, according to GasBuddy.

Adjusted for inflation – that’s the second cheapest price for a gallon of… pic.twitter.com/CHCoSEDMk4

— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) May 23, 2025

BREAKING: President Trump’s approval rating is rising among Democrats, per Newsweek.

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) May 23, 2025

"OMG the Pentagon had a Christian prayer service. This is an attack on church-state separations!!!"

F*ck off pic.twitter.com/zqgVhFI8bj

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) May 23, 2025

J.R. said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING: GOP flips Miami-Dade County red by voter registration for the first time in history.

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) May 19, 2025

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That's crazy. We go there all the time (be there Thursday actually). Never would have guessed that.

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It has been coming for about 5 to 7 years. FLA is getting more red since COVID. Also, the CUban population is getting more sick of the free loaders. Cubans are very family, church and work oriented. The Communist Venezualans and others are a turn off. You get some pretty nasty public meetings down there. South of Port St Lucie is its own world....

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was in Miami a while back and did a really great food tour of Calle Ocho (Little Havana). At the end of the tour the guide took us to a statue that had all the US Presidents listed. She asked us which president was Not listed. It was JFK. She went on to say....I'm not really supposed to say this, but 95% of Cubans vote Republican because they have not forgotten how JFK sold them out. Found it interesting.

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JFK's failure at the Bay of Pigs led directly to the Missile Crisis, the closest we've ever been to nuclear Holocaust. There were other factors, but had he led better in April 1961 events probably would have taken a very different turn.

whiterock said:

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historian said:

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whiterock said:

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historian said:

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Quote:

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Unclear if we can get the changes we need without a recession. cutting $1T in federal deficit spending is ipso facto cutting $1t out of GDP.

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That's the wrong way to look at it: government spending adds nothing to the economy. The government is not productive, just the opposite. It is parasitic. Every penny the government spends must first be taken from those who are productive: the people. Reducing government spending thus freed up capital for business expansion, startups, new jobs, etc. It also reduces the amount the govt borrows, holds the promise of lower debt (if the cuts continue & the budget is balanced), and helps to stave off national bankruptcy.

Everything about less govt spending is good for the people and the economy.

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Not exactly. If they didn't spend it, taxpayers would. Certainly one could argue that government spending could be something other than "highest & best use" of the capital, but that's not always the case. Economies do need roads & bridges for commerce to flow. We do need to have secure title to personal & real property in order to make banking and investment function properly. Merchants and customers alike need to have proper weights & measures to make informed economic decisions. Etc...... So government spending itself is properly included in GDP. That is a major reason why politicians are so reluctant to cut government spending - it negatively impacts GDP.

the worst negative of all is wasteful deficit spending, which saddles the economy with public debt that does not generate as much tax base as private sector spending would have. so many examples of that......

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The economy benefits when consumers spend money, it is harmed when government does. This is almost always the case regardless of what consumers choose to spend their money on: whatever they buy will stimulate a segment of the economy and create jobs. The government might do some good with infrastructure, police, defense, and other reasonable expenditures--those that are the proper function of governments. But the federal government wastes billions on all kinds of superfluous stupidity that cannot be justified rationally. This is the kind of stuff that DOGE has been exposing. This kind of stuff not only harms the economy, but it causes all kinds of other damage as well. Then there is the rapidly growing national debt soon to be $39 trillion.

The top priority of Congress should be to bring this debt under control and to begin reducing it. That cannot happen until the budget is balanced first, and then maintains a surplus for several years (probably decades).

The reluctance of politicians to cut spending has very little to supposed negative outcomes. Their insane levels of spending over the years has had a far more damaging impact. No, they are primarily concerned about using our tax dollars to buy votes one way or another. They are self-centered buffoons with far too much power which most of them have no qualms about abusing.

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don't take it too far. Government spending for banking regulators isn't harmful (so long as its effective). Government spending for roads & bridges isn't harmful (so long as it done well & in reasonable timeframes). Many functions of government are in fact necessary for proper functions of markets. The weather service helps farmers optimize output. and on and on and on.

But you are correct that the kind of spending we're doing now is beyond "helpful." In so many areas it's intrusive. Best example is the Green New Deal nonsense - spending taxpayer money on things for which there is no intrinsic demand whatsoever, driving up the cost of energy with no ascertainable benefit.

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You are making my point: wasteful govt spending far surpasses that which is useful and necessary. If govt only spent our money on what was essential we would not have deficits or a $38 trillion debt. The economic & social benefits would go much further without all the fraud & waste, capital freed for productive uses (instead of parasitic govt), energy independence, less pollution, people becoming more productive, people learning to be more self reliant instead of expecting govt to fix everything, and much much more.

boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING: President Trump claims that he would have won California, New York, and Illinois if the U.S. had “honest elections.”

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) May 20, 2025

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I don't know if he would have won those states but the margin in each would have been much closer and almost certainly he would have won other states handily.

Assassin said:

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ALL Biden pardons from January 19th were Autopenned including, Fauci, all of the Bidens, the J6 committee, and Mark Miley.

Signed in the CITY OF WASHINGTON.

But on January 19, 2025, Joe Biden was physically in Charleston, South Carolina, before departing on his final official… pic.twitter.com/X4GiwZRbII

— Mila Joy (@MilaLovesJoe) May 20, 2025

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Let the indictments begin!

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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🔥 SAVAGE TRUMP: President Trump dims Oval Office lights, shows South Africa’s president videos of their leaders calling for KILLING white farmers.
pic.twitter.com/pJnMvyR1nB

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 21, 2025

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This was just amazing. Progressives won't like it, because deep down they believe that the whites should be killed in South Africa.

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Too many Progressives (fascists) want whites, Republicans, conservatives, Christians, etc here in America to die. Most are sane enough not to try killing people themselves but they celebrate when others do. The Luigi cult is an example.

nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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I wonder if that is even possible. Assembled here maybe but made here…not so sure

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We don't have the labor sills or plant capacity to handle much of it now. Will take time to develop that. Trump is using the bully pulpit to pressure Apple to "start" coming home.....to force them to make the decision to move a greater percentage of their supply chain inside the USA.

Apple has already announced it's moving US oriented production out of China and into India by the end of next year. That's a benefit to the US. But it would be an even bigger benefit if Apple does that as a part of a larger plan to move (say) half of that production home over the next 36-60 months. Even getting 10-20 percentage points more of the supply chain inside the US would be a huge benefit.

Apple has 3.5yrs more Trump do deal with. They can't just ignore it. They have to mitigate risks.