Trump's first 100 days

852,109 Views | 15114 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by boognish_bear
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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Regarding the bill, this administration's instincts have been excellent. I'm willing to give it a chance, since growth is a real and valid strategy.

Our monetary system is debt based. There is no paying it down as that will shrink the money supply,that is fact. That is the real reason no one advocates seriously for that. I was hoping we could tread water, but I'm good with giving the pro growth a try.
Assassin
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

Assassin said:

boognish_bear said:


I cant believe Musk believes the CBO. Nobody else does
I guess Musk is brilliant for SpaceX, Tesla, and others. Brilliant for DOGE. But an idiot for believing CBO.

Cherry pick much?

The Bill is a monstrosity. There is no way you can be serious about cutting the deficit, balancing the budget and passing this bill. It is a shell game. DOGE was never about reducing spending, that is how he sold it to you. It was about getting rid of programs he doesn't like, restrictions on businesses he wants and a vendetta against those he doesn't like.

It was not and is not about lowering spending, Trump has NEVER lowered spending in his life. It was what you and the others on this Board wanted to hear to get your support.
CBO is a joke, for anything other than political spin. It uses static calculations, arbitrary rules. For example, the Trump Tax cuts expire this year. For that reason, CBO rules require them to establish the reversion (higher) tax rates as the benchmark for 2025. So any bill passed in 2025 "extending" those rates or making them permanent is, by CBO definition, a tax cut (even though all we're doing is extending current tax rates.) and on and on and on....

Really soft ground you're fighting on here.


So, it won't add to the deficit?
Debatable. CBO is real, but not realistic. The two parties agreed upon CBO rules for how bills were to be scored, but the rules do not reflect reality. If properly done (and these do appear to be so), tax cuts typically do stimulate economic activity and generate greater revenues, but CBO rules require any tax cut (even extension of existing rates scheduled to expire) as a static loss of revenue with no calculation of dynamic impact. Same for regulatory reforms. They always do spur growth, yet they are not factored at all into the calculations. Since most of the expenses on illegal alien programs are not budgeted, it's not possible to estimate savings from obvious things like no longer putting them up in $500/night hotels in NYC. And on and on and on. So the OBBB will generate more revenues than the CBO projects, and it will save more $$$ than the CBO projects, which means the deficits will be lower. Not eliminated. LOWER.

The OBBB is a lot more than just a budget. It's the Trump agenda. It funds the priorities he ran on, specifically border enforcement. it also contains all of his economic policies. For parliamentary rules reasons, it does not contain the recissions on the things DOGE has identified to cut. They are being prepared in several separate bills, some of which have already been filed in the House.

Does the OBBB balance the budget? Nope.
Is balancing the budget in a single cycle a reasonable expectation? Nope
Is this budget an improvement over the baseline? Yep. It will halve the deficit over a ten year period (to the historical average)
Would I prefer to do more, faster? Yep.
Would I vote for the OBBB as a positive step in the right direction? Yep.
Would I vote for the OBBB as a positive step in the right direction, even though it's less than Id' prefer, and come back next week/month/year and work for more cuts & growth? Yep. That's what pragmatic people do.

Don't make perfect the enemy of the good. Trump has told us what the plan is - to grow our way back toward fiscal stability (not balance....) with DOGE cuts, plus spending cuts, plus additional revenues from 3-5% growth. The BBB is first & foremost an effort to get the package in place to stimulate the growth. take the win. Lock it in. Move on to the next battle.

It's an eminently reasonable plan that only the fringes could get terribly upset about.

The big variable is interest rates. Each 1-point cut reduces the deficit by $300b. (vs a 2025 deficit of $1.9T) That explains why Trump is throwing bricks at Powell...... A 3-point cut halves the current deficit.
What he said...
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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https://www.axios.com/2025/07/03/trump-immigration-ice-raids-restaurant-workers

Restaurants ask President Trump for "targeted relief" from immigration crackdown

The trade association representing U.S. restaurants is asking President Trump for "targeted relief" from his immigration crackdown.

Why it matters: The president recently signaled a willingness to cut some slack for farms and hotels, saying "our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them."

Driving the news: The National Restaurant Association sent a letter to Trump dated July 1 saying the industry also needs a break.

"As you recognize, the workforce challenges facing farms and hotels also extend to the restaurant industry," National Restaurant Association CEO Michelle Korsmo said in a letter co-signed by state hospitality associations and obtained by Axios.
"Restaurant operators, farms, and hotels rely on longtime, law-abiding workers in order to better serve our national food and hospitality supply chain."

Zoom in: The letter called for Trump to "partner with our industry to implement targeted workforce solutions" and "consider deferred action with work authorization on a select basis for long-serving employees who pass background checks, pay taxes, and meet rigorous vetting standards."

It would "provide continuity and workforce stability" for the 77% of restaurants that "struggle to hire and retain staff," the association said.

State of play: The administration recently resumed Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids on hotels and farms after a brief pause, according to NBC News.

But Trump told Fox News last week that he's developing "a temporary pass" for agricultural workers who pay taxes and don't commit crimes.

The White House had no immediate comment on the association's letter Thursday morning.

Assassin
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boognish_bear said:




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Assassin
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boognish_bear
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Assassin
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Assassin said:




I know Brittney Griner returned with a new appreciation for America after her time in Russia.
Assassin
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boognish_bear said:


That's exactly what I was hoping!
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boognish_bear
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Assassin
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Mike Johnson after Hakeem Jeffries 8 hour blovation

"It takes a lot longer to tell a lie, then spend one minute telling the truth"
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Jack Bauer
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boognish_bear said:



boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Assassin
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boognish_bear said:


So far, all these "predictors" have been waaaay off.

The bill is about to pass. 182-1 of the Republicans with 37 to go

That's Thomas Massie, the 1.
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william
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now that that nonsense is outta the way............

- el KKM

D!
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Redbrickbear
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Assassin
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As expected Rep Fitzpatriclk from Penn voted Nay with 216-2 for the Republicans. Only two NV's right now

Vote is 216-214 for the bill right now
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Assassin
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Redbrickbear
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Assassin said:




Assassin
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Assassin said:

As expected Rep Fitzpatriclk from Penn voted Nay with 216-2 for the Republicans. Only two NV's right now

Vote is 216-214 for the bill right now
Final vote 218/2 Reps to 212 for liberals. Trump will sign it tomorrow on our 249th birthday
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BUbearinARK
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Redbrickbear said:

Assassin said:





that doesn't look like her brother at all.
william
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woooooo!

218 > 214.....

- el KKM

D!
arbyscoin - the only crypto you can eat.
Assassin
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BUbearinARK said:

Redbrickbear said:

Assassin said:





that doesn't look like her brother at all.
She needed a token white man?
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Assassin
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william
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HONK!

Big Bill the Boisterous Bellicose Boy Bird w/ Bodacious Bountiful Bikin'd Buttocks approves the Bodacious Bulbous Beautiful Bill!!!
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EatMoreSalmon
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boognish_bear said:


Besides the obvious change in the value of a dollar, homes also got a lot bigger on average.

Average home size by decade:

  • 1920: 1,048 square feet
  • 1930: 1,129
  • 1940: 1,177
  • 1950: 983
  • 1960: 1,289
  • 1970: 1,500
  • 1980: 1,740
  • 1990: 2,080
  • 2000: 2,266
  • 2010: 2,392
  • 2014: 2,657

Jack Bauer
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nein51
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I was just going to say what happened is we got a lot more demanding about our stuff. Every kid "needs" their own room, every house has to be huge, every car has to have every option etc etc.

To the point we don't even offer the other options because no one buys them.
BylrFan
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boognish_bear said:


If he actually respected trump, he'd pull out of Ukraine instead of relying on North Korea for support.
boognish_bear
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BylrFan
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Harrison Bergeron said:

Assassin said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

Can anyone remember a better first six months for any president?
Definitely been the most fun! And the next six is gonna be even better.
Today was the cherry on top. Challenge anyone to name another president with a better first six months.

S&P and NASDAQ at record highs, gas prices lower than in years, inflation down, Iran cowed, imperial judiciary defeated, extremist opposition party one would expect to moderate chooses "hold my beer" and goes even more radical ...
Tarrifs go in effect July 9...
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