boognish_bear said:
typical neverTrump media spin. Expectations set so high as to create a strawman - "Trump failed because Putin has his number...."
Diplomacy is a very soft & fluffy art. There are talks about having talks. This summit was just the next installment of the process....the Saudi summit, the shuttle diplomacy, and now a head to head meeting. So in that sense, there is progress = peace talks continue, so there is a greater chance for peace than if there were no talks at all. There will be more shuttle diplomacy. There will be more meetings with allies. And they will occurr in a context. We're already seeing Ukrainian escalation (attacks on Russian oil infrastructure). If Russia continues to stall, there will be secondary sanctions that will hit hard. Russia knows this. They are trying to forestall them, to create time & get more battlefield gains (of yards & acres). That's why Putin requested this meeting. Ok, fine. Let them have the meeting. Use it to remind them whose got the biggest d.i.c.k. Hold out incentives. Check, and check. Trump checked the boxes.
From the outside looking in, I would advise Trump to move more quickly and firmly. If Russia perceives that we are trying not to destabilize the Russian state, they will be more aggressive.
If we do not actually put the Russian state at risk of a 1991 collapse, they are not going to cut a deal. The desire not to risk the 4th & 5th order effects of a Russian collapse is understandable. But are you more worried about protecting Russia, or deterring Russia? The real risk is that being too cautious will be perceived by Russia as softness. Russia must learn than westward advances of any distance at all invite existential risk.
The war in Ukraine will last another couple of years on the current trajectory, and the battle lines will not have changed much. Trump is trying to stop the spending on it, to get ready for China & Taiwan. My sense is that he's being too careful to get where he wants to get in the timeframe he wants.
